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KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:26 pm
by RedFromMI
For an explanation, see my postings under the Mens DII page.
Poll is from yesterday, but unlike the poll ratings are for games played through yesterday.
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Rollins 2833.5 0.926 8 0 S 6
2 Regis (CO) 2770.4 0.925 6 0 M 7
3 Le Moyne 2717.9 0.924 6 0 E 1 (25)
4 Adelphi 2374.1 0.916 5 0 E 2
5 Assumption 1940.9 0.902 5 0 E 19
6 Saint Leo 1670.1 0.890 8 0 S 24
7 Lindenwood (MO) 1488.8 0.881 7 0 M 5
8 Tampa 1268.5 0.867 6 2 S 10
9 Florida Southern 1203.8 0.862 6 1 S 3
10 Bentley 1071.5 0.851 3 0 E 20
11 Colorado Mesa 905.8 0.834 6 1 M 14
12 Limestone 792.6 0.820 7 1 S 11
13 Queens (NC) 693.5 0.805 5 2 S 15
14 Alabama-Huntsville 548.8 0.776 7 1 S
15 Indianapolis 525.7 0.771 6 1 M 12T
16 Mercy 518.4 0.769 4 2 E 18
17 West Chester 498.0 0.764 3 1 A 4
18 Bloomsburg 431.1 0.745 4 1 A 25
19 Grand Valley State 423.3 0.742 5 2 M 22
20 Roberts Wesleyan 414.6 0.739 8 1 E
21 New Haven 381.7 0.728 4 1 E 17
22 Mount Olive 352.2 0.716 6 2 S
23 Stonehill 346.0 0.713 4 2 E
24 CSU-Pueblo 324.0 0.704 3 2 M
25 NYIT 313.1 0.699 4 1 E 23
26 East Stroudsburg 296.5 0.690 4 2 A 8
27 Florida Tech 277.1 0.680 5 4 S RV
28 Lenoir-Rhyne 261.5 0.671 5 3 S
29 Lincoln Memorial 255.0 0.667 5 2 S
30 Mercyhurst 230.7 0.651 3 2 A 21
31 LIU Post 221.6 0.645 4 2 E 9
32 Indiana (PA) 207.5 0.634 3 2 A
33 Franklin Pierce 202.0 0.630 3 2 E
34 Concordia-St. Paul 198.7 0.627 4 3 M
35 Rockhurst 197.9 0.626 6 4 M
36 Walsh 196.6 0.625 4 1 M
37 Embry-Riddle 188.6 0.618 4 3 S
38 Young Harris 185.0 0.615 3 4 S
39 Molloy 179.5 0.610 7 2 E
40 Georgian Court 176.6 0.607 4 3 A
41 Saint Anselm 176.1 0.607 3 1 E
42 Shippensburg 150.9 0.581 3 2 A
43 Davis & Elkins 146.6 0.576 3 1 M
44 Tiffin 143.1 0.572 4 4 M
45 Saint Michael's 139.0 0.567 1 2 E
46 Merrimack 118.6 0.539 2 2 E 16
47 Slippery Rock 115.9 0.535 1 2 A
48 Pace 110.6 0.527 2 2 E 12T
49 Catawba 109.3 0.525 3 5 S
50 Palm Beach Atlantic 108.3 0.523 4 2 S
51 Seton HIll 105.0 0.518 2 4 A
52 Wingate 100.0 0.509 3 5 S
53 S. New Hampshire 95.9 0.502 2 3 E
54 Millersville 92.0 0.494 3 2 A
55 Gannon 87.5 0.485 2 2 A
56 Colorado -ColSprings 84.4 0.479 2 3 M
57 Davenport 83.8 0.478 3 3 M
58 McKendree 83.3 0.477 2 3 M
59 Lewis 81.8 0.473 1 2 M
60 Belmont Abbey 75.9 0.460 5 4 S
61 West Va Wesleyan 74.5 0.457 2 2 M
62 Lake Erie 67.8 0.440 2 3 M
63 Barton 66.9 0.438 4 3 S
64 Findlay 66.8 0.438 2 6 M
65 Wilmington 65.9 0.435 3 4 A
66 Charleston 64.4 0.431 2 3 M
67 Notre Dame (OH) 63.4 0.429 2 3 M
68 Wheeling Jesuit 62.7 0.427 3 3 M
69 North Greenville 62.3 0.426 5 5 S
70 Kutztown 61.1 0.422 1 2 A
71 Bridgeport 59.5 0.417 1 3 E
72 Shepherd 56.8 0.409 2 3 M
73 Shorter 55.9 0.406 4 4 S
74 Lock Haven 55.6 0.406 2 3 A
75 Felician 50.0 0.387 0 1 A
76 Fort Lewis 48.3 0.381 1 2 M
77 St. Thomas Aquinas 47.2 0.377 2 4 E
78 Chestnut Hill 47.0 0.377 1 3 A
79 UVA-Wise 46.5 0.375 2 4 M
80 Queens (NY) 39.9 0.349 1 3 E
81 Montevallo 39.4 0.347 2 3 S
82 Ashland 37.5 0.339 2 3 M
83 American International 37.4 0.339 2 5 E
84 Westminster 35.2 0.329 0 6 M
85 Lee 28.0 0.292 2 5 S
86 Ohio Valley 27.3 0.289 1 2 M
87 Thomas Jefferson 26.8 0.286 0 3 A
88 Mars Hill 25.9 0.281 3 5 S
89 Coker 24.3 0.271 2 4 S
90 Nyack 24.2 0.270 0 3 A
91 Ursuline 23.2 0.264 0 3 M
92 Edinboro 22.2 0.258 0 5 A
93 Maryville (MO) 22.0 0.256 1 5 M
94 Newberry 21.1 0.250 2 6 S
95 Post 18.9 0.235 1 3 A
96 Caldwell 18.0 0.228 0 3 A
97 S. Connecticut State 17.6 0.225 0 6 E
98 Converse 16.8 0.219 2 3 S
99 Adams State 15.7 0.210 0 4 M
100 Holy Family 15.7 0.210 1 5 A
101 Dominican (NY) 15.3 0.206 0 3 A
102 Alderson-Broadus 14.8 0.203 1 7 M
103 Northern Michigan 13.6 0.192 0 5 M
104 Tusculum 12.2 0.179 1 6 S
105 Lees-McRae 9.7 0.154 0 4 S
106 Oklahoma Baptist 9.4 0.150 0 4 M
107 Erskine 8.6 0.140 2 6 S
108 Univ. of DC 6.3 0.112 0 5 E
109 Southern Wesleyan 5.7 0.103 0 5 S
110 Emmanuel (GA) 4.1 0.080 0 3 S
111 Chowan 3.2 0.065 0 7 S
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:30 am
by admin
As has been my practice the last few years, I will be posting weekly KRACH ratings for DII. Some information on what KRACH is and is not follows:
KRACH stands for Ken's Ratings for American College Hockey, and was devised by a statistitian named Ken Butler to apply to college hockey. It is a particular implementation of a Bradley-Terry rating system. A good description of the system can be found at:
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=krach.
The basic idea is that the ratings reflect the relative winning ability of Team A over Team B. If Team A's rating was three times that of Team B, A would be expected to win 75% of the time if they played each other often enough. The ratings depend ONLY on the actual games played, so a regressions technique is employed to match the ratings to the actual record from the season.
The system also can evaluate the SOS directly from the ratings which helps to insulate the system from the faults of RPI and other measures which can be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.
Because it is strictly based on past records, I believe it does a great job of which teams deserve the best chances at playoffs. In my experience in preparing the ratings over the last several years the system has done a good job of predicting who gets into the NCAAs, and a pretty good job of seeding as well.
Some caveats for how I employ the rating system: only DII vs DII games are used, and that also means I don't include games against Pfeiffer and Brevard, which although still technically in DII are well into the DIII transition process, and at this point have DIII schedules, which mean that they are not eligible for any championships. Games against other NCAA divisions and NAIA, etc games are not included. Also, until sufficient games are played, the ratings can be quite unstable with substantial team movement over a few days. I am a bit early in publishing the first men's DII ratings today as there are a half dozen teams who have not yet played a DII opponent (72 teams in DII by my count for 2019).
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:56 am
by RedFromMI
Thanks for reposting my explanation - I was tired by the time I finished last night...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:09 pm
by peanutgallery
Thank you for posting (creating) the Krach ratings once again.
It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the season plays out as Conference schedules begin soon.
If the model is true, several interesting things would occur.
In the South... all four teams would be from Sunshine State Conference.
In the Atlantic.. first team is West Chester at 17. Big difference from the polls.
The surprise is UAH..but then the model correctly predicted them taking out FIT
thanks again...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:05 pm
by RedFromMI
peanutgallery wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:09 pm
Thank you for posting (creating) the Krach ratings once again.
It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the season plays out as Conference schedules begin soon.
If the model is true, several interesting things would occur.
In the South... all four teams would be from Sunshine State Conference.
In the Atlantic.. first team is West Chester at 17. Big difference from the polls.
The surprise is UAH..but then the model correctly predicted them taking out FIT
thanks again...
The Sunshine State effect is real as it is truly one of the toughest conferences, but since they mostly still have to play each other, some weeding will still occur. Last year with three South slots, they came very close to getting all three positions - but Limestone just squeaked into the field...
In the end I expect to see either two or three from that conference.
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:17 pm
by RedFromMI
For games through today, March 24, 2019 (DII vs DII only)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Adelphi 6520.2 0.948 7 0 E 2
2 Le Moyne 6112.8 0.945 7 0 E 1
3 Regis (CO) 4861.2 0.934 9 0 M 7
4 Rollins 3822.7 0.920 8 0 S 5
5 Saint Leo 3483.0 0.914 11 0 S RV (112)
6 Florida Southern 2020.4 0.875 7 1 S 3
7 Tampa 1987.7 0.873 6 2 S 10
8 Lindenwood (MO) 1824.6 0.866 9 0 M 6
9 Assumption 1380.1 0.840 6 2 E 20
10 Indianapolis 1370.3 0.840 8 1 M 12T
11 Bentley 1359.5 0.839 4 1 E 19
12 Limestone 1304.6 0.835 9 1 S 11
13 West Chester 1212.9 0.827 6 1 A 4
14 Queens (NC) 1193.9 0.826 8 2 S 14
15 Mercy 1045.7 0.812 6 2 E 17
16 Alabama-Huntsville 967.3 0.803 9 2 S
17 Stonehill 786.6 0.779 5 2 E RV (24)
18 New Haven 714.9 0.767 5 2 E 16
19 East Stroudsburg 633.3 0.752 6 2 A 8
20 Colorado Mesa 587.8 0.742 7 2 M 12T
21 LIU Post 577.5 0.740 6 2 E 9
22 Bloomsburg 449.6 0.705 6 2 A RV (29)
23 Lincoln Memorial 447.0 0.705 7 2 S
24 NYIT 446.4 0.704 5 2 E RV (83)
25 Grand Valley State 423.9 0.697 6 3 M RV (114)
26 Roberts Wesleyan 390.6 0.685 8 2 E
27 Mount Olive 368.8 0.677 7 3 S RV (32)
28 Saint Anselm 364.9 0.675 5 1 E
29 Florida Tech 329.5 0.660 5 5 S
30 Lenoir-Rhyne 323.6 0.657 6 4 S
31 Franklin Pierce 322.3 0.656 5 2 E
32 CSU-Pueblo 289.5 0.640 3 3 M
33 Embry-Riddle 286.4 0.638 5 3 S
34 Young Harris 266.7 0.627 4 4 S
35 Walsh 265.3 0.626 5 1 M
36 Mercyhurst 257.7 0.621 4 3 A RV (61)
37 Georgian Court 244.7 0.613 4 4 A
38 Merrimack 244.5 0.613 3 3 E 18
39 Rockhurst 238.9 0.609 6 4 M
40 Shippensburg 216.1 0.593 4 3 A
41 Indiana (PA) 215.1 0.592 3 3 A
42 Molloy 211.8 0.590 8 4 E
43 Pace 206.9 0.586 3 4 E 12T
44 McKendree 193.9 0.575 4 3 M
45 Tiffin 183.4 0.566 4 5 M
46 Findlay 180.4 0.564 3 6 M
47 Davis & Elkins 179.5 0.563 3 1 M
48 Millersville 173.9 0.557 4 3 A
49 Concordia-St. Paul 173.6 0.557 5 4 M
50 Seton HIll 168.5 0.552 3 5 A
51 Catawba 157.6 0.541 4 6 S
52 Wheeling Jesuit 140.9 0.522 5 3 M
53 Slippery Rock 132.8 0.512 2 3 A
54 Lake Erie 130.5 0.509 3 3 M
55 Palm Beach Atlantic 127.0 0.505 4 3 S
56 S. New Hampshire 119.2 0.494 3 4 E
57 Davenport 115.6 0.489 4 4 M
58 Kutztown 115.6 0.489 2 3 A
59 Bridgeport 108.8 0.479 4 3 E
60 Lewis 108.5 0.478 1 2 M
61 Shepherd 103.1 0.470 4 4 M
62 Wingate 100.0 0.465 3 6 S
63 Belmont Abbey 88.8 0.445 5 6 S
64 UVA-Wise 79.6 0.426 3 5 M
65 Barton 79.2 0.426 5 4 S
66 North Greenville 77.7 0.422 5 5 S
67 Lock Haven 76.7 0.420 3 4 A
68 Colorado -ColSprings 73.9 0.414 2 4 M
69 Shorter 70.9 0.407 4 4 S
70 Chestnut Hill 68.5 0.402 1 4 A
71 Montevallo 65.2 0.394 3 4 S
72 Gannon 63.4 0.389 2 4 A
73 Saint Michael's 61.5 0.384 1 4 E
74 Wilmington 60.0 0.380 3 5 A
75 Charleston 58.8 0.377 2 5 M
76 St. Thomas Aquinas 58.2 0.375 3 5 E
77 S. Connecticut State 55.9 0.369 2 7 E
78 Fort Lewis 55.5 0.367 1 3 M
79 Westminster 55.0 0.366 1 6 M
80 Ursuline 54.4 0.364 1 4 M
81 Thomas Jefferson 51.0 0.354 1 3 A
82 Notre Dame (OH) 49.3 0.349 3 5 M
83 West Va Wesleyan 45.5 0.336 2 4 M
84 American International 43.8 0.331 2 6 E
85 Mars Hill 36.9 0.304 4 6 S
86 Ashland 35.3 0.298 2 5 M
87 Nyack 31.9 0.283 1 4 A
88 Ohio Valley 31.4 0.281 2 2 M
89 Northern Michigan 29.8 0.273 1 6 M
90 Coker 28.2 0.266 3 5 S
91 Caldwell 26.0 0.254 1 6 A
92 Lee 25.2 0.250 2 6 S
93 Edinboro 23.0 0.238 0 7 A
94 Newberry 19.4 0.217 2 8 S
95 Felician 19.1 0.214 0 3 A
96 Converse 19.1 0.214 3 3 S
97 Alderson-Broadus 18.6 0.212 1 7 M
98 Tusculum 18.0 0.207 2 8 S
99 Maryville (MO) 16.1 0.194 1 7 M
100 Post 16.1 0.194 1 4 A
101 Queens (NY) 15.9 0.193 1 6 E
102 Dominican (NY) 14.9 0.185 0 4 A
103 Holy Family 13.9 0.177 1 5 A
104 Oklahoma Baptist 11.9 0.161 1 5 M
105 Erskine 11.4 0.157 3 7 S
106 Adams State 6.7 0.108 0 6 M
107 Southern Wesleyan 5.7 0.096 1 6 S
108 Lees-McRae 5.6 0.096 0 6 S
109 Univ. of DC 4.4 0.079 0 7 E
110 Emmanuel (GA) 3.9 0.072 0 5 S
111 Chowan 2.2 0.044 0 8 S
Way too early look at ratings within regions (4 each region in NCAA playoffs, showing top eight each region here)
East
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Adelphi 6520.2 0.948 7 0 E 2
2 Le Moyne 6112.8 0.945 7 0 E 1
9 Assumption 1380.1 0.840 6 2 E 20
11 Bentley 1359.5 0.839 4 1 E 19
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 Mercy 1045.7 0.812 6 2 E 17
17 Stonehill 786.6 0.779 5 2 E RV (24)
18 New Haven 714.9 0.767 5 2 E 16
21 LIU Post 577.5 0.740 6 2 E 9
Atlantic
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
13 West Chester 1212.9 0.827 6 1 A 4
19 East Stroudsburg 633.3 0.752 6 2 A 8
22 Bloomsburg 449.6 0.705 6 2 A RV (29)
36 Mercyhurst 257.7 0.621 4 3 A RV (61)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
37 Georgian Court 244.7 0.613 4 4 A
40 Shippensburg 216.1 0.593 4 3 A
41 Indiana (PA) 215.1 0.592 3 3 A
48 Millersville 173.9 0.557 4 3 A
South
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
4 Rollins 3822.7 0.920 8 0 S 5
5 Saint Leo 3483.0 0.914 11 0 S RV (112)
6 Florida Southern 2020.4 0.875 7 1 S 3
7 Tampa 1987.7 0.873 6 2 S 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 Limestone 1304.6 0.835 9 1 S 11
14 Queens (NC) 1193.9 0.826 8 2 S 14
16 Alabama-Huntsville 967.3 0.803 9 2 S
23 Lincoln Memorial 447.0 0.705 7 2 S
Midwest
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
3 Regis (CO) 4861.2 0.934 9 0 M 7
8 Lindenwood (MO) 1824.6 0.866 9 0 M 6
10 Indianapolis 1370.3 0.840 8 1 M 12T
20 Colorado Mesa 587.8 0.742 7 2 M 12T
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25 Grand Valley State 423.9 0.697 6 3 M RV (114)
32 CSU-Pueblo 289.5 0.640 3 3 M
35 Walsh 265.3 0.626 5 1 M
44 McKendree 193.9 0.575 4 3 M
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:29 pm
by RedFromMI
Edited the above entry to reflect today's new poll, which better syncs with my data. This week they only ranked the top 20, and listed more teams receiving votes...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:49 pm
by RedFromMI
For games through 3/31/2019 (DII vs DII only):
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 6977.8 0.954 9 0 E 1
2 Regis (CO) 5139.2 0.941 10 0 M 10
3 Rollins 4168.0 0.930 9 0 S 2
4 Saint Leo 3579.2 0.921 12 0 S 21
5 Adelphi 2891.6 0.908 8 1 E 3
6 Tampa 2723.9 0.904 8 2 S 6
7 Lindenwood (MO) 1898.6 0.878 10 0 M 4
8 LIU Post 1522.5 0.859 8 2 E 5
9 Florida Southern 1397.9 0.852 8 2 S 8
10 Limestone 1394.0 0.852 11 1 S 11
11 Bentley 1357.1 0.849 6 1 E 19T
12 Assumption 1252.9 0.842 7 2 E 17
13 East Stroudsburg 1250.3 0.842 8 2 A 9
14 Indianapolis 1218.5 0.839 9 1 M 12T
15 Mercy 1028.6 0.823 8 2 E 15
16 West Chester 1009.1 0.821 7 2 A 7
17 Queens (NC) 1003.6 0.820 9 2 S 14
18 Alabama-Huntsville 833.5 0.801 10 2 S
19 Colorado Mesa 644.2 0.771 9 2 M 12T
20 New Haven 487.4 0.737 5 4 E 19T
21 Grand Valley State 448.7 0.726 8 3 M 22
22 Merrimack 386.7 0.706 5 3 E 18
23 Stonehill 363.2 0.698 5 4 E RV
24 NYIT 318.0 0.679 6 3 E 24
25 Bloomsburg 314.9 0.678 7 3 A
26 Roberts Wesleyan 310.6 0.676 9 3 E
27 Seton HIll 306.9 0.674 5 5 A
28 Lenoir-Rhyne 299.0 0.670 7 5 S
29 Georgian Court 291.8 0.667 5 4 A
30 Mount Olive 290.2 0.666 7 4 S 23
31 Florida Tech 284.9 0.663 5 5 S
32 Franklin Pierce 263.6 0.652 6 3 E
33 Embry-Riddle 262.1 0.651 6 4 S
34 Pace 246.2 0.642 4 5 E 16
35 Millersville 236.9 0.636 6 3 A
36 Lincoln Memorial 222.2 0.626 8 3 S
37 CSU-Pueblo 203.1 0.613 4 4 M
38 Rockhurst 198.8 0.610 6 5 M
39 Young Harris 193.7 0.606 5 5 S
40 Walsh 192.9 0.605 5 1 M
41 McKendree 175.6 0.590 6 4 M
42 Molloy 168.8 0.584 8 5 E
43 Findlay 159.6 0.575 4 6 M
44 S. New Hampshire 155.8 0.571 4 5 E
45 Tiffin 155.7 0.571 5 5 M
46 Saint Anselm 154.2 0.570 5 3 E
47 Kutztown 150.3 0.566 4 3 A
48 Concordia-St. Paul 148.8 0.564 6 4 M
49 Slippery Rock 147.2 0.563 3 4 A
50 Wheeling Jesuit 145.4 0.561 7 3 M
51 Mercyhurst 136.0 0.550 4 5 A 25
52 Catawba 134.8 0.549 5 6 S
53 Shippensburg 124.9 0.536 4 4 A
54 Indiana (PA) 118.2 0.528 3 5 A
55 Lake Erie 106.0 0.510 3 4 M
56 Palm Beach Atlantic 100.3 0.501 4 4 S
57 Wingate 99.1 0.499 4 7 S
58 Bridgeport 97.9 0.497 5 3 E
59 Shepherd 97.1 0.496 5 4 M
60 Davenport 84.2 0.473 5 5 M
61 Davis & Elkins 83.7 0.472 3 2 M
62 Belmont Abbey 80.0 0.465 6 6 S
63 Chestnut Hill 78.1 0.461 2 4 A
64 UVA-Wise 75.5 0.456 4 5 M
65 Thomas Jefferson 75.4 0.455 3 3 A
66 North Greenville 69.4 0.442 7 5 S
67 Westminster 67.5 0.438 2 6 M
68 Montevallo 56.3 0.409 4 5 S
69 Barton 56.1 0.409 7 4 S
70 St. Thomas Aquinas 52.5 0.398 5 5 E
71 Colorado -ColSprings 51.6 0.396 2 5 M
72 Lock Haven 47.4 0.383 3 6 A
73 Charleston 46.0 0.378 3 6 M
74 Ursuline 45.0 0.375 2 4 M
75 Saint Michael's 43.8 0.371 2 5 E
76 Shorter 41.8 0.364 4 5 S
77 Wilmington 41.5 0.362 4 6 A
78 American International 38.4 0.351 3 7 E
79 Edinboro 36.9 0.345 1 8 A
80 Nyack 36.6 0.344 4 4 A
81 Notre Dame (OH) 35.0 0.337 4 6 M
82 Northern Michigan 34.8 0.336 2 6 M
83 Gannon 29.5 0.313 2 6 A
84 Fort Lewis 29.4 0.312 1 4 M
85 S. Connecticut State 28.7 0.309 2 9 E
86 Lewis 26.9 0.300 1 5 M
87 Ashland 24.8 0.288 2 5 M
88 Mars Hill 24.0 0.284 4 7 S
89 Coker 21.0 0.267 4 6 S
90 West Va Wesleyan 19.6 0.257 2 6 M
91 Tusculum 18.9 0.253 3 8 S
92 Converse 16.2 0.233 4 4 S
93 Caldwell 15.5 0.228 1 7 A
94 Dominican (NY) 14.3 0.218 1 5 A
95 Lee 14.0 0.216 2 8 S
96 Felician 13.2 0.210 0 4 A
97 Ohio Valley 12.7 0.205 2 3 M
98 Newberry 11.0 0.189 2 9 S
99 Alderson-Broadus 9.9 0.178 1 10 M
100 Maryville (MO) 9.5 0.174 1 10 M
101 Oklahoma Baptist 8.3 0.161 1 5 M
102 Queens (NY) 8.2 0.159 1 9 E
103 Holy Family 7.0 0.145 1 6 A
104 Post 5.9 0.129 1 7 A
105 Lees-McRae 5.4 0.122 1 7 S
106 Erskine 5.2 0.119 3 9 S
107 Adams State 4.7 0.111 0 7 M
108 Southern Wesleyan 2.8 0.077 1 7 S
109 Emmanuel (GA) 2.3 0.067 0 8 S
110 Univ. of DC 1.8 0.055 0 9 E
111 Chowan 0.9 0.031 0 10 S
East Region rankings (top eight, four to enter NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 6977.8 0.954 9 0 E 1
5 Adelphi 2891.6 0.908 8 1 E 3
8 LIU Post 1522.5 0.859 8 2 E 5
11 Bentley 1357.1 0.849 6 1 E 19T
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 Assumption 1252.9 0.842 7 2 E 17
15 Mercy 1028.6 0.823 8 2 E 15
20 New Haven 487.4 0.737 5 4 E 19T
22 Merrimack 386.7 0.706 5 3 E 18
South Region rankings (top eight, four to enter NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
3 Rollins 4168.0 0.930 9 0 S 2
4 Saint Leo 3579.2 0.921 12 0 S 21
6 Tampa 2723.9 0.904 8 2 S 6
9 Florida Southern 1397.9 0.852 8 2 S 8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 Limestone 1394.0 0.852 11 1 S 11
17 Queens (NC) 1003.6 0.820 9 2 S 14
18 Alabama-Huntsville 833.5 0.801 10 2 S
28 Lenoir-Rhyne 299.0 0.670 7 5 S
Midwest Region rankings (top eight, four to enter NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
2 Regis (CO) 5139.2 0.941 10 0 M 10
7 Lindenwood (MO) 1898.6 0.878 10 0 M 4
14 Indianapolis 1218.5 0.839 9 1 M 12T
19 Colorado Mesa 644.2 0.771 9 2 M 12T
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Grand Valley State 448.7 0.726 8 3 M 22
37 CSU-Pueblo 203.1 0.613 4 4 M
38 Rockhurst 198.8 0.610 6 5 M
40 Walsh 192.9 0.605 5 1 M
Atlantic Region rankings (top eight, four to enter NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
13 East Stroudsburg 1250.3 0.842 8 2 A 9
16 West Chester 1009.1 0.821 7 2 A 7
25 Bloomsburg 314.9 0.678 7 3 A
27 Seton HIll 306.9 0.674 5 5 A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
29 Georgian Court 291.8 0.667 5 4 A
35 Millersville 236.9 0.636 6 3 A
47 Kutztown 150.3 0.566 4 3 A
49 Slippery Rock 147.2 0.563 3 4 A
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:59 pm
by RedFromMI
For games through today - Sunday, April 7, 2019. DII vs DII only considered. Poll now updated to 4/8 version.
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 8847.8 0.965 11 0 E 1 (625)
2 Regis (CO) 5846.1 0.949 11 0 M 9 (438)
3 Saint Leo 3367.3 0.922 13 0 S 21 (157)
4 Adelphi 2908.9 0.914 10 1 E 2 (587)
5 Tampa 2752.1 0.910 9 2 S 5T (507)
6 Lindenwood (MO) 2220.9 0.896 12 0 M 3 (553)
7 Rollins 2199.1 0.896 10 1 S 5T (507)
8 Florida Southern 2179.8 0.895 10 2 S 7 (502)
9 LIU Post 1609.8 0.873 10 2 E 4 (530)
10 Indianapolis 1499.7 0.867 12 1 M 12 (348)
11 Limestone 1449.8 0.864 13 1 S 10 (384)
12 West Chester 1179.2 0.846 9 2 A 8 (452)
13 Bentley 1120.3 0.842 8 1 E 19 (195)
14 Queens (NC) 1088.7 0.839 11 2 S 13 (317)
15 Assumption 1029.8 0.834 8 3 E 17 (212)
16 East Stroudsburg 756.6 0.804 9 3 A 11 (361)
17 Mercy 603.1 0.779 8 4 E 14T (274)
18 Colorado Mesa 554.1 0.769 9 3 M 14T (274)
19 Alabama-Huntsville 456.9 0.747 10 3 S
20 New Haven 442.2 0.743 7 4 E 17 (215)
21 Grand Valley State 436.4 0.741 8 3 M 22 (1)
22 Stonehill 391.6 0.727 7 4 E
23 Seton HIll 364.8 0.718 7 5 A
24 NYIT 352.4 0.714 8 3 E 24 (44)
25 Lenoir-Rhyne 328.6 0.705 8 5 S
26 Merrimack 305.2 0.695 6 4 E 18 (196)
27 Mount Olive 300.6 0.693 8 4 S 23 (82)
28 Bloomsburg 279.6 0.683 7 3 A
29 Georgian Court 261.8 0.674 7 4 A
30 Embry-Riddle 261.1 0.674 7 5 S
31 Roberts Wesleyan 257.2 0.672 9 3 E
32 Young Harris 248.6 0.667 7 5 S
33 Florida Tech 238.4 0.661 5 7 S
34 Rockhurst 210.7 0.644 7 5 M
35 Millersville 183.8 0.624 7 4 A
36 Indiana (PA) 177.7 0.619 5 5 A 25 (43)
37 Pace 177.1 0.618 5 6 E 20 (161)
38 Tiffin 175.6 0.617 7 5 M
39 Findlay 169.3 0.612 6 6 M
40 Slippery Rock 160.9 0.604 4 5 A
41 McKendree 159.7 0.603 7 6 M
42 Kutztown 151.3 0.595 5 3 A
43 Lincoln Memorial 151.1 0.595 8 5 S
44 Saint Anselm 150.6 0.594 6 4 E
45 Mercyhurst 145.3 0.589 6 5 A
46 Concordia-St. Paul 133.8 0.577 7 4 M
47 CSU-Pueblo 128.7 0.571 4 6 M
48 Franklin Pierce 116.0 0.555 6 5 E
49 Catawba 113.5 0.552 5 7 S
50 Molloy 109.8 0.547 8 6 E
51 Lake Erie 109.8 0.547 5 4 M
52 Wheeling Jesuit 102.2 0.536 8 4 M
53 S. New Hampshire 99.9 0.532 4 7 E
54 Wingate 99.1 0.531 6 7 S
55 Bridgeport 98.1 0.530 7 3 E
56 UVA-Wise 96.3 0.527 6 5 M
57 Shippensburg 88.0 0.513 4 6 A
58 Walsh 80.9 0.500 5 3 M
59 Shepherd 76.9 0.492 6 4 M
60 Belmont Abbey 76.3 0.491 7 7 S
61 Davenport 69.3 0.477 5 5 M
62 Palm Beach Atlantic 66.2 0.470 4 6 S
63 North Greenville 65.6 0.468 8 5 S
64 Chestnut Hill 64.0 0.464 3 5 A
65 Thomas Jefferson 59.7 0.454 5 4 A
66 Davis & Elkins 59.5 0.454 4 3 M
67 Colorado-ColSprings 57.1 0.447 4 5 M
68 Westminster 55.4 0.443 2 6 M
69 Barton 50.2 0.428 8 5 S
70 Wilmington 40.4 0.395 6 6 A
71 Montevallo 34.7 0.373 5 7 S
72 Lock Haven 33.3 0.368 3 8 A
73 American International 27.9 0.342 3 9 E
74 Saint Michael's 27.4 0.340 2 7 E
75 St. Thomas Aquinas 27.4 0.340 5 6 E
76 Notre Dame (OH) 26.7 0.337 5 7 M
77 Ursuline 26.3 0.334 2 5 M
78 Shorter 26.1 0.333 4 6 S
79 Northern Michigan 25.1 0.328 2 7 M
80 Charleston 23.5 0.319 3 8 M
81 Gannon 22.6 0.313 2 8 A
82 Edinboro 22.4 0.312 1 10 A
83 Coker 21.3 0.306 5 6 S
84 S. Connecticut State 20.8 0.303 2 11 E
85 Lewis 20.3 0.299 1 5 M
86 Ashland 19.7 0.295 3 6 M
87 Fort Lewis 18.2 0.285 1 5 M
88 Nyack 18.0 0.284 5 6 A
89 Lee 17.3 0.278 3 8 S
90 Mars Hill 15.6 0.266 4 9 S
91 Tusculum 15.6 0.266 4 9 S
92 Dominican (NY) 13.4 0.247 2 6 A
93 West Va Wesleyan 12.7 0.240 2 7 M
94 Converse 10.0 0.213 4 6 S
95 Ohio Valley 8.6 0.196 2 5 M
96 Newberry 7.7 0.185 2 11 S
97 Caldwell 6.6 0.170 1 9 A
98 Alderson-Broadus 6.5 0.169 1 11 M
99 Felician 6.1 0.163 0 6 A
100 Oklahoma Baptist 6.1 0.162 1 5 M
101 Maryville (MO) 6.0 0.162 1 12 M
102 Queens (NY) 5.0 0.144 2 10 E
103 Post 4.7 0.140 2 8 A
104 Lees-McRae 4.7 0.139 1 7 S
105 Erskine 3.9 0.125 3 10 S
106 Adams State 3.3 0.113 0 8 M
107 Southern Wesleyan 2.7 0.097 1 8 S
108 Holy Family 2.3 0.088 1 8 A
109 Chowan 1.3 0.058 1 10 S
110 Univ. of DC 0.8 0.037 0 10 E
111 Emmanuel (GA) 0.8 0.036 0 9 S
East Region (top eight shown, top four in region selected for NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 8847.8 0.965 11 0 E 1 (625)
4 Adelphi 2908.9 0.914 10 1 E 2 (587)
9 LIU Post 1609.8 0.873 10 2 E 4 (530)
13 Bentley 1120.3 0.842 8 1 E 19 (195)
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15 Assumption 1029.8 0.834 8 3 E 17 (212)
17 Mercy 603.1 0.779 8 4 E 14T (274)
20 New Haven 442.2 0.743 7 4 E 16 (215)
22 Stonehill 391.6 0.727 7 4 E
Atlantic Region (top eight shown, top four in region selected for NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
12 West Chester 1179.2 0.846 9 2 A 8 (452)
16 East Stroudsburg 756.6 0.804 9 3 A 11 (361)
23 Seton HIll 364.8 0.718 7 5 A
28 Bloomsburg 279.6 0.683 7 3 A
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29 Georgian Court 261.8 0.674 7 4 A
35 Millersville 183.8 0.624 7 4 A
36 Indiana (PA) 177.7 0.619 5 5 A 25 (43)
40 Slippery Rock 160.9 0.604 4 5 A
South Region (top eight shown, top four in region selected for NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
3 Saint Leo 3367.3 0.922 13 0 S 21 (157)
5 Tampa 2752.1 0.910 9 2 S 5T (507)
7 Rollins 2199.1 0.896 10 1 S 5T (507)
8 Florida Southern 2179.8 0.895 10 2 S 7 (502)
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11 Limestone 1449.8 0.864 13 1 S 10 (384)
14 Queens (NC) 1088.7 0.839 11 2 S 13 (317)
19 Alabama-Huntsville 456.9 0.747 10 3 S
25 Lenoir-Rhyne 328.6 0.705 8 5 S
Midwest Region (top eight shown, top four in region selected for NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
2 Regis (CO) 5846.1 0.949 11 0 M 9 (438)
6 Lindenwood (MO) 2220.9 0.896 12 0 M 3 (553)
10 Indianapolis 1499.7 0.867 12 1 M 12 (348)
18 Colorado Mesa 554.1 0.769 9 3 M 14T (274)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 Grand Valley State 436.4 0.741 8 3 M 22 (104)
34 Rockhurst 210.7 0.644 7 5 M
38 Tiffin 175.6 0.617 7 5 M
39 Findlay 169.3 0.612 6 6 M
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:39 pm
by RedFromMI
DII Conference Ratings - using average RRWP (round robin winning percentage, estimation of what the win percentage for a team if they played every other DII team once) as a measure of "toughness" of each conference...
Code: Select all
Conference RRWP avg
Sunshine 0.7754
NE10 0.6432
PSAC 0.5838
RMAC 0.5279
Great Lakes 0.5149
GMAC 0.4832
SAC 0.4717
GSC 0.4287
MEC 0.4085
Carolinas 0.3284
CACC 0.3080
Clear difference between SSC and everyone else, with NE10 and PSAC close behind. Bottom four conferences suffer from too many new teams...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:54 pm
by RedFromMI
Games through Sunday, April 14, 2019. Poll will be updated when out tomorrow (Monday). DII vs DII only...
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 7796.8 0.964 13 0 E 1
2 Regis (CO) 7121.2 0.961 13 0 M 9
3 Rollins 4227.8 0.940 12 1 S 5T
4 Adelphi 3293.4 0.928 12 1 E 2
5 Florida Southern 3126.7 0.925 13 2 S 7
6 Tampa 2370.9 0.910 10 3 S 5T
7 Queens (NC) 1429.0 0.875 13 2 S 13
8 Saint Leo 1413.1 0.874 13 2 S 21
9 Lindenwood (MO) 1396.4 0.873 12 1 M 3
10 Indianapolis 1250.9 0.865 13 1 M 12
11 West Chester 1158.1 0.858 11 2 A 8
12 Limestone 960.6 0.842 14 2 S 10
13 LIU Post 940.7 0.840 10 3 E 4
14 Assumption 873.9 0.834 10 3 E 17
15 East Stroudsburg 715.6 0.815 11 3 A 11
16 Mercy 523.3 0.782 10 4 E 14T
17 Bentley 512.9 0.780 8 3 E 19
18 NYIT 480.0 0.773 10 3 E 24
19 New Haven 452.9 0.766 9 4 E 16
20 Colorado Mesa 446.4 0.764 10 3 M 14T
21 Grand Valley State 395.4 0.750 10 3 M 22
22 Lenoir-Rhyne 327.0 0.727 9 5 S
23 Pace 312.2 0.722 7 6 E 20
24 Alabama-Huntsville 311.9 0.721 11 3 S
25 Mount Olive 299.0 0.716 10 4 S 23
26 Merrimack 298.8 0.716 7 5 E 18
27 Bloomsburg 289.1 0.712 9 3 A
28 Roberts Wesleyan 264.2 0.700 10 3 E
29 Embry-Riddle 257.4 0.697 8 5 S
30 Georgian Court 239.1 0.687 9 4 A
31 Seton HIll 234.2 0.685 7 6 A
32 Stonehill 215.9 0.674 7 6 E
33 Mercyhurst 199.1 0.663 8 5 A
34 Florida Tech 182.0 0.650 6 8 S
35 Indiana (PA) 178.2 0.647 7 5 A 25
36 Rockhurst 164.2 0.636 7 5 M
37 Tiffin 163.7 0.636 8 6 M
38 Findlay 148.6 0.622 7 7 M
39 Young Harris 144.1 0.618 7 6 S
40 Lincoln Memorial 134.6 0.608 10 5 S
41 McKendree 132.6 0.606 8 6 M
42 Kutztown 127.3 0.600 6 4 A
43 Millersville 120.9 0.592 7 6 A
44 Slippery Rock 120.3 0.592 5 6 A
45 Catawba 115.3 0.586 6 8 S
46 Concordia-St. Paul 103.1 0.569 8 4 M
47 Wingate 99.1 0.564 8 7 S
48 Molloy 95.1 0.557 9 6 E
49 Belmont Abbey 91.2 0.551 9 7 S
50 Saint Anselm 90.4 0.550 6 6 E
51 Walsh 88.3 0.547 7 3 M
52 UVA-Wise 86.4 0.543 7 5 M
53 Shepherd 74.7 0.522 8 4 M
54 CSU-Pueblo 74.5 0.522 4 7 M
55 S. New Hampshire 72.6 0.518 5 8 E
56 Colorado -ColSprings 68.1 0.508 5 5 M
57 Thomas Jefferson 66.8 0.506 7 4 A
58 Wheeling Jesuit 66.1 0.504 9 5 M
59 Shippensburg 65.1 0.502 4 8 A
60 Bridgeport 65.0 0.502 7 5 E
61 Lake Erie 62.8 0.496 6 5 M
62 Franklin Pierce 60.5 0.491 6 6 E
63 Davenport 55.1 0.477 6 6 M
64 Westminster 53.4 0.473 3 7 M
65 Chestnut Hill 45.5 0.449 4 6 A
66 Palm Beach Atlantic 44.5 0.446 4 8 S
67 North Greenville 41.3 0.435 8 7 S
68 Saint Michael's 34.2 0.408 3 8 E
69 Barton 32.9 0.402 8 6 S
70 Davis & Elkins 32.6 0.401 5 5 M
71 Montevallo 25.4 0.366 5 7 S
72 Lock Haven 25.0 0.364 3 10 A
73 Wilmington 23.7 0.357 7 7 A
74 St. Thomas Aquinas 23.1 0.353 6 6 E
75 Shorter 20.9 0.340 5 6 S
76 American International 20.6 0.338 3 10 E
77 Notre Dame (OH) 20.5 0.337 6 8 M
78 Fort Lewis 18.5 0.323 2 5 M
79 Ashland 18.1 0.321 4 7 M
80 Charleston 16.4 0.308 3 9 M
81 Edinboro 16.4 0.308 1 12 A
82 Coker 15.5 0.301 5 7 S
83 Gannon 15.5 0.301 2 10 A
84 S. Connecticut State 15.3 0.299 2 13 E
85 Dominican (NY) 13.4 0.282 3 7 A
86 Northern Michigan 12.6 0.274 2 10 M
87 Ursuline 11.8 0.266 2 7 M
88 Mars Hill 11.3 0.261 4 9 S
89 Lee 11.0 0.258 3 10 S
90 Tusculum 10.7 0.254 4 11 S
91 Caldwell 10.5 0.253 3 9 A
92 Ohio Valley 10.3 0.250 3 6 M
93 Nyack 8.8 0.232 5 8 A
94 West Va Wesleyan 8.3 0.225 2 9 M
95 Maryville (MO) 5.7 0.185 2 12 M
96 Oklahoma Baptist 5.4 0.180 1 6 M
97 Lewis 5.3 0.178 1 8 M
98 Newberry 5.3 0.178 2 13 S
99 Converse 4.9 0.171 4 7 S
100 Alderson-Broadus 4.5 0.162 1 11 M
101 Southern Wesleyan 4.4 0.161 3 8 S
102 Queens (NY) 3.5 0.141 2 12 E
103 Post 3.2 0.134 2 10 A
104 Erskine 3.0 0.128 3 11 S
105 Felician 2.6 0.118 0 7 A
106 Adams State 2.3 0.109 0 10 M
107 Lees-McRae 2.1 0.101 1 9 S
108 Holy Family 1.5 0.081 1 9 A
109 Chowan 1.0 0.059 1 10 S
110 Emmanuel (GA) 0.5 0.036 0 9 S
111 Univ. of DC 0.5 0.035 0 12 E
East Region Preview (top eight, four selected for NCAA tourney)
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 7796.8 0.964 13 0 E 1
4 Adelphi 3293.4 0.928 12 1 E 2
13 LIU Post 940.7 0.840 10 3 E 4
14 Assumption 873.9 0.834 10 3 E 17
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16 Mercy 523.3 0.782 10 4 E 14T
17 Bentley 512.9 0.780 8 3 E 19
18 NYIT 480.0 0.773 10 3 E 24
19 New Haven 452.9 0.766 9 4 E 16
South Region Preview
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
3 Rollins 4227.8 0.940 12 1 S 5T
5 Florida Southern 3126.7 0.925 13 2 S 7
6 Tampa 2370.9 0.910 10 3 S 5T
7 Queens (NC) 1429.0 0.875 13 2 S 13
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8 Saint Leo 1413.1 0.874 13 2 S 21
12 Limestone 960.6 0.842 14 2 S 10
22 Lenoir-Rhyne 327.0 0.727 9 5 S
24 Alabama-Huntsville 311.9 0.721 11 3 S
Atlantic Region Preview
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
11 West Chester 1158.1 0.858 11 2 A 8
15 East Stroudsburg 715.6 0.815 11 3 A 11
27 Bloomsburg 289.1 0.712 9 3 A
30 Georgian Court 239.1 0.687 9 4 A
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31 Seton HIll 234.2 0.685 7 6 A
33 Mercyhurst 199.1 0.663 8 5 A
35 Indiana (PA) 178.2 0.647 7 5 A 25
42 Kutztown 127.3 0.600 6 4 A
Midwest Region Preview
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
2 Regis (CO) 7121.2 0.961 13 0 M 9
9 Lindenwood (MO) 1396.4 0.873 12 1 M 3
10 Indianapolis 1250.9 0.865 13 1 M 12
20 Colorado Mesa 446.4 0.764 10 3 M 14T
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21 Grand Valley State 395.4 0.750 10 3 M 22
36 Rockhurst 164.2 0.636 7 5 M
37 Tiffin 163.7 0.636 8 6 M
38 Findlay 148.6 0.622 7 7 M
41 McKendree 132.6 0.606 8 6 M
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:23 pm
by laxdad
Thanks for all of the time and thought that goes into these posts. What do you guys think needs to happen to move the number 5 team in each region into the NCAA tourney and knock one of the others out? Thanks
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:42 pm
by RedFromMI
A lot depends on the region...
And we will get some real information Wednesday afternoon when the first regional ranking is released.
But just looking at W-L records - in the East I would say that the bottom pair of teams are fluid at this point - my ratings do not completely mirror the multiple criteria that the NCAA actually uses. In particular SOS measures are completely different. Either LIU Post or Assumption could drop down if they take another loss or two...
In the South, I expect Saint Leo to gather more losses - and remove themselves from the picture. If they did win out, however, they would probably get a spot. Queens losing to Mount Olive could move them out of the top four as Limestone has beaten Mount Olive, and then also would one fewer loss (assuming they don't lose to Mount Olive in the Conference Carolinas tournament...
In the Atlantic region - I think East Stroudsburg and West Chester are safe. The others depend on future games too much.
Midwest - I think the top 3 are set, with only the last spot open...between Mesa and GVSU.
We shall see on Wednesday how close my predictions are for now...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:57 pm
by laxdad
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:42 pm
A lot depends on the region...
And we will get some real information Wednesday afternoon when the first regional ranking is released.
Is the regional rankings posted by the NCAA?
But just looking at W-L records - in the East I would say that the bottom pair of teams are fluid at this point - my ratings do not completely mirror the multiple criteria that the NCAA actually uses. In particular SOS measures are completely different. Either LIU Post or Assumption could drop down if they take another loss or two...
In the South, I expect Saint Leo to gather more losses - and remove themselves from the picture. If they did win out, however, they would probably get a spot. Queens losing to Mount Olive could move them out of the top four as Limestone has beaten Mount Olive, and then also would one fewer loss (assuming they don't lose to Mount Olive in the Conference Carolinas tournament...
You mention St Leo winning out. Is that just their last two games against Tampa and FIT, or will they need to win a game or two in conference tourney?
In the Atlantic region - I think East Stroudsburg and West Chester are safe. The others depend on future games too much.
Midwest - I think the top 3 are set, with only the last spot open...between Mesa and GVSU.
You mention SOS. Lindenwood has a very weak SOS. How much does NCAA take that into consideration?
We shall see on Wednesday how close my predictions are for now...
Should be an exciting finish
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:16 pm
by peanutgallery
RedFromMI wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:42 pm
A lot depends on the region...
Agreed...
And we will get some real information Wednesday afternoon when the first regional ranking is released.
But just looking at W-L records - in the East I would say that the bottom pair of teams are fluid at this point - my ratings do not completely mirror the multiple criteria that the NCAA actually uses. In particular SOS measures are completely different. Either LIU Post or Assumption could drop down if they take another loss or two...
Bentley has the better opportunity....beat Merrimack and LIU Post and I think they make it in. Assumption would need to go to the finals of their tournament to beef up their resume
In the South, I expect Saint Leo to gather more losses - and remove themselves from the picture. If they did win out, however, they would probably get a spot. Queens losing to Mount Olive could move them out of the top four as Limestone has beaten Mount Olive, and then also would one fewer loss (assuming they don't lose to Mount Olive in the Conference Carolinas tournament...
For St.Leo...they would need a win over Tampa and at least one win in their tournament. Even with that, I would think you would need both Limestone and Queens to get bounced in the first round of their Tournament. For Limestone, I think a Queens loss to Mount Olive and Limestone subsequently beating them in the tournament would give them a shot
In the Atlantic region - I think East Stroudsburg and West Chester are safe. The others depend on future games too much.
I think ( I don't agree with it...) that Georgian Court failing an all out collapse will get one slot for not being in the PSAC. Thus,
Seton Hill would need to win out and win a game in the conference tournament. Even then, Bloomsburg would need to lose to East Stroudsburg and West Chester. An additional loss to IUP would really prop up Seton Hill. Mercyhurst would need to beat East Stroudsburg and probably win the PSAC tournament. I think they have some questionable losses. IUP to me has a better shot than Mercyhurst
Midwest - I think the top 3 are set, with only the last spot open...between Mesa and GVSU.
GVSU would need to win the GLIAC and beat Indianapolis. Nonetheless, I am not sure it would be enough
We shall see on Wednesday how close my predictions are for now...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:44 pm
by leeatu
laxdad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:57 pm
Is the regional rankings posted by the NCAA?
Yes. Go to the NCAA D2 Women's Lacrosse (or any D2 sport) page and click [Rankings], then select [Regional Rankings] in the rankings dropdown menu.
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:45 am
by RedFromMI
leeatu wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:44 pm
laxdad wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:57 pm
Is the regional rankings posted by the NCAA?
Yes. Go to the NCAA D2 Women's Lacrosse (or any D2 sport) page and click [Rankings], then select [Regional Rankings] in the rankings dropdown menu.
Even better - at the bottom of the ranking page (D2 only) there should be links to the raw data used for the calculations (such as W-L %, SOS, etc.) - with the exception of any head-to-head data. That will be for every school in each region (data segregated by region)...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:01 pm
by peanutgallery
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:25 pm
by RedFromMI
Thanks for posting the link - if you follow it today (Tuesday April 16) or first part of the day tomorrow, it is the last published one from 2018. But the new one should go live sometime tomorrow afternoon...
Re: KRACH Ratings for Womens DII
Posted: Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:08 pm
by RedFromMI
Games through Saturday April 20 (no games tomorrow on Easter), DII vs. DII only
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 14348.5 0.966 15 0 E 1(25)
2 Regis (CO) 13287.0 0.964 15 0 M 4
3 Rollins 7503.4 0.943 13 1 S 3
4 Adelphi 5337.7 0.927 14 1 E 2
5 Florida Southern 5227.4 0.926 14 2 S 5
6 Tampa 5005.6 0.924 12 3 S 6
7 Queens (NC) 2810.0 0.889 15 2 S 10
8 Lindenwood (MO) 2707.6 0.886 15 1 M 8
9 Indianapolis 2201.0 0.871 15 1 M 12
10 West Chester 2134.1 0.869 13 2 A 7
11 LIU Post 2022.7 0.865 12 3 E 9
12 Limestone 1732.8 0.852 15 2 S 13
13 Saint Leo 1298.5 0.827 13 4 S 22
14 Assumption 964.7 0.798 11 4 E 17
15 East Stroudsburg 934.7 0.795 12 4 A 11
16 Mercy 848.8 0.785 12 4 E 14
17 Bentley 762.8 0.773 9 5 E 21
18 Colorado Mesa 760.4 0.773 11 3 M 15
19 NYIT 748.0 0.771 12 3 E 20
20 New Haven 681.3 0.760 10 5 E 16
21 Grand Valley State 663.5 0.757 11 3 M 23
22 Pace 652.6 0.755 9 6 E 19
23 Lenoir-Rhyne 553.9 0.736 11 5 S
24 Alabama-Huntsville 520.1 0.729 13 3 S
25 Mercyhurst 477.6 0.718 10 5 A
26 Florida Tech 433.6 0.706 7 8 S
27 Mount Olive 430.0 0.705 11 5 S 24
28 Seton HIll 409.4 0.699 9 6 A
29 Embry-Riddle 396.6 0.695 8 7 S
30 Merrimack 390.0 0.693 7 6 E 18
31 Georgian Court 362.1 0.683 10 5 A
32 Indiana (PA) 360.0 0.682 9 5 A 25
33 Bloomsburg 358.3 0.682 9 5 A
34 Tiffin 321.5 0.667 9 6 M
35 Roberts Wesleyan 301.3 0.658 10 4 E
36 Rockhurst 242.5 0.629 8 6 M
37 Young Harris 230.2 0.621 8 6 S
38 Stonehill 228.8 0.621 7 8 E
39 Millersville 224.6 0.618 9 6 A
40 Lincoln Memorial 218.0 0.614 10 5 S
41 McKendree 210.2 0.609 8 6 M
42 Findlay 205.9 0.606 7 8 M
43 Catawba 193.6 0.597 8 8 S
44 Molloy 189.6 0.594 10 6 E
45 Slippery Rock 183.4 0.589 5 7 A
46 Concordia-St. Paul 171.5 0.580 9 5 M
47 Saint Anselm 163.9 0.573 7 7 E
48 Wingate 158.0 0.568 8 8 S
49 Belmont Abbey 148.7 0.559 10 7 S
50 Walsh 147.4 0.558 8 3 M
51 UVA-Wise 143.2 0.554 8 5 M
52 Kutztown 142.5 0.553 6 6 A
53 Shepherd 114.7 0.522 9 4 M
54 CSU-Pueblo 114.2 0.521 4 7 M
55 Thomas Jefferson 106.9 0.511 8 4 A
56 Wheeling Jesuit 106.0 0.510 10 5 M
57 Colorado -ColSprings 100.5 0.502 5 7 M
58 S. New Hampshire 97.3 0.498 5 9 E
59 Bridgeport 93.8 0.492 8 6 E
60 Lake Erie 82.1 0.473 7 6 M
61 Franklin Pierce 81.1 0.471 6 8 E
62 Shippensburg 77.1 0.464 4 10 A
63 Westminster 76.1 0.462 3 8 M
64 Davenport 73.9 0.458 7 7 M
65 Palm Beach Atlantic 69.0 0.448 4 9 S
66 North Greenville 67.1 0.444 8 7 S
67 Barton 53.7 0.412 8 6 S
68 Edinboro 53.4 0.411 3 12 A
69 Davis & Elkins 51.7 0.406 6 5 M
70 Chestnut Hill 42.1 0.378 4 7 A
71 St. Thomas Aquinas 38.7 0.366 7 7 E
72 American International 36.8 0.359 4 11 E
73 Montevallo 36.2 0.357 5 8 S
74 Lock Haven 35.9 0.356 3 12 A
75 Wilmington 35.0 0.353 7 8 A
76 Northern Michigan 34.4 0.350 4 11 M
77 Shorter 29.4 0.329 5 7 S
78 Notre Dame (OH) 27.3 0.319 6 9 M
79 Fort Lewis 27.3 0.319 2 6 M
80 Charleston 25.0 0.308 4 10 M
81 Saint Michael's 24.9 0.307 3 10 E
82 Coker 24.6 0.305 5 8 S
83 Gannon 23.2 0.298 2 12 A
84 S. Connecticut State 21.7 0.289 2 13 E
85 Ashland 20.8 0.284 4 9 M
86 Mars Hill 18.8 0.271 5 10 S
87 Dominican (NY) 17.8 0.265 4 8 A
88 Caldwell 17.2 0.261 4 9 A
89 Tusculum 16.6 0.256 4 12 S
90 Lee 16.4 0.255 3 11 S
91 Ursuline 15.5 0.248 2 8 M
92 Ohio Valley 14.5 0.241 3 7 M
93 Nyack 13.0 0.228 5 9 A
94 Southern Wesleyan 9.8 0.197 4 9 S
95 West Va Wesleyan 9.8 0.197 2 11 M
96 Maryville (MO) 8.4 0.181 2 12 M
97 Converse 8.3 0.181 4 8 S
98 Oklahoma Baptist 7.7 0.173 1 7 M
99 Lewis 7.6 0.171 1 10 M
100 Newberry 7.5 0.170 3 14 S
101 Holy Family 6.6 0.158 3 9 A
102 Queens (NY) 5.9 0.148 2 14 E
103 Alderson-Broadus 5.8 0.147 1 12 M
104 Post 5.0 0.133 2 11 A
105 Erskine 4.0 0.115 3 12 S
106 Adams State 3.4 0.103 0 11 M
107 Lees-McRae 3.3 0.102 2 10 S
108 Emmanuel (GA) 2.0 0.072 1 10 S
109 Felician 2.0 0.070 0 9 A
110 Chowan 1.6 0.060 1 12 S
111 Univ. of DC 1.1 0.042 0 13 E
East Region list (4 from each region into NCAA tourney):
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
1 Le Moyne 14348.5 0.966 15 0 E 1(25)
4 Adelphi 5337.7 0.927 14 1 E 2
11 LIU Post 2022.7 0.865 12 3 E 9
14 Assumption 964.7 0.798 11 4 E 17
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16 Mercy 848.8 0.785 12 4 E 14
17 Bentley 762.8 0.773 9 5 E 21
19 NYIT 748.0 0.771 12 3 E 20
20 New Haven 681.3 0.760 10 5 E 16
Atlantic Region list (4 from each region into NCAA tourney):
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
10 West Chester 2134.1 0.869 13 2 A 7
15 East Stroudsburg 934.7 0.795 12 4 A 11
25 Mercyhurst 477.6 0.718 10 5 A
28 Seton HIll 409.4 0.699 9 6 A
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31 Georgian Court 362.1 0.683 10 5 A
32 Indiana (PA) 360.0 0.682 9 5 A 25
33 Bloomsburg 358.3 0.682 9 5 A
39 Millersville 224.6 0.618 9 6 A
Midwest Region list (4 from each region into NCAA tourney):
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
2 Regis (CO) 13287.0 0.964 15 0 M 4
8 Lindenwood (MO) 2707.6 0.886 15 1 M 8
9 Indianapolis 2201.0 0.871 15 1 M 12
18 Colorado Mesa 760.4 0.773 11 3 M 15
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21 Grand Valley State 663.5 0.757 11 3 M 23
34 Tiffin 321.5 0.667 9 6 M
36 Rockhurst 242.5 0.629 8 6 M
41 McKendree 210.2 0.609 8 6 M
South Region list (4 from each region into NCAA tourney):
Code: Select all
Rank School KRACH RRWP W L Region Poll
3 Rollins 7503.4 0.943 13 1 S 3
5 Florida Southern 5227.4 0.926 14 2 S 5
6 Tampa 5005.6 0.924 12 3 S 6
7 Queens (NC) 2810.0 0.889 15 2 S 10
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12 Limestone 1732.8 0.852 15 2 S 13
13 Saint Leo 1298.5 0.827 13 4 S 22
23 Lenoir-Rhyne 553.9 0.736 11 5 S
24 Alabama-Huntsville 520.1 0.729 13 3 S