All Things Environment

[RedFromMI]

From weatherunderground (no, not Obama's terrorist friend )

Our top intensity models unanimously predict strengthening of Florence into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Tuesday, and the storm is also expected to increase in size. Florence will still be embedded in a relatively dry atmosphere, so it is possible the storm could suffer from dry air intrusions that would interfere with the intensification process, though.

We'll see.

Already at 3, and now predicted at the NHC to be 4 beginning soon and remaining so til contact with NC coast. Spaghetti (multiple model tracks) plots in substantial agreement: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

[Typical Lax Dad]

The climate has actually gotten cooler. When the Dinosaurs roamed, upstate NY temps yearly average was in the 80s. Humans aren't at fault for climate change. Yet another tax ploy to steal money. Can't Democrats make their own money? Or do they always want to steal it from others in the form of pointless taxation? BTW. Google Year without a summer. I am sure those folks in 1815 would have love for their to have been a heat wave!

Even a simple google search will tell you that the year without a summer was caused mostly by the eruption of Mt. Tambora that year. There may have also been a contribution to the cooling effect by a volcanic eruption in the Philippines the previous year...

I have been teaching physics for 31 years, and astronomy for 26 at the college level. (And yes I have a PhD in physics as well). I can assure you that the evidence of the human effect on the climate is good science. The argument is more about exactly how bad it might get, and how much time we have to potentially counteract the effect.

And yes, some millions of years ago the temperature was significantly hotter. Many times in the past it was significantly colder, including at least one period where most all of the Earth was covered in ice...

But in the sense of recent history, the temperatures are definitely climbing (especially compared to the end of the last ice age). I show the following cartoon in my astronomy class - maybe that will show you some of the actual data...

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Thanks for posting that...... you could also add how the population has increased from 1800 to the predicted 2100....... The earth will be fine.....I am not as optimistic about the people though. Earth should be fine until consumed by the sun....we can't do anything about it so, we should ignore it..... like my dentists says, If your teeth bothers you, ignore it..... they will go away.

[runrussellrun]

The climate has actually gotten cooler. When the Dinosaurs roamed, upstate NY temps yearly average was in the 80s. Humans aren't at fault for climate change. Yet another tax ploy to steal money. Can't Democrats make their own money? Or do they always want to steal it from others in the form of pointless taxation? BTW. Google Year without a summer. I am sure those folks in 1815 would have love for their to have been a heat wave!

Even a simple google search will tell you that the year without a summer was caused mostly by the eruption of Mt. Tambora that year. There may have also been a contribution to the cooling effect by a volcanic eruption in the Philippines the previous year...

I have been teaching physics for 31 years, and astronomy for 26 at the college level. (And yes I have a PhD in physics as well). I can assure you that the evidence of the human effect on the climate is good science. The argument is more about exactly how bad it might get, and how much time we have to potentially counteract the effect.

And yes, some millions of years ago the temperature was significantly hotter. Many times in the past it was significantly colder, including at least one period where most all of the Earth was covered in ice...

But in the sense of recent history, the temperatures are definitely climbing (especially compared to the end of the last ice age). I show the following cartoon in my astronomy class - maybe that will show you some of the actual data...

https://xkcd.com/1732/

What's your take on the very strong evidence that the earths magnetic poles have shifted over the millenia ? Of course, the earths magnetic fields have nothing to do with solar radiation that reaches the earth

[RedFromMI]

The climate has actually gotten cooler. When the Dinosaurs roamed, upstate NY temps yearly average was in the 80s. Humans aren't at fault for climate change. Yet another tax ploy to steal money. Can't Democrats make their own money? Or do they always want to steal it from others in the form of pointless taxation? BTW. Google Year without a summer. I am sure those folks in 1815 would have love for their to have been a heat wave!

Even a simple google search will tell you that the year without a summer was caused mostly by the eruption of Mt. Tambora that year. There may have also been a contribution to the cooling effect by a volcanic eruption in the Philippines the previous year...

I have been teaching physics for 31 years, and astronomy for 26 at the college level. (And yes I have a PhD in physics as well). I can assure you that the evidence of the human effect on the climate is good science. The argument is more about exactly how bad it might get, and how much time we have to potentially counteract the effect.

And yes, some millions of years ago the temperature was significantly hotter. Many times in the past it was significantly colder, including at least one period where most all of the Earth was covered in ice...

But in the sense of recent history, the temperatures are definitely climbing (especially compared to the end of the last ice age). I show the following cartoon in my astronomy class - maybe that will show you some of the actual data...

https://xkcd.com/1732/

What's your take on the very strong evidence that the earths magnetic poles have shifted over the millenia ? Of course, the earths magnetic fields have nothing to do with solar radiation that reaches the earth

They have little to do with the light radiation, but something to do with the solar wind/aurora effects. Data seems to show a very weak effect on climate, however. Things like orbital changes of the Earth have bigger effects.

[runrussellrun]

And which data may that be? And by stating, ''very little", is that an admission that is has some effect on climate?

It would be crazy to tax gravity, wouldn't it?

[RedFromMI]

And which data may that be? And by stating, ''very little", is that an admission that is has some effect on climate?

It would be crazy to tax gravity, wouldn't it?

Very little in the sense that the effect can be barely measured (there is a small correlation in ocean temperature variations that track with the solar cycle and its typical 11 year period). As far as I know, this is not considered to be a significant effect on climate change.

[RedFromMI]

From weatherunderground (no, not Obama's terrorist friend )

Our top intensity models unanimously predict strengthening of Florence into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Tuesday, and the storm is also expected to increase in size. Florence will still be embedded in a relatively dry atmosphere, so it is possible the storm could suffer from dry air intrusions that would interfere with the intensification process, though.

We'll see.

Already at 3, and now predicted at the NHC to be 4 beginning soon and remaining so til contact with NC coast. Spaghetti (multiple model tracks) plots in substantial agreement: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

Already up to Cat 4.

[dislaxxic]

Go deeper: Hurricane Florence is a storm threat unlike any other

"Hurricane Florence is a nightmare storm for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The reasons stem from the hurricane's power, size, forward speed and the longstanding vulnerability of the area it is forecast to hit.

The big picture: There are no historical analogs to compare Florence to. It's forecast track is unprecedented, and its array and magnitude of threats are as well.

The context: If Hurricane Florence makes landfall in North Carolina or Virginia as a Category 4 storm, it would be the strongest storm to do so that far north."

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[dislaxxic]

Trump tries to rewrite history on Maria as Hurricane Florence approaches



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[runrussellrun]

Like I said, we'll see. Now a Cat 2, but with potential for lots of rain.

[RedFromMI]

Like I said, we'll see. Now a Cat 2, but with potential for lots of rain.

Energy of storm is the same - more spread out. So little change in rain predictions, flooding, etc. Wind damage may be more limited where eye passes.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Like I said, we'll see. Now a Cat 2, but with potential for lots of rain.

Energy of storm is the same - more spread out. So little change in rain predictions, flooding, etc. Wind damage may be more limited where eye passes.

I don’t know why we even bother tracking storms. They are too unpredictable.

[HooDat]

Like I said, we'll see. Now a Cat 2, but with potential for lots of rain.

Energy of storm is the same - more spread out. So little change in rain predictions, flooding, etc. Wind damage may be more limited where eye passes.

tidal surge will be less as well (hopefully)

[runrussellrun]

Historic Data for NDBC Station 41002 does show a dramatic increase in water temperature for the first half of September. This year, it shows 84 degrees for water temp. In 1976, the same date shows 80 degrees. That 4 degrees was supposed to feed the hurricane, was it not claimed? Or perhaps the hurricane BROUGHT the warm water with it?

1981 saw an ever higher water temperature than 2018 on Sept. 12. Isn't this science, reading temps? Or, do I have to create some math formula for derivations, means, average and other such nonsense. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. And sometimes, if it's 84 degrees, it's 84 degrees.

Not my favorite station, but:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41002

[runrussellrun]

Like I said, we'll see. Now a Cat 2, but with potential for lots of rain.

Energy of storm is the same - more spread out. So little change in rain predictions, flooding, etc. Wind damage may be more limited where eye passes.

tidal surge will be less as well (hopefully)

Next High tide for Charleston, SC (thankfully only 5') is at 11:42AM today. Next on roughly midnite, then just past midday tomorrow, etc. Depending on when the surge hits always makes a huge difference.

[runrussellrun]

At landfall this morning, Cat 1 hurricane. Now, the narrative will shift (already has) from "stonger, more powerful ..." to " larger, wider "
Regarding the other nonsense about the Maria death count (Why tRump doesn't just say any number of deaths is horrible, followed by, " decades of power grid problems, coupled with the renewable energy opportunities missed, have greatly, no hugely, contributed to the horrible, horrible death toll"
__________
So, the timing of the Maria death count is interesting. But, whom do you trust when it comes to attributing mortality due to a Hurricane. (remember, a hurricane Irma had hit Puerto Rico two weeks earlier, prior to Maria )

According to the New England Journal of Medicine, close to 5,000 people died.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972

Why is the media reporting on the 3,000 number? Is Harvard Med school and it's research not valuable any longer?

tRUMP is a fool, he should be citing this article. Why is it HIS fault that any amount of people died due to a natural disaster? The real question is, what COULD have been done to prevent a person with chronic conditions from dying? Just blaming tRUMP doesn't solve future problems.

Lots of blacks live in North Carolina where the eye hit. If tRUMP is truly a racist, he won't help them. Right.

[Bandito]

Media blames Trump for storm. You just can't make this up. Democrats are Morons.
https://news.grabien.com/story-media-po ... ct-mass-de

[dislaxxic]

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[Typical Lax Dad]

At landfall this morning, Cat 1 hurricane. Now, the narrative will shift (already has) from "stonger, more powerful ..." to " larger, wider "
Regarding the other nonsense about the Maria death count (Why tRump doesn't just say any number of deaths is horrible, followed by, " decades of power grid problems, coupled with the renewable energy opportunities missed, have greatly, no hugely, contributed to the horrible, horrible death toll"
__________
So, the timing of the Maria death count is interesting. But, whom do you trust when it comes to attributing mortality due to a Hurricane. (remember, a hurricane Irma had hit Puerto Rico two weeks earlier, prior to Maria )

According to the New England Journal of Medicine, close to 5,000 people died.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972

Why is the media reporting on the 3,000 number? Is Harvard Med school and it's research not valuable any longer?

tRUMP is a fool, he should be citing this article. Why is it HIS fault that any amount of people died due to a natural disaster? The real question is, what COULD have been done to prevent a person with chronic conditions from dying? Just blaming tRUMP doesn't solve future problems.

Lots of blacks live in North Carolina where the eye hit. If tRUMP is truly a racist, he won't help them. Right.

I would tRust tRump! Who would you tRust?

[dislaxxic]

U.S. is second biggest loser from climate change economically, bombshell study finds

"Study blows up "total myth" that climate action benefits other countries more."

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