This was originally published in the Tue Dec 19, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.
Luke Jaber's season with
Bentley was a mixed bag that showcased both his potential and areas for growth. One of the most notable aspects of his performance was his commendable
shooting efficiency, which placed him in the 77th percentile. This indicates that when Jaber took his chances, he did so with precision, making a solid contribution to the team's offensive efforts.
However, not all facets of Jaber's game were as impressive. His ball security, for instance, was in the 29th percentile, reflecting a challenge in maintaining possession and potentially squandering offensive opportunities. Compared to the previous season, where his individual player efficiency was in the 58th percentile, there was a noticeable drop, with this season's efficiency falling to the 31st percentile.
Jaber's assist rate was respectable, sitting in the 56th percentile, which suggests he was not a one-dimensional finisher, although there is room for improvement. An interesting note for Jaber was that 83% of his goals were assisted, underscoring his reliance on team dynamics for scoring. Between the turnover rate and the fact that only 17% of his goals were unassisted, generating offense on his own was not his strength.
In terms of general involvement, Jaber was a strong presence. With a ground ball win rate in the 86th percentile and similarly high rankings in shares of the team's shots (86th percentile), assists (88th percentile), and overall usage rate (92nd percentile), it was clear that Jaber played a crucial role in Bentley's offensive system.
Examining Jaber's performance across different stretches of the season provides further insight. His best four-game period came between March 18th and March 28th against
Saint Rose,
Mercy,
Franklin Pierce, and
Assumption, where Bentley went 3-1 overall. During this time, Jaber's
individual efficiency rating climbed to the 60th percentile, and his role significantly expanded, indicated by an 18.9% share of the team's shots and a 23.5% share of assists. Moreover, his skill-based statistics improved, with a 79th percentile shooting efficiency and an 80th percentile assist rate, reflecting a period of high productivity.
Conversely, Jaber's most challenging stretch was from April 22nd to May 6th against
Adelphi,
Southern NH, Adelphi again, and
Le Moyne. Despite the team again registering three victories, Jaber's individual efficiency plummeted to the 7th percentile. His share of the team's shots and assists also decreased to 10.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Interestingly, his shooting efficiency remained high at the 86th percentile, but a significant drop in ball security to the 9th percentile and a lower assist rate at the 26th percentile marked this period as less productive. The defenses didn't let him shoot as much, and he had a hard time contributing to the same degree as a facilitator of the offense, rather than as a finisher.
It is intriguing to note that, despite Jaber's better individual performance during his best stretch, Bentley's opponent-adjusted efficiency as a team was actually lower compared to when Jaber struggled. This suggests that while Jaber's personal success may not have directly translated to a more effective team performance, his efforts did not go unnoticed.
In summary, Luke Jaber's season had its highs and lows, with his shooting efficiency being the bright spot. However, the inconsistency in his ball security and the fluctuation in his individual efficiency highlighted areas where he could get better. As Jaber's role remained steady from the previous year, the shifts in his performance appeared to be more reflective of his execution rather than changes in responsibility. Looking ahead, maintaining the strengths and addressing the weaknesses evident in these statistics will be key to Jaber's continued development as a player.</p>
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