ggait wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:03 pm
Here's what Giroir said yesterday. I think he's totally right.
Testing is not our #1 issue right now. Testing is not how the Euros got their numbers under control. They've done fewer tests than us -- but no problems because they've NEEDED fewer tests than us. Testing matters the most BEFORE the break out (February) or AFTER the fire is contained (hopefully September). Testing does not put out the forest fire.
So, you know, there's no black or white answer here, but in the very early parts of an outbreak or in the very late waning parts, or in selective times like a meat packing, contact tracing could be very effective. When you have a widespread, multi-focal outbreak, where many people are asymptomatic, testing and tracing are of limited utility versus public health policy measures like mask wearing, like closing indoor crowded spaces. So, yes, contact tracing is important, but it's much less important right now than the public policy mitigation measures. Once the virus gets down to very low levels again, then testing and contact tracing become much more important. Where we are right now with the widespread, multi-focal, across many states, just like many other countries, the solution was the mitigation steps, not the contact tracing.
I read his comments to be focused on testing AND contact tracing, that is, doing the two together. I agree with him that once all of the horses are out of the barn, as is the case now, contact tracing is a waste of time. I don’t read his remarks, however, to say we shouldn’t be testing.
I agree testing is not THE most important solution to the problem now. And I agree that the European countries that have been successful did not get there through testing but rather through behavior modification.
But we have to throw everything we have at this virus. That includes testing. And behavior modification of course. Since we in this country are so pathetically bad at behavior modification, we have to continue to fire any and all arrows we have in our quiver. Including testing.
Testing gives us information. We test our air. We test our water. We can and should test ourselves to find out who has the virus. I think it is infinitely easier to get someone to quarantine who has tested positive than it is to get the general populace to social distance, wear masks, and not engage in knuckleheaded behavior.
Hopefully one of the first things Biden will do if he is elected is really, really ramp up testing.
