Cornell 2019

[VeryRustyRed]

-Given my long-time respect for Gerry Byrne's Notre Dame defenses, I was surprised at a few things, most notably their decision to double pole our middies much of the time. Every time I took notice, Petterson has a shortie on him. This guy is a top scorer in box lacrosse; he knows how to get an advantage over a ss. What were they thinking? Also, their slides were (typically) late or non-existent to Telesco.
-And on offense, as mentioned in my prior post, Cornell showed or slid exceedingly fast all game. And they rarely got burned by ND taking advantage of the strategy. I don't know whether it was the weather or what...
-My guess is that Coach Stevens told the players never let Costabile beat you one-on-one. At one point, the announcer even commented that a 2nd pole was sliding to him.
-Raz' health: I think it's telling that Tria started the game. In the past he could almost always (at least) create a 50/50 ball. Not so today and vs. Syracuse. 'Got pushed around. Note - I watched much of the Yale-Brown game. Brown's FOGO looked pretty good, despite losing the majority to Ierlan.

[faircornell]

Brown will certainly be a test, as will turning around fairly quickly and heading to Providence. This will be a test of putting back to back complete games together.

Go Red!

[laxfan1313]

Notre Dame highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFp_1mzqGAw

[RedIvy]

I think two important games to watch that could influence our chances of an at large bid are Towson Deleware and ND NC. I believe wins by Deleware and N.C. could give them both an edge for at large bids over the Big Red. Clearly we need to take care of business at Brown but could use some help with our at large bid resume.

[CU77]

A nice win for the Red on the road in tough conditions that keeps Cornell in the hunt for an at-large bid.

Root for ND to not only beat UNC next week, but also to win the ACC tourney!

[RedIvy]

A nice win for the Red on the road in tough conditions that keeps Cornell in the hunt for an at-large bid.

Root for ND to not only beat UNC next week, but also to win the ACC tourney!

If they win the ACC wouldn’t that likely take up another at large since ACC doesn’t get a conference automatic qualifier. I’m inclined to want ND to do well enough to strengthen our schedule but not well enough to take up an at large, loosing to Syracuse or Duke in ACC finals might do both.... I think Duke, Syracuse and Virginia would take an at large if ND wins ACC or not, ND would give the ACC a fourth. I defer to CU77 on things like this and just offering a counter argument.....

[CU77]

I’m inclined to want ND to do well enough to strengthen our schedule but not well enough to take up an at large

I think that's unlikely to be possible ...

[bearlaxfan]

Brown has a Tues game this week vs crosstown PC, who won for the first time ever against Brown last year (1-21 alltime). Bears will not be looking ahead, which will be a + for BR Saturday. Brown fogos have been decent against average competition. Despite the numbers, I won't call Cornell's fo unit below average because I will take into account the strength of competition they have faced. If Brown goes 60% Cornell will be in a struggle. BR's D seems down from last year, I would expect Bruno to approach double figure goals. Bear D is better than last year (hard not to be); do they face guard Teat again? How has Cornell handled it this year?

[RedIvy]

I’m inclined to want ND to do well enough to strengthen our schedule but not well enough to take up an at large

I think that's unlikely to be possible ...

Hmm, beat UNC to keep them out of ACC tournament and not cause further damage for ND and support our RPI, then lose in ACC to highly ranked team (Duke, UVA, SU). Considering our head to head with ND I think this keeps more spots open for Cornell than if ND won the ACC.

[JeremyCuse]

I’m inclined to want ND to do well enough to strengthen our schedule but not well enough to take up an at large

I think that's unlikely to be possible ...

Hmm, beat UNC to keep them out of ACC tournament and not cause further damage for ND and support our RPI, then lose in ACC to highly ranked team (Duke, UVA, SU). Considering our head to head with ND I think this keeps more spots open for Cornell than if ND won the ACC.

Every ACC team makes the tourney this year, there is a 4/5 game.

[RedIvy]

I’m inclined to want ND to do well enough to strengthen our schedule but not well enough to take up an at large

I think that's unlikely to be possible ...

Hmm, beat UNC to keep them out of ACC tournament and not cause further damage for ND and support our RPI, then lose in ACC to highly ranked team (Duke, UVA, SU). Considering our head to head with ND I think this keeps more spots open for Cornell than if ND won the ACC.

Every ACC team makes the tourney this year, there is a 4/5 game.

Thanks for that info, so likely ND and UNC play back to back games. I still think preferable for Big Red if ND defeats UNC (now twice) and fall in ACC semi final or finals to best increase Cornell opportunities. If ND wins ACC, 4 ACC teams will lock up spots. Unless Cornell wins ILT I think we are on the bubble and can use as many advantages for remining at large spots as possible, if ND wins ACC I’m confident there is one less available.

[semsox]

In Quint's Top 20 column this morning on IL, it looks like Duke vs. Notre Dame will meet in the ACC tourney regardless of the outcome of UNC/Notre Dame. Similarly, Syracuse/UNC is locked in as well.

[JeremyCuse]

I’m inclined to want ND to do well enough to strengthen our schedule but not well enough to take up an at large

I think that's unlikely to be possible ...

Hmm, beat UNC to keep them out of ACC tournament and not cause further damage for ND and support our RPI, then lose in ACC to highly ranked team (Duke, UVA, SU). Considering our head to head with ND I think this keeps more spots open for Cornell than if ND won the ACC.

Every ACC team makes the tourney this year, there is a 4/5 game.

Thanks for that info, so likely ND and UNC play back to back games. I still think preferable for Big Red if ND defeats UNC (now twice) and fall in ACC semi final or finals to best increase Cornell opportunities. If ND wins ACC, 4 ACC teams will lock up spots. Unless Cornell wins ILT I think we are on the bubble and can use as many advantages for remining at large spots as possible, if ND wins ACC I’m confident there is one less available.

As Semsox noted below it appears the matchups are locked in with SU vs UNC and Duke vs ND. That said the ACC tiebreakers appear a bit out of whack and no knows for sure what the exact pairings will look like as there is some ambiguity there.

[RedIvy]

Understood, thanks. Whatever the pairings may end up being I don’t think ND winning the ACC is the best outcome for Cornell.

[laxreference]

For what it's worth, if UNC beats ND in their reg. season final, their chance of getting in only goes from 6.4% to 9.3%. In scenarios where UNC goes WW then loss in the ACC Semis, they still only get in in 1% of the simulations. So they certainly aren't a bubble competitor to a Cornell team that racks up a few more wins but loses the ILT.

As for ND, here are all the scenarios where they do not win the ACC title and their corresponding chance of snagging an at-large:

LL - 36.6%
WL - 63.3%
LWL - 65.9%
WWL - 90.9%
LWWL - 96.7%
WWWL - 100.0%

Can't back this up with numbers exactly, but I would be shocked if the data doesn't say that Cornell isn't better off eliminating ND as a bubble-competitor vs hoping they win out to boost the resume.

[semsox]

I ultimately side with RedIvy, and would wager best case scenario for ND with respect to Cornell's chances is knocking off UNC next week, then bowing out to Duke in the ACC tournament. A win over Duke would be better than Cornell's best W, and I imagine would factor in heavily on the committee for at-large spots.

[RedIvy]

I ultimately side with RedIvy, and would wager best case scenario for ND with respect to Cornell's chances is knocking off UNC next week, then bowing out to Duke in the ACC tournament. A win over Duke would be better than Cornell's best W, and I imagine would factor in heavily on the committee for at-large spots.

100% agree. Upsets in other conference tournaments will be big as well.

I have an idea, just win the ILT (after first getting in).

[CU77]

Can't back this up with numbers exactly, but I would be shocked if the data doesn't say that Cornell isn't better off eliminating ND as a bubble-competitor vs hoping they win out to boost the resume.

In your simulations where Cornell gets an at-large bid (and not the Ivy auto bid), in what fraction does ND get in?

[faircornell]

I realize that this might be a little low brow for some folks, but Chayse Ierlan is up for IL Player of the Week. If you have a Twitter account, please consider voting for him. There are 19 hours left to vote.

[CU77]

Low brow? No way! No tweets from me though …

Chayse is already the Ivy Rookie of the Week:
https://cornellbigred.com/news/2019/4/1 ... -week.aspx