Our Undeclared Wars

[OCanada]

Soufan Center today. The problem with acting unilaterally without thinking or planning creates problems down the road. One perspective..,

The U.S. and Iran are close to a conflict that would have no clear end and could quickly spread throughout the Middle East and beyond.

Iran has acquired leverage by building proxies and allies into politico-military forces, arming them with short-range missiles, rockets, and other weaponry.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i calculates that Iranian actions can compel President Trump to relent on the administration’s campaign of 'maximum pressure’ on Iran.

The latest crisis in U.S.-Iran relations is unique in that traditional American allies in Europe have blamed the administration, not Iran, for the crisis.

On June 20, 2019, President Trump authorized and later reversed his approval for a U.S. air and missile strike on Iranian missile and radar batteries. The strikes were designed in retaliation for the Iranian downing, one day earlier, of a U.S. unmanned aerial surveillance aircraft over the Persian Gulf. While justifying his hesitancy because Iranian casualties would likely have been high and 'disproportionate,’ in response to the downing of an unmanned drone, the decision to abort was undoubtedly related to the President’s perception that any conflict with Iran will not remain limited to the Persian Gulf theater. Even though the strike was abruptly called off, U.S. Cyber Command did launch a cyber attack against Iranian radar and missile batteries and an Iranian spy group with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and connected to the tanker attacks that occurred last week.

Over the past decade, Iran has acquired substantial leverage over regional events, and over the United States, by pursuing a 'playbook’ in which Iran arms, trains, and funds Shia militias and builds them into significant political and military forces across the Middle East and beyond. This strategy has afforded Iran the capability to strike U.S. personnel and allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, and Afghanistan. Iran also maintains a robust network of agents in Central Asia, Latin America, Europe, and parts of Africa and Asia, which could launch terrorist attacks or other armed operations outside the Middle East. Iran has provided some of its regional allies, including Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Shia militia forces in Iraq, with weaponry as sophisticated as short-range ballistic and cruise missiles—directly threatening two key U.S. allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as critical oil chokepoints.

Iran’s success in taking advantage of regional conflicts has given Iran's Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i, confidence that Iran can exert leverage over President Trump. The Iranian leadership closely monitors both U.S. policy and politics, and Khamene'i has calculated that war between Tehran and Washington would cause far more problems for U.S. policy, and for President Trump politically, than such action would gain. Khamene'i and his allies in the IRGC and IRGC-Qods Force know that President Trump promised to extricate the United States from the region—not to initiate another major regional war that could embroil U.S. forces for decades. This confidence explains why Iran has been willing to risk potential U.S. retaliation by attacking commercial tankers in the Gulf and shooting down the Global Hawk on June 19.

The calculus behind Khamene'i's willingness to take risks is clear. Iran’s Supreme Leader is attempting to apply countervailing pressure on President Trump to roll back the sanctions that are strangling Iran’s economy. Khamene'i's core goal, in all likelihood, is to compel the administration to restore sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Iranian oil. An end to these exemptions more recently—coupled with related steps taken in concert with the administration’s 'maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran—caused Iranian oil exports to plummet and have severely hobbled Iran’s economy. U.S. policy has arguably forced Iran into a corner and, as was widely predicted, Iran has responded by lashing out. Further emboldening Khamene'i is the realization that Iran has support from the European Union, as well as major outside powers such as Russia and China. The EU countries were uniformly critical of the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement, arguing that Iran was complying with the accord. The EU countries, as well as Russia and China, blame the Trump administration’s 'maximum pressure’ campaign for causing the latest crisis, and several EU states have offered to mediate to de-escalate tensions. In the current situation, in contrast to past periods, the United States is virtually alone in confronting Iran, and cannot count on its traditional partners to put pressure on the Iranian leadership to negotiate a peaceful resolution to a growing crisis.

[jhu72]

The Iranians blew holes in 6 tankers in Intl waters & shot down a multi-million $$$ unmanned aircraft in intl airspace.

...& it's all Trump's fault, he made them do it. Okie Dokie.

Where's your proof?

Who cares? He has now shown he is a "Stable Genius". His restraint despite the urging of the Neo Cons is remarkable as his "gut" is what guides him and its almost always right.

High hypocrisy. Where was this logic when Obama refused to intervene in Syria? Standing up to the neocons.

[jhu72]

Except, somehow, every move Obama made in this long game was wrong, and every move Trump makes is brilliant.

You praise him today for standing up to Bolton et al and not going ahead with a 150 casualty response.

Tomorrow, if he goes ahead with it after all, you will praise that.

It doesn't matter what Trump does. Whatever it is, you will come here to tell us how brilliant it was.

NYT reporting that folks internal to the mission planning are saying that the projected casualties were no where near 150. But all of us knew that to be the case from the moment Orange Duce opened his mouth.

[jhu72]

You're the one who keeps dragging Obama back into the discussion, even when he's irrelevant to the current situation.
When he agreed to JCPOA, I warned you it would not survive a (R) Presidency.

Wait & see, Mr Instant gratification.

You brought him up.

Only in response to the constant whining from afan & others about JCPOA's failure to survive a (R) Presidency.
JCPOA is dead, in it's current form at least. It looks like Iran can't hold out until 2020.
We need a deal that can be ratified by the Senate & provides long term security for all parties.

Just rename the existing agreement. Put Trump's name on it. All that is required.

[jhu72]

Blah, blah, blah. Now we're back to Saddam. .. Trump had nothing to do with that.

I opposed the JCPOA when adopted, based on circumstances at the time.
I predicted how I feared it would work out. I regret that events played out as I predicted.

The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round ….

[jhu72]

Obama and our allies got them to stop their nuke program. You act like that's a trifle. A nothing.

Forget the little Ds and Rs schtick for once and consider reality.

What proof do you have to show Iran stopped their nuke program under JCPOA? And, how you can possibly trust the Mullahs is beyond me.

They have continued their long range ballistic missile development and not allowed inspectors into military sites. Those are the reasons Trump's admin broke from JCPOA and rightly so.

So where's the proof a fan since you and others are so certain Iran complied under JCPOA? Hint: You're kidding yourselves...

Total BS as usual.

US space based radiation monitoring says there is no change in the military facilities. We have their detailed radiation profiles concurrent with our inspection of the facilities just prior to deal signing. We have seen no new unexplained construction at these sites. On the ground UN monitors are telling you the sites they are inspecting are in compliance and they have access to the space based measurements as well, so they have a complete picture of what is going on.

Of course these domain experts know nothing, only you and Dr. Trump know.

Missiles were never part of the agreement. You want to limit the missiles - negotiate a separate deal, they were never on the table.

Of course with the nuclear deal in place and the passage of time you have a solid foundation to build on based in trust in both directions to negotiate a missile agreement. Kiss that good bye.

The deal was signed not because we trust the mullahs, it was signed because we trust our technology and our people!

[jhu72]

Obama and our allies got them to stop their nuke program. You act like that's a trifle. A nothing.

Forget the little Ds and Rs schtick for once and consider reality.

What proof do you have to show Iran stopped their nuke program under JCPOA? And, how you can possibly trust the Mullahs is beyond me.

They have continued their long range ballistic missile development and not allowed inspectors into military sites. Those are the reasons Trump's admin broke from JCPOA and rightly so.

So where's the proof a fan since you and others are so certain Iran complied under JCPOA? Hint: You're kidding yourselves...

Total BS as usual.

US space based radiation monitoring says there is no change in the military facilities. We have their detailed radiation profiles concurrent with our inspection of the facilities just prior to deal signing. We have seen no new unexplained construction at these sites. On the ground UN monitors are telling you the sites they are inspecting are in compliance and they have access to the space based measurements as well, so they have a complete picture of what is going on.

Of course these domain experts know nothing, only you and Dr. Trump know.

Missiles were never part of the agreement. You want to limit the missiles - negotiate a separate deal, they were never on the table.

Of course with the nuclear deal in place and the passage of time you have a solid foundation to build on based in trust in both directions to negotiate a missile agreement. Kiss that good bye.

The deal was signed not because we trust the mullahs, it was signed because we trust our technology and our people!

[Brooklyn]

The latest crisis in U.S.-Iran relations is unique in that traditional American allies in Europe have blamed the administration, not Iran, for the crisis.

This is a point that has been overlooked by commentators on this issue. Bush had no trouble getting his allies to endorse his imperialistic war on Iraq by bribing the government of Turkey and Spain's Assnar ... oops, Aznar. And he had the very strong backing of B_Liar in the UK. Trump cannot proceed with his war plans without this type of back up. Just the other day he got more bad news in that the present government of Turkey was voted out of office. The vast majority of international governments did not endorse his plans to invade Syria over the mythical "gassing" which were proven to be a hoax. That's what stopped him then and it's the same today.

Iraq did not pose a threat to the west and neither does Iran. Except for radical right wingers in the USA and a few of their fellow delusionals overseas, the entire world knows it.

[CU88]

Had they downed the P-8, we'd be in the midst of an all out air & naval war.

Do you really think that we would go to "all out war" for just that?!?!

[OCanada]

It happening unless you assume Trump has no checks other than Bolton. Hmmmm

[old salt]

Had they downed the P-8, we'd be in the midst of an all out air & naval war.

Do you really think that we would go to "all out war" for just that?!?!

Just that ?
Air & Naval war = yes. Ground combat vs Iran = no.

That's why I questioned the tactical decision to expose the P-8 (M/RQ-4) as a target, after Iran shot at a MQ-9 the week prior & their Houhi proxies shot down a MQ-9 surveilling the Bab al Mandab strait in Yemen.

Shooting down a manned, multi crew surveillance aircraft, in intl airspace, is more than t!t-for tat gradually escalating reprisals.
This is not a scenario that lends itself to the incremental ratcheting up of military strikes. It won't remain limited or contained.

IMHO, if they kill an American, we will take out their air defenses, & air + naval assets threatening US bases & the flow of maritime shipping.

[ABV 8.3%]

Had they downed the P-8, we'd be in the midst of an all out air & naval war.

Do you really think that we would go to "all out war" for just that?!?!

Just that ?
Air & Naval war = yes. Ground combat vs Iran = no.

That's why I questioned the tactical decision to expose the P-8 (M/RQ-4) as a target, after Iran shot at a MQ-9 the week prior & their Houhi proxies shot down a MQ-9 surveilling the Bab al Mandab strait in Yemen.

Shooting down a manned, multi crew surveillance aircraft, in intl airspace, is more than t!t-for tat gradually escalating reprisals.
This is not a scenario that lends itself to the incremental ratcheting up of military strikes. It won't remain limited or contained.

IMHO, if they kill an American, we will take out their air defenses, & air + naval assets threatening US bases & the flow of maritime shipping.

Why the $100 million dollar price tag for a drone that can't even evade a simple rocket ?

[tech37]

Obama and our allies got them to stop their nuke program. You act like that's a trifle. A nothing.

Forget the little Ds and Rs schtick for once and consider reality.

What proof do you have to show Iran stopped their nuke program under JCPOA? And, how you can possibly trust the Mullahs is beyond me.

They have continued their long range ballistic missile development and not allowed inspectors into military sites. Those are the reasons Trump's admin broke from JCPOA and rightly so.

So where's the proof a fan since you and others are so certain Iran complied under JCPOA? Hint: You're kidding yourselves...

Total BS as usual. This coming from the guy who loses sleep for fear that Trump is becoming a fascist, authoritarian dictator, and yet is quick to support the real life religio-fascists ruling Iran...talk about BS!

US space based radiation monitoring says there is no change in the military facilities. We have their detailed radiation profiles concurrent with our inspection of the facilities just prior to deal signing. We have seen no new unexplained construction at these sites. On the ground UN monitors are telling you the sites they are inspecting are in compliance and they have access to the space based measurements as well, so they have a complete picture of what is going on. Show us where it says that spaced-based instruments can detect radiation in underground facilities in Iran.


Missiles were never part of the agreement. No *hit... That's why I've been saying the deal was flawed from the start. JCPOA was a temporary attempt to stop Iran from getting the bomb, yet allowed for the bomb delivery system to be developed...just brilliant! And, the regime has broken and continues to break UN Resolutions against the development of ballistic missiles but of course you're okie dokie with that since they're your BFFs (Best Fascist Friends). You want to limit the missiles - negotiate a separate deal, they were never on the table. Again, no *hit...and silly comment, the Iran regime will not negotiate with the Trump admin.

Of course with the nuclear deal in place and the passage of time you have a solid foundation to build on based in trust in both directions to negotiate a missile agreement. Kiss that good bye.

The deal was signed not because we trust the mullahs, it was signed because we trust our technology and our people! Hang it up 72...you've been wrong about so much these past couple years it's not even funny.

[old salt]

Had they downed the P-8, we'd be in the midst of an all out air & naval war.

Do you really think that we would go to "all out war" for just that?!?!

Just that ?
Air & Naval war = yes. Ground combat vs Iran = no.

That's why I questioned the tactical decision to expose the P-8 (M/RQ-4) as a target, after Iran shot at a MQ-9 the week prior & their Houhi proxies shot down a MQ-9 surveilling the Bab al Mandab strait in Yemen.

Shooting down a manned, multi crew surveillance aircraft, in intl airspace, is more than t!t-for tat gradually escalating reprisals.
This is not a scenario that lends itself to the incremental ratcheting up of military strikes. It won't remain limited or contained.

IMHO, if they kill an American, we will take out their air defenses, & air + naval assets threatening US bases & the flow of maritime shipping.

Why the $100 million dollar price tag for a drone that can't even evade a simple rocket ?

It was designed for open ocean surveillance, out of range or above most air defense systems.
It has been pressed into service over the Strait of Hormuz. It's presence in the Persian Gulf has been a closely held secret.
That article I posted is the first open source reporting I've seen of it's operational deployment.
It's not clear if the Q-4 lost was 1 of 4 USAF model RQ-4 prototypes, modified with the BAMS-D maritime sensors developed for the Navy's new MQ-4C Titan which recently attained Initial Opetrational Capability & just stood up it's first operational Unmanned Patrol Squadron in Jacksonville, FL.

[OCanada]

First open source but it is not an unknown by some of the principals is it

[ABV 8.3%]

The bridge over Cos Cob harbor was designed to NOT fail too. Made my summer visiting the old girlfriend such a problem just starting taking the train from Jersey.

Thank you, but none of what you replied helped much with the question. No evasive tactics at 60K feet? All those eyes, expensive eyes at that, in the Straitz of Hormez, and not one of those eyes can detect an Iranian missile attack? What a joke our "defense" system is if this is the case. I could buy $5 million, per drone, but not 20 to 30 times that much.

[CU88]

Had they downed the P-8, we'd be in the midst of an all out air & naval war.

Do you really think that we would go to "all out war" for just that?!?!

Just that ?
Air & Naval war = yes. Ground combat vs Iran = no.

That's why I questioned the tactical decision to expose the P-8 (M/RQ-4) as a target, after Iran shot at a MQ-9 the week prior & their Houhi proxies shot down a MQ-9 surveilling the Bab al Mandab strait in Yemen.

Shooting down a manned, multi crew surveillance aircraft, in intl airspace, is more than t!t-for tat gradually escalating reprisals.
This is not a scenario that lends itself to the incremental ratcheting up of military strikes. It won't remain limited or contained.

IMHO, if they kill an American, we will take out their air defenses, & air + naval assets threatening US bases & the flow of maritime shipping.

o s, are you the online persona for war-monger John Bolton?

What kind of person, much less Nation, wages war for the loss of a machine? Maybe a once proud world power being led into oblivion buy a homicidal idiot??

How did the world respond when the US shot down an Iranian passenger plane, in Iranian airspace, killing all of the plane’s 290 civilian passengers? July 3rd will be the 31st Anniversary of this incident, but I am sure you knew this and have plans to celebrate this great Victory.

[LandM]

72,
First two years was in the Blue Cube in Sunnyvale, CA - hopefully I read correctly what you typed because if we are still flying B-52's I am not thinking either a low flyer or geo satellite is gonna sniff out what you claim.....love to see that spec;

Secondly my old man in his 30 year career had some exotic camping trips - never spoke about them except the Mount Yards BUT he did speak about his two years in Iran. When JC was putting his mission together they tried recalling him back - he could have gotten a blind person in and out without anyone knowing but he said no - he was adamant that the Iranians were liers', thief's, not trustworthy, and if you wanted to raise the education level of the world turn it into a parking lot. Not advocating that but between some financial and cyber stuff - no shots fired.
Best

[MDlaxfan76]

Obama and our allies got them to stop their nuke program. You act like that's a trifle. A nothing.

Forget the little Ds and Rs schtick for once and consider reality.

What proof do you have to show Iran stopped their nuke program under JCPOA? And, how you can possibly trust the Mullahs is beyond me.

They have continued their long range ballistic missile development and not allowed inspectors into military sites. Those are the reasons Trump's admin broke from JCPOA and rightly so.

So where's the proof a fan since you and others are so certain Iran complied under JCPOA? Hint: You're kidding yourselves...

Total BS as usual. This coming from the guy who loses sleep for fear that Trump is becoming a fascist, authoritarian dictator, and yet is quick to support the real life religio-fascists ruling Iran...talk about BS!

US space based radiation monitoring says there is no change in the military facilities. We have their detailed radiation profiles concurrent with our inspection of the facilities just prior to deal signing. We have seen no new unexplained construction at these sites. On the ground UN monitors are telling you the sites they are inspecting are in compliance and they have access to the space based measurements as well, so they have a complete picture of what is going on. Show us where it says that spaced-based instruments can detect radiation in underground facilities in Iran.


Missiles were never part of the agreement. No *hit... That's why I've been saying the deal was flawed from the start. JCPOA was a temporary attempt to stop Iran from getting the bomb, yet allowed for the bomb delivery system to be developed...just brilliant! And, the regime has broken and continues to break UN Resolutions against the development of ballistic missiles but of course you're okie dokie with that since they're your BFFs (Best Fascist Friends). You want to limit the missiles - negotiate a separate deal, they were never on the table. Again, no *hit...and silly comment, the Iran regime will not negotiate with the Trump admin.

Of course with the nuclear deal in place and the passage of time you have a solid foundation to build on based in trust in both directions to negotiate a missile agreement. Kiss that good bye.

The deal was signed not because we trust the mullahs, it was signed because we trust our technology and our people! Hang it up 72...you've been wrong about so much these past couple years it's not even funny.

tech37, it's perfectly reasonable to critique the JCPOA (except that it indeed prevent Iran from getting a bomb on the timetable everyone expected, including the expectations of our allies like Israel) as not addressing every issue we have with Iran. It definitely didn't address all issues.

But, you're right, there's no way Iran negotiates with the Trump administration, because they know with 100% certainty that the Trump crew will not keep their word, and will accept nothing less than regime change. They might well have negotiated with an Administration that offered carrots and consistency, as well as respect, but the Trump folks never attempted that approach. It was all about the politics of criticizing the Obama deal.

I don't see '72 or anyone else on here cheerleading for the current Iranian system of government. We can walk and chew gum as recognizing that they are a dangerous regime, an adversary, indeed a part Bush's 'axis of evil', while also decrying the rise of authoritarianism under Trump. No one on here's 'okie dokie' with the Iranians. We just think that Trump and his team are committing massive international malpractice. The USA is 'our team', we want better.

BTW, show us where we don't have that technology. We do.
It's definitely not the only way we monitor Iran though.

[a fan]

JCPOA was a temporary attempt to stop Iran from getting the bomb

You and old salt say this as if we negotiated for Iran to not eat fish on Tuesdays. You wave it away as if it's some trifle. A pointless concession. "It stopped Iran from getting a nuke...no big deal." As if we don't care one way or another if they have one.


You both need to stop doing that, because it makes you both sound either bitterly partisan, or epically stupid. And we all know that neither of you are anywhere close to stupid.

Trump killed the deal because Obama signed it. You know it. I know it. The world knows it. Petty, grammar school diplomacy, enacted by a child. Stop defending him.

As I stated before, all Trump had to do was keep the deal in place, and threaten new sanctions over the missile development. The funny part is that both you are conceding that this was the obvious thing to do....by ignoring this notion, and doubling down.

We've entered the tech-oldsalt vortex where no matter what, Trump is a genius, and Obama can't tie his own shoelaces.