2021 D2 Women National Championship Tournament

[Matnum PI]

D2 WOMEN: National Championships

These are the Best Upcoming Games (below).

https://fanlax.com/2021/05/09/d2-women- ... pionships/

[DMac]

13-1. Nope.
BS...no D II for me.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk ... r-BB1gAdMe

[Bart]

13-1. Nope.
BS...no D II for me.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk ... r-BB1gAdMe

Don't throw the entire division under the bus for an odd decision. There is some good lacrosse played here.

I will start by saying in my opinion Le Moyne should definitely be in the tournament. No If or buts about it, again in my opinion. They are a top team. I have been trying to look at the numbers since Sunday when the selections came out and I am hard pressed to really figure out why but I think I have it narrowed down. If you are looking to place "blame" it starts with the NE10 itself. Limiting the schools to only conference play and then splitting the conference in half did not help the Phin's. They were in a situation where there is no metric to measure against other than the NE10 and only half the NE10 itself. The SSC had the same problem and got the same result.

The criteria to generate the rank and RPI is a mathematicians delight but layman's nightmare. Far as I can tell it was the ability to play ooc games that put both Mercy and RW out in front. They both played OOC teams that were above .500 and won brining their Division OOC SOS up. This appears to be one of the nails in the Dolphins coffin. Bently upset the apple cart for the Phin's by beating Adelphi. But.........Bently's win % vs teams above or at .500 is .78 vs Le Moyne's at .875 (unless I made a mathematical error) so I do not get that metric. So in a nutshell, I still really do not understand what happened. Perhaps Red in MI can elucidate more.

I feel for the kids at Le Moyne. They were an excellent team. I have seen all four of the teams in question here play. They are all good teams and play good lacrosse but if I were to pick one in head to head matchups it would be Le Moyne. As heartbreaking it is for these kids it certainly gives the three invited to the tournament an exciting opportunity. I whish them good luck.

[RedFromMI]

13-1. Nope.
BS...no D II for me.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk ... r-BB1gAdMe

Don't throw the entire division under the bus for an odd decision. There is some good lacrosse played here.

I will start by saying in my opinion Le Moyne should definitely be in the tournament. No If or buts about it, again in my opinion. They are a top team. I have been trying to look at the numbers since Sunday when the selections came out and I am hard pressed to really figure out why but I think I have it narrowed down. If you are looking to place "blame" it starts with the NE10 itself. Limiting the schools to only conference play and then splitting the conference in half did not help the Phin's. They were in a situation where there is no metric to measure against other than the NE10 and only half the NE10 itself. The SSC had the same problem and got the same result.

The criteria to generate the rank and RPI is a mathematicians delight but layman's nightmare. Far as I can tell it was the ability to play ooc games that put both Mercy and RW out in front. They both played OOC teams that were above .500 and won brining their Division OOC SOS up. This appears to be one of the nails in the Dolphins coffin. Bently upset the apple cart for the Phin's by beating Adelphi. But.........Bently's win % vs teams above or at .500 is .78 vs Le Moyne's at .875 (unless I made a mathematical error) so I do not get that metric. So in a nutshell, I still really do not understand what happened. Perhaps Red in MI can elucidate more.

You have it correctly laid out - with no OOC games, you have nothing in head-to-head results for Le Moyne, and also in common opponents. So making the decision about them leaves out two important categories that are required to be considered by the rules of the selections. And this year, the NCAA wanted to use the numbers as the primary means of deciding - not anything else. (I happen to have known people involved in the selection process over the years and have at least a rudimentary understanding of how it works).

The Florida/SSC schools also played a very limited number of games rather than the larger number that was possible like the schools that could play OOC. That makes a difference in those calculations as well...

I feel for the kids at Le Moyne. They were an excellent team. I have seen all four of the teams in question here play. They are all good teams and play good lacrosse but if I were to pick one in head to head matchups it would be Le Moyne. As heartbreaking it is for these kids it certainly gives the three invited to the tournament an exciting opportunity. I whish them good luck.

[totc]

This reminds me of 2019 when Merrimack, which won the NE-10 Championship, was snubbed entirely. The team Merrimack beat, Adelphi, won the natty.

[Bart]

13-1. Nope.
BS...no D II for me.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk ... r-BB1gAdMe

Don't throw the entire division under the bus for an odd decision. There is some good lacrosse played here.

I will start by saying in my opinion Le Moyne should definitely be in the tournament. No If or buts about it, again in my opinion. They are a top team. I have been trying to look at the numbers since Sunday when the selections came out and I am hard pressed to really figure out why but I think I have it narrowed down. If you are looking to place "blame" it starts with the NE10 itself. Limiting the schools to only conference play and then splitting the conference in half did not help the Phin's. They were in a situation where there is no metric to measure against other than the NE10 and only half the NE10 itself. The SSC had the same problem and got the same result.

The criteria to generate the rank and RPI is a mathematicians delight but layman's nightmare. Far as I can tell it was the ability to play ooc games that put both Mercy and RW out in front. They both played OOC teams that were above .500 and won brining their Division OOC SOS up. This appears to be one of the nails in the Dolphins coffin. Bently upset the apple cart for the Phin's by beating Adelphi. But.........Bently's win % vs teams above or at .500 is .78 vs Le Moyne's at .875 (unless I made a mathematical error) so I do not get that metric. So in a nutshell, I still really do not understand what happened. Perhaps Red in MI can elucidate more.

You have it correctly laid out - with no OOC games, you have nothing in head-to-head results for Le Moyne, and also in common opponents. So making the decision about them leaves out two important categories that are required to be considered by the rules of the selections. And this year, the NCAA wanted to use the numbers as the primary means of deciding - not anything else. (I happen to have known people involved in the selection process over the years and have at least a rudimentary understanding of how it works).

The Florida/SSC schools also played a very limited number of games rather than the larger number that was possible like the schools that could play OOC. That makes a difference in those calculations as well...

I feel for the kids at Le Moyne. They were an excellent team. I have seen all four of the teams in question here play. They are all good teams and play good lacrosse but if I were to pick one in head to head matchups it would be Le Moyne. As heartbreaking it is for these kids it certainly gives the three invited to the tournament an exciting opportunity. I whish them good luck.

I appreciate the feedback. The head scratching continues. I get the numbers argument, to a point. The real difficulty I have not is if that is true what happened in the Atlantic. IF you look at the numbers posted from 5/11 it has Georgian Court as #3 and ESU as #4? The difference of RPI is 0.04 which is only slightly different than the difference in the east between 3 and 4 of 0.06. If this were the case then EUS would not have made the cut and Georgian Court would have. Now I know who I think the better team is in that comparison but if you are going to use the numbers, the numbers are what they are.

So it would appear that perhaps the greatest factor in all of this was the Division SOS (Weighted OWP-OOWP) which helped both ESU and Bently for the third spot and not playing an OOC did not hurt ESU while it hurt LeMoyne?

[RedFromMI]

In the Atlantic, you only have CACC and PSAC. In the East, only ECC and NE10. And the last published result includes all the games in the final season week, so the numbers can change enough to really move teams around. Le Moyne, in losing to Adelphi, who then lost to Bentley probably lost their footing on the #2 spot from that game alone. Mercy dropped to the #2 and RW took the top seed, while Bentley slipped into #3.

In the Atlantic Georgian Court just did not get enough of a bump beating Post and Jefferson while ESU beat Bloomsburg and then lost to clear #1 West Chester.

[Bart]

In the Atlantic, you only have CACC and PSAC. In the East, only ECC and NE10. And the last published result includes all the games in the final season week, so the numbers can change enough to really move teams around. Le Moyne, in losing to Adelphi, who then lost to Bentley probably lost their footing on the #2 spot from that game alone. Mercy dropped to the #2 and RW took the top seed, while Bentley slipped into #3.

In the Atlantic Georgian Court just did not get enough of a bump beating Post and Jefferson while ESU beat Bloomsburg and then lost to clear #1 West Chester.

Ahh, but according to the latest break down in the numbers, Georgian Court did get enough of a bump as their RPI was 0.631 vs 0.627 for ESU. Every other metric except Divisional SOS favored GC. So it really is not a numbers thing........

[RedFromMI]

In the Atlantic, you only have CACC and PSAC. In the East, only ECC and NE10. And the last published result includes all the games in the final season week, so the numbers can change enough to really move teams around. Le Moyne, in losing to Adelphi, who then lost to Bentley probably lost their footing on the #2 spot from that game alone. Mercy dropped to the #2 and RW took the top seed, while Bentley slipped into #3.

In the Atlantic Georgian Court just did not get enough of a bump beating Post and Jefferson while ESU beat Bloomsburg and then lost to clear #1 West Chester.

Ahh, but according to the latest break down in the numbers, Georgian Court did get enough of a bump as their RPI was 0.631 vs 0.627 for ESU. Every other metric except Divisional SOS favored GC. So it really is not a numbers thing........

That RPI number was for games played up through Sunday, May 2. The actual calculation used for the tourney was calculated on Sunday, May 9 after all the games for the regular season were complete. Different numbers, and that calculation is never shared beyond the committee generally.

[Bart]

In the Atlantic, you only have CACC and PSAC. In the East, only ECC and NE10. And the last published result includes all the games in the final season week, so the numbers can change enough to really move teams around. Le Moyne, in losing to Adelphi, who then lost to Bentley probably lost their footing on the #2 spot from that game alone. Mercy dropped to the #2 and RW took the top seed, while Bentley slipped into #3.

In the Atlantic Georgian Court just did not get enough of a bump beating Post and Jefferson while ESU beat Bloomsburg and then lost to clear #1 West Chester.

Ahh, but according to the latest break down in the numbers, Georgian Court did get enough of a bump as their RPI was 0.631 vs 0.627 for ESU. Every other metric except Divisional SOS favored GC. So it really is not a numbers thing........

That RPI number was for games played up through Sunday, May 2. The actual calculation used for the tourney was calculated on Sunday, May 9 after all the games for the regular season were complete. Different numbers, and that calculation is never shared beyond the committee generally.

This is what is at top of the page I have open.

ATLANTIC REGION
D-II Women's Lacrosse
Generated 05/11/2021 09:12 AM

For example GC is 12-2 in their record and that matches their schedule on web site. I believe it has to be the numbers they used.

[RedFromMI]

Let's look at ESU vs Georgian Court:

DII/Region record (same for both): GCU 12-2 (ranked #3 in region behind West Chester and Seton Hill), ESU 10-3 (tie with Jefferson for #4 spot).

Division SOS: ECU 0.579 (#2 in region behind Chestnut Hill), GCU 0.559 (#7 in region).

Results vs .500 or better DII teams: GCU 0.714 (#3 in region behind WCU, SH), ESU 0.571 (#4 in region)

Performance Indicator: GCU 15.643 (#3 in region), ESU 15.000 (#4)

Region RPI: GCU: 0.631 (#3), ESU: 0.627 (#4)

Missing categories on the chart:

Head-to-head results: non-existent for these two teams

Common opponents: Millersville (GCU 12-10 win, ESU 14-10 win), Kutztown (GCU 16-10 win, ESU 20-3 win)

That last item might well have made the difference, as otherwise GCU would have certainly edged out ESU.

[Bart]

Let's look at ESU vs Georgian Court:

DII/Region record (same for both): GCU 12-2 (ranked #3 in region behind West Chester and Seton Hill), ESU 10-3 (tie with Jefferson for #4 spot).

Division SOS: ECU 0.579 (#2 in region behind Chestnut Hill), GCU 0.559 (#7 in region).

Results vs .500 or better DII teams: GCU 0.714 (#3 in region behind WCU, SH), ESU 0.571 (#4 in region)

Performance Indicator: GCU 15.643 (#3 in region), ESU 15.000 (#4)

Region RPI: GCU: 0.631 (#3), ESU: 0.627 (#4)

Missing categories on the chart:

Head-to-head results: non-existent for these two teams

Common opponents: Millersville (GCU 12-10 win, ESU 14-10 win), Kutztown (GCU 16-10 win, ESU 20-3 win)

That last item might well have made the difference, as otherwise GCU would have certainly edged out ESU.

Thanks for this. To start GC's in region record is not 12-2, it is 12-0. Their two losses are to Mercy and they are in the East. How would that change things? Not saying that they got it wrong, I do not think they did here but they certainly did not go purely by the numbers. As for your common opponents, they are both wins.

You will also note if you look at Mercy in the East, their in Region record goes down to 9-2 as three of their wins came at the expense of CACC opponents. I wish I knew how to go about calculating some of the data with that record and not the 12-2. I also find it interesting that both Mercy and RW benefit greatly in their SOS by Roberts beating GVSU.

The data really did not differentiate anyone in the end.

[RedFromMI]

Those games with Mercy are actually in region. The regions for wlax are "artificial" - created just for that sport. What constitutes a region game is quite complicated, but suffice it to say one of the weird rules is that any adjacent state games or in state games are always in region (ESU in PA, Mercy in NY). There is a document that tells which games are in region and out of region that can be found by digging around on the ncaa.org website that has a nice table that shows for each state which other states constitute in region games. The coaches and ADs all know this, and make their schedules accordingly.

[Bart]

Those games with Mercy are actually in region. The regions for wlax are "artificial" - created just for that sport. What constitutes a region game is quite complicated, but suffice it to say one of the weird rules is that any adjacent state games or in state games are always in region (ESU in PA, Mercy in NY). There is a document that tells which games are in region and out of region that can be found by digging around on the ncaa.org website that has a nice table that shows for each state which other states constitute in region games. The coaches and ADs all know this, and make their schedules accordingly.

Thanks. I will go digging around to find that. A sane person would take in region to be the region you were in for the NCAA's but then again this is the NCAA.

[Bart]

Those games with Mercy are actually in region. The regions for wlax are "artificial" - created just for that sport. What constitutes a region game is quite complicated, but suffice it to say one of the weird rules is that any adjacent state games or in state games are always in region (ESU in PA, Mercy in NY). There is a document that tells which games are in region and out of region that can be found by digging around on the ncaa.org website that has a nice table that shows for each state which other states constitute in region games. The coaches and ADs all know this, and make their schedules accordingly.

Thanks. I will go digging around to find that. A sane person would take in region to be the region you were in for the NCAA's but then again this is the NCAA.

[leeatu]

Regional alignment for women's lax only. https://s3.amazonaws.com/ncaaorg/champi ... lModel.pdf

Additional points on in-region opponents. https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... ciples.pdf

It's really simple; all schools in your conference, all schools in your assigned region, all schools in your state and in bordering states (regardless of conference), and all schools with the same mission (HBCU, religious affiliation, etc.; regardless of location) count as in-region.

[RedFromMI]

Atlantic

ESU 18, Seton Hill 10

ESU against WCU Sunday

East

Mercy vs. Bentley not played (presumably COVID)

Bentley against Robert’s Wesleyan Sunday

Midwest

Lindenwood 14, Regis 9

Lindenwood against Indianapolis Sunday

South

Limestone 9, Mount Olive 8, OT

Limestone against Queens Sunday

[Matnum PI]

Today's Best Games
1- Queens #2 vs #5 Limestone 05/16/2021
2- Roberts Wesleyan #4 vs #6 Bentley 05/16/2021
3- West Chester #3 vs #12 East Stroudsburg 05/16/2021
4- UIndy #16 vs #1 Lindenwood 05/16/2021

[Matnum PI]

D2 WOMEN: Next Weekend’s Semifinals

These are next weekend’s Semifinal Games in order of Best Games:

https://fanlax.com/2021/05/16/d2-women- ... emifinals/

1 -Queens #2 vs #1 Lindenwood- 05/21/2021
2 -Roberts Wesleyan #3 vs #6 East Stroudsburg- 05/21/2021

[leeatu]

The semifinals are reseeded.

#1 Queens vs #4 East Stroudsburg
#2 Lindenwood vs #3 Roberts Wesleyan College