Johns Hopkins 2024

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51percentcorn
Posts: 1525
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:54 am

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by 51percentcorn »

OCanada wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:07 pm My assumption is 5 star is projected to have a greater impact than a 4 star. The biggest contributor to this year was the new OC not the recruiting class; plus the two transfers one of which is a local. He played lax at the same school as my son.

I still fail to see a convincing argument for how JHU improves its final result next year over this year unless the team strikes the mother load at the portal. I would like to see a convincing one though. Let us keep in mind that is what i am saying: thete won’t be a jump in relative position at the end

Time will reveal how things work out
IMO - the new OC had alot more to work with in '23 unless you are clinging to the notion Keogh and Epstein were not significantly compriomised by injury (Keogh also forced to play out of position - he was an Angelus type assist attackman not a midfielder) and something was wrong with DeSimone as his production plummeted from the year before. They average 1.5 goals a game more than in '22 - that's certainly better - it not revelationary and the introduction of Melendez and Collison along with the more steady health of Grimes/Peshko etc can explain that differential just as well.

State of the Program IMO

Reason for Optimism:
- If Angelus returns - roughly 80% of the scoring returns
- If Szuluk returns - Core 5 of the longpoles is experienced and talented even with losing Mazzone
- Another year in the same offensive system
- If Jaronski returns - all 4 SSDMs return and the 1st pair typically can stand on their own when healthy - Raposo has shown some flashes of quickness and is dangerous in transition
- Recruiting class - given that Freshmen are back as significant contributors - looks strong and targeted in terms of need
- This is conjecture but a team that was successful - returns alot - and has a decent culture typically wants to move forward - they should be more confident and expect more of themselves
- The rising seniors - a couple of them never played in '21 - Bauer and Evans on offense - so they really just finished their sophomore season in terms of eligibility - Bauer went from 4 and 2 in '22 to 9 and 7 in 23 - Evans went from 6 and 3 to 8 and 4 - another leap in their real junior season is not out of the question.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Goalie - after starting 68/57/58 and 50 in his first 4 games and then throwing in a 70% and a 59% against Syracuse and Navy - Marcille finished below 50% for the year - he finished with 8/8/6/10/7 (3 quarters)/6 Saves - Webb and Verdi are completely unknown quantities. If you missed out on the Cornell goalie that's the glaring hole.

Face-offs - once thought to be a strength for this year - Narewski's injury and inconsistency from the other two led to a below 50% for the year even with Mazzone and Hawley's contributions from the wings. Timing was sometimes horrible too. Close the game to 7-6 - ND looks a tiny bit wobbly - and then they roll off 4 or 5 straight FO wins - the only time in the game that happened. That 3 goal 5 minute stretch stretch was the ball game.
You needed the ball after Collison scored.

Finding an inside presence - while the motion/positionless offense can argue against it - the single real weakness I see in the Hopkins offense is the lack of an inside catch and finisher. While the cutting and motion can leave guys open on the inside for easy shots a consistent presence of a Dickson/Cormier/Williams type creates so much havoc and opportunities for others as well as themselves.

The scheme - whatever it is - for replacing Degnon does not work - 2 x 40 goal scorers while shooting over 35% do not grow on trees - Hopkins would appear to have some options - Grimes - Sorichetti - Collison. BTW - I am fine with Collison playing attack - I would NOT pull out the Handley UPenn scheme where everybody waits for him to gather himself and run in from the mid-field.

Opponents - While Anish and Inside Lacrosse seem to be trying to will Notre Dame to the championship - look at the web-site this AM - I believe this year the UVA mountain will be too hard to climb - especially if Nunes is playing well. If you went into a lab and designed a team to handle Notre Dame - UVA is pretty much what you would come up with. Next year, however, the Irish could be pretty formidable - other than Fake and maybe Tevlin they don't lose anything that is not replacable and someone said they are the front runners for Handley (?). Syracuse - especially if they get English's brother and some others couldn't be more loaded on offense - UVA despite losing LaSalla/Dickson/Saustad still has plenty and Duke's attack returns en masse. While you might think OSU and Rutgers have alot of holes to fill - The Terps will be better and PSU has Fracyon and Mich is loaded on offense and appears to have found a goalie. Doesn't look like '24 will be loaded with easy outs.
jhu06
Posts: 2700
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:43 am

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by jhu06 »

51percentcorn wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 9:20 am
OCanada wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:07 pm My assumption is 5 star is projected to have a greater impact than a 4 star. The biggest contributor to this year was the new OC not the recruiting class; plus the two transfers one of which is a local. He played lax at the same school as my son.

I still fail to see a convincing argument for how JHU improves its final result next year over this year unless the team strikes the mother load at the portal. I would like to see a convincing one though. Let us keep in mind that is what i am saying: thete won’t be a jump in relative position at the end

Time will reveal how things work out
IMO - the new OC had alot more to work with in '23 unless you are clinging to the notion Keogh and Epstein were not significantly compriomised by injury (Keogh also forced to play out of position - he was an Angelus type assist attackman not a midfielder) and something was wrong with DeSimone as his production plummeted from the year before. They average 1.5 goals a game more than in '22 - that's certainly better - it not revelationary and the introduction of Melendez and Collison along with the more steady health of Grimes/Peshko etc can explain that differential just as well.

State of the Program IMO

Reason for Optimism:
- If Angelus returns - roughly 80% of the scoring returns
- If Szuluk returns - Core 5 of the longpoles is experienced and talented even with losing Mazzone
- Another year in the same offensive system
- If Jaronski returns - all 4 SSDMs return and the 1st pair typically can stand on their own when healthy - Raposo has shown some flashes of quickness and is dangerous in transition
- Recruiting class - given that Freshmen are back as significant contributors - looks strong and targeted in terms of need
- This is conjecture but a team that was successful - returns alot - and has a decent culture typically wants to move forward - they should be more confident and expect more of themselves
- The rising seniors - a couple of them never played in '21 - Bauer and Evans on offense - so they really just finished their sophomore season in terms of eligibility - Bauer went from 4 and 2 in '22 to 9 and 7 in 23 - Evans went from 6 and 3 to 8 and 4 - another leap in their real junior season is not out of the question.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Goalie - after starting 68/57/58 and 50 in his first 4 games and then throwing in a 70% and a 59% against Syracuse and Navy - Marcille finished below 50% for the year - he finished with 8/8/6/10/7 (3 quarters)/6 Saves - Webb and Verdi are completely unknown quantities. If you missed out on the Cornell goalie that's the glaring hole.

Face-offs - once thought to be a strength for this year - Narewski's injury and inconsistency from the other two led to a below 50% for the year even with Mazzone and Hawley's contributions from the wings. Timing was sometimes horrible too. Close the game to 7-6 - ND looks a tiny bit wobbly - and then they roll off 4 or 5 straight FO wins - the only time in the game that happened. That 3 goal 5 minute stretch stretch was the ball game.
You needed the ball after Collison scored.

Finding an inside presence - while the motion/positionless offense can argue against it - the single real weakness I see in the Hopkins offense is the lack of an inside catch and finisher. While the cutting and motion can leave guys open on the inside for easy shots a consistent presence of a Dickson/Cormier/Williams type creates so much havoc and opportunities for others as well as themselves.

The scheme - whatever it is - for replacing Degnon does not work - 2 x 40 goal scorers while shooting over 35% do not grow on trees - Hopkins would appear to have some options - Grimes - Sorichetti - Collison. BTW - I am fine with Collison playing attack - I would NOT pull out the Handley UPenn scheme where everybody waits for him to gather himself and run in from the mid-field.

Opponents - While Anish and Inside Lacrosse seem to be trying to will Notre Dame to the championship - look at the web-site this AM - I believe this year the UVA mountain will be too hard to climb - especially if Nunes is playing well. If you went into a lab and designed a team to handle Notre Dame - UVA is pretty much what you would come up with. Next year, however, the Irish could be pretty formidable - other than Fake and maybe Tevlin they don't lose anything that is not replacable and someone said they are the front runners for Handley (?). Syracuse - especially if they get English's brother and some others couldn't be more loaded on offense - UVA despite losing LaSalla/Dickson/Saustad still has plenty and Duke's attack returns en masse. While you might think OSU and Rutgers have alot of holes to fill - The Terps will be better and PSU has Fracyon and Mich is loaded on offense and appears to have found a goalie. Doesn't look like '24 will be loaded with easy outs.
Peshko had that role inside on manup and I believe was replaced by Marquis.
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HopFan16
Posts: 5955
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by HopFan16 »

A lot in 51's post I agree with but a couple things:

- Handley is reportedly moving on from college lax and will play PLL this summer
- ND loses a lot more than just Fake and Tevlin — also a 2nd starting defenseman, LSM, and Quinn McCahon. One could also argue Fake and Tevlin have been their two most important players this year. We'll see how they do in the portal but 2023 is their shot IMO
- In addition to Bauer and Evans, Chauvette and McDermott (in fewer games) also improved their production — that's four middies (+Grimes) who you could convincingly said "developed" — while not into AAs, that's not nothing. It wasn't that long ago you looked up and down the roster and said to yourself, "it doesn't really seem like anyone is getting better."
- Inconsistent and occasionally frustrating yes but Grimes going from 14 to 34 points was important and no matter how much jhu06 cries about it, he's not going anywhere. There isn't a coach in the country who wouldn't want a 6'4'' lefty sniper who gets you 2 points per game from the midfield. Needs to finish better in close — how many times was he stoned on the doorstep this year? Should have had another 5 goals
- Even if Marcille returns, they could still look to the portal. Tim should know better than anyone, as good as he was in moments this year, 49-50% on the season doesn't save you from competition or having to earn the spot again
- Sorichetti can be that inside presence, would kill two birds with one stone by taking over the lefty attack spot while adding inside finishing ability. But then maybe you're losing the stretch shooting that a Collison or Grimes would bring in that role — will be an interesting decision
JeremyCuse
Posts: 451
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:55 pm

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by JeremyCuse »

51percentcorn wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 9:20 am
OCanada wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:07 pm My assumption is 5 star is projected to have a greater impact than a 4 star. The biggest contributor to this year was the new OC not the recruiting class; plus the two transfers one of which is a local. He played lax at the same school as my son.

I still fail to see a convincing argument for how JHU improves its final result next year over this year unless the team strikes the mother load at the portal. I would like to see a convincing one though. Let us keep in mind that is what i am saying: thete won’t be a jump in relative position at the end

Time will reveal how things work out
IMO - the new OC had alot more to work with in '23 unless you are clinging to the notion Keogh and Epstein were not significantly compriomised by injury (Keogh also forced to play out of position - he was an Angelus type assist attackman not a midfielder) and something was wrong with DeSimone as his production plummeted from the year before. They average 1.5 goals a game more than in '22 - that's certainly better - it not revelationary and the introduction of Melendez and Collison along with the more steady health of Grimes/Peshko etc can explain that differential just as well.

State of the Program IMO

Reason for Optimism:
- If Angelus returns - roughly 80% of the scoring returns
- If Szuluk returns - Core 5 of the longpoles is experienced and talented even with losing Mazzone
- Another year in the same offensive system
- If Jaronski returns - all 4 SSDMs return and the 1st pair typically can stand on their own when healthy - Raposo has shown some flashes of quickness and is dangerous in transition
- Recruiting class - given that Freshmen are back as significant contributors - looks strong and targeted in terms of need
- This is conjecture but a team that was successful - returns alot - and has a decent culture typically wants to move forward - they should be more confident and expect more of themselves
- The rising seniors - a couple of them never played in '21 - Bauer and Evans on offense - so they really just finished their sophomore season in terms of eligibility - Bauer went from 4 and 2 in '22 to 9 and 7 in 23 - Evans went from 6 and 3 to 8 and 4 - another leap in their real junior season is not out of the question.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Goalie - after starting 68/57/58 and 50 in his first 4 games and then throwing in a 70% and a 59% against Syracuse and Navy - Marcille finished below 50% for the year - he finished with 8/8/6/10/7 (3 quarters)/6 Saves - Webb and Verdi are completely unknown quantities. If you missed out on the Cornell goalie that's the glaring hole.

Face-offs - once thought to be a strength for this year - Narewski's injury and inconsistency from the other two led to a below 50% for the year even with Mazzone and Hawley's contributions from the wings. Timing was sometimes horrible too. Close the game to 7-6 - ND looks a tiny bit wobbly - and then they roll off 4 or 5 straight FO wins - the only time in the game that happened. That 3 goal 5 minute stretch stretch was the ball game.
You needed the ball after Collison scored.

Finding an inside presence - while the motion/positionless offense can argue against it - the single real weakness I see in the Hopkins offense is the lack of an inside catch and finisher. While the cutting and motion can leave guys open on the inside for easy shots a consistent presence of a Dickson/Cormier/Williams type creates so much havoc and opportunities for others as well as themselves.

The scheme - whatever it is - for replacing Degnon does not work - 2 x 40 goal scorers while shooting over 35% do not grow on trees - Hopkins would appear to have some options - Grimes - Sorichetti - Collison. BTW - I am fine with Collison playing attack - I would NOT pull out the Handley UPenn scheme where everybody waits for him to gather himself and run in from the mid-field.

Opponents - While Anish and Inside Lacrosse seem to be trying to will Notre Dame to the championship - look at the web-site this AM - I believe this year the UVA mountain will be too hard to climb - especially if Nunes is playing well. If you went into a lab and designed a team to handle Notre Dame - UVA is pretty much what you would come up with. Next year, however, the Irish could be pretty formidable - other than Fake and maybe Tevlin they don't lose anything that is not replacable and someone said they are the front runners for Handley (?). Syracuse - especially if they get English's brother and some others couldn't be more loaded on offense - UVA despite losing LaSalla/Dickson/Saustad still has plenty and Duke's attack returns en masse. While you might think OSU and Rutgers have alot of holes to fill - The Terps will be better and PSU has Fracyon and Mich is loaded on offense and appears to have found a goalie. Doesn't look like '24 will be loaded with easy outs.
Handley isn't using his 5th year and is turning pro. ND loses a good chunk of its defense - Tevlin, Fake, Conlin, Boyer and McCahon are all out of eligibility. They do bring back a lot offensively assuming everyone who has a Covid year takes it. The following year is the max edous when Kavanagh, Reilly, Taylor. Entenmann and others are gone.
OCanada
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by OCanada »

51percentcorn wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 9:20 am
OCanada wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:07 pm My assumption is 5 star is projected to have a greater impact than a 4 star. The biggest contributor to this year was the new OC not the recruiting class; plus the two transfers one of which is a local. He played lax at the same school as my son.

I still fail to see a convincing argument for how JHU improves its final result next year over this year unless the team strikes the mother load at the portal. I would like to see a convincing one though. Let us keep in mind that is what i am saying: thete won’t be a jump in relative position at the end

Time will reveal how things work out
IMO - the new OC had alot more to work with in '23 unless you are clinging to the notion Keogh and Epstein were not significantly compriomised by injury (Keogh also forced to play out of position - he was an Angelus type assist attackman not a midfielder) and something was wrong with DeSimone as his production plummeted from the year before. They average 1.5 goals a game more than in '22 - that's certainly better - it not revelationary and the introduction of Melendez and Collison along with the more steady health of Grimes/Peshko etc can explain that differential just as well.

State of the Program IMO

Reason for Optimism:
- If Angelus returns - roughly 80% of the scoring returns
- If Szuluk returns - Core 5 of the longpoles is experienced and talented even with losing Mazzone
- Another year in the same offensive system
- If Jaronski returns - all 4 SSDMs return and the 1st pair typically can stand on their own when healthy - Raposo has shown some flashes of quickness and is dangerous in transition
- Recruiting class - given that Freshmen are back as significant contributors - looks strong and targeted in terms of need
- This is conjecture but a team that was successful - returns alot - and has a decent culture typically wants to move forward - they should be more confident and expect more of themselves
- The rising seniors - a couple of them never played in '21 - Bauer and Evans on offense - so they really just finished their sophomore season in terms of eligibility - Bauer went from 4 and 2 in '22 to 9 and 7 in 23 - Evans went from 6 and 3 to 8 and 4 - another leap in their real junior season is not out of the question.

Reasons for Pessimism:
Goalie - after starting 68/57/58 and 50 in his first 4 games and then throwing in a 70% and a 59% against Syracuse and Navy - Marcille finished below 50% for the year - he finished with 8/8/6/10/7 (3 quarters)/6 Saves - Webb and Verdi are completely unknown quantities. If you missed out on the Cornell goalie that's the glaring hole.

Face-offs - once thought to be a strength for this year - Narewski's injury and inconsistency from the other two led to a below 50% for the year even with Mazzone and Hawley's contributions from the wings. Timing was sometimes horrible too. Close the game to 7-6 - ND looks a tiny bit wobbly - and then they roll off 4 or 5 straight FO wins - the only time in the game that happened. That 3 goal 5 minute stretch stretch was the ball game.
You needed the ball after Collison scored.

Finding an inside presence - while the motion/positionless offense can argue against it - the single real weakness I see in the Hopkins offense is the lack of an inside catch and finisher. While the cutting and motion can leave guys open on the inside for easy shots a consistent presence of a Dickson/Cormier/Williams type creates so much havoc and opportunities for others as well as themselves.

The scheme - whatever it is - for replacing Degnon does not work - 2 x 40 goal scorers while shooting over 35% do not grow on trees - Hopkins would appear to have some options - Grimes - Sorichetti - Collison. BTW - I am fine with Collison playing attack - I would NOT pull out the Handley UPenn scheme where everybody waits for him to gather himself and run in from the mid-field.

Opponents - While Anish and Inside Lacrosse seem to be trying to will Notre Dame to the championship - look at the web-site this AM - I believe this year the UVA mountain will be too hard to climb - especially if Nunes is playing well. If you went into a lab and designed a team to handle Notre Dame - UVA is pretty much what you would come up with. Next year, however, the Irish could be pretty formidable - other than Fake and maybe Tevlin they don't lose anything that is not replacable and someone said they are the front runners for Handley (?). Syracuse - especially if they get English's brother and some others couldn't be more loaded on offense - UVA despite losing LaSalla/Dickson/Saustad still has plenty and Duke's attack returns en masse. While you might think OSU and Rutgers have alot of holes to fill - The Terps will be better and PSU has Fracyon and Mich is loaded on offense and appears to have found a goalie. Doesn't look like '24 will be loaded with easy outs.
Except for the first part i in agreement. Tsle t alone does not gst it done. The OC for the first two years was a disaster. The O was sithout form or substance. Ceowlet gave it form and direction it did not have becore. Grant was not even getting along with PM.
OCanada
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by OCanada »

HopFan16 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 2:13 pm
OCanada wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 2:03 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:37 pm
OCanada wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 1:07 pm I still fail to see a convincing argument for how JHU improves its final result next year over this year unless the team strikes the mother load at the portal.
That's what a lot of people said prior to this season

We're bringing back a lot of production on both ends of the field plus a talented freshman class and year 4 of the new regime + year 2 of Crawley and more time to build rapport/culture/chemistry plus whatever they grab through the portal. I don't know if we'll make the Final Four next year — it's really hard to do and the ACC big 3 will still be there and Maryland will probably be better — but outside of those handful of teams who are you definitely taking over the Jays? Looking at some other tournament teams...Georgetown and Princeton sure do lose a lot. Jays will be in the mix. That's all you can really ask for these days
Your reading comprehension is really lacking but you know that right. Make your case Hopkins will get yo the FF next year. Basically you have only repeated that teams that were there this year will be there next year. Blinding flash of the obviou. How does Hopkins pass them. I said i don’t see it happening until after the 5th year is done. You ignored that, if you disagree say why and give your reasoning.
The Jays were a quarterfinalist who kept it close and returns a lot. That's how they can make the Final Four.

You took my post too literally. By "still be there" I meant "those teams will likely still be good." I did not mean they are all locks to return to the Final Four. Hopkins will be among a group that includes but is not limited to Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, and likely Maryland competing for spots in the FF.

I'm unconvinced that Penn State can repeat as a FF team again next year. So even if you assume the ACC 3 are back in it, which you shouldn't, then that's one open spot for which Hopkins is positioned fairly well to take. Does it mean they will? Of course not. But if you can't even envision an argument for it, then you're trying not to see one
You live to speak for others don’t you. Essentially you are saying Hopkins will be in the mix but don’t have a path you can point to for them making up the difference between them and the top programs of the last couple of years. Looking at the field i don’t see the gap closing without the portal. I don’t see the recruiting making up the difference yet. Maybe in another year or two. Once the portal essentially shuts down. Or maybe this year we get a face off, goalie and a couple of O. That would make a huge difference.
DocBarrister
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by DocBarrister »

See no reason why this Blue Jay team couldn’t be a serious contender for the Final Four and national championship in 2024.

They have some great upperclassmen returning and some talented underclassmen whose contributions are only likely to grow. If they can build more depth and fill some areas of need through the incoming class and the portal, they have as good a shot as any other team. Indeed, Hopkins will lose less to graduation or the portal than most of this year’s Final Four teams (yes, the DocBarrister Principle is back).

Time to set goals where they should be for this program.

DocBarrister 8-)
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a fan
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by a fan »

Ruffled_Feathers wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 2:50 pm I think some of you need to reframe your idea of what the "next step" is. While making the final four next year would be awesome, the "next step" is actually being good and relevant two years in a row which means tourney appearance and hopefully QF participation. While its certainly not a given in the slightest there is likely enough coming back/improving and showing up through the normal avenues that they can possibly do that barring injuries.
I'd like to think that as fans, we've reached the understanding that post shot clock, it's REALLY hard to make the NCAA's.

I think folks need to adjust expectations accordingly. Or not.
DocBarrister
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by DocBarrister »

a fan wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 12:49 pm
Ruffled_Feathers wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 2:50 pm I think some of you need to reframe your idea of what the "next step" is. While making the final four next year would be awesome, the "next step" is actually being good and relevant two years in a row which means tourney appearance and hopefully QF participation. While its certainly not a given in the slightest there is likely enough coming back/improving and showing up through the normal avenues that they can possibly do that barring injuries.
I'd like to think that as fans, we've reached the understanding that post shot clock, it's REALLY hard to make the NCAA's.

I think folks need to adjust expectations accordingly. Or not.
Making the NCAA tournament has never been easy. It was hard 50 years ago, and it’s hard now.

DocBarrister 8-)
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by Big Dog »

DocBarrister wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 12:54 pm
a fan wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 12:49 pm
Ruffled_Feathers wrote: Mon May 22, 2023 2:50 pm I think some of you need to reframe your idea of what the "next step" is. While making the final four next year would be awesome, the "next step" is actually being good and relevant two years in a row which means tourney appearance and hopefully QF participation. While its certainly not a given in the slightest there is likely enough coming back/improving and showing up through the normal avenues that they can possibly do that barring injuries.
I'd like to think that as fans, we've reached the understanding that post shot clock, it's REALLY hard to make the NCAA's.

I think folks need to adjust expectations accordingly. Or not.
Making the NCAA tournament has never been easy. It was hard 50 years ago, and it’s hard now.

DocBarrister 8-)
Agree. The shot clock just made it a different game in which to compete. (And I personally believe that was Petro's main downfall.) Hop is a few key players away from competing on Memorial Day weekend.
nyjay
Posts: 1145
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by nyjay »

Big Dog wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 1:11 pm Agree. The shot clock just made it a different game in which to compete. (And I personally believe that was Petro's main downfall.) Hop is a few key players away from competing on Memorial Day weekend.
The shot clock started in the 2019 season, which was Petro's last full season. I don't think Petro's systems and ideas were well-suited to the shot clock era at all, but the downfall was well underway by 2019 unfortunately.

As to your second point, I generally agree, but the way I think about it, and my hope/expectation for the program is that, year to year, they be one of the teams that has a reasonable chance of making it to Memorial Day weekend. It's just really hard to get there with UVa, MD, Duke (I don't put ND in the same category) out there every year, combined with the one or two year wonders who pop up every year.

For the next couple of years, I don't think Hop is going to be a regular in the "receiving votes" category (or worse) in the polls anymore. Nor do I think they're going to miss the tournament on a regular basis. But having an expectation that they get beyond the quarters regularly is probably too optimistic. Memorial Day once every 5 years or so feels like it would be an enormous success given the current environment. Keep in mind we've been to Memorial Day ONCE in the last 15 seasons (and taken a fair number of total beatdowns in the process).
Sagittarius A*
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by Sagittarius A* »

Mazzone, Narewski, and Degnon (if he indeed leaves) will be hard to replace next year.
While there may be options to possibly replace the lefty sharpshooter, I don't see any way to replace Mazzone's production. I also don't think Narewski can be replaced unless they can get an elite FO man from the portal.
If Marcille leaves, there's a void between the pipes with Gib also leaving.
Again, the team would have to score big here in the transfer portal.
I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but returning to the QFs is no sure thing next year, much less winning it and advancing.
51percentcorn
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by 51percentcorn »

Sagittarius A* wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 2:31 pm Mazzone, Narewski, and Degnon (if he indeed leaves) will be hard to replace next year.
Sorry - none of those players have any choice but to leave - if you are thinking Narewski because he is listed as a senior - his freshman year at Hopkins was 2019 season so he played in '19/'21/''22/'23 - probably missed a bunch of school with the patellar tendon surgeries. Degnon played in 3 games in 2019 - don't know of any injury that qualifies as a medical redshirt so he is gone too.

Learn something new everyday - was unaware Handley had said nyet to a final college year. Also Notre Dame's bio on Conlin is confusing as they don't mention his 2022 season with Holy Cross. I thought he might have been hurt - losing two starting defensemen is significant - though even without Byrne the defense seems to be pretty good. IF this is indeed the Irish's best chance - I am not seeing the path by UVA if the Hoos are focused.

I agree with '16 100% - Even if Marcille returns - you need to expend all energy and resources to finding a goalie - and consider if $'s can make a difference in Ierlan if Duke has not locked it down. See Einstein's statement on insanity (though most seem to think he never said it).
jhu06
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by jhu06 »

HopFan16 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 11:08 am A lot in 51's post I agree with but a couple things:

- Handley is reportedly moving on from college lax and will play PLL this summer
- ND loses a lot more than just Fake and Tevlin — also a 2nd starting defenseman, LSM, and Quinn McCahon. One could also argue Fake and Tevlin have been their two most important players this year. We'll see how they do in the portal but 2023 is their shot IMO
- In addition to Bauer and Evans, Chauvette and McDermott (in fewer games) also improved their production — that's four middies (+Grimes) who you could convincingly said "developed" — while not into AAs, that's not nothing. It wasn't that long ago you looked up and down the roster and said to yourself, "it doesn't really seem like anyone is getting better."
- Inconsistent and occasionally frustrating yes but Grimes going from 14 to 34 points was important and no matter how much jhu06 cries about it, he's not going anywhere. There isn't a coach in the country who wouldn't want a 6'4'' lefty sniper who gets you 2 points per game from the midfield. Needs to finish better in close — how many times was he stoned on the doorstep this year? Should have had another 5 goals
- Even if Marcille returns, they could still look to the portal. Tim should know better than anyone, as good as he was in moments this year, 49-50% on the season doesn't save you from competition or having to earn the spot again
- Sorichetti can be that inside presence, would kill two birds with one stone by taking over the lefty attack spot while adding inside finishing ability. But then maybe you're losing the stretch shooting that a Collison or Grimes would bring in that role — will be an interesting decision
They played 18 games. If the returning middies were the answer we'd be playing next week. Then there's the roster thing of having 6 players at one position in the same class when you can only start 3.

They need more talent and not all of it can come from dare I say, ahem, "The (next) transformative class".
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HopFan16
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Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by HopFan16 »

jhu06 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 4:42 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 11:08 am A lot in 51's post I agree with but a couple things:

- Handley is reportedly moving on from college lax and will play PLL this summer
- ND loses a lot more than just Fake and Tevlin — also a 2nd starting defenseman, LSM, and Quinn McCahon. One could also argue Fake and Tevlin have been their two most important players this year. We'll see how they do in the portal but 2023 is their shot IMO
- In addition to Bauer and Evans, Chauvette and McDermott (in fewer games) also improved their production — that's four middies (+Grimes) who you could convincingly said "developed" — while not into AAs, that's not nothing. It wasn't that long ago you looked up and down the roster and said to yourself, "it doesn't really seem like anyone is getting better."
- Inconsistent and occasionally frustrating yes but Grimes going from 14 to 34 points was important and no matter how much jhu06 cries about it, he's not going anywhere. There isn't a coach in the country who wouldn't want a 6'4'' lefty sniper who gets you 2 points per game from the midfield. Needs to finish better in close — how many times was he stoned on the doorstep this year? Should have had another 5 goals
- Even if Marcille returns, they could still look to the portal. Tim should know better than anyone, as good as he was in moments this year, 49-50% on the season doesn't save you from competition or having to earn the spot again
- Sorichetti can be that inside presence, would kill two birds with one stone by taking over the lefty attack spot while adding inside finishing ability. But then maybe you're losing the stretch shooting that a Collison or Grimes would bring in that role — will be an interesting decision
They played 18 games. If the returning middies were the answer we'd be playing next week. Then there's the roster thing of having 6 players at one position in the same class when you can only start 3.

They need more talent and not all of it can come from dare I say, ahem, "The (next) transformative class".
Do you know what "points per game" means or how it works?

Chauvette: 0 -> 0.75
McDermott: 0.53 -> 1
Evans: 0.6 -> 0.86
Bauer: 0.6 -> 1
Grimes: 1.27 -> 1.89

Four of the five also increased their shooting percentage from last year but considering your struggles with the more basic concept I didn't think it pertinent to go down that road.

Absolutely no one is opposed to adding more talent to the midfield. The reason people don't respect you is because you said they should all transfer and that none of them should play. That's why people think your brain is smooth. Hope that helps.
51percentcorn
Posts: 1525
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:54 am

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by 51percentcorn »

jhu06 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 4:42 pm They played 18 games. If the returning middies were the answer we'd be playing next week. Then there's the roster thing of having 6 players at one position in the same class when you can only start 3.
How can I say this gently - you are 100% wrong maybe????

Here's the other 3 final 4 teams and the Top 6 middies - I already went though ND:
UVA
McConvey 27 goals 22 Assists
Schutz 23 goals 16 assists
Conner 9 Goals 18 assists
I won't count McIntosh or Sunderland because they play alot of attack if not entirely - as we know McIntosh scored 40% of his 15 goals against Hopkins at Attack
Garno 14 goals 4 assists
Then the next 3 guys on UVA stats are 2 SSDMs and a face-off man
Meizan 7 goals and 2 assists
and then after that there's virtually nothing

Duke
Leadmon 23 goals 8 assists
Danenza 20 goals 9 assists
Balsamo 17 goals 11 assists
Caputo 14 goals 13 assists
Shelling 8 goals 10 assists
McGuire 5 goals 1 assist

Penn State
Matt Traynor 30 goals 7 assists
Morin 10 goals 11 assists
Costin 15 goals 4 assists
Jordan 12 goals 11 assists
Mercer 9 goals 5 assists
Aldridge 2 goals 5 assists

What jumps out at you that makes you think you need better than
26 goals 9 assists
20 goals 14 assists
16 goals 5 assists
9 goals 7 assists
8 goals 4 assists
6 goals 6 assists
and you had 2 other middies that contributed 20 points between them which just looking at the last numbers in the queue you can see no team could approach that

Middies weren't the problem - the 4 teams left standing - well Penn State got the 5th seed and the favorable draw - I kept telling everybody that was the seed you had to have (#4 or #5) Hopkins beats Army with the effort given against Notre Dame - they also beat Princeton. UVA/Duke have more talent at attack - better face-offs and the equals if not better at defense and just all around better teams. Notre Dame had the better goalie and defense and Hopkins was not built to attack Notre Dame.
jhu06
Posts: 2700
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:43 am

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by jhu06 »

They won 12 games this year. Where is the improvement going to come from next year?
Attack-You're losing degnon
Midfield-Commenters have already anointed this a Feb ready group
Defense-losing mazzone
Goalie-In limbo
Faceoff-Losing hawley/mazzone/narewski
Hoponboard
Posts: 526
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:45 pm

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by Hoponboard »

HopFan16 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 4:59 pm
jhu06 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 4:42 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 11:08 am A lot in 51's post I agree with but a couple things:

- Handley is reportedly moving on from college lax and will play PLL this summer
- ND loses a lot more than just Fake and Tevlin — also a 2nd starting defenseman, LSM, and Quinn McCahon. One could also argue Fake and Tevlin have been their two most important players this year. We'll see how they do in the portal but 2023 is their shot IMO
- In addition to Bauer and Evans, Chauvette and McDermott (in fewer games) also improved their production — that's four middies (+Grimes) who you could convincingly said "developed" — while not into AAs, that's not nothing. It wasn't that long ago you looked up and down the roster and said to yourself, "it doesn't really seem like anyone is getting better."
- Inconsistent and occasionally frustrating yes but Grimes going from 14 to 34 points was important and no matter how much jhu06 cries about it, he's not going anywhere. There isn't a coach in the country who wouldn't want a 6'4'' lefty sniper who gets you 2 points per game from the midfield. Needs to finish better in close — how many times was he stoned on the doorstep this year? Should have had another 5 goals
- Even if Marcille returns, they could still look to the portal. Tim should know better than anyone, as good as he was in moments this year, 49-50% on the season doesn't save you from competition or having to earn the spot again
- Sorichetti can be that inside presence, would kill two birds with one stone by taking over the lefty attack spot while adding inside finishing ability. But then maybe you're losing the stretch shooting that a Collison or Grimes would bring in that role — will be an interesting decision
They played 18 games. If the returning middies were the answer we'd be playing next week. Then there's the roster thing of having 6 players at one position in the same class when you can only start 3.

They need more talent and not all of it can come from dare I say, ahem, "The (next) transformative class".
Do you know what "points per game" means or how it works?

Chauvette: 0 -> 0.75
McDermott: 0.53 -> 1
Evans: 0.6 -> 0.86
Bauer: 0.6 -> 1
Grimes: 1.27 -> 1.89

Four of the five also increased their shooting percentage from last year but considering your struggles with the more basic concept I didn't think it pertinent to go down that road.

Absolutely no one is opposed to adding more talent to the midfield. The reason people don't respect you is because you said they should all transfer and that none of them should play. That's why people think your brain is smooth. Hope that helps.
Don’t argue the facts with 06, he’s on autopilot.
51percentcorn
Posts: 1525
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:54 am

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by 51percentcorn »

jhu06 wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 5:34 pm They won 12 games this year. Where is the improvement going to come from next year?
That's the beauty of it - you don't know - who had 12-6 at the end of last year?

Point to almost any team as the portal effect lessens and you can identify major losses - Mazzone - as bad as that is - Degnon Narewski and maybe Hawley maybe even a Jaronski is not that bad.
You don't know what Ayers/Sorichetti/Rawson/Iler/Jewell etc. will bring to the offense - it will be more than nothing that's almost certain
Hopefully you have a full year of a healthy Brooks English
You have an untapped piece of potential in Marquis
You have every single offensive midfielder mid-fielder returning assuming no transfers or issues - the top 8 midfielders gave you 150 points why can't they get better?
You have a good core defensively in front of the biggest questionmark going into '24 - need a solution there without question to get to Memorial Day week-end
Sagittarius A*
Posts: 963
Joined: Tue May 07, 2019 7:38 pm

Re: Johns Hopkins 2024

Post by Sagittarius A* »

51percentcorn wrote: Tue May 23, 2023 6:04 pm You have every single offensive midfielder mid-fielder returning assuming no transfers or issues - the top 8 midfielders gave you 150 points why can't they get better?
You have a good core defensively in front of the biggest questionmark going into '24 - need a solution there without question to get to Memorial Day week-end
We would have to hit the jackpot in the portal to be playing next Memorial Day weekend.
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