WLAX Bracketology

[LaxDadMax]

Seeding talk

Based on this weekend's results, I think #1 and #2 are pretty solid, well 3-8 may as well be a crap shoot.

Here is my take of seedings as of now. (Keep in mind this is where I think seeding will end up, not what I necessarily believe they should be)

1. NW
2. BC
3. Cuse
4. Penn
5. ND
6. MD
7. Loyola
8. Florida or Michigan

I think Michigan and UVA pretty much played themselves out of seeds this weekend.

You can’t give Florida one ,RPI of 17 and SOS of 37.

But a QWF of 11 (and likely increasing) plus the biggest winning streak in lax.

Someone help me out QWF ?

Quality win factor. Its a key metric the committee loses. Pretty much gives you more points for top 5 and top 10 wins and takes lots away from losses outside top 20

What does Florida have 3 top 20 wins with 1 top 10 Take UVA which has 6 top 20 wins and 2 top 10. So Florida is 3-2 against top 20 and UVA is 6-3 .I get UVA lost to Duke but not sure that gets it done for Florida and I dont think UVA gets a seed . Where did you see this QWF Ranking ?

Maybe you are right. But Florida will get a 4th top 20 win if they beat JMU in conference tourney, plus they will be a conference champ which NCAA uses as a seeding criteria.

QWF is posted on laxnumbers.

[flushlax77]

Based on this, and I hate this, tough NOT to pick team C. Still noodling who else...

I think I would take team C and based off that choice, I see it coming down to E and D. D lost to A & B teams. E has the win over the tournament team in C. Really crazy when you take the names of it.

[LaxDadMax]

Based on this, and I hate this, tough NOT to pick team C. Still noodling who else...

Based on this you have to pick B, then C

[Womenslaxxfan]

B lost to c. And c rpi is 30. So b worst loss is 30 and they have zero top 20 wins.
B isn’t making it.

[ertrader]

Interesting and just depends on what you value. I immediately eliminate B and D. Weakest schedules and no better records than anyone else. Then E gets the boot - A and F easily better. So we are left with A, C and F pick 2. I'd tend toward A and F because C is barely .500 and has a blowout loss to a team I already eliminated.

[flushlax77]

It’s interesting how people look at it in different ways. A lost to B. B lost to C. C has the highest high with E have the second highest high by beating C in that group. If I take C and E…I think B is the most upset.

[gbswingames]

Based on a comment above. I did this without teams RPI listed so that people didnt go chalk based on RPI. Pick 2 teams to enter the tournament!

Team A:
Record:10-5
SOS: 26
Worst Loss: #28
Best Win: #25
Notes: Lost to Team B by 1

Team B:
Team Record: 10-4
SOS: 50
Worst Loss: #15
Notes: Beat Team A by 1, Lost to Team C by 2

Team C:
Record 10-8
SOS: 8
Worst Loss:#27
Best Win: #9
Notes: Beat Team B by 2

Team D:
Record 14-3
SOS:55
Worst Loss:37
Best Win: #30
Notes: Beat Team C by 1

Team E:
Record:11-7
SOS: 22
Worst Loss: #41
Best Win: #30
Notes: Beat Team C by 9

Team D:
Record: 12-4
SOS: 24
Worst Loss: 35
Best Win: #26
Notes: Worst loss is against a team that A and B beat

I'd take D & E. Own the head to head vs C. Is C's win vs #9 an outlier, or who they are? On flipside, are C's 5 RC defeats an outlier, or who they are?

[Shellax]

Can I go chalk(?) for not looking at RPI , it is a primary criteria in the selection process.

[flushlax77]

Can I go chalk(?) for not looking at RPI , it is a primary criteria in the selection process.

If the committee goes chalk on the RPI, the tournament would not be reflective of the best teams they could add. If they go by RPI, Brown makes the tournament.

Browns big wins according to Jeremey are UMASS (who lost to holy cross and needed 2 last minute saves to knock off st Joesph’s) and Albany who just barely beat UMASS-Lowell.

Do the lower seeds matter? Probably not. I would love an Ivy team to go on a run, but I just don’t understand the need to have 4 of them in the NCAA tournament. Give me Duke/Navy/Clemson with that last spot. RPI won’t give you that.

[NULax2]

Latest from USA lax mag.

https://www.usalacrosse.com/magazine/co ... nearly-set

[BigRedChant]

Can I go chalk(?) for not looking at RPI , it is a primary criteria in the selection process.

If the committee goes chalk on the RPI, the tournament would not be reflective of the best teams they could add. If they go by RPI, Brown makes the tournament.

Browns big wins according to Jeremey are UMASS (who lost to holy cross and needed 2 last minute saves to knock off st Joesph’s) and Albany who just barely beat UMASS-Lowell.

Do the lower seeds matter? Probably not. I would love an Ivy team to go on a run, but I just don’t understand the need to have 4 of them in the NCAA tournament. Give me Duke/Navy/Clemson with that last spot. RPI won’t give you that.

Including Duke and Clemson would be equal to giving them a participation trophy just because they are in the ACC

[Womenslaxxfan]

Can I go chalk(?) for not looking at RPI , it is a primary criteria in the selection process.

If the committee goes chalk on the RPI, the tournament would not be reflective of the best teams they could add. If they go by RPI, Brown makes the tournament.

Browns big wins according to Jeremey are UMASS (who lost to holy cross and needed 2 last minute saves to knock off st Joesph’s) and Albany who just barely beat UMASS-Lowell.

Do the lower seeds matter? Probably not. I would love an Ivy team to go on a run, but I just don’t understand the need to have 4 of them in the NCAA tournament. Give me Duke/Navy/Clemson with that last spot. RPI won’t give you that.

Including Duke and Clemson would be equal to giving them a participation trophy just because they are in the ACC

Clemson has zero chance. But Duke beat the 9 team. If any other bubble teams had a top 10 win, people would be clamoring them forget to get into the tournament. Duke’s biggest issue is its RPI of 31. It’ll be interesting to see what the committee values.
I personally don’t care, which of the bubble teams gets in, because none of them are going to make much noise, but it is interesting to see what the committee values on a year to year basis.

[BigRedChant]

Can I go chalk(?) for not looking at RPI , it is a primary criteria in the selection process.

If the committee goes chalk on the RPI, the tournament would not be reflective of the best teams they could add. If they go by RPI, Brown makes the tournament.

Browns big wins according to Jeremey are UMASS (who lost to holy cross and needed 2 last minute saves to knock off st Joesph’s) and Albany who just barely beat UMASS-Lowell.

Do the lower seeds matter? Probably not. I would love an Ivy team to go on a run, but I just don’t understand the need to have 4 of them in the NCAA tournament. Give me Duke/Navy/Clemson with that last spot. RPI won’t give you that.

Including Duke and Clemson would be equal to giving them a participation trophy just because they are in the ACC

Clemson has zero chance. But Duke beat the 9 team. If any other bubble teams had a top 10 win, people would be clamoring them forget to get into the tournament. Duke’s biggest issue is its RPI of 31. It’ll be interesting to see what the committee values.
I personally don’t care, which of the bubble teams gets in, because none of them are going to make much noise, but it is interesting to see what the committee values on a year to year basis.

What they do in the actual tournament might be a nothing burger - but I’m sure making the tournament would be HUGE for some of these programs

[flushlax77]

I’m using Clemson as an example of a bubble team, throw USC in there instead with the Duke/Navy crew than. Don’t get caught up on the example…for what it’s worth I think navy would be a best pick.

I just don’t think the Ivy has 4 tournament caliber teams and I don’t think they are so deep that the 5TH place team gets a call. Facts say that Brown was the 5th place team.

If Duke was in the Ivy, they would have finished in 3rd place. They beat Harvard. Duke beat UVA who happened to beat their third place team. The ACC is objectively better than the Ivy. Their best team lost to the best team in the ACC by 8 goals…

[610Lax]

I’m using Clemson as an example of a bubble team, throw USC in there instead with the Duke/Navy crew than. Don’t get caught up on the example…for what it’s worth I think navy would be a best pick.

I just don’t think the Ivy has 4 tournament caliber teams and I don’t think they are so deep that the 5TH place team gets a call. Facts say that Brown was the 5th place team.

If Duke was in the Ivy, they would have finished in 3rd place. They beat Harvard. Duke beat UVA who happened to beat their third place team. The ACC is objectively better than the Ivy. Their best team lost to the best team in the ACC by 8 goals…

Duke has had many opportunities to show they are a tournament team and they've failed. Even their wins, vs supposedly lesser opponents at HOME in E Car, Pitt and Harvard were by 2 or 3 goals and a 1 goal win vs VT on the road, don't exemplify a tournament team. They've been beat by 5 or more goals in 5 games with 3 double digit losses. Not to mention being absolutely destroyed by BC in the ACC quarterfinals and losing 3 of their last 4 games.

I'd much rather see a Richmond, Niagara, Colorado or Drexel in the tournament instead of Duke. You don't really know what those teams are going to do against top level teams but you do know what Duke is going to do. One win vs Virginia shouldn't be the only criteria to get in the tournament.

[610Lax]

Can I go chalk(?) for not looking at RPI , it is a primary criteria in the selection process.

If the committee goes chalk on the RPI, the tournament would not be reflective of the best teams they could add. If they go by RPI, Brown makes the tournament.

Browns big wins according to Jeremey are UMASS (who lost to holy cross and needed 2 last minute saves to knock off st Joesph’s) and Albany who just barely beat UMASS-Lowell.

Do the lower seeds matter? Probably not. I would love an Ivy team to go on a run, but I just don’t understand the need to have 4 of them in the NCAA tournament. Give me Duke/Navy/Clemson with that last spot. RPI won’t give you that.

Including Duke and Clemson would be equal to giving them a participation trophy just because they are in the ACC

Exactly!!!

[spidey44]

Does Navy taking Loyola to OT yesterday push them over the edge??

*Edited to add I didn't realize their best win was against #30... hmmm

[NULax2]

Does Navy taking Loyola to OT yesterday push them over the edge??

*Edited to add I didn't realize their best win was against #30... hmmm

If it came down to navy versus duke, for a spot in the dance, I’d rather see navy.

[hmmm]

Does Navy taking Loyola to OT yesterday push them over the edge??

*Edited to add I didn't realize their best win was against #30... hmmm

If it came down to navy versus duke, for a spot in the dance, I’d rather see navy.

Don't forget the Save Kimel's Job factor in all this. Navy definitely deserves a spot over Duke though.

[Womenslaxxfan]

Does Navy taking Loyola to OT yesterday push them over the edge??

*Edited to add I didn't realize their best win was against #30... hmmm

If it came down to navy versus duke, for a spot in the dance, I’d rather see navy.

The amount of Duke hate on this board is pretty hilarious.

None of these teams has a great claim to be included. Have no clue what the committee will value. “Inclusion” however, isn’t listed as a criteria! So no to Niagara. No to usc. The AQs already provide enough opportunities to “fill out” the tournament with non traditional representation.

The reason I personally would select Duke over brown or Harvard or navy or usc or Clemson or Colorado or any of the other bubble teams is the same reason the committee chose Penn state a few years ago: They are the ONLY team in that group that has shown an ability to actually beat a top team. Not almost beat, not “be competitive”, not “they never got beat badly”.
I’d want to favor in the last in bubble a team that might make noise and has demonstrated an ability to do so. This year, only Duke fits that bill.

If usc had beaten, say, Hopkins, I’d be advocating for them. But they didn’t.

My guess is they don’t make it. But I’m hoping they get the “Penn state treatment”.