Johns Hopkins 2024

[norcalhop]

If Hopkins is seeded ahead of Cuse it's because they will have a lot more quality wins. Right now they have 7 to Cuse's 4. Is having three more wins and the higher RPI enough to overcome the areas where Cuse has the advantage? (e.g. the H2H, not having a "bad loss"). Reasonable people can disagree. I don't think it's that obvious one way or the other. Wouldn't be shocked either way. Cuse certainly has an argument.

I do think our overall resume is superior to Denver's, even accounting for the H2H. I would love another crack at the Pios in the 3v6 or 4v5 quarterfinal matchup.

Syracuse does have two top five wins (including Hopkins), Hopkins has none. Hopkins has the bad loss against Navy as well. No idea how the committee ranks these things, but if things are close, I would imagine SU should get the benefit of the doubt. We shall see, the remaining games might make this argument pointless.

Another aspect that might make this pointless in the grad scheme of things, geography dictates so much of the first round matchups.

Hopkins is also champion of a top conference and beat UMD who Syracuse lost to. More over, Hopkins' top wins were away (outside of Maryland).

I'd give the edge to Hopkins unless Syracuse wins the ACC tournament and Hopkins stumbles in the Big10 tournament.

There’s little need to compare common opponents when two teams have actually played. Their resumes are very similar and cuse has the head to head. They have the edge.

Disagree. Hopkins top wins were away (outside of Maryland). An away win should count more than a home win - especially when Syracuse played 7 straight home games before beating Hopkins at a neutral site. Regardless, conference tourney results should render this discussion moot.

Lol you’re dreaming. Cuse has 2 top 5 wins, Hop has none. Idc where it happened.

Is that why they are ranked below hopkins right now in RPI and other polls? Perhaps you need to wake up

[44WeWantMore]

In fairness, by this time of year, I believe the Power Rankings are the best measure of the full body of work, and they show Syracuse ahead of JHU.

Each has conference tournaments to worry about first.

[51percentcorn]

I would agree that right now Syracuse ranked/rated/seeded ahead of Hopkins makes sense. If Hopkins won the BIG and Syracuse loses to Duke so we are at 12-3 vs. 11-5 and Hopkins gets another Top 10 win - the question then becomes way more legitimate. Those are huge IFs of course. These Power rankings don't seem to work for me '44 - there's no measure on God's green earth that puts Penn State ahead of Hopkins RPI/SOS/QWF/H2H/Conference record/Polls

[44WeWantMore]

It is because the power rankings incorporate margin of victory, and when you thrash a good team like Cornell, it counts heavily, while a bunch of one-goal wins do not count as heavily. And one of JHU's one-goal losses was to Navy, and the model would have predicted a large margin for the Jays, hence that also had a big impact.

[jhu06]

In fairness, by this time of year, I believe the Power Rankings are the best measure of the full body of work, and they show Syracuse ahead of JHU.

Each has conference tournaments to worry about first.

The third/fourth best team in a conference ahead of jhu because of 1 neutral site goal. OK.

[norcalhop]

In fairness, by this time of year, I believe the Power Rankings are the best measure of the full body of work, and they show Syracuse ahead of JHU.

Each has conference tournaments to worry about first.

That ranking is egregiously bad and not worth the server costs. UVa and Penn State ahead as well as others have echoed?

[HopFan16]

Any ranking that includes scoring margin should be taken with a big heaping of salt. Not saying it's worthless, but I'm very skeptical. Not only do final scores often belie the tenor of the actual game but lacrosse seasons are so short than one or two lopsided results have an outsized effect on the final tally. Beating a team by 4 is not always more impressive than beating a team by 3, and yet that's exactly what such a formula thinks 100% of the time.

Having said that, PSU is a very good team. Their efficiency metrics are great. They are probably the closest team in the country to us in terms of how they're built, how they play, etc. It's no surprise that game went to OT and if we happen to meet again in the B1G final or the NCAAs I would expect another tight one.

[HopFan16]

With Towson entering the RPI top 20 last night, for the time being, the Jays have a whopping eight top 20 wins. That's two more than the next closest team (Notre Dame). It's also four more than Denver and five more than Syracuse, who lost one of theirs when Colgate fell out of the top 20. All of that may not stick (Loyola's position at #20 is quite tenuous) but if I'm doing bracketology right now I'm thinking that's a fairly overwhelming profile for Hopkins at this point. The Navy loss is a blemish, and it'd help for UVA to get back in the top 5 (they're #6 right now), but eight wins with the #3 RPI and #2 SOS may not put you any lower than the 3 seed.

With the Jays not playing today, games to watch:

OSU vs. Michigan — we get the winner. Don't think it matters much who wins from a resume standpoint. The winner is going to stay locked into the top 20 while the loser could possibly fall out of it depending on other results.

Duke vs. UNC — we want UNC to win, though I cannot see that happening.

ND vs. UVA — we are Hoo fans today. Win gets them into the top 5 and knocks ND down a peg. We'd move up to #2 in RPI.

Rutgers vs. PSU — winner gets Maryland. If Rutgers somehow manages to pull off the upset (highly doubt it), it might put PSU on the bubble. Think they'd still get in, but would end up having to go on the road

[51percentcorn]

UNC taking Duke out to the Woodshed - barring an unprecendented comeback - Duke might miss the ACC tournament - UNC up 9 now with 11 minutes left. If Duke doesn't get it within 5 - if UVA beats Notre Dame - Duke is out of ACC

[norcalhop]

So what happens to Duke now? I imagine they will be seeded between 5 to 8 now.

[norcalhop]

The Duke UNC game is exhibit A of why again Faceoffs are so critical. They can stop runs or create them.

Hope Pete is scouring the transfer portal and division 3 for academically minded FOGOs.

[laxjuris]

So what happens to Duke now? I imagine they will be seeded between 5 to 8 now.

Duke this year is a fraud. They have no business being seeded.

[51percentcorn]

Duke has scored 4 in the last 2 minutes - UNC now up 5 with 4 minutes left - now up 3 with a minute - looks like uNC survives but for Duke to miss ACC tournament UVA now has to win over ND

[HopFan16]

Duke vs. UNC — we want UNC to win, though I cannot see that happening.

Welp, nevermind!

This result increases the Jays' seed ceiling. #1 or #2 is in play.

Michigan first on Thursday. They looked good today.

OSU is 11-18 the last two years with four losses to Michigan. Myers is under contract for a few more years but they need to start having tough conversations in Columbus.

[jhu06]

Results so far this weekend from most to least important

Denver wins-Bad
Rutgers wins-(TBD)
UNC wins (hurts Duke)-Really Really Good
Michigan wins (no OSU in front of home crowd in cbus)-Good
UVA Wins-TBD
Georgetown wins-Good
Towson wins-Good
Loyola loses-Bad
Navy wins-Good

By my count that's 5-2 with 2 tbd. Some help from old Hop friends Petros (UNC), Nadelen (Towson), Tinney/Conry (Michigan). I'm probably missing some connections on the list.

Also Hopkins didn't play so the guys got healthier, unless they ate at Terrace freshman cafeteria.

[JayBlue]

The Duke UNC game is exhibit A of why again Faceoffs are so critical. They can stop runs or create them.

Hope Pete is scouring the transfer portal and division 3 for academically minded FOGOs.

If Duke starts Cal Girard on FO going forward- Duke is going to be a huge threat to everyone. Kid is a menace!

[HopFan16]

Yale's loss takes them out of the RPI top 10 and puts Georgetown in in their place, giving the Jays four top 10 wins. Up to #2 in RPI after Duke's loss. If Virginia beats Notre Dame today, the Blue Jays will have a case for the top seed headed into the final weekend.

[jhu06]

Yale's loss takes them out of the RPI top 10 and puts Georgetown in in their place, giving the Jays four top 10 wins. Up to #2 in RPI after Duke's loss. If Virginia beats Notre Dame today, the Blue Jays will have a case for the top seed headed into the final weekend.

[51percentcorn]

25 UVA turnovers??? This team must drive our friend wg... nuts - now 26

[HopFan16]

25 UVA turnovers??? This team must drive our friend wg... nuts

Complete meltdown. As bad a second half I've seen them play since Lars was hired.

Looks like they will get another shot at ND next week though.