Lacrosse Analytics

[@inthe8m]

DAVIDSON!

Davidson has wins over:
Highpoint, Coastal Carolina, Mercer, Winthrop, Gardner Webb, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, VCU, and George Washington.

Losses to:

Duke and Cincinnati

Why are they ranked 20th?

Boy, we really hate Davidson being on here, haha.

Ok, if not them, who would you put ahead of them in the 20th spot? Davidson's 9-2 record gives them the 24th best SOR in the country. Their LaxElo rating puts them 18th. That's why they ended up 20th.

Marquette was #21, and they do have the superior resume in terms of wins and losses (their SOR is 9th), but the Golden Eagles are 38th in the LaxElo ratings, meaning they'd be projected to lose to the 37 teams ahead of them on a neutral field.

I thought your Lax-ELO rating is a cumulative number based on past years numbers? While, I believe you do factor it down a bit at the start of each season, Davidson seems to be benefiting greatly from consistently having a winning record (post-COVID) against what can best be described as a lot of crappy competition.

Based on your current Lax-ELO rating there are a ton of teams ranked below them that would beat Davidson fairly easily - UVA, Michigan, Notre Dame, Army, Penn State, UConn, Yale, Hopkins, Temple, Va Tech ...

I am a pro subscriber and I love data. But, Davidson consistently being in your Top 20 over multiple years just does not pass the smell test.

[njbill]

I agree, but I think I have identified the problem. Computers do not have a sense of smell.

[laxreference]

I thought your Lax-ELO rating is a cumulative number based on past years numbers? While, I believe you do factor it down a bit at the start of each season, Davidson seems to be benefiting greatly from consistently having a winning record (post-COVID) against what can best be described as a lot of crappy competition.

Based on your current Lax-ELO rating there are a ton of teams ranked below them that would beat Davidson fairly easily - UVA, Michigan, Notre Dame, Army, Penn State, UConn, Yale, Hopkins, Temple, Va Tech ...

I am a pro subscriber and I love data. But, Davidson consistently being in your Top 20 over multiple years just does not pass the smell test.

LaxElo is cumulative, although at this point, the impact of prior seasons is not huge since most teams have played 10 or more games.

As for Davidson specifically, it's tough to opine on how the LaxElo model has treated their results since it's a model that's designed to minimize errors in predicting winners across the entirety of Division I, not for a given team. I know that's not a satisfying answer, but the same criteria are applied to all teams, so at the very least I can say that there is no special Davidson clause that gives them a boost in LaxElo. It's very possible that the pattern of their results means that Davidson is consistenly overrated by LaxElo, but it's worth it in the service of higher accuracy across all teams.

As for the competition piece, LaxElo isn't going to credit them very much for beating crappy teams. You earn far fewer LaxElo points for beating Winthrop than if you beat an ACC team. Their SOS is 75th, so it's not like the model is using bad inputs for their opponents.

[laxreference]

And now, a 1st look at LR Bracketology on the DI Women's side. To qualify as a lock, you must have made the playoffs in every single simulation run. Likely-In means a 75% or higher chance of making it. Bubble teams must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large.

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Women_20230327.jpg (125.58 KiB) Viewed 1713 times

[laxreference]

Tuesday means Top EGA performances of the week that was. Here's the 10 best statistical performances of the past 7 days in DI WLAX.

weekly_ega_NCAAD1Women_20230328.jpg (153.32 KiB) Viewed 1639 times

[Lax101]

All certain to be All American candidates.

[laxreference]

These three had the most impressive statistical performances of the day. Here are your 3 Stars for Mar 28th in DI Women's lacrosse

daily_stars_20230328_NCAAD1Women.jpg (117.27 KiB) Viewed 1501 times

[laxreference]

Here are the 3 Stars for Mar 29th in DI WLAX

daily_stars_20230329_NCAAD1Women.jpg (119.61 KiB) Viewed 1416 times

[laxreference]

Here's the Top-30 Specialists Matrix for DI WLAX. Up and to the right is where you want to be. (The chart is too cluttered if every team is shown; so this is just the top-30 teams by LaxElo).

Top 3 Opponent-Adjusted Goalie units: North Carolina, Syracuse, Florida

Top 3 Opponent-Adjusted DC units: Loyola, Notre Dame, Duke

specialists_matrix_NCAAD1Women_20230330_topElo.jpg (83.6 KiB) Viewed 1389 times

[laxlaxlax]

Hello @laxreference

Quick question on your RPI ranking. It says it uses the NCAA methodology for RPI and SOS - is this an exact science?

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

Just looking at a few slight mis-matches at the moment which adds context to the IWLCA rankings (although appreciate it will change over the next few weeks)

Michigan
IWLCA ranking #15
LaxRef RPI #20
LaxRef SOS #12

Yale
IWLCA ranking #14
LaxRef RPI #22
LaxRef SOS #37

Clemson
IWLCA ranking #22
LaxRef RPI #30
LaxRef SOS #39

[laxreference]

These three had the most impressive statistical performances of the day. Here are your 3 Stars for Mar 30th in DI Women's lacrosse

daily_stars_20230330_NCAAD1Women.jpg (115.4 KiB) Viewed 1245 times

[laxreference]

Hello @laxreference

Quick question on your RPI ranking. It says it uses the NCAA methodology for RPI and SOS - is this an exact science?

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

Just looking at a few slight mis-matches at the moment which adds context to the IWLCA rankings (although appreciate it will change over the next few weeks)

Michigan
IWLCA ranking #15
LaxRef RPI #20
LaxRef SOS #12

Yale
IWLCA ranking #14
LaxRef RPI #22
LaxRef SOS #37

Clemson
IWLCA ranking #22
LaxRef RPI #30
LaxRef SOS #39

Can you clarify your question? When you say mis-matches, do you just mean that the IWLCA has a team ranked higher than their RPI or SOS?

As for the methodology, it is meant to be the exact same calculation as the NCAA will go through to generate the RPI. So yes, I think to answer your question, it is an exact science as far as calculating the RPI and NCAA SOS ranking.

[laxreference]

Here's the LaxElo Top-30 #EfficiencyMatrix for DI WLAX. Up and to the right is where you want to be.

Top 3 Opponent-Adjusted Defenses: Denver, James Madison, North Carolina

Top 3 Opponent-Adjusted Offenses: Northwestern, Syracuse, North Carolina

efficiency_matrix_NCAAD1Women_20230331_topElo.jpg (84.35 KiB) Viewed 1233 times

[laxlaxlax]

Hello @laxreference

Quick question on your RPI ranking. It says it uses the NCAA methodology for RPI and SOS - is this an exact science?

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

Just looking at a few slight mis-matches at the moment which adds context to the IWLCA rankings (although appreciate it will change over the next few weeks)

Michigan
IWLCA ranking #15
LaxRef RPI #20
LaxRef SOS #12

Yale
IWLCA ranking #14
LaxRef RPI #22
LaxRef SOS #37

Clemson
IWLCA ranking #22
LaxRef RPI #30
LaxRef SOS #39

Can you clarify your question? When you say mis-matches, do you just mean that the IWLCA has a team ranked higher than their RPI or SOS?

As for the methodology, it is meant to be the exact same calculation as the NCAA will go through to generate the RPI. So yes, I think to answer your question, it is an exact science as far as calculating the RPI and NCAA SOS ranking.

Yep, exactly what I meant. Understandable since the IWLCA ranking is based on voting but I think it’s just interesting to see the difference when you look at the RPI data.

Appreciate the clarification!

[PhanLax99]

Hello @laxreference

Quick question on your RPI ranking. It says it uses the NCAA methodology for RPI and SOS - is this an exact science?

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

Just looking at a few slight mis-matches at the moment which adds context to the IWLCA rankings (although appreciate it will change over the next few weeks)

Michigan
IWLCA ranking #15
LaxRef RPI #20
LaxRef SOS #12

Yale
IWLCA ranking #14
LaxRef RPI #22
LaxRef SOS #37

Clemson
IWLCA ranking #22
LaxRef RPI #30
LaxRef SOS #39

Can you clarify your question? When you say mis-matches, do you just mean that the IWLCA has a team ranked higher than their RPI or SOS?

As for the methodology, it is meant to be the exact same calculation as the NCAA will go through to generate the RPI. So yes, I think to answer your question, it is an exact science as far as calculating the RPI and NCAA SOS ranking.

Yep, exactly what I meant. Understandable since the IWLCA ranking is based on voting but I think it’s just interesting to see the difference when you look at the RPI data.

Appreciate the clarification!

Great question. Sometimes RPI makes no sense to me and I wish I could figure out a way to understand it better. I look at a team like Army who is having a fairytale season (young too so hopefully it will be sustained because lacrosse is better when Army/Navy are better). Obviously undefeated but their two best wins are Rutgers (who is no longer ranked and best win is Jacksonville) and Jacksonville (who lost to Rutgers and best win is a Stanford team that lost to Colorado). Army plays in the patriot league and plays the likes of BU, Colgate, Bucknell, Lafayette, Holy Cross who are obviously having tough seasons. How is their RPI so strong? Their OOC includes UNH, Siena, and Marist (not exactly heavy hitters. Just looking for some insight!

Thanks in advance!

[Dr. Tact]

Army plays in the patriot league and plays the likes of BU, Colgate, Bucknell, Lafayette, Holy Cross who are obviously having tough seasons. How is their RPI so strong? Their OOC includes UNH, Siena, and Marist (not exactly heavy hitters. Just looking for some insight!

Thanks in advance!

They get a boost after PL play by Loyola playing Army and all those other teams.

[laxreference]

Great question. Sometimes RPI makes no sense to me and I wish I could figure out a way to understand it better. I look at a team like Army who is having a fairytale season (young too so hopefully it will be sustained because lacrosse is better when Army/Navy are better). Obviously undefeated but their two best wins are Rutgers (who is no longer ranked and best win is Jacksonville) and Jacksonville (who lost to Rutgers and best win is a Stanford team that lost to Colorado). Army plays in the patriot league and plays the likes of BU, Colgate, Bucknell, Lafayette, Holy Cross who are obviously having tough seasons. How is their RPI so strong? Their OOC includes UNH, Siena, and Marist (not exactly heavy hitters. Just looking for some insight!

Thanks in advance!

So one thing about RPI is that it's only based on games played-to-date, so future games against bad teams aren't factoring into the Army RPI at this point. And in fact, the most likely Selection Sunday RPI for Army is 20th, so their PL schedule is likely to drag them down a bit.

And you mention their schedule not having been especially strong so far. You are right there. Their opponents' combined winning percentage is just 46%, which is 78th nationally. That said, their opponents' opponents' winning percentage, which is 25% of the formula, is 33rd. That's quite a bit better and part of why they can stay in the top-15.

If you want to see how each team ranks for the three different RPI factors, the full RPI rankings are here.

[laxreference]

Here is how the DI WLAX computer rankings ended the weekend

Moving Up: Maryland, UMass, Richmond, Navy

In: Notre Dame, Marquette, Mercer

Moving Down: Virginia, Yale, USC, Boston College

Out: Michigan, Penn State, Davidson

lacrossereference_rankings_20230403_NCAAD1Women.jpg (114.06 KiB) Viewed 951 times

[laxreference]

In the most recent simulation, here's how the bids projected for each conference in DI WLAX

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Women_20230403.jpg (125.25 KiB) Viewed 912 times

[laxreference]

Just a reminder that the RPI will be updated at this link every 5 minutes for the rest of the season. As soon as the games end, you can see the impact on the standings.