2024 Bracketology

[rolldodge]

I'm curious about the rationale behind having Notre Dame as the top seed, especially in light of their upcoming challenging games. Does anyone think their position might change based on these games, or are they solid enough to maintain their top spot regardless?

Things will definitely change based on the outcome of these games. I believe these analyses are based upon current results and extrapolating similar results going forward, which almost never happens. For example, Georgetown can go from getting a good seed to not being in the tournament at all depending on how the do versus Denver Saturday plus the BE tournament.

Notre Dame probably is a lock for the tournament, but the upcoming results will definitely effect their seeding.

[AreaLax]

IL’s bracket

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ave-/63076

[Mr3Putt]

Does a bad loss come into play w seeding? Yes, I know RPI. Somewhere along the way you have to look at wins & losses. As an example, Hopkins losing to Navy is a bad loss. Maryland & Va both have a high RPI and look beatable. Va w 4 straight losses has to be considered. Pete Lasalla is missed.

[10stone5]

Yeah - they'll be looking at something like this,

https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd

5 of the top 10 RPI teams have losses to teams outside the top 20.

[joewillie78]

I think I asked this before, but has ANY TEAM LOST their final 4 games and still made the tournament?

I think this may be unprecedented but the historians on this forum may know more than I.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[44WeWantMore]

Yes, four losses, but all to top-4 Power-ranked teams.

It's the trend and the eye test that is more concerning, and I don't think the committee uses those any more than they use Power Rankings.

P.S. Top 7 losses according to Massey.

[coda]

I think I asked this before, but has ANY TEAM LOST their final 4 games and still made the tournament?

I think this may be unprecedented but the historians on this forum may know more than I.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Here we are with UVA. 4 straight losses and knowing 1 win in the last 2 games locked up a spot, they lost. RPI and computers like them. Personally, I would leave them out. I think the real odds of them being left out are like 20-30% though

[Mr3Putt]

RPI is not telling the story w Virginia . 4 straight losses, and giving up an avg of 16 goals in those games. If you can leave Duke & ND out in 22’ you can certainly leave this Va team out!!!

[wgdsr]

nah. yesterday, i was concerned how numbers and ivy games might break. sites aren't all updated with yesterday's games yet, but virginia looks safe. they have insurance with the terps win, @ maryland.

think umd, cornell and denver are yuge penn state fans today.

g'town, p'ton and penn are aq or bust. yale is done. if penn state wins, committee might order pizza and get home early.

[joewillie78]

Man, put yourself on the committee and having to make that call.

Here we have a team with astronomical computer numbers who have lost their last 4 games, and looked pretty bad doing it.

I mean, this is Virginia, with gobs of talent, and we are going to leave them out.

I'm not sure if I'm a committee member if I could make that call.

The "safe" call obviously is to leave them in and the"OMG" call would be to leave them out.

I personally don't see anyway they could be left out, but this committee, year after year shocks me with some of their calls.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[Young Warrior]

Two crucial games teams done and on the bubble will be watching:

Nova / Gtown - not sure it’s as interesting as the Big east likely gets two. Denver and the winner today. Loser out?

Michigan / PsU more interesting
Does Michigan have a chance if they lose close? Their RPI sits just behind Yale and Cornell which doesn’t help.
RPI loves Maryland, who looks horrible right now and who Mich beat.
Mich SOS is 9.

Also reading lot of stuff about “could UVA be left out”. I can’t see it at all but I couldn’t see ND being left out a few years ago either. Not sure I would pick any bubble team over UVA, even in their current form.

[wgdsr]

Man, put yourself on the committee and having to make that call.

Here we have a team with astronomical computer numbers who have lost their last 4 games, and looked pretty bad doing it.

I mean, this is Virginia, with gobs of talent, and we are going to leave them out.

I'm not sure if I'm a committee member if I could make that call.

The "safe" call obviously is to leave them in and the"OMG" call would be to leave them out.

I personally don't see anyway they could be left out, but this committee, year after year shocks me with some of their calls.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

they do make some crazy calls. eye test was never supposed to be part of it and they've said they've been instructed as much. and then at least one in the last several years said they did.

for now, uva can sit on the "when you win/lose doesn't matter". don't see any way tho that the terps could be taken ahead of them, and they have looked really poor the last 2 games. and then teams beyond that don't have the resume.

[HopFan16]

Virginia is safely in. The fact is, their overall resume is still better than a lot of other teams. It’s not a Duke/ND 2022 situation.

The committee taking recent form into account would create so many more problems than if they occasionally let in a team like UVA that may not be playing well but has nonetheless put together the body of work to get a spot. It has to be this way

[Finster]

Man, put yourself on the committee and having to make that call.

Here we have a team with astronomical computer numbers who have lost their last 4 games, and looked pretty bad doing it.

I mean, this is Virginia, with gobs of talent, and we are going to leave them out.

I'm not sure if I'm a committee member if I could make that call.

The "safe" call obviously is to leave them in and the"OMG" call would be to leave them out.

I personally don't see anyway they could be left out, but this committee, year after year shocks me with some of their calls.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

they do make some crazy calls. eye test was never supposed to be part of it and they've said they've been instructed as much. and then at least one in the last several years said they did.

for now, uva can sit on the "when you win/lose doesn't matter". don't see any way tho that the terps could be taken ahead of them, and they have looked really poor the last 2 games. and then teams beyond that don't have the resume.

I think UVA gets in, and the Terps get left out.

[wgdsr]

Man, put yourself on the committee and having to make that call.

Here we have a team with astronomical computer numbers who have lost their last 4 games, and looked pretty bad doing it.

I mean, this is Virginia, with gobs of talent, and we are going to leave them out.

I'm not sure if I'm a committee member if I could make that call.

The "safe" call obviously is to leave them in and the"OMG" call would be to leave them out.

I personally don't see anyway they could be left out, but this committee, year after year shocks me with some of their calls.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

they do make some crazy calls. eye test was never supposed to be part of it and they've said they've been instructed as much. and then at least one in the last several years said they did.

for now, uva can sit on the "when you win/lose doesn't matter". don't see any way tho that the terps could be taken ahead of them, and they have looked really poor the last 2 games. and then teams beyond that don't have the resume.

I think UVA gets in, and the Terps get left out.

everything turns on psu/mich.
psu wins, it's a walk in the park no brainer.
mich wins? 3 or 4 teams are gonna get a proctology exam. don't believe uva will be one of them. but i've been wrong before.

[The Orfling]

Virginia is safely in. The fact is, their overall resume is still better than a lot of other teams. It’s not a Duke/ND 2022 situation.

The committee taking recent form into account would create so many more problems than if they occasionally let in a team like UVA that may not be playing well but has nonetheless put together the body of work to get a spot. It has to be this way

Agree. Once the ACC as a conference did as well as it did in non-conference games in 2024, the RPI edge kicks in and losing to other high-RPI conference foes doesn't hurt them. This is the norm for the ACC -- in 2022 the ACC had a down year as a conference and the Ivies had the out-of-conference success and the RPI edge and got the historic 6 Ivy teams in the tournament. This year it's back to the standard "great RPI ACC" and four ACC teams are safely in. What's at issue is seeding; I think UVA still gets a seed but towards the lower part of the seeded bracket.

[wgdsr]

Virginia is safely in. The fact is, their overall resume is still better than a lot of other teams. It’s not a Duke/ND 2022 situation.

The committee taking recent form into account would create so many more problems than if they occasionally let in a team like UVA that may not be playing well but has nonetheless put together the body of work to get a spot. It has to be this way

Agree. Once the ACC as a conference did as well as it did in non-conference games in 2024, the RPI edge kicks in and losing to other high-RPI conference foes doesn't hurt them. This is the norm for the ACC -- in 2022 the ACC had a down year as a conference and the Ivies had the out-of-conference success and the RPI edge and got the historic 6 Ivy teams in the tournament. This year it's back to the standard "great RPI ACC" and four ACC teams are safely in. What's at issue is seeding; I think UVA still gets a seed but towards the lower part of the seeded bracket.

think i've been overly harsh to yale's prospects, orfling. i do think they're going to be looked at. and maybe pretty hard. if they throw out own rpi as some guiding metric and get to wins and losses that matter, yale may look okay.

[Finster]

Man, put yourself on the committee and having to make that call.

Here we have a team with astronomical computer numbers who have lost their last 4 games, and looked pretty bad doing it.

I mean, this is Virginia, with gobs of talent, and we are going to leave them out.

I'm not sure if I'm a committee member if I could make that call.

The "safe" call obviously is to leave them in and the"OMG" call would be to leave them out.

I personally don't see anyway they could be left out, but this committee, year after year shocks me with some of their calls.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

they do make some crazy calls. eye test was never supposed to be part of it and they've said they've been instructed as much. and then at least one in the last several years said they did.

for now, uva can sit on the "when you win/lose doesn't matter". don't see any way tho that the terps could be taken ahead of them, and they have looked really poor the last 2 games. and then teams beyond that don't have the resume.

I think UVA gets in, and the Terps get left out.

everything turns on psu/mich.
psu wins, it's a walk in the park no brainer.
mich wins? 3 or 4 teams are gonna get a proctology exam. don't believe uva will be one of them. but i've been wrong before.

+1

That's probably the best summarization I've heard.

[wgdsr]

Man, put yourself on the committee and having to make that call.

Here we have a team with astronomical computer numbers who have lost their last 4 games, and looked pretty bad doing it.

I mean, this is Virginia, with gobs of talent, and we are going to leave them out.

I'm not sure if I'm a committee member if I could make that call.

The "safe" call obviously is to leave them in and the"OMG" call would be to leave them out.

I personally don't see anyway they could be left out, but this committee, year after year shocks me with some of their calls.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

they do make some crazy calls. eye test was never supposed to be part of it and they've said they've been instructed as much. and then at least one in the last several years said they did.

for now, uva can sit on the "when you win/lose doesn't matter". don't see any way tho that the terps could be taken ahead of them, and they have looked really poor the last 2 games. and then teams beyond that don't have the resume.

I think UVA gets in, and the Terps get left out.

everything turns on psu/mich.
psu wins, it's a walk in the park no brainer.
mich wins? 3 or 4 teams are gonna get a proctology exam. don't believe uva will be one of them. but i've been wrong before.

+1

That's probably the best summarization I've heard.

it's a little too simplistic. denver for example looks good if it were selected this morning. but villanova loses and they maybe slip out of the top 20? the committee starts looking @ head-to-head and who has a "bad loss"? you've got a cornell/yale/denver triumvirate, and only one team will have a bad loss.

[The Orfling]

Virginia is safely in. The fact is, their overall resume is still better than a lot of other teams. It’s not a Duke/ND 2022 situation.

The committee taking recent form into account would create so many more problems than if they occasionally let in a team like UVA that may not be playing well but has nonetheless put together the body of work to get a spot. It has to be this way

Agree. Once the ACC as a conference did as well as it did in non-conference games in 2024, the RPI edge kicks in and losing to other high-RPI conference foes doesn't hurt them. This is the norm for the ACC -- in 2022 the ACC had a down year as a conference and the Ivies had the out-of-conference success and the RPI edge and got the historic 6 Ivy teams in the tournament. This year it's back to the standard "great RPI ACC" and four ACC teams are safely in. What's at issue is seeding; I think UVA still gets a seed but towards the lower part of the seeded bracket.

think i've been overly harsh to yale's prospects, orfling. i do think they're going to be looked at. and maybe pretty hard. if they throw out own rpi as some guiding metric and get to wins and losses that matter, yale may look okay.

I agree they'll get a look -- but I just can't see it when some very good teams ahead of them in RPI would be left out. I know "eye test" isn't a thing but one wonders also if the selection committee will be thinking about a fact that they've been decimated at the FOGO position and would have a tough time as an unseeded entry up against a top team. (Similar to how the football playoff selection committee left out undefeated FSU because the star quarterback was hurt.). Anyway, I'm enough of a impassioned fan that of course I'd love to see Yale sneak in but I accept that's pretty unlikely.