LaxPower Back-Up Stick

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 10:32 am i have tufts, wesleyan, bowdoin and middlebury ahead of amherst at this point. all have beat Amherst head to head. and all have better resumes.

Now we’re cooking with gas! Where the last three fall in the regional rankings is going to be really, really interesting. Very possible that I am too high on Amherst because of the Swat/RPI (and I guess Gettysburg) wins.

as for the number of losses. past years are past years. this year, there are at least 9 other teams with letter records and better resumes. and if Amherst doesn’t make the NESCAC finals, they won’t have much of an argument.

It’s not a guarantee by any means, but it does seem like it’s becoming more of a norm given Pool C’s expansion. I’m not sure what makes this year notably different than past seasons.

Also, Salisbury (or CNU, but…yeah) is Pool B, not Pool C.

I have to admit, I don't understand the pool B. Looking at the NCAA page, there are 3 conferences with a total of 12 teams that qualify for pool B. but all of those teams also qualify for pool C. What determines if Salisbury/CNU is the pool B?

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 2:13 pm I have to admit, I don't understand the pool B. Looking at the NCAA page, there are 3 conferences with a total of 12 teams that qualify for pool B. but all of those teams also qualify for pool C. What determines if Salisbury/CNU is the pool B?

Salisbury will be pool B (top independent team) the rest will go into the pool c category. I believe next year it will be all pool c and no pool b. I also believe next year the CLC will have an AQ.

Laxattackjack wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 2:13 pm I have to admit, I don't understand the pool B. Looking at the NCAA page, there are 3 conferences with a total of 12 teams that qualify for pool B. but all of those teams also qualify for pool C. What determines if Salisbury/CNU is the pool B?

Pool B is reserved for teams that do not have access to an AQ with a number of bids at the same ratio of Pool A teams to Pool A bids. The best teams get the Pool B bids, then remaining teams are eligible for Pool C like everyone else.

Independent and also teams from conferences with no AQ.

Anyone know if a 6 or 7 loss team has ever made the postseason as a pool C selection?

SKUD wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 8:30 pm Anyone know if a 6 or 7 loss team has ever made the postseason as a pool C selection?

Yes a bunch of teams have. Williams made it at 10-7 last year.

The only team in my mind that is a lock for the NCAA from the NESCAC is Tufts if they don't win the tournament. Wes I would say is the next team to have the greatest chance. Bowdoin chance to be a lock is all dependent on if they can beat Tufts or not. If they do, then I would say they are lock also. Those three are most likely the most definite. Amherst is on the outside looking in but the RPI win helped a lot. I don't see how Middlebury gets in without winning the tournament. My guess is that three NESCAC teams get in possible four but this is a long shot.

The12lov3 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 9:17 pm The only team in my mind that is a lock for the NCAA from the NESCAC is Tufts if they don't win the tournament. Wes I would say is the next team to have the greatest chance. Bowdoin chance to be a lock is all dependent on if they can beat Tufts or not. If they do, then I would say they are lock also. Those three are most likely the most definite. Amherst is on the outside looking in but the RPI win helped a lot. I don't see how Middlebury gets in without winning the tournament. My guess is that three NESCAC teams get in possible four but this is a long shot.

Ok, I'll bite: which 9 teams could conceivably get a bid ahead of Wesleyan?

SixBySix wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:24 am

The12lov3 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 21, 2024 9:17 pm The only team in my mind that is a lock for the NCAA from the NESCAC is Tufts if they don't win the tournament. Wes I would say is the next team to have the greatest chance. Bowdoin chance to be a lock is all dependent on if they can beat Tufts or not. If they do, then I would say they are lock also. Those three are most likely the most definite. Amherst is on the outside looking in but the RPI win helped a lot. I don't see how Middlebury gets in without winning the tournament. My guess is that three NESCAC teams get in possible four but this is a long shot.

Ok, I'll bite: which 9 teams could conceivably get a bid ahead of Wesleyan?

I think Wes gets in. Are they a lock - I don't know but I think them and Tufts are the two teams that get in if say Bowdoin, Amherst, or Middlebury win the NESCAC tournament.

Anyone familiar with process for determining who hosts 2nd round of tournament games? Does highest seed get the nod or is the selection determined by other factors?

Motorman wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:57 pm Anyone familiar with process for determining who hosts 2nd round of tournament games? Does highest seed get the nod or is the selection determined by other factors?

i have looked online and never found anything. i think several factors come into play. seeding. location etc.

first round is usually higher seed hosting. (play in game )
second and third round is likely based on top seeds, with a goal to have 4 north and 4 south hosts. limiting travel.
fourth round should go to the top two seeds remaining.

Jumbo wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 1:19 pm

Motorman wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:57 pm Anyone familiar with process for determining who hosts 2nd round of tournament games? Does highest seed get the nod or is the selection determined by other factors?

i have looked online and never found anything. i think several factors come into play. seeding. location etc.

first round is usually higher seed hosting. (play in game )
second and third round is likely based on top seeds, with a goal to have 4 north and 4 south hosts. limiting travel.
fourth round should go to the top two seeds remaining.

2023 was:
(3) North
Tufts
RIT
Middlebury

(3) South
Salisbury
W&L
CNU

(2) Middle (this is the best description i can think of for them)
Denison
Dickinson

2022 was:
(4) North
RIT
Bowdoin
Union
Tufts

(2) South
CNU
Salisbury

(2) Middle
York
Dickinson

North: I would imagine they stay with 4 north hosts (I won't even venture into guessing the wildwest up there that is the NESCAC and LL).

South: Salisbury is a lock. Curious to see if CNU hosts again, their W&L game this week should answer that. If W&L wins I could see 2 ODAC teams host, probably Lynchburg, Noke, or W&L depending on what happens there.

Middle: Winner on Centennial hosts I assume. The big question for hosting is the second middle team. ]]The lack of a Denison or York power house this year. Both of them have had lack luster seasons and I would be shocked if they get to host. That then turns the next closest location to either Grove City, or the second place in the Centennial (Swat, Gburg, Dickinson).

it all depends where the teams are coming from.

north is likely going to be two NESCAC teams. at least one Liberty. maybe the runner up also.
RIT
Tufts
RPI
Amherst or Wesleyan

St Lawrence is probably out, since far from major airports and so far north.

south
Salisbury
winner of CC

and probably two of these three
CNU if they keep it close with salisbury
winner of ODAC
and maybe Grove City/Denison.

but i could also see a situation where Swarthmore wins the CC and you have them and the runner up (GBurg/Dickinson)

Another factor that plays into a school's decision to apply to host (and the NCAA's decision to allow them to host) is when their commencement is.

At a place like St. Lawrence, it would be very very difficult for teams to find hotel space on short notice the same weekend as commencement. I'm not sure how many other top D3 schools run into that problem (I'm guessing Midd?), but for rural schools it's an issue....especially with the weekend "pods" format means 3 teams looking for places to stay.

Distance from an airport isn't that big of a factor in hosting decisions, since I believe the NCAA only flies teams if the site is 500 miles away. In most years there are only one or two flights needed (thanks to budget friendly bracket making, that sends Colorado College to play Salisbury in the first round), but hotel availability is a huge factor that the NCAA considers when picking hosts.

https://x.com/laxreference/status/17824 ... giBlZJK98Q

Found this interesting in terms of how the simulator has the at large bids currently. Biggest surprise is only 1 Nescac with the others still having work to do. Would be shocked if only 1 were to make it.

BigMoose9 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 6:40 pm https://x.com/laxreference/status/17824 ... giBlZJK98Q

Found this interesting in terms of how the simulator has the at large bids currently. Biggest surprise is only 1 Nescac with the others still having work to do. Would be shocked if only 1 were to make it.

That source is very open about it all being formulas with zero subjective human reality check. So it's from a geek data crunch POV. In the case of NESCAC, it simply means the computer says "well, if Wesleyan loses all of the remainder of its game and the 3 teams below win all of theirs, in that 1.9% chance of happening scenario, Wesleyan doesn't get it in, therefore 'they have work to do.'"

It'd be WAY more helpful if it was factoring the likely outcome of all upcoming games-- then you'd see a much more accurate version of the field.

Seems that Wesleyan, Bowdoin are incredibly likely to get in, with Amherst being likely.

To me, the big question mark is what happens to good teams who played very tough schedules but got beat up along the way: York, Middlebury, Williams, Gettysburg. They need to win their conf tourneys. Or make the finals and keep fingers crossed.

BigMoose9 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 6:40 pm https://x.com/laxreference/status/17824 ... giBlZJK98Q

Found this interesting in terms of how the simulator has the at large bids currently. Biggest surprise is only 1 Nescac with the others still having work to do. Would be shocked if only 1 were to make it.

At least of the time of his last post, he wasn't even using the correct number of bids, so I would take with a massive grain of salt.

I love lacrossereference for team stats/data, but that prediction is terrible. CNU being a stone cold lock with Wesleyan as a 50/50 bubble team (or maybe even lower?) is the best example, but the whole thing is just…not good.

ToeDipper78 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 8:18 pm

To me, the big question mark is what happens to good teams who played very tough schedules but got beat up along the way: York, Middlebury, Williams, Gettysburg. They need to win their conf tourneys. Or make the finals and keep fingers crossed.

for the teams mentioned
York- too many losses. its win the conference or nothing
Middlebury and Williams. they both have a slight chance if they make the finals. but one and done in the conference playoffs will eliminate them
Gettysburg needs to make the finals to get in.

just my opinion.

10 slots. and as someone mentioned, Salisbury will get the B pool

my top 10 remaining wil come from this group
Nescac will probably get 3. maybe 4 if Midd or Williams makes the finals
CC will probably get 1 or 2. maybe 3 if GBurg makes the finals
Liberty will probably get 2 or 3
odac will get 1 unless hsc wins or if roanoke makes the finals.
CNU

so 13 teams in play for 10 slots. all this changes if Stevens, or Babson lose in the finals. i think they are both locks to get in.