Is a 2021 season going to happen?

D1 Mens Lacrosse
wgdsr
Posts: 9549
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 32269
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
steel_hop
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

pcowlax wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am For a therapeutic, not a vaccine, to allow a return to normal it would have to be so effective as to change the mindset of the millions who have internalized this as some epochal threat to civilization. It would have to be something that anyone who gets it can just pop a few pills and be over it. This is most certainly NOT how the medical field evaluate successful treatment and the severity/risk of illness but any return to normal will be driven by the behaviors and beliefs of the population at large, not my doctors or data. All that is, of course, lamentable but true.
And all you have to do is look at this response to see why the above is true. People have generally gone of the deep end and have a huge mispreception of risk based on anecdotal stories promoted in the press to drive clicks. If the numbers are believed, the virus has infected upwards of 50 million Americans - based on the CDCs 10 infections for every confirmed infection. With 50 million cases, there are always going to be bad outcomes. That is just basic statistics. Doesn't make it tragic, just makes it reality. No one would click on a link that says - 80 year old died from COVID but COVID may cause long term issues but lacks any peer reviewed study absolutely drives links.
bearlaxfan wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:03 pm Therapeutic treatment for the main disease effects is certainly improving, but what we are learning at the same time about unanticipated cardio/pulmonary/vascular and mental dysfunction from cov19 (temp? permanent? treatable? we don't know yet) even among young people (ATHLETES TOO) should mean the only acceptable 'herd immunity' must come via vaccine(s).
In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple; and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity…. Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay
steel_hop
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

sorry a bunch of double posts.
Last edited by steel_hop on Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
steel_hop
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

sorry a bunch of double posts.
Last edited by steel_hop on Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
steel_hop
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

sorry a bunch of double posts.
Last edited by steel_hop on Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
steel_hop
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

sorry a bunch of double posts.
Last edited by steel_hop on Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
FMUBart
Posts: 974
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:42 pm
Location: Savannah, Ga

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by FMUBart »

We've been going to lax tournaments the last 4 weeks. Parents wear masks--where they can't effectively social distance--and we have all survived. If you're in the high-risk pool, take precautions. Quarantining healthy people is ridiculous. This has turned into a political argument. Now we are talking about the "number of new cases" yet few are showing symptoms.
User avatar
socalref
Posts: 111
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:33 am

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by socalref »

Our tuition was due last week and at this point my son's school is still a mix on online and in person classes. Primarily at the discretion of the teacher. So far, that has not changed. Classes start 08/24.

We had to sign his 1 year lease with his housemates so he's going to be living off campus at school regardless at this point. We leave Sunday so he can start his mandated quarantine as we're coming from a "hot" state.

They've had multiple team conference / zoom calls to discuss the plans as they are now. Sounds like fall lacrosse will be a glorified version of crossfit. No weight room or gym access so things will be modified to accommodate. Practice will mostly be broken out by position to help maintain distancing. In theory, the boys could come out in great shape but it will be interesting to see how rusty they are lax wise in the spring.

This will most likely be a train wreck regardless. We'll all have to watch fall and winter sports for an indication of what we're in for.
wgdsr
Posts: 9549
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
respectfully, i don't think this is true at all. it may be true often when we have the time.

1976 swine flu --- case in april, then 45 million vaccinated starting in october, even though threat was nowhere near what was expected at first.
2009 swine -- doc b this spring was flouting how it was an unbelievable record time to develop a new vaccine inside a year.
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 32269
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
respectfully, i don't think this is true at all. it may be true often when we have the time.

1976 swine flu --- case in april, then 45 million vaccinated starting in october, even though threat was nowhere near what was expected at first.
2009 swine -- doc b this spring was flouting how it was an unbelievable record time to develop a new vaccine inside a year.
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
http://content.time.com/time/health/art ... 25,00.html

The sooner the better but hopefully it’s safe and effective.
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
jersey shore lax
Posts: 310
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:34 am

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by jersey shore lax »

Drcthru wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:14 pm
Reddogg wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:15 pm
Seahawk wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 5:39 pm I don’t see young healthy people being prioritized for a vaccine so I don’t think an athletes only on campus model will work. Very pessimistic about lax in 2021 absent a major change in personal behavior ie masks social distancing which is driving hot spots. That said, let’s see if football and basketball can be even partially successful.
Masks and social distancing are not the issue or the answer. The failure to accept or follow science and data is the problem. Young people should not even be a candidate for the vaccine.
The vid has relatively no impact on them. The virus is seasonal and reaches resistance at approximately 20 percent. closing schools and isolating the young is the opposite of what we should be doing. If there is no lax, it will be due to fear and loathing not because of the Vid.

Having said that, I put the odds of a 2021 lax season at 60-40.
Your degrees and/or extensive experiences in medicine, epidemiology, infectious disease and virology are???
how can you question someone who notes the virus is seasonal?
wgdsr
Posts: 9549
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
respectfully, i don't think this is true at all. it may be true often when we have the time.

1976 swine flu --- case in april, then 45 million vaccinated starting in october, even though threat was nowhere near what was expected at first.
2009 swine -- doc b this spring was flouting how it was an unbelievable record time to develop a new vaccine inside a year.
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
http://content.time.com/time/health/art ... 25,00.html

The sooner the better but hopefully it’s safe and effective.
not 100% sure why you linked the article but i agree on the comment!
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 32269
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:53 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
respectfully, i don't think this is true at all. it may be true often when we have the time.

1976 swine flu --- case in april, then 45 million vaccinated starting in october, even though threat was nowhere near what was expected at first.
2009 swine -- doc b this spring was flouting how it was an unbelievable record time to develop a new vaccine inside a year.
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
http://content.time.com/time/health/art ... 25,00.html

The sooner the better but hopefully it’s safe and effective.
not 100% sure why you linked the article but i agree on the comment!
Just more data is all. I believe their has already been some groundwork done on swine flu and one of those vaccines had some problems. More testing is better than less but it’s always risk reward. Fine line here as the economy and people’s health don’t always go hand in hand.
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
wgdsr
Posts: 9549
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:01 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:53 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
respectfully, i don't think this is true at all. it may be true often when we have the time.

1976 swine flu --- case in april, then 45 million vaccinated starting in october, even though threat was nowhere near what was expected at first.
2009 swine -- doc b this spring was flouting how it was an unbelievable record time to develop a new vaccine inside a year.
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
http://content.time.com/time/health/art ... 25,00.html

The sooner the better but hopefully it’s safe and effective.
not 100% sure why you linked the article but i agree on the comment!
Just more data is all. I believe their has already been some groundwork done on swine flu and one of those vaccines had some problems. More testing is better than less but it’s always risk reward. Fine line here as the economy and people’s health don’t always go hand in hand.
groundwork does not equal human trials in the tens of thousands and doesn't equate one swine flu with another.
just as the first covid doesn't with this one.
1976 vacc. had one in 100,000 excess on GBS and 1+ in a million resulting in death (53 of 45 million). we are now closing on 500 per million, and adding to it every day. when they vaccinated in 76, the large threat of losing maybe a million had largely passed. then politics maybe came into it:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-ne ... 180961994/
i'm assuming they had groundwork between 1919 and 1976 as well.

1976 was 44 years and trillions of dollars and millions of smart people ago. let's hope that can beat the politicians, always a tough opponent.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 32269
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:14 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:01 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:53 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:41 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:08 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:45 pm
HooDat wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:37 am
44WeWantMore wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:20 am
DMac wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:09 am Would any of you have any reservations about sending your kids down to get in line for that vaccination (I would...am not an anti vaxer, but I'm not willing to be a guinea pig either)?
One framework for thinking about it at the end of this post: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... -idea.html
After a discussion of how to think about it on average, then possible different answer for those at high-risk.
Wouldn't dream of sending my kids - all evidence says they don't need it unless they have some other condition. Given my general health, I am not rushing to get a vaccine either
absolutely i'd send them, dmac. unless you're talking about the russian vaccine, whatever wins out is going to have 10s of thousands of participants in 3rd stage trials.

personally not a big flu vaccination person, though wife has had kids/herself doing it annually all the way up.
Most vaccines are tested for years to determine the long term impact. Here we won’t have that data. No way you can squeeze long term impact into 4 or 5 months unless you have a time machine.
i understand that. how do you get the data? there's also 100s of thousands of people willing to go through the trials sight unseen. and tens of thousands/hundreds for other vaccines.
and flu is redeveloped every year. on similar platforms maybe annually, but still introduced to any individual who may have an issue.

is anyone going to wait 4-5 years for the data? if sooner, that person is just making it on a different timeline.

it's a decision everyone gets to make on their own. at least i hope that's what it will be.
I am just pointing out that studying long term impact of vaccines has ALWAYS been part of the process. With this vaccine, we won’t know until people start presenting. In layman’s term, it’s cutting corners.
respectfully, i don't think this is true at all. it may be true often when we have the time.

1976 swine flu --- case in april, then 45 million vaccinated starting in october, even though threat was nowhere near what was expected at first.
2009 swine -- doc b this spring was flouting how it was an unbelievable record time to develop a new vaccine inside a year.
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
http://content.time.com/time/health/art ... 25,00.html

The sooner the better but hopefully it’s safe and effective.
not 100% sure why you linked the article but i agree on the comment!
Just more data is all. I believe their has already been some groundwork done on swine flu and one of those vaccines had some problems. More testing is better than less but it’s always risk reward. Fine line here as the economy and people’s health don’t always go hand in hand.
groundwork does not equal human trials in the tens of thousands and doesn't equate one swine flu with another.
just as the first covid doesn't with this one.
1976 vacc. had one in 100,000 excess on GBS and 1+ in a million resulting in death (53 of 45 million). we are now closing on 500 per million, and adding to it every day. when they vaccinated in 76, the large threat of losing maybe a million had largely passed. then politics maybe came into it:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-ne ... 180961994/
i'm assuming they had groundwork between 1919 and 1976 as well.

1976 was 44 years and trillions of dollars and millions of smart people ago. let's hope that can beat the politicians, always a tough opponent.
I know. I have a client in phase 3. Keeping my fingers crossed.
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
pcowlax
Posts: 1703
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:16 am

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by pcowlax »

I apologize for the length of this but there were a lot of vaccine posts. Swine flu vaccine is not really relevant in terms of the time frame and safety of developing COVID vaccine (and you probably meant 68 not 76 for past "swine flu"). There have been influenza vaccines since the 40s. There is very little difference year to year in the basics of the circulating influenza viruses. They are numerous, falling into one of the sub types of influenza A or B. They are distinguished by the minor difference in their hemagglutinin and neuraminidase surface proteins. The viral strain is named based on the specific one of these that it has, hence H1N1 or H3N2, etc. In most cases, antibodies against one do not provide significant immunity against another strain though some have partial protection which can reduce the severity of infection. Most strains arise in Asia over the summer. Usually, 1 or 2 end up being the dominant strains that spread around the world in a given year. ID folks and pharma study the strains in the summer/fall and tries to predict which will be the dominant ones. The annual flu vaccine protects again H1N1, H3N2 and 2 other influenza Bs. It takes months to create a global supply of doses. Therefore they have to put their chips down and start manufacturing well before the dominant strains for that year have fully declared themselves. Sometimes the guess (it is obviously more than a guess but by no means a sure thing) will be wrong and one of the dominant strains will not be in that year's vaccine. That will be a "bad year" for the flu and people will gripe how the flu vaccine doesn't work. How bad it is will depend on the virulence of the uncovered strain. The "swine flu" of 2009 have a very unique H1N1 subtype with little cross-immunity. By the time a specific monovalent vaccine to it was made it had already spread and caused much morbidity/mortality. There was however nothing special about the process of developing a vaccine to it. Coming back to COVID, to make a flu vaccine vs a different strain is extremely easy now that there is such an accumulated knowledge of the virus and an infrastructure. It still takes a long time to manufacture it but there is no need for efficacy trials or safety trials, they use the same vehicles and the safety/dosing/population idiosyncrasies are well know. It is meaningless to talk about how fast a "swine flu" vaccine was made, it is just another influenza, same process as the year before and after. There have not been any routine coronavirus vaccines (primarily because they are usually so mild). This is all from scratch and at an unthinkable pace due to modern molecular techniques. There are numerous short cuts being taken, being encouraged to be taken. That is fine and understandable and they are not going to roll out a shot when people start anaphylaxing in the office. There will however be no data on long-term issues (and yes, with a new vaccine, initial Phase 4 or follow-on trials can last for years before it hits the market). It will most likely be up to everyone to make their own decisions (most likely, there will be interesting legal battles regarding industries trying to mandate it I am sure) as to the risks and benefits of getting it. I myself will be required to get it and I would do so regardless but it should be understood in its context.
steel_hop
Posts: 690
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
Salk worked on his polio vaccine for 7 years before it was ready.
wgdsr
Posts: 9549
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

steel_hop wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:12 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:31 pm
even polio, not a raging pandemic -- salk had it tested on just a couple pittsburgh hospitals and his family (after lots of monkeys), but then went to an initial trial of 1.8 million, many of them kids, in spring of 54 and it was declared safe and effective and went nationwide in early 55. this was with a brand new killed virus approach.

those are just the few i looked up. always is an absolute term. we all make decisions on cost benefit. be informed, and make the best choice for you.
Salk worked on his polio vaccine for 7 years before it was ready.
working on it is different than putting it in live humans.
renault
Posts: 105
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:51 am

Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by renault »

hofpride wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:47 am *CUOMO SAYS ALL SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN N.Y. CAN RE-OPEN
The DNC's internal polling must not be so great.
Post Reply

Return to “D1 MENS LACROSSE”