NESCAC

[SouthieLax]

C. My statement, in response to yours about RI being the deepest R, is that RIII is stronger than RI. The fact that the “gap isn’t huge” between #3 RI and #6 RIII helps you see this (I hope).

False (as usual). If only every Region I team could have just played Christopher Newport (#2 in Region 3) this year, it would have been win after win. Or Swarthmore (#3 in Region 3), or Gettysburg (#5 Region 3).

Bottom line Region 1 team are 5-1 against Region 3. Babson or Endicott would have had little problem with a team like Christopher Newport. Just look at Williams.

[BigMoose9]

C. My statement, in response to yours about RI being the deepest R, is that RIII is stronger than RI. The fact that the “gap isn’t huge” between #3 RI and #6 RIII helps you see this (I hope).

False (as usual). If only every Region I team could have just played Christopher Newport (#2 in Region 3) this year, it would have been win after win. Or Swarthmore (#3 in Region 3), or Gettysburg (#5 Region 3).

Bottom line Region 1 team are 5-1 against Region 3. Babson or Endicott would have had little problem with a team like Christopher Newport. Just look at Williams.

To say Endicott and Babson would have had “little problem” with teams in Region 3 such as CNU and Swarthmore is just a silly statement. I’ve watched all of these teams play and it would be a close game if not Region 3 teams winning by 2-3 goals. Let’s hope we see some of these matchups come tournament time.

[ToeDipper78]

Bowdoin is the last team to get in from the NESCAC if Tufts win the tournament if they even get in. The order as I see it is Tufts, Wes, Amherst, and then Bowdoin. If Williams, Trinity, or Hamilton win the tournament, they have no shot. Amherst has much more quality wins beating both RPI and Swathmore. The only quality win for Bowdoin this year is Amherst. While you could argue that Middlebury and Williams are quality wins, I don't see the committee viewing it like that. On too the NESCAC tournament. Should be an exciting one for sure.

Seconded

[WoodStick]

When do the lines come out for this weekend’s quarterfinal action.

[SaltCounty]

My best guess at the weekend.

Hamilton @ Tufts - Everyone is headed to Medford next week.
Trinity @ Wesleyan - It's been a good April for the Bants, but Wesleyan wins big on the grass.
Williams @ Bowdoin - Bowdoin ends their skid at home, ready for a run.
Amherst @ Midd - Almost 2 months later, Amherst is the better team and gets a rematch with Tufts.

As for the others...

- Disappointing year for Conn... feels like a missed opportunity & not sure where it goes from here
- A lot to be optimistic about at Colby with Coach Bernhardt... they may be headed back to the JT days
- Too much hype around a team with 4 wins in 2 years; the best being an OT escape from Emerson... next year is make or break at Bates

[RamsFan]

The "RamLine"

Ham @ Tufts(-6.5)
Trin @ Wes(-5)
Wil @ Bow(-1)
Am(-1.5) @ Midd

[pcowlax]

The "RamLine"

Ham @ Tufts(-6.5)
Trin @ Wes(-5)
Wil @ Bow(-1)
Am(-1.5) @ Midd

With those lines, I'll take Tufts, Wes, Bowdoin and Amherst. Toughest call is the last one. I have no idea what to expect from Midd. If it was at Amherst, I would take them -4. At Midd, who knows? They did not look good vs William and Amherst is better than Williams but strange things can happen come playoff time.

[HereForIt]

The "RamLine"

Ham @ Tufts(-6.5)
Trin @ Wes(-5)
Wil @ Bow(-1)
Am(-1.5) @ Midd

Tufts (-6.5) - Self explanatory. Side note: as a self-aware Tufts hater, I think just edging out a few tight games (Williams / Amherst / Bowdoin) actually helps this team rather than hurts. Credit to whoever had said earlier they were the Miami Dolphins of the NESCAC earlier in the year, but I think the tight games (even a a loss to Wesleyan) strengthens this younger and maybe more inexperienced than previous Tufts team.

Trinity (+5) - I think 5 is a big spread, and Trinity has to be .800+ as a dog against the spread in NESCAC games, especially later in the season. Question for my NESCAC lacrosse historians: When’s the last time Trinity played in the Bird Cage?

Bowdoin (-2.5, Alternate Spread) - Should be higher. Both of these teams really impressed me earlier in the year, but have been through their own skids.

Amherst (-1.5) - Admittedly, I am least confident in this bet. Watched their game earlier in the year, and it seemed that Midd was dominant physically and looked far and away the better team, yet missed expectations mid year. At the same time, Amherst only scoring 6 goals on Wednesday is a head scratcher, regardless of opponent. IMO, depends who shows up for both sides.

[The12lov3]

The "RamLine"

Ham @ Tufts(-6.5)
Trin @ Wes(-5)
Wil @ Bow(-1)
Am(-1.5) @ Midd

Tufts (-6.5) - Self explanatory. Side note: as a self-aware Tufts hater, I think just edging out a few tight games (Williams / Amherst / Bowdoin) actually helps this team rather than hurts. Credit to whoever had said earlier they were the Miami Dolphins of the NESCAC earlier in the year, but I think the tight games (even a a loss to Wesleyan) strengthens this younger and maybe more inexperienced than previous Tufts team.

Trinity (+5) - I think 5 is a big spread, and Trinity has to be .800+ as a dog against the spread in NESCAC games, especially later in the season. Question for my NESCAC lacrosse historians: When’s the last time Trinity played in the Bird Cage?

Bowdoin (-2.5, Alternate Spread) - Should be higher. Both of these teams really impressed me earlier in the year, but have been through their own skids.

Amherst (-1.5) - Admittedly, I am least confident in this bet. Watched their game earlier in the year, and it seemed that Midd was dominant physically and looked far and away the better team, yet missed expectations mid year. At the same time, Amherst only scoring 6 goals on Wednesday is a head scratcher, regardless of opponent. IMO, depends who shows up for both sides.

I think the close game thing is spot on and not only with Tufts but with all teams. A win is a win and closer games teach kids how to deal with pressure during the grind. Good point on that one. I like Williams over Bowden and I think Amherst beats up on Middlebury to avenge the early season loss.

[Laxguy456]

My best guess at the weekend.

Hamilton @ Tufts - Everyone is headed to Medford next week.
Trinity @ Wesleyan - It's been a good April for the Bants, but Wesleyan wins big on the grass.
Williams @ Bowdoin - Bowdoin ends their skid at home, ready for a run.
Amherst @ Midd - Almost 2 months later, Amherst is the better team and gets a rematch with Tufts.

As for the others...

- Disappointing year for Conn... feels like a missed opportunity & not sure where it goes from here
- A lot to be optimistic about at Colby with Coach Bernhardt... they may be headed back to the JT days
- Too much hype around a team with 4 wins in 2 years; the best being an OT escape from Emerson... next year is make or break at Bates

My pre-season ranking were off:
1. Bowdoin – ended 3rd in regular season, will have to play with an edge on D to come out with the title.
2. Middlebury - ended 4th in regular season, so inconsistent this year…
3. Tufts - ended 1st in regular season, can anyone beat their pressure- must be aggressive against it to have success.
4. Connecticut College - ended 10th in regular season – will have a complete write up on this year – Coach Nagle did not do a good job leading the Camels…
5. Williams - ended 6th in regular season, lost to the top three teams in the regular season.
6. Wesleyan - ended 2nd in regular season, 11 Seniors and Super-Seniors helped the Cards.
7. Amherst - ended 5th in regular season, very strong attack line needs to light it up in the post season
8. Trinity - ended 7th in regular season, finish one spot ahead of predicted…
9. Hamilton - ended 8th in regular season, finish one spot ahead of predicted but are done on Saturday.
10. Colby - ended 9th in regular season, will see what Coach B can bring in for next year…
11. Bates - ended 11th in regular season, much improved from 2023.

My final four : Tufts, Wesleyan, Bowdoin and Amherst

[choochooCharlie]

C. My statement, in response to yours about RI being the deepest R, is that RIII is stronger than RI. The fact that the “gap isn’t huge” between #3 RI and #6 RIII helps you see this (I hope).

False (as usual). If only every Region I team could have just played Christopher Newport (#2 in Region 3) this year, it would have been win after win. Or Swarthmore (#3 in Region 3), or Gettysburg (#5 Region 3).

Bottom line Region 1 team are 5-1 against Region 3. Babson or Endicott would have had little problem with a team like Christopher Newport. Just look at Williams.

Bro, I didn’t make the conference take a turn downward this year, so don’t take it out on me or CNU.

Answer me this, if Tufts, Bowdoin, Middleburg and Amherst all weren’t notably down from their average over the last 3 years, would Babson and Endicott look this good to you?
(just be honest)

[AbeFroeman]

Babson and York are not getting in without a conference championship.

but if it comes down to these two teams, the ncaa does not look at the massey ratings. they are using regional wins. as of the last update (4/24). York has 3 regional wins and Babson has two. there are too many other teams with more regional wins

[choochooCharlie]

Babson and York are not getting in without a conference championship.

but if it comes down to these two teams, the ncaa does not look at the massey ratings. they are using regional wins. as of the last update (4/24). York has 3 regional wins and Babson has two. there are too many other teams with more regional wins

Absolutely right. And that was the argument. Someone said RI was the deepest, and I responded that Endicott, and likely Babson, wouldn’t even be Regionally ranked if they were in RIII with their current resume. Not anything about pool C, or irrelevant Massey ratings, those were attempts to change an argument because it wasn’t going well for them. That along with an absolutely ridiculous attempt to falsify the way the NCAA defines SOS.

“but but but SOS!!”

(but, but, but the Massey ratings ) - I know, I shouldn’t respond to snark with snark.

[SixBySix]

Babson and York are not getting in without a conference championship.

but if it comes down to these two teams, the ncaa does not look at the massey ratings. they are using regional wins. as of the last update (4/24). York has 3 regional wins and Babson has two. there are too many other teams with more regional wins

Well, they also consider win percentage and RPI/SOS. Babson would be in the mix for the last spot of they lose their conference final.

[WoodStick]

The "RamLine"

Ham @ Tufts(-6.5)
Trin @ Wes(-5)
Wil @ Bow(-1)
Am(-1.5) @ Midd

Tufts (-6.5) - Self explanatory. Side note: as a self-aware Tufts hater, I think just edging out a few tight games (Williams / Amherst / Bowdoin) actually helps this team rather than hurts. Credit to whoever had said earlier they were the Miami Dolphins of the NESCAC earlier in the year, but I think the tight games (even a a loss to Wesleyan) strengthens this younger and maybe more inexperienced than previous Tufts team.

Trinity (+5) - I think 5 is a big spread, and Trinity has to be .800+ as a dog against the spread in NESCAC games, especially later in the season. Question for my NESCAC lacrosse historians: When’s the last time Trinity played in the Bird Cage?

Bowdoin (-2.5, Alternate Spread) - Should be higher. Both of these teams really impressed me earlier in the year, but have been through their own skids.

Amherst (-1.5) - Admittedly, I am least confident in this bet. Watched their game earlier in the year, and it seemed that Midd was dominant physically and looked far and away the better team, yet missed expectations mid year. At the same time, Amherst only scoring 6 goals on Wednesday is a head scratcher, regardless of opponent. IMO, depends who shows up for both sides.

Agree on all, wildcard is the experience that Midd can potentially bring. They are probably thinking they need to be in the championship game to move onto the dance. Trin was shut out in the 2nd half against both Midd and Amherst (pretty tough to do that) but still like their shooters to keep it close.

[AbeFroeman]

Babson and York are not getting in without a conference championship.

but if it comes down to these two teams, the ncaa does not look at the massey ratings. they are using regional wins. as of the last update (4/24). York has 3 regional wins and Babson has two. there are too many other teams with more regional wins

Well, they also consider win percentage and RPI/SOS. Babson would be in the mix for the last spot of they lose their conference final.

there are more than 10 other teams with better resume than Babson. they currently have two solid wins and no chance to get anymore solid wins. win the conference or bust.

[ah23]

they are using regional wins. as of the last update (4/24). York has 3 regional wins and Babson has two. there are too many other teams with more regional wins

FWIW, York also has two; W&L and Denison. Stevenson dropped out. To a certain extent, the question is whether going 0-5 against very good/great teams is better than going 5-0 against average teams.

Edit: just for fun! The point of bringing up Massey ratings was to approximate the subjective part of the committee rankings - the fact that a) committee members do more than look at a pre-generated formula before calling it a day, and b) all wins/losses aren’t created equal. Beating RIT ≠ beating Gettysburg. I used Massey ratings instead of the coaches poll because - even with its flaws - it’s more objective, and IMO that makes it a more useful way to compare teams in different conferences that lack common opponents.

[ah23]

The "RamLine"

Ham @ Tufts(-6.5)
Trin @ Wes(-5)
Wil @ Bow(-1)
Am(-1.5) @ Midd

Tufts -6.5
Trinity +5
Bowdoin -1 (easy money…right?)
Amherst -1.5

[Gqlaxer27]

Dont be shocked if the conts shock the world today! Stylistically, i think this matchup isnt the best for the jumbos. Hamilton likes to control the ball and let their goalie makes saves, so we will see if tufts is able to get up and down today. They were tied 9-9 deep in the third of the mustang classic, so hopefully its another good one!

[pcowlax]

Dont be shocked if the conts shock the world today! Stylistically, i think this matchup isnt the best for the jumbos. Hamilton likes to control the ball and let their goalie makes saves, so we will see if tufts is able to get up and down today. They were tied 9-9 deep in the third of the mustang classic, so hopefully its another good one!

Looking like a prophet so far!