Denver 2020

[Puck Swami]

Who DU plays has a lot to do with it. DU can beat the St. Bonaventure's and Cleveland State's of the world saving 43 0r 44% by hugely out-talenting them up front, but Duke and other top 10 programs (who all have good shooters) will expose the DU goaltending weakness and light up the Pioneers like a Christmas tree. Not having a true 50% saves percentage college goalie on the roster for the last 5 years is a huge, epic recruiting failure for Denver. No other way to slice that...

Also, anyone who was counting on DU to win 65% of face-offs this year is probably going to be disappointed. Stathakis and Boos have been up and down for the first four games, and the big possession advantage DU had hoped to have every game just isn't there yet, either. Add that to the freshman close defense that is just learning to play at this level, and there are likely to be some more losses this season.

All that said, DU has very good scoring depth, and should the goaltenders, close defense and face-off all guys up their collective games, the Pios could be a contender this year. But I think that might be too tall an order --another good, but not great, 10-5ish season is probably where DU is headed...

[Denver14]

So, UNC averaging 30.5 SOG per game. Based on DU save percentage that looks like around 17 goals for the Heels unless A: our young defense can mange Gray, or B: our goalie (TBD) stops more than 50%, or C: our FO does better than 70% and thereby reduces the Heels chances. Be nice if the Pios could pull off A,B+C, which would give us a chance.

[DU-fan]

Clearly, DU is the under dog against UNC. It will be a major test for Denver at all positions.

• UNC is basically a 50% / 50% face off team against lower tier competition. Denver should win more than 50%, but you never know.

• Denver will need to control the ball and time of possession. They need to score early and not get behind like they did with Duke. They have the midis and attack to score against UNC. Denver needs to keep the momentum.

• The young defense will definitely be tested. They are doing better than I thought they would so far. UNC is so fast and dynamic that they are going to make some mistakes. Hopefully, Colin Squires is back to provide some leadership on the field. It will be interesting to see how DU plays Chris Grey. He is a great passer and scorer.

• Denver needs to solidify the goalie position. The good news is that DU has three goalies with solid game experience this year. Thompson has come in as relief for both French and Matte, but has not started. He clears very well and provides excellent hustle. All the goalies need to improve their save percentage. However, UNC might not be the best game to improve save percentages, unless one of them stands on their head. It will be interesting to see who Coach T goes with. It may come down to who has the best week of practice.

A few other things to note is that UNC has not really been tested. Their first 3 match ups were not very hard.

• Colgate has been blown out in all their games giving up 19, 21, 20, and 21 goals. UNC scored the least goals.

• Mercer is not very competitive this year. They did beat up Hampton and scored 28 points. But, Hampton is somewhere between a club team and a D1 team. Sorry. No offense intended to Hampton.

• Lafayette is 0-4 and very young. They got blown out by Georgetown and UNC.

I don't know what to think of Johns Hopkins this year. They have great athletes, but can't seem to put it together to win tough games on a consistent basis.

I think UNC's defense is vulnerable. But, they have been so dominant on offense, no one has noticed.

[DU-fan]

Excited for today's game. We have good weather.

It sounds like Colin Squires is playing. I assume he will match up on Chris Grey. I believe Thompson is starting in goal.

Some interesting stats (NCAA ranking):

Clearing percent

• Denver ranks 3rd at .918

• UNC ranks 41st at .842

Saves per game (being low is not great, but also a sign of good defense and your opponents lack of SOG's)

• Denver ranks last at 6

• UNC ranks 63rd at 9.75

Face Off winning percent

• Denver ranks 15th at .608

• UNC ranks 34th at .508

Ground Balls (one of the most important stats IMHO)

• Denver ranks 35th at 32

• UNC ranks 12th at 36.5

Lowest Turnovers

• Denver ranks 2nd at 12.25

• UNC ranks 11 at 14.25

Caused Turnovers

• Denver ranks 14th at 9.5

• UNC ranks 41st at 7.75

Scoring Offense (the most important stat)

• Denver ranks 27th at 13

• UNC ranks 4th at 18.5

[a fan]

I don't know what to think of Johns Hopkins this year. They have great athletes, but can't seem to put it together to win tough games on a consistent basis.

They don't have Final Four talent. End of story. Same issue Tierney has been dealing with the last few seasons. So what happens? NCAA First or Second round losses. Coaching isn't the problem.

Can't win games with players that aren't as good as the other team's players. All the coaching in the world can't fix that problem. Not consistently, anyway....

Case in point with Nadelen...many Hop fans have him as the heir apparent to Petro. Nadelen is 0-4 so far this year, with a loss to Mt. St. Mary's.

Did Nadelen suddenly lose the ability to coach? Or is the problem that he doesn't have top 20 caliber players on the field? My vote is on the latter, and it's not a close call for me, at all.

[Pio9]

I just can't wrap my head around these awful first halves. Seemingly everything that can go wrong does. Can't spot quality teams these big leads. Kudos again for Denver battling back, but chasing the game rarely works out.

[3rdPersonPlural]

Found the game on ytou tube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gProRSJC38c

[jrn19]

I don't know what to think of Johns Hopkins this year. They have great athletes, but can't seem to put it together to win tough games on a consistent basis.

They don't have Final Four talent. End of story. Same issue Tierney has been dealing with the last few seasons. So what happens? NCAA First or Second round losses. Coaching isn't the problem.

Can't win games with players that aren't as good as the other team's players. All the coaching in the world can't fix that problem. Not consistently, anyway....

Case in point with Nadelen...many Hop fans have him as the heir apparent to Petro. Nadelen is 0-4 so far this year, with a loss to Mt. St. Mary's.

Did Nadelen suddenly lose the ability to coach? Or is the problem that he doesn't have top 20 caliber players on the field? My vote is on the latter, and it's not a close call for me, at all.

Recruiting is a part of coaching, so if you don't have the talent, then that is pretty clearly a coaching problem. If you're at an elite program that attracts top talent that is, and Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill

[a fan]

Recruiting is a part of coaching, so if you don't have the talent, then that is pretty clearly a coaching problem. If you're at an elite program that attracts top talent that is, and Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill

Disagree that Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill in 2020, assuming "elite program" means Final Fours...

And the entire reason Denver ever fit that bill in the first place is Bill Tierney.

[Wheels]

Denver and Hop have been slop to adapt to the shot clock, especially on offense. Both are now in transition: recruiting different kinds of players (bigger, stronger, faster) that mix in with their existing rosters (elite stick skills). Will find a balance but it's in progress. Unless BT and Petro are too stubborn.

[jrn19]

Recruiting is a part of coaching, so if you don't have the talent, then that is pretty clearly a coaching problem. If you're at an elite program that attracts top talent that is, and Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill

Disagree that Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill in 2020, assuming "elite program" means Final Fours...

And the entire reason Denver ever fit that bill in the first place is Bill Tierney.

Who is still the coach there, no?

[jrn19]

Denver and Hop have been slop to adapt to the shot clock, especially on offense. Both are now in transition: recruiting different kinds of players (bigger, stronger, faster) that mix in with their existing rosters (elite stick skills). Will find a balance but it's in progress. Unless BT and Petro are too stubborn.

I don't really think Hop's issues have much to do with the shot clock. They were still really good on offense last year, not as good as they were in 2018, but they also had lost Tinney and Stanwick. Their biggest issues on that side are young guys who need time and their best player is hurt. Their biggest issues are A) horrendous goalie play for pretty much years running, B) really bad defense for years running, linked to mediocre ground play and just an overall softness (2018 aside); they had those problems in 2016 and 2017 too, and C) back to what I said about being soft. None of those have to do with the shot clock.

The roster is still very talented and those young guys like Degnon and Zinn will get better and they'll score goals, but basically 4 years out of 5 looking nearly identical in terms of results and issues leads me to support them making a coaching change.

Denver, OTOH, does have some issues in terms of the clock. They're a bit too deliberate and while you don't have to play extremely fast, you do need some transition game and they don't have it (and haven't often under Tierney. However, I don't think they have had a single player who can run past their defender and win a match-up since Connor Cann graduated. Walker's declined each year and is basically exclusively an off ball shooter. Hannah can sometimes make some stuff happen but not consistently against a #1 defender. And it's been that way for about 3 years now.

Their issue is legitimately a talent one; this was a team that had Matthews, Law, Berg, Cannizzaro, Miller for 6 or 7 years running and they haven't had anyone close to that level in '18, '19, or now in '20. Tierney gets more leeway than Petro because they were a Final Four team in '17, plus made the QF's in '18, but they're probably gonna miss NCAAs for a second straight season and Georgetown just gets better each year and is bringing in elite recruiting classes. They have a threat in the Big East they had never had up to this point

[a fan]

Recruiting is a part of coaching, so if you don't have the talent, then that is pretty clearly a coaching problem. If you're at an elite program that attracts top talent that is, and Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill

Disagree that Denver and Hopkins clearly fit that bill in 2020, assuming "elite program" means Final Fours...

And the entire reason Denver ever fit that bill in the first place is Bill Tierney.

Who is still the coach there, no?

Yes. What I'm saying here is that w/o Tierney there, I do not agree that Denver would be an elite program anymore. They'd be an also-ran.

High tuition in the middle of nowhere, relatively speaking. Tough place to recruit Final Four level kids, imho.

[a fan]

Their issue is legitimately a talent one; this was a team that had Matthews, Law, Berg, Cannizzaro, Miller for 6 or 7 years running and they haven't had anyone close to that level in '18, '19, or now in '20.

Agree 100%.

You don't see the same thing at Hopkins? To my eyes, they've had one kid since the Stanwicks/Brown era I'd call elite, and that's Epstein. Pretty hard to make Final Fours when the cupboard is bare....and the Final Four teams have multiple kids of that caliber.

[10stone5]

Their issue is legitimately a talent one; this was a team that had Matthews, Law, Berg, Cannizzaro, Miller for 6 or 7 years running and they haven't had anyone close to that level in '18, '19, or now in '20. Tierney gets more leeway ...

Tierney gets more leeway because he’s Tierney.
He calls the shots.
He can just walk away if wants to, and I’m sure Denver knows that.

You don’t just recruit a Matthews, Wes Berg, or transfer in a Cannizzaro.

Tierney is recruiting where his players are, out West, in Canada, half of Denver’s roster is from CO or CA.

[cherrylax]

Getting back to the game I think you have to 100% put this on the coaching staff. All season UNC has had a heavy ten man ride, and DU looked like they'd never seen anything like it before. It took a whole half to realize oh wait we're pretty good athletes I can just run by my guy. On the plus side Kyle Smith was an absolute monster in the clearing game and think he had one of the biggest hands in the comeback.

Goal tending was better, defense really didn't give him a chance. First 9 goals were on the doorstep. UNC is a very good offensive team this year, but any team is going to look awesome if you give them a ton of second changes on turnovers and failed clears.

Loved the change to the two shorties on the wings of face offs. Goes back to the Old days of Carraro, Flint, and Noble on wings. Really gave us a chance to get up and out. and create some sort of transition. Speaking of Carraro, Flint, and Noble I think we're missing one more Alpha on offense. Jack Hannah is awesome when he wants to be but needs to play a full 60, DU needs one more guy who can generate some hockey assists.

Gut check time for the Pio's.

[Pio9]

This game seeemed to be a mirror image of the Duke game, brutal 1st half, followed by a nice comeback. Even the score was the same.

[Denver14]

Don't think I have ever seen a game with more statistical change from opening to closing bell. It was as if the whole team had just arrived off a 12 hour bus ride where the driver got lost and they missed warm ups. Played like that at every position until the bus fumes wore off. No idea why that would be the case. Agree with the above notes that there are too few players on the offensive end who can take the game in their hands. Walker does, but can't do it alone. Hannah does as well, but it seems they take turns, when it used to be more of a tag team effort with two stars attacking you at the same time and in concert, and when teams focused on the tag team duo, others jumped in with huge games. Now its Hannah or Walker or Perish. Hope Geis can find his way back to doing what he did last season. 2019 Geis on the field in 2020 would be a nice addition, even a game changer.

[jrn19]

Their issue is legitimately a talent one; this was a team that had Matthews, Law, Berg, Cannizzaro, Miller for 6 or 7 years running and they haven't had anyone close to that level in '18, '19, or now in '20.

Agree 100%.

You don't see the same thing at Hopkins? To my eyes, they've had one kid since the Stanwicks/Brown era I'd call elite, and that's Epstein. Pretty hard to make Final Fours when the cupboard is bare....and the Final Four teams have multiple kids of that caliber.

Epstein is definitely at that level, and guys like Degnon and Zinn have shown flashes of being top players. Murphy’s looked promising as a freshman. I think they’ve got the guys there, they’re just young. However, whether they take the next step is an open question, partly because a guy like Williams has all the tools to be an elite player and it’s never happened. Maybe it’s because of him, but it also may be the staff not getting enough out of him.

[FanLax Computer]

Stating the obvious but... Denver's losses are to good teams.