2024 Pool C

[Laxwizard]

@Laxattackjack hosting aside, how do you explain Bowdoin not getting a bid in your rankings but IL doesn't even have them on the bubble but rather safely in. Does Kaplan not get it too? Honest question.

i am not saying i am right. these are just opinions. i have other teams ahead of bowdoin with regional wins. strength of schedule etc. i could be wrong.

i have bowdoin with 2 regional wins
i have Amherst with 3 regional wins
Middlebury with 5 regional wins
Tufts with 7 regional wins.

plus you have Wesleyan as the conference champ. i don’t see 5 nescac teams making. there’s a possibility Bowdoin sneaks in over Amherst since the beat them head to head. but NCAA has a history of putting regional wins as a priority.

Thanks for the explanation. I Didn't see that Amherst had more wins than Bowdoin.

[LL_Insider]

Final Predicitions:

Gettysburg/Swarthmore will probably be a coin flip. Both teams will be sweating it out 9:30pm EST.

Pool B: Salisbury

Pool C:

Locks (3): RIT, Tufts, SLU
Most likely In (4): CNU, W&L, Bowdoin, Union
Bubble bids (2): Middlebury & Amherst
Last team In: Swarthmore
First 3 out : Gettysburg, Roanoke, Williams

[SixBySix]

Edit: It has been brought to my attention that, regrettably, Dickinson are the 2024 Centennial Conference champions and will not be taking a Pool C bid.

I think there is pretty widespread agreement that [redacted], CNU, SLU, RIT, and Tufts are in. That leaves six spots split between (RPI #s from LaxReference):
-Union 12-5, 0.6825
-Swarthmore 14-2, 0.6385
-Roanoke 13-4, 0.6376
-W&L 13-5, 0.6363
-Bowdoin, 11-5, 0.6253
-Middlebury 10-8, 0.6191
-Gettysburg 10-8, 0.6185
-Amherst 10-6, 0.6127

interesting note to be made of:
-Elmhurst, 13-4, 0.6433

From there, I think you pencil Union and drop Gettysburg. I don't think Elmhurst is really in the discussion, but wanted to scan Region IV and V for any potential surprises. Making the following assumptions about the final regional rankings: I unchanged other than order (Hamilton over Amherst, maybe?), II unchanged other than order, III York and Muhlenberg out Stevenson and Gettysburg in, IV RMC in HSC out (could also be Sewanee getting bumped out, would be great for the ODAC if so), Region V unchanged.

Leaves us with vRRO of:
Swat 2-2 (2-1 if Amherst drops)
Roanoke 3-4 (4-4 if both HSC and RMC make the final rankings)
W&L 6-5 (7-5 if HSC stays ranked)
Bowdoin 2-5 (1-5 if Amherst drops!)
Middlebury 5-6 (drops to 3-6 if no Amherst)
Amherst 3-6

Middlebury could maybe get in, especially if Amherst clings to the #7 Region I spot. I think Bowdoin is in trouble - could potentially sneak in and I think they would most likely bump Roanoke, but could also see it being Swat. At the end of the day, I think there may have been just too much NESCAC cannibalism, and will make the bold prediction of just 4 wannabe-Ivys in the final field.

My final Pool C projection: CNU, Tufts, SLU, Union,[whoops], RIT, Swarthmore, Roanoke, W&L, Middlebury + Bowdoin

Amusing note: I initially wrote this up forgetting that Lynchburg had a Pool A bid, and boy did that make things spicy. edit: well this looks even sillier now

[Laxguy3]

I think there is pretty widespread agreement that Dickinson, CNU, SLU, RIT, and Tufts are in. That leaves five spots split between (RPI #s from LaxReference):
-Union 12-5, 0.6825
-Swarthmore 14-2, 0.6385
-Roanoke 13-4, 0.6376
-W&L 13-5, 0.6363
-Bowdoin, 11-5, 0.6253
-Middlebury 10-8, 0.6191
-Gettysburg 10-8, 0.6185
-Amherst 10-6, 0.6127

interesting note to be made of:
-Elmhurst, 13-4, 0.6433

From there, I think you pencil Union and drop Gettysburg. I don't think Elmhurst is really in the discussion, but wanted to scan Region IV and V for any potential surprises. Making the following assumptions about the final regional rankings: I unchanged other than order (Hamilton over Amherst, maybe?), II unchanged other than order, III York and Muhlenberg out Stevenson and Gettysburg in, IV RMC in HSC out (could also be Sewanee getting bumped out, would be great for the ODAC if so), Region V unchanged.

Leaves us with vRRO of:
Swat 2-2 (2-1 if Amherst drops)
Roanoke 3-4 (4-4 if both HSC and RMC make the final rankings)
W&L 6-5 (7-5 if HSC stays ranked)
Bowdoin 2-5 (1-5 if Amherst drops!)
Middlebury 5-6 (drops to 3-6 if no Amherst)
Amherst 3-6

Middlebury could maybe get in, especially if Amherst clings to the #7 Region I spot. I think Bowdoin is in trouble - could potentially sneak in and I think they would most likely bump Roanoke, but could also see it being Swat. At the end of the day, I think there may have been just too much NESCAC cannibalism, and will make the bold prediction of just 3 wannabe-Ivys in the final field.

My final Pool C projection: CNU, Tufts, SLU, Union, Dickinson, RIT, Swarthmore, Roanoke, W&L, Middlebury

Amusing note: I initially wrote this up forgetting that Lynchburg had a Pool A bid, and boy did that make things spicy.

Great analysis, although Dickinson is a Pool A team with winning the Centennial Conference. That would leave an additional spot for Bowdoin, Amherst, or Gettysburg

[SixBySix]

Great analysis, although Dickinson is a Pool A team with winning the Centennial Conference. That would leave an additional spot for Bowdoin, Amherst, or Gettysburg

Lol, damnit. Well at least I caught the same issue with the ODAC on my own . I even watched most of the CC final.

Give me Bowdoin with the last spot, with the Lord Mammoths and the Spare Ammunition left outside looking in.

[Jumbo]

i have seen a few comments about York, HSC or Amherst dropping out of regional ranking. doesn’t NCAA rank teams for regional ranking, based on regional wins? other teams that were not ranked, would have to have won regional wins this past week, to bump those out. is that correct?

[balderdash]

LL_insider - I just struggle to see a committee of human beings taking Swat over the team that just knocked them out of their conference tourney, especially if they weigh that more. If it were a computer selection like next year, could absolutely see it. But I think you're dead on that it's a coin flip. What does the committee value more, most recent HTH vs less losses vs. better SOS.

Swat cons: who have they beaten from another region and/or conference to prove they deserve to be in over? It's the double edged sword of a softer OOC schedule (which for all you know could be mandated by the school - no travel for games in excess of 100 miles or something unless its spring break ) ... win the Centennial and they probably would've been top 5... lose and now one could be sitting there going "who did they beat outside the Centennial?"

Gettysburg cons:
They've had numerous chances to beat ranked opponents and were only able to do so 3 times (1 reg v team, 1 reg iv team, swat). 2 unranked losses (muhlenberg, wac). Where muhlenberg and Stevenson end up ranking wise could play a lot into their evaluation

[LL_Insider]

LL_insider - I just struggle to see a committee of human beings taking Swat over the team that just knocked them out of their conference tourney, especially if they weigh that more. If it were a computer selection like next year, could absolutely see it. But I think you're dead on that it's a coin flip. What does the committee value more, most recent HTH vs less losses vs. better SOS.

Swat cons: who have they beaten from another region and/or conference to prove they deserve to be in over? It's the double edged sword of a softer OOC schedule (which for all you know could be mandated by the school - no travel for games in excess of 100 miles or something unless its spring break ) ... win the Centennial and they probably would've been top 5... lose and now one could be sitting there going "who did they beat outside the Centennial?"

Gettysburg cons:
They've had numerous chances to beat ranked opponents and were only able to do so 3 times (1 reg v team, 1 reg iv team, swat). 2 unranked losses (muhlenberg, wac). Where muhlenberg and Stevenson end up ranking wise could play a lot into their evaluation

You said it, I think the Muhlenhberg, WAC, and Dickinson loss (2x) are going to bite them In the behind. On top of that, I simply think Getty has too many losses - they are sitting at 10-8 with a 55% win percentage. I totally get what you are saying with SOS and that is definitely a fair point. However if you're going to schedule a tough OOC schedule, you'd better win most of them or else things can get scary really quickly when you get back into conference play late In the season then drop 2 games you're not supposed to.

Either way, if the commitee goes with better SOS, I'm not going to complain. In theory, two teams that are In the same conference while one played a tougher OOC schedule and did better In their conference tournament get selected over a team that played an extremely weak OOC schedule and recently got beat H2H, that makes sense.

Personally, I would choose Gettysburg over Swarthmore. I just have a sinking feeling the coin flip will go Swarthmore's way

[SixBySix]

And to the hosting question, this is far from optimized, but there does appear to be a bracket with only 2 predicted flights with Salisbury, CNU, Wesleyan, RPI, RIT, Tufts, Dickinson, and Denison hosting.

1 Salisbury
32 Lake Forrest/ Aurora
16 Stevens
17 Roanoke

9 Lynchburg
24 Cabrini
8 CNU
25 CENTRE/PFEIFFER

4 Wesleyan
29 Scranton
13 Union
20 Endicott

12 Bowdoin
21 SJF
5 RPI
28 St Marys

2 RIT
31 Suny Poly / Farmingdale
15 Middlebury
18 Stevens

10 Swarthmore
23 Grove City
7 Denison
26 Translyvania/ Hope

3 Tufts
30 St Josephs/ Plymouth State
14 SLU
19 Babson

11 W&L
22 Geneseo
6 Dickinson
27 John Carrol/ IWU

[Jumbo]

And to the hosting question, this is far from optimized, but there does appear to be a bracket with only 2 predicted flights with Salisbury, CNU, Wesleyan, RPI, RIT, Tufts, Dickinson, and Denison hosting.

1 Salisbury
32 Lake Forrest/ Aurora
16 Stevens
17 Roanoke

9 Lynchburg
24 Cabrini
8 CNU
25 CENTRE/PFEIFFER

4 Wesleyan
29 Scranton
13 Union
20 Endicott

12 Bowdoin
21 SJF
5 RPI
28 St Marys

2 RIT
31 Suny Poly / Farmingdale
15 Middlebury
18 Stevens

10 Swarthmore
23 Grove City
7 Denison
26 Translyvania/ Hope

3 Tufts
30 St Josephs/ Plymouth State
14 SLU
19 Babson

11 W&L
22 Geneseo
6 Dickinson
27 John Carrol/ IWU

you have stevens doing a lot of traveling

[Motorman]

And to the hosting question, this is far from optimized, but there does appear to be a bracket with only 2 predicted flights with Salisbury, CNU, Wesleyan, RPI, RIT, Tufts, Dickinson, and Denison hosting.

1 Salisbury
32 Lake Forrest/ Aurora
16 Stevens
17 Roanoke

9 Lynchburg
24 Cabrini
8 CNU
25 CENTRE/PFEIFFER

4 Wesleyan
29 Scranton
13 Union
20 Endicott

12 Bowdoin
21 SJF
5 RPI
28 St Marys

2 RIT
31 Suny Poly / Farmingdale
15 Middlebury
18 Stevens

10 Swarthmore
23 Grove City
7 Denison
26 Translyvania/ Hope

3 Tufts
30 St Josephs/ Plymouth State
14 SLU
19 Babson

11 W&L
22 Geneseo
6 Dickinson
27 John Carrol/ IWU

you have stevens doing a lot of traveling

About 250 miles to Salisbury from Hoboken

[SixBySix]

you have stevens doing a lot of traveling

One is Papa Stevens, one is Steven's son. Really could put either in either spot. Good catch though!

[ToeDipper78]

NCAA needs a Selection Sunday pre-show run by posters from this board just going at it, in a fun way. But earlier than 10pm on Sunday, come on already. Should also be a look-in view at Swat, Kenyon, Roanoke, Bowdoin, Getty, etc. for their reactions.

[ah23]

Wait…Union is hosting a regional pod that includes Tufts??

[Dlaxva5]

They have rules on number of miles a team can travel. With Wesleyan hosting Albany is easier radius then Boston

[LL_Insider]

Final Predicitions:

Gettysburg/Swarthmore will probably be a coin flip. Both teams will be sweating it out 9:30pm EST.

Pool B: Salisbury

Pool C:

Locks (3): RIT, Tufts, SLU
Most likely In (4): CNU, W&L, Bowdoin, Union
Bubble bids (2): Middlebury & Amherst
Last team In: Swarthmore
First 3 out : Gettysburg, Roanoke, Williams

I'll take 9/10

But Roanoke getting In at all is a complete joke. I don't care about their # of "regionally ranked wins". Objectively speaking, their best win is against Grove City.

[SouthieLax]

Horrible bracket. Koudelka scratching the back of his friends. Roanoke getting in is indefensible but Union hosting Tufts is just crooked under every single metric.

[LL_Insider]

Comparing Roanoke and Amherst resume's it't simply not even close with wins over RPI, Hamilton, Swat, Getty, and Williams. Bulletin board material for the kids In Western MA next season.

[SixBySix]

Well, I got Pool C right and went 10/12 on first round games. Hosting is always much more difficult (and to be honest, I was feeling some time pressure by the time I was trying to put that part together!).

[CentennialPundit]

Final Predicitions:

Gettysburg/Swarthmore will probably be a coin flip. Both teams will be sweating it out 9:30pm EST.

Pool B: Salisbury

Pool C:

Locks (3): RIT, Tufts, SLU
Most likely In (4): CNU, W&L, Bowdoin, Union
Bubble bids (2): Middlebury & Amherst
Last team In: Swarthmore
First 3 out : Gettysburg, Roanoke, Williams

I'll take 9/10

But Roanoke getting In at all is a complete joke. I don't care about their # of "regionally ranked wins". Objectively speaking, their best win is against Grove City.

Yea the regionality really does not work for lacrosse. I actually can’t think of a worse way to rank teams specifically for lacrosse.