Bracketology 2023

[lovelax]

With the new format for limited regional rankings, if a team is not ranked as 1 of the 7 teams in a region, they will NOT get an at-large bid.

With 32 AQs 1 pool B team (Salisbury) and 13 at large bids, I see only 1 at-large bid "open".

Region 1 has 4 AQ and will likely see 6 Nescac teams for 10 total.
Region 2 has 3 AQs and I don't see a team getting at-large bid here.
Region 3 has 5 AQ and I see two at large for Liberty league and possibly 1 from SUNY league.
Region 4 has 6 AQ and AL bids for Centennial and MAC-Commonwealth...maybe 2 from Centennial.
Region 5 has 3 AQ and Salisbury as the only pool B and 1 AL from ODAC
Region 6 has 5 AQ and likely no AL bids.
Region 7 has 6 AQ and likely no AL bids.

if there are upsets in some AQ conferences the favorite may get in depending on a multitude of factors.

Unlike last year when the excluded Nescac #5-8 teams had seven losses, these teams will have better records. The Nescac teams only have 2 out-of conference-losses....the rest are in conference.

[laxfan22]

Where do we find regions?

[lovelax]

Google "NCAA womens div 3 lacrosse" which will give you the home page. Look under rankings.

[laxfan22]

So who might this impact?

[lax410]

With the new format for limited regional rankings, if a team is not ranked as 1 of the 7 teams in a region, they will NOT get an at-large bid.

With 32 AQs 1 pool B team (Salisbury) and 13 at large bids, I see only 1 at-large bid "open".

Region 1 has 4 AQ and will likely see 6 Nescac teams for 10 total.
Region 2 has 3 AQs and I don't see a team getting at-large bid here.
Region 3 has 5 AQ and I see two at large for Liberty league and possibly 1 from SUNY league.
Region 4 has 6 AQ and AL bids for Centennial and MAC-Commonwealth...maybe 2 from Centennial.
Region 5 has 3 AQ and Salisbury as the only pool B and 1 AL from ODAC
Region 6 has 5 AQ and likely no AL bids.
Region 7 has 6 AQ and likely no AL bids.

if there are upsets in some AQ conferences the favorite may get in depending on a multitude of factors.

Unlike last year when the excluded Nescac #5-8 teams had seven losses, these teams will have better records. The Nescac teams only have 2 out-of conference-losses....the rest are in conference.

I’m not quite following you. Where is the info on how AL bids are selected. Why would 6 NESCAC teams make it?

[lovelax]

The 2023 NCAA division 3 lacrosse championship manual sets forth the criteria for selection. I roughly used the recent IWLCA polls and strength of schedules to estimate AL bids.

[lax410]

AL predictions after the conference finals:

Wesleyan, Tufts, Gettysburg, Colby, Messiah, Kenyon, MIT, Amherst, Roanoke, Trinity, Cartland, Williams, Haverford

[lovelax]

MIT and Kenyon upsets in conference finals are not good news for some bubble teams. Your AL assessment is spot on. Williams or Amherst may be out but both are better than Kenyon IMO. Denison had a losing record but played a great OOC schedule which prepared them to win their conference finals. Kenyon not so much. I guess we will find out at 10:30......

[laxfan22]

I’ve said it vaguer but Kenyons metrics are absurdly good. That’s a decent team that would get destroyed against a good team. Denison had a losing record but to their credit they played really good teams all season. If they can do it, so can Kenyon

[lax410]

I wonder what Kenton’s strategy will be going forward in terms of scheduling. Their conference is not challenging, save for Denison, but they are willing to travel. The OOC games they selected this year were not particularly challenging (especially when compared to Denison).

[lax410]

MIT and Kenyon upsets in conference finals are not good news for some bubble teams. Your AL assessment is spot on. Williams or Amherst may be out but both are better than Kenyon IMO. Denison had a losing record but played a great OOC schedule which prepared them to win their conference finals. Kenyon not so much. I guess we will find out at 10:30......

OP said 13 AL bids. I could see Williams or Amherst left out given their records but then again who would take their place, Renesselar? Claremont? Neither are as good as Williams or Amherst.

[laxfan22]

Yea looks like they all get in. Catholic probably can’t point to any good wins and would be behind Kenyon imo. But to their credit they have losses to Salisbury, William Smith, F&M (by 1), Gettysburg, CNU. and W&L. The difference is Kenyon beat Chicago and Catholic lost to Chicago. But I think it’s fair to say Kenyon would have gotten throttled by that OOC scheduling

[laxfan22]

DePauw getting is a joke

[laxfan22]

Mount union????

[laxfan22]

Ncaa is a heck joke. An auto bid to a 5 loss depauw team. Who lost to Chicago by 21, Kenyon by 16 and 12, Denison by 7 and Ohio Wesleyan by 7? Over haverford, Amherst and Williams? Even Ithaca? And mount union? Just criminal.

Not to mention they create one bracket that is an absolute joke. FM can waltz into the final four playing backups.

[cltlax]

Ncaa is a heck joke. An auto bid to a 5 loss depauw team. Who lost to Chicago by 21, Kenyon by 16 and 12, Denison by 7 and Ohio Wesleyan by 7? Over haverford, Amherst and Williams? Even Ithaca? And mount union? Just criminal.

Not to mention they create one bracket that is an absolute joke. FM can waltz into the final four playing backups.

And then you have the murderers row that is the W&L, Gettysburg, Salisbury and York section...

[laxfan22]

Ncaa is making a mockery of the sport, I suppose to save a few dollars. Of course they could have done a few things - swap at John fisher with tufts or Wesleyan. No reason those 2 should be playing again that early. Swap WL and FM. WL deserved the better seed without question. And find a way to add another good team in that weak as Midwest/west bracket somehow. God forbid you pay a few scheckels to not screw over deserving teams.

[lax410]

Ncaa is making a mockery of the sport, I suppose to save a few dollars. Of course they could have done a few things - swap at John fisher with tufts or Wesleyan. No reason those 2 should be playing again that early. Swap WL and FM. WL deserved the better seed without question. And find a way to add another good team in that weak as Midwest/west bracket somehow. God forbid you pay a few scheckels to not screw over deserving teams.

It’s an insanely imbalanced bracket for sure.

The over emphasis of “stats” Kenyon has made them a top seed led to the absurd results here. On that side of the bracket you have (from the last coaches poll) the #10, 16, 17, 18, and 21st ranked teams battling for a final four spot. It’s dumb.

As are the AL bids to CNU, Mt Union and Depaw.

[lax410]

Also what’s the financial piece of it you mentioned??

[RocLaxFan]

any one know where are the regionals (May 20 and 21) are being played?