Lacrosse Analytics

[laxreference]

I used my Lax-ELO algorithm to calculate the current top teams in D1 Women's lacrosse. The top-5, as of the end of the shortened '20 season, looks like this (season change in parentheses):


North Carolina - 1999 (+237)
Richmond - 1905 (+202)
Loyola - 1900 (+174)
Maryland - 1875 (-24)
Denver - 1846 (+71)
Stony Brook - 1843 (+30)
Syracuse - 1825 (+193)
Notre Dame - 1819 (+149)
UMass - 1796 (+116)
James Madison - 1791 (+95)


Here is the full ranking.

[laxreference]

My goal is to have the live win probability pages up and running for all 5 of the D1 WLAX games on the schedule today.

- Jacksonville vs High Point
- Furman vs East Carolina
- Duke vs Davidson
- Old Dominion vs VCU
- Virginia Tech vs Liberty

[Cletus]

I utterly loathe and detest analytics—in all sports. Is that too strong? Then I guess I'm being mealy-mouthed. Whenever and wherever I see analytics in sports I get sick to my stomach and want to vomit all over every computer algorithm software product (whatever) ever developed for a week. Analytics has ruined baseball--and in every sport this wretched new fad has crept into it brings its foul killing influence. It seeks to kill the pure human element and replace it by what the percentages prove to be the best course, taking all the thought and instinct and reaction time, etc, out of the game. Richmond number 2 overall!! STOPPPPP!!!!! I roll my eyes at that so violently that my optic nerves rip loose from my brain. I'd flush the whole kit and kaboodle right down the $%@*&! toilet if I was the Sports Czar. Disgusting--all of it.

[laxreference]

Here are the 4 game pages for the WLAX games today. Already off and running with Navy and GMU

- George Mason vs Navy
- Florida vs Louisville
- Radford vs Richmond
- Towson vs Mount St Mary's

[laxreference]

Each week, I'm going to put together a list of the top individual performances of the past 7 days. The rankings are based on the individual expected-goals-added (EGA) score for each player in each game. If nothing else, this is generally a good way to surface some impressive players from some not-as-visible teams (although this week, an NU star took the top spot).

The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Izzy Scane (NW) ended up in the top slot after a career day against OSU. Her total stat line was worth a grand total of 9.29 EGA. And she was joined by her teammate in the #4 slot too!

The rest of the top-10 looked like this:

Monica BORZILLO (CIN) - 8.33 EGA
MEGAN MENZUBER (MARQ) - 7.01 EGA
Lauren Gilbert (NW) - 6.33 EGA
Gianna NEW (DAV) - 6.20 EGA
Ashley BRITTON (HPU) - 6.08 EGA
CASSIDY SPILIS (RU) - 6.03 EGA
Sophia Donovan (USC) - 5.81 EGA
Kristin O'Neill (PSU) - 5.80 EGA
LYDIA FOUST (MARQ) - 5.61 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210216.png (35.86 KiB) Viewed 6749 times

[laxreference]

7 games still on for today. UNC and Florida kick things off at noon. Here is the full list of the win probability links (they'll be preview pages until the games actually start up).

- Florida vs North Carolina
- St. Bonaventure vs Colgate
- Virginia vs Richmond
- Oregon vs San Diego State
- East Carolina vs Davidson
- UMBC vs Towson
- Fresno State vs Kent State

[laxreference]

Ok, here is the forum-appropriate top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Talen Francis snuck in under the date cutoff yesterday with a big 7.72 EGA game for Gardner Webb against Wofford. Francis is another example of a player who's role in her respective offense has seemed to blow up over the COVID off-season. In 2019 and 2020, she accounted for roughly 11% of the team's contributions. Against Wofford, she was 20% of the team.

Here is the rest of the top-10 this week:

Liza Hernandez (OSU) - 7.64 EGA
Cassidy Spilis (RU) - 7.48 EGA
Sam Rippley (DAV) - 7.48 EGA
Carley Adams (ASU) - 7.21 EGA
Alyssa Parrella (HOF) - 7.20 EGA
Sondra Dickey (LEH) - 7.03 EGA
Sydney Skalstad (FSU) - 7.02 EGA
Karson Harris (DREX) - 7.00 EGA
Keriann Mctavish (VCU) - 6.49 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210223.png (36.33 KiB) Viewed 6349 times

[laxreference]

Here's the links for the full slate of D1 WLAX games today. USC and BC just getting started...

- USC vs Boston College
- Northwestern vs Johns Hopkins
- Gardner-Webb vs Akron
- Ohio State vs Rutgers
- Villanova vs Temple
- Michigan vs Maryland
- High Point vs James Madison
- UConn vs UMass Lowell
- Duke vs North Carolina
- UC Davis vs California

[laxreference]

Here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Belle Martire (WM) posted the top line with a 10.43 EGA day against ODU. She has had a strange year so far. In the Tribe's 1 win (over ODU), she scored 8 goals on 12 shots. In their 2 losses, she has averaged just 1.5 shots and scored just 2 goals. I get it against Duke (top 20 defense), but Richmond is the 78th ranked defense. Either W&M needs to find a way to get her the ball when opposing defense try to clamp down on her OR W&M needs someone else to step up.

And here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Karson Harris (DREX) - 10.18 EGA
Charlotte North (BC) - 9.44 EGA
Ali Baiocco (STAN) - 9.41 EGA
Izzy Scane (NW) - 8.37 EGA
Erin Kerstetter (WAG) - 8.09 EGA
Hannah Leubecker (MD) - 7.85 EGA
Karson Harris (DREX) - 7.81 EGA
Talen Francis (WEBB) - 7.77 EGA
Katie Comerford (NOVA) - 7.66 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210302.png (32.64 KiB) Viewed 6249 times

[8meterPA]

Here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Belle Martire (WM) posted the top line with a 10.43 EGA day against ODU. She has had a strange year so far. In the Tribe's 1 win (over ODU), she scored 8 goals on 12 shots. In their 2 losses, she has averaged just 1.5 shots and scored just 2 goals. I get it against Duke (top 20 defense), but Richmond is the 78th ranked defense. Either W&M needs to find a way to get her the ball when opposing defense try to clamp down on her OR W&M needs someone else to step up.

it's due to faceguarding. She is a really nice player and after going off on ODU, other teams started face guarding her and unfortunately there are not a lot of other offensive weapons that W&M possess to take pressure off of her.

And here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Karson Harris (DREX) - 10.18 EGA
Charlotte North (BC) - 9.44 EGA
Ali Baiocco (STAN) - 9.41 EGA
Izzy Scane (NW) - 8.37 EGA
Erin Kerstetter (WAG) - 8.09 EGA
Hannah Leubecker (MD) - 7.85 EGA
Karson Harris (DREX) - 7.81 EGA
Talen Francis (WEBB) - 7.77 EGA
Katie Comerford (NOVA) - 7.66 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210302.png

[laxreference]

The Friday slate is off and running. 9 games today by my count:

- Marquette vs Central Michigan
- Rutgers vs Michigan
- Georgetown vs Delaware
- Youngstown State vs Akron
- Coastal Carolina vs Wofford
- UC Davis vs San Diego State
- Johns Hopkins vs Ohio State
- Stony Brook vs UMBC
- California vs Fresno State

[laxreference]

Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Boston College vs North Carolina
- Louisville vs Virginia
- Canisius vs Siena
- Robert Morris vs Notre Dame
- American vs Loyola
- Jacksonville vs East Carolina
- Quinnipiac vs Fairfield
- Saint Francis vs Merrimack
- Sacred Heart vs LIU
- Syracuse vs Duke
- Florida vs Stetson
- Lehigh vs La Salle
- George Mason vs Radford
- Kennesaw State vs Winthrop
- UMass Lowell vs Binghamton
- Wagner vs Central Conn
- George Washington vs Old Dominion
- William and Mary vs Longwood
- Holy Cross vs Lafayette
- New Hampshire vs Albany

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Siena Gore (KSU) had the top stat line with a final total of 10.70 EGA. KSU edged out Winthrop in this one, but honestly, the defense has been the story so far for KSU this year. On an opp-adjusted basis, their defensive efficiency has been 5 points better than in '20. Regardless though, they don't eek out this win without the big day from Gore.


And here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Maddie Howe (ND) - 7.94 EGA
Maddie Myers (UCD) - 7.92 EGA
Ava Vasile (UVM) - 7.77 EGA
Ashley Britton (HPU) - 7.74 EGA
Dana Joss (LWU) - 7.39 EGA
Mary Soures (SIE) - 7.30 EGA
Belle Martire (WM) - 6.80 EGA
Kasey Dorney (WAG) - 6.70 EGA
Ashley Britton (HPU) - 6.44 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210308.png (31.64 KiB) Viewed 6060 times

[laxreference]

7 games on the docket today.

- Louisville vs Central Michigan
- Maryland vs Johns Hopkins
- San Diego State vs Denver
- Canisius vs Quinnipiac
- Oregon vs Colorado
- Arizona State vs Stanford
- USC vs California

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Charlotte North (BC) stole the show with some wild highlights and a 10.20 EGA stat line against UVA.

And here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Alyssa Parrella (HOF) - 10.01 EGA
Erin Kerstetter (WAG) - 8.64 EGA
Emma Vinall (AMU) - 8.43 EGA
Lauren Gilbert (NW) - 8.19 EGA
Marissa Gore (KSU) - 8.11 EGA
Courtney Renehan (UMBC) - 7.56 EGA
Katia Carnevale (LEH) - 7.41 EGA
Alexis Kiefer (AKR) - 7.30 EGA
Erin Kerstetter (WAG) - 7.30 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210315.png (33.87 KiB) Viewed 5970 times

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Belle Martire (WM) took the top slot (again) with a whopping 9.16 EGA result against Campbell. She continues the roller-coaster season that she's been having; one game up, one game down, same as the Tribe's W/L mark.


And here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Izzy Scane (NW) - 8.37 EGA
Madeline Seims (WAG) - 8.22 EGA
Sydney Watson (UCONN) - 8.02 EGA
Sondra Dickey (LEH) - 7.58 EGA
Ashley Britton (HPU) - 7.51 EGA
Charlotte North (BC) - 7.44 EGA
Maddie Myers (UCD) - 7.31 EGA
Shannon Kavanagh (FL) - 6.96 EGA
Hanna Hilcoff (ORE) - 6.93 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210323.png (35.18 KiB) Viewed 5913 times

[laxreference]

Today's list of Live Box and Win Probability Links

- Maryland vs Northwestern
- Navy vs Army
- Fairfield vs Canisius
- Bucknell vs Lehigh
- Holy Cross vs Boston U
- Furman vs Campbell
- New Hampshire vs UMass Lowell
- Mercer vs North Carolina
- Mount St Mary's vs Bryant
- Towson vs Delaware
- Robert Morris vs Central Michigan
- Wagner vs Sacred Heart
- UMBC vs Binghamton
- Merrimack vs Saint Francis
- Detroit Mercy vs Akron
- Central Conn vs LIU
- Coastal Carolina vs San Diego State
- Colgate vs Lafayette
- Niagara vs Manhattan
- Radford vs William and Mary
- Virginia Tech vs Syracuse
- Vermont vs Albany

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Siena Gore (KSU) put up a 12.90 EGA line and is now the only player this season to have two games with more than 10 EGA.

Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Izzy Liquori (UML) - 7.99 EGA
Alexis Kiefer (AKR) - 7.97 EGA
Gabby Fornia (VANDY) - 7.19 EGA
Maddie McDaniel (USC) - 7.08 EGA
Stephanie Kelly (SJOE) - 6.95 EGA
Eliza Soutter (COL) - 6.88 EGA
Emma Vinall (AMU) - 6.73 EGA
Sarah Lubnow (VT) - 6.65 EGA
Erica Skowron (AMU) - 6.60 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

PlayerGame_visualization_d1w_20210330.png (35.21 KiB) Viewed 5778 times

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Natalie Karlen (CMU), she of the 10.26 EGA stat line, grabbed the top slot this week. No, Kent State does not have a good defense, but Karlen's 2021 season has been impressive generally. She's shooting 49%, which is a career high.

Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Ally Kennedy (STNY) - 8.78 EGA
Elisabeth Ralph (WOF) - 7.94 EGA
Siena Gore (KSU) - 7.84 EGA
Charlotte North (BC) - 7.64 EGA
Casey Harkins (AMU) - 7.19 EGA
Juliana George (VCU) - 7.18 EGA
Jay Browne (STAN) - 6.87 EGA
Karson Harris (DREX) - 6.19 EGA
Sadie Grozier (COLO) - 6.16 EGA

Here is the infographic in case you want the visual view:

EySxUOQXEAEn_0S.png (60.24 KiB) Viewed 5671 times

[laxreference]

Here are the statistical previews for all the WLAX games on the schedule today:

- Notre Dame vs Boston College
- UMBC vs Vermont
- Lehigh vs Lafayette
- Virginia Tech vs Duke
- Wagner vs Mount St Mary's
- Army vs Boston U
- Bryant vs Sacred Heart
- LIU vs Saint Francis
- Campbell vs Presbyterian
- Merrimack vs Central Conn
- Robert Morris vs Akron
- Detroit Mercy vs Youngstown State
- Gardner-Webb vs Longwood
- Colgate vs Navy
- Fresno State vs San Diego State
- Radford vs High Point
- UC Davis vs Oregon