North Region NCAA Qualifers

[NE10 Insider]

The North has had some mix ups in the top 6-8 with a lot of interesting upsets making for a very jumbled top 6.
Lemoyne lost to Adelphi
Adelphi lost to Mercy
Mercy lost to Lemoyne
Mercyhurst lost to Lemoyne
St Anselm lost to Wilmington
Wilmington lost to Pace
Pace lost to St Anselm
How do you guys see the North NCAA playing out? What teams are in/out? What teams do you think should be in, but might not get considered? What are your predictions for North Final/ NCAA Final?

[RedFromMI]

I keep track using my KRACH numbers of positioning for the NCAAs.

Today's numbers - games through yesterday for the North region only:

Code: Select all

Rank	School			KRACH	RRWP	 W	 L	Region	SOS	SOSRank Change
 5	Adelphi			 4967.5	0.897	12	 1	N	 648	10	+6
 6	Mercy			 4871.1	0.896	12	 1	N	 635	11	--
 8	Le Moyne		 4496.2	0.891	13	 2	N	 873	 8	-5
14	Mercyhurst		  855.0	0.766	10	 3	N	 293	17	--
19	Pace			  503.1	0.714	11	 4	N	 201	25	-2
20	Saint Anselm		  488.7	0.711	10	 4	N	 213	23	+1
-----------------------------------------------------
21	Wilmington		  468.3	0.704	11	 4	N	 187	28	-6
22	Seton Hill		  383.2	0.685	10	 6	N	 239	21	+1
23	Bentley			  373.0	0.682	 8	 5	N	 244	20	+8
30	Roberts Wesleyan	  169.9	0.589	10	 4	N	  74	39	-6

These rankings over the last decade have proven to be fairly close to the actual list from the NCAAs, although my "seedings" might differ,

Some other rankings - here is the old LaxPower type rankings for NCAA qualifying probabilities:

Code: Select all

                                               NORTH
 
RNK TEAMNAME                 TOURN SEL   RNK  RNK  RNK  RNK  RNK  RNK       REG       TOTAL
                               PROB      W-L  W-L  RPI  W-L  SOS  SOS     W  L  T    W  L  T
                                         TOT  REG  TOT  >.5  TOT  REG
                                         [2]  [1]  [6]  [4]  [3]  [5]
 
  1 Adelphi                   100.00       2    1    8    3    1    9    12  1  0   13  1  0
  2 Le Moyne                  100.00       6    1    3    6   12    8    12  1  0   13  2  0
  3 Mercy                     100.00       3    3    9    2   27    3    11  1  0   12  1  0
  4 St Anselm                 100.00      16    8   15   10   22    1    10  4  0   10  4  0
  5 Mercyhurst                 99.80      10    4   13   10   31   10     8  1  0   10  3  0
  6 Seton Hill                 81.20      24    6   18   19   20    7     6  2  0   10  6  0
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 Wilmington DE              13.40      14    5   17   15   32   16    10  3  0   11  4  0
  8 Bentley                     5.60      27   11   20   31   18    2     8  5  0    8  5  0
  9 AIC                         0.00      74   29   67   49   53   15     1 14  0    1 14  0
 10 Alderson Broaddus           0.00      71   28   73   49   71   30     1  7  0    1 10  0

[NE10 Insider]

Very interesting statistics Red. Any thoughts on recent games vs early season games? Some teams have turned it on towards the end and some teams have fell off from where they were early

[D2fan]

My thoughts,

Top 5 are locked in

#6 Spot comes down to the GMAC Championship

If Seton Hill beats Mercyhurst they will be the #6 seed

If Mercyhurst wins, Pace is in.

[NE10 Insider]

Agreed not sure Pace will be competitive in the tournament with recent offensive production, but would be interesting to see them play mercyhurst. I dont think they have ever played against each other in program history.

[RedFromMI]

Agreed not sure Pace will be competitive in the tournament with recent offensive production, but would be interesting to see them play mercyhurst. I dont think they have ever played against each other in program history.

2009 Hurst beat Pace 14-3 March 17

https://hurstathletics.com/sports/2008/ ... 85020.aspx

[JBFortunato]

Forgive my ignorance but how many non-AQ spots are there for each region?

[D2fan]

Forgive my ignorance but how many non-AQ spots are there for each region?

All 12 NCAA spots are At Large Bids.

There are no AQs.

6 teams in the North region and 6 teams in the South region make it.

[NE10 Insider]

I think with Pace loss to bentley in the ne10 playoff we are going to see st anselm and wilmington in the 5 and 6 spot. If st anselm loses tomorrow it will shake things up and give Pace a potential in for the tournament. I think Seton Hill will be on the outside looking in unless they can upset hurst but that seems unlikely.

[RedFromMI]

Wilmington lost to Chestnut Hill recently, so I think that might knock them out.

[NE10 Insider]

Wilmington lost to Chestnut Hill recently, so I think that might knock them out.

and in their place? Seton Hill has terrible "best win" i.e. they havent beaten anyone of substance. Pace lost to bentley pretty convincingly. I just dont see a situation where wilmington at this moment in time doesnt make the tournament over those two. unless seton hill has a miracle and beats mercyhurst

[Laxguy22]

Hard to say Wilmington deserves to be in when they lost to CHC and Seton Hill beats CHC by 7.

SHU also has lost to #1 Tampa, #2 Mercy, #7 Indy, #8 Hurst & #14 FIT so I get they don’t have a quality win but Wilmington doesn't play that schedule either...

[RedFromMI]

Last week's regional rankings (out Wed, but based on games through Sunday 5/1/2022), showing record changes through this past Sunday:

North Record (In region record)
1) Le Moyne 11-1 (10-0) through Sunday: 13-2 (12-1)
2) Mercyhurst 9-2 (8-2) through Sunday: 10-3 (9-3)
3) Adelphi 11-0 (10-0) through Sunday: 12-1 (11-1)
4) Mercy 9-1 (9-1) through Sunday: 12-1 (12-1)
5) Pace 10-2 (10-2) through Sunday: 11-4 (11-4)
6) Wilmington 9-3 (8-2) through Sunday: 11-4 (10-3)
7) Seton Hill 8-5 (8-2) through Sunday: 10-6 (10-3)
8) St. Anslem 7-4 (7-4) through Sunday: 10-4 (10-4)

you might see in the next iteration something like: Adelphi, Le Moyne/Mercy, Hurst, and then you can pick from Wilmington, Pace, St. A...

[NE10 Insider]

Hard to say Wilmington deserves to be in when they lost to CHC and Seton Hill beats CHC by 7.

SHU also has lost to #1 Tampa, #2 Mercy, #7 Indy, #8 Hurst & #14 FIT so I get they don’t have a quality win but Wilmington doesn't play that schedule either...

So going in to next year every d2 coach should schedule only top 15 teams and go 0-15 to make the tournament? noted. Ill let my coaching pals know.

[D2fan]

Hard to say Wilmington deserves to be in when they lost to CHC and Seton Hill beats CHC by 7.

SHU also has lost to #1 Tampa, #2 Mercy, #7 Indy, #8 Hurst & #14 FIT so I get they don’t have a quality win but Wilmington doesn't play that schedule either...

So going in to next year every d2 coach should schedule only top 15 teams and go 0-15 to make the tournament? noted. Ill let my coaching pals know.

No, he did not say that.

What he's saying is playing a challenging schedule should not hurt a team in the selection process. Seton Hill's wins over Frostburg and Chestnut Hill clearly show they are a better team than Wilmington.

It's one of the reasons why I don't think many coaches would have a problem with Seton Hill making the playoffs. They could have made a cupcake schedule like Pace, and won 12-14 games, but they didn't.

2 top 15 opponents playing each other is good for Division II. It attracts more eyeballs to the division.

[Laxfan00]

Hard to say Wilmington deserves to be in when they lost to CHC and Seton Hill beats CHC by 7.

SHU also has lost to #1 Tampa, #2 Mercy, #7 Indy, #8 Hurst & #14 FIT so I get they don’t have a quality win but Wilmington doesn't play that schedule either...

So going in to next year every d2 coach should schedule only top 15 teams and go 0-15 to make the tournament? noted. Ill let my coaching pals know.

A lot of times the schedule is what is it. Look at Tampa for example. This year the SSC has had at least 3 ranked teams all year, thus boosting their strength of schedule and number of top 20 wins. But in years prior, the SSC has been weak and their conference schedule didn’t do them any favors. Just how the chips fall sometimes.

[vincecaputo25]

What are your guys thoughts on Pace? I really think they will be able to do some damage in the tournament.....if they can make it. What are their chances?

[NE10 Insider]

Hard to say Wilmington deserves to be in when they lost to CHC and Seton Hill beats CHC by 7.

SHU also has lost to #1 Tampa, #2 Mercy, #7 Indy, #8 Hurst & #14 FIT so I get they don’t have a quality win but Wilmington doesn't play that schedule either...

So going in to next year every d2 coach should schedule only top 15 teams and go 0-15 to make the tournament? noted. Ill let my coaching pals know.

A lot of times the schedule is what is it. Look at Tampa for example. This year the SSC has had at least 3 ranked teams all year, thus boosting their strength of schedule and number of top 20 wins. But in years prior, the SSC has been weak and their conference schedule didn’t do them any favors. Just how the chips fall sometimes.

You entirely missed the point. Maybe read the thread again and try to come up with something that makes sense pal

[NE10 Insider]

What are your guys thoughts on Pace? I really think they will be able to do some damage in the tournament.....if they can make it. What are their chances?

Depends if Casey is in or out. Clearly the offense crumbles without him

[NE10 Insider]

Hard to say Wilmington deserves to be in when they lost to CHC and Seton Hill beats CHC by 7.

SHU also has lost to #1 Tampa, #2 Mercy, #7 Indy, #8 Hurst & #14 FIT so I get they don’t have a quality win but Wilmington doesn't play that schedule either...

So going in to next year every d2 coach should schedule only top 15 teams and go 0-15 to make the tournament? noted. Ill let my coaching pals know.

No, he did not say that.

What he's saying is playing a challenging schedule should not hurt a team in the selection process. Seton Hill's wins over Frostburg and Chestnut Hill clearly show they are a better team than Wilmington.

It's one of the reasons why I don't think many coaches would have a problem with Seton Hill making the playoffs. They could have made a cupcake schedule like Pace, and won 12-14 games, but they didn't.

2 top 15 opponents playing each other is good for Division II. It attracts more eyeballs to the division.

When did Seton Hill beat anyone good though? They didnt. Chestnut hill is there best win. That is not Wilmingtons best win. Wilmington beat St Anselm. Seton Hill is 0 fer against competent teams AND lost to lewis LOL