All Things Russia & Ukraine

[jhu72]

The House, lead by democratic votes passed the Ukraine, Israel, Tawain defense armaments bills yesterday. In the Senate FISA was reauthorized in a bipartisan fashion with 15 minutes to spare.

[dislaxxic]

With Republicans Like These, Who Needs Russian Propaganda?



..

[MDlaxfan76]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

[CU88a]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

[cradleandshoot]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

Why not?? DFJ is asleep most of the time. I don't think Joe is in any political game for the long run. Joe most challenging run happens when he realizes he has to pee.

[MDlaxfan76]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

I find it quite interesting that his approach resulted in a pretty amazing run of legislative successes both straight party lines and bipartisan, but mostly bipartisan. Whether one likes every legislative success or not, every policy priority or not, that's the reality.

Of course, he takes all sorts on incoming from the left for not ramming through more of their most desired matters and all sorts of incoming from the right for getting anything done at all, and not what they most want...but the record is pretty darn impressive if one's objective about it.

As to 2024, it seems to me that there are a whole lot of moderate Republicans or former Republicans now Independents who appreciate that he's not a flaming narcissistic jerk nor some commie lefty and will be ok supporting him over Trump, albeit without great enthusiasm. The Haley vote is instructive. I 'live' in that cohort and hear that hugely more than I did going into 2020, though there were significant rumblings then as well. Just much more "definite no to Trump" now.

The question seems to be whether the Dems will find a way to get their left and especially young left to show up, putting aside whatever their major peeve is (ie Gaza or cost of housing or...) with enough sense of urgency over the stark contrast in alternatives. They need that cohort to vote for the old guy who isn't going to give them everything they want...nor even tell them he will...because the other guy would be disastrous for EVERY policy issue they care most about.

It feels like at least some of the GOP has realized that they need to contribute somehow to governing and national defense rather than get entirely pigeonholed as dysfunctional and actually pro-Putin. Johnson's conversion from 4 times voting against aid to Ukraine to now invoking Churchill's The Gathering Storm (all of Churchill's works are on our shelves) is a work of great persuasion...nothing like actually seeing heavy intelligence and national security assessments!

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

[CU88a]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

+1

[Seacoaster(1)]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

+1

Very wise. They recognized that he is the key to the governmental body that unlatches the purse, and brought him into the circle enough to show him the importance of Ukraine defense, gave him the theoretically dispassionate analysis of the CIA, and let him drink it all in. But the real point, to me, is this: It is actually how government is supposed to work -- and did, in the ages before us when our opponents were still Americans at heart and soul and we didn't demonize and primary the gerrymandered folks who worked across party lines.

[cradleandshoot]

So what all of this means is the war can rage on indefinitely. I guess as long as Russian soldiers are being killed every day then this is the kind of war that Democrats are comfortable with. I know one thing for sure ...young Russian and Ukrainian dog faces are dying every day. Not unlike our soldiers in Vietnam. If you ask any of them why they are fighting and dying they probably don't know why anymore. So why are college students in the US not demanding a cease-fire??? They are demanding one in Israel. If your a college student today in America your free to choose what war is cool and copestetic and which one is immoral. How cool is that?

[NattyBohChamps04]

So what all of this means is the war can rage on indefinitely. I guess as long as Russian soldiers are being killed every day then this is the kind of war that Democrats are comfortable with. I know one thing for sure ...young Russian and Ukrainian dog faces are dying every day. Not unlike our soldiers in Vietnam. If you ask any of them why they are fighting and dying they probably don't know why anymore. So why are college students in the US not demanding a cease-fire??? They are demanding one in Israel. If your a college student today in America your free to choose what war is cool and copestetic and which one is immoral. How cool is that?

As long as Ukraine wants to keep fighting for their independence. Guess you're fine with them dying for nothing after surrendering. I mean it was only their country getting invaded. Their soldiers very much know why they're fighting.

A lot of Russian soldiers on the other hand probably have no clue.

Smokey, this is not 'Nam.

There were plenty of protests of the Russian invasion. On college campuses, invasion of Ukraine sparks protests, other acts of solidarity

[old salt]

How long is it worth prolonging this war ? How does it end ?

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/d ... term=first

Do We Win by Losing?

...{will} the U.S. and NATO do more damage to their credibility by fighting Russia in Ukraine and losing ...
...do not believe Russia has ever sent enough men to pacify the whole of Ukraine. ...attempting to swallow Western Ukraine would be like swallowing a porcupine. While it is something Russia could try, that would leave it severely wounded and would probably end in disaster. ...while it has the will to impose an adverse settlement on Ukraine, there is a pyrrhic quality to any victory. And that it would be so even if it was a smaller war against a Ukraine that was resisting not with loaned heavy weaponry but with an insurgency, guerrilla tactics, and flying columns.

...we are unnecessarily dissipating our credibility by staking it on a fight we are likely to lose — and that our defeat would add to Russian prestige, detract from our own, and lead Russia’s neighbors to readjust their behavior to Moscow’s benefit as they come to see Russia as more of a strong horse and the Western alliance as more of a paper tiger.

While there is some worry of Russia gaining prestige, it’s not the primary reason to avoid a needless war with Russia. Russia’s model is unattractive, and so its military victories aren’t going to persuade other nations to align with it. Russia’s only advantage on the global stage vis-a-vis America is found when it is seen as a status-quo power, whereas America is an unpredictable revolutionary one, setting fires it can’t put out (Iraq, Arab Spring). The Global South has basically stayed unaligned in this conflict ...for this reason.

The primary reason to avoid war with Russia isn’t humiliation but the fear of escalation to avoid humiliation, one that is occasioned by the way some Ukraine hawks conflate and blur the credibility of NATO with the successful defense of Ukraine. ...that if Ukraine is defeated, Russia will be emboldened and take on Poland next? If hawks really believe that, then, contra...reassurance that nobody wants NATO troops in Ukraine, we will be told that we have to put them in to fight in Ukraine or we’ll be putting them in Estonia and Poland next.

Secondarily, even if we do not find ourselves pot-committed in Ukraine, more than enhanced Russian prestige, ...the waste of resources and the prodigal attitude toward the patience of Americans to engage in losing proxy wars.

Thirdly, ...the long-term moral costs of assisting Ukraine’s more repressive forms of nationalism, and engaging in war with Russia. People remember their defeats, and they don’t always learn the moral lessons you wish they would.

Finally, more than fear of losing a war we shouldn’t have fought, ...dread “winning” almost as much, and taking on Ukraine as a giant financial and security liability going forward. ...doing so will make the West poorer, make Ukraine’s rebuilding more difficult, will tend to spread Ukrainian corruption to Western institutions, and generally be a project that Russia has ease in disrupting.

We didn’t do nothing in response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia. We put Russia under massive sanctions. We did so even though EU authorities concluded that Georgia had provoked the conflict. (“EU investigation says Tbilisi launched indiscriminate assault on South Ossetia.”) We also participated for years in covert assistance at overthrowing Russia’s ally Assad in Syria, hoping to deprive Russia of its naval assets in the Mediterranean. Once again, our foreign-policy blob had far outrun public opinion which was massively against what would have been a bloody and awful regime change in Syria. Again Russia intervened there and triaged its outcome. We didn’t do “nothing” in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we did more sanctions and we tried a strategy of building up Ukraine to have the largest army in Europe save for Russia’s. Of course Ukrainians want as many weapons to defend themselves now. But, ...Putin decided that he could not have Ukraine become a de facto member of NATO with a huge NATO-funded military. And that is what Ukraine, after 2014, would appear to be to any serious Russian leader.

When the history of this war is written, it was the outside influences hoping to profit from Ukraine, forcing upon its government all-or-nothing deals to turn West or back East, that destabilized and militarized its internal politics and made any modus vivendi impossible.

Ukrainian voters continued to seek that modus vivendi, to turn back the separatists and the ultra-nationalists when they voted for Zelensky. Too late, now it was a dare to see which power would compel the outcome it wanted to see. With no consensus in Europe about integrating Ukraine into NATO or the EU, and certainly none on ejecting Russia from Sevastopol, obviously Russia would have not only an upper hand, but a practical outcome at which it could aim.

...engaging in the war runs the risk that we end up bailing out and showing yet again that our will to fight can be outlasted, but we can avoid that end simply by continuing to support the Ukrainians so long as they are willing to keep fighting — and doing so while continuing to aid Israel and Taiwan.
...but the bill for doing so is much higher than what we just saw passed in the Congress last week. Nobody in the current White House seems to believe the promised level of support for Ukraine is sufficient for Ukraine to hold the line or make gains. Meanwhile, the promised aid takes up the production lines needed to fill back orders for Taiwan and replenish our own weapons stocks. When you’re committed effectively to dramatically expanding the number of countries that get a guaranteed defense from America, you have to commit to the dramatically expanding expense of doing so. Even if we appropriated the money, actually physically building out the industry — hiring and training the workers — could take years.

In two years ,we’ve seen a climbdown from the giddy talk that the Ukraine war would end with regime change in Russia. Now, we’re ...{looking for} ...the upsides of a losing outcome. ...in years to follow, we will acknowledge the opportunity costs and the waste of resources and life.

Podcast : interesting debate.
https://www.nationalreview.com/podcasts ... t/ukraine/

What do the US & NATO do if Ukraine collapses ?

[cradleandshoot]

So what all of this means is the war can rage on indefinitely. I guess as long as Russian soldiers are being killed every day then this is the kind of war that Democrats are comfortable with. I know one thing for sure ...young Russian and Ukrainian dog faces are dying every day. Not unlike our soldiers in Vietnam. If you ask any of them why they are fighting and dying they probably don't know why anymore. So why are college students in the US not demanding a cease-fire??? They are demanding one in Israel. If your a college student today in America your free to choose what war is cool and copestetic and which one is immoral. How cool is that?

As long as Ukraine wants to keep fighting for their independence. Guess you're fine with them dying for nothing after surrendering. I mean it was only their country getting invaded. Their soldiers very much know why they're fighting.

A lot of Russian soldiers on the other hand probably have no clue.

Smokey, this is not 'Nam.

There were plenty of protests of the Russian invasion. On college campuses, invasion of Ukraine sparks protests, other acts of solidarity

It is more "nam" than you are capable of understanding. Walter Cronkite told the American people back in 1968 after visiting Vietnam that the war was a stalemate and the US couldn't win it. If Walter Cronkite could visit Ukraine today he would say the same thing that he did in 1968. I read yesterday that Ukraine will soon have F16s at their aerial disposal. I'm wondering how they plan on using them?? I'm guessing they will be used in CAS. I don't think that Ukraine wants to get into dogfights with Russian fighters.

[jhu72]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

.... it is called leadership! Joe makes fools of all the republiCON know nothings and right-wing commentators. Reminds me of the tale of Claudius (for those familiar with the history of the early Roman emperors).

[PizzaSnake]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

I find it quite interesting that his approach resulted in a pretty amazing run of legislative successes both straight party lines and bipartisan, but mostly bipartisan. Whether one likes every legislative success or not, every policy priority or not, that's the reality.

Of course, he takes all sorts on incoming from the left for not ramming through more of their most desired matters and all sorts of incoming from the right for getting anything done at all, and not what they most want...but the record is pretty darn impressive if one's objective about it.

As to 2024, it seems to me that there are a whole lot of moderate Republicans or former Republicans now Independents who appreciate that he's not a flaming narcissistic jerk nor some commie lefty and will be ok supporting him over Trump, albeit without great enthusiasm. The Haley vote is instructive. I 'live' in that cohort and hear that hugely more than I did going into 2020, though there were significant rumblings then as well. Just much more "definite no to Trump" now.

The question seems to be whether the Dems will find a way to get their left and especially young left to show up, putting aside whatever their major peeve is (ie Gaza or cost of housing or...) with enough sense of urgency over the stark contrast in alternatives. They need that cohort to vote for the old guy who isn't going to give them everything they want...nor even tell them he will...because the other guy would be disastrous for EVERY policy issue they care most about.

It feels like at least some of the GOP has realized that they need to contribute somehow to governing and national defense rather than get entirely pigeonholed as dysfunctional and actually pro-Putin. Johnson's conversion from 4 times voting against aid to Ukraine to now invoking Churchill's The Gathering Storm (all of Churchill's works are on our shelves) is a work of great persuasion...nothing like actually seeing heavy intelligence and national security assessments!

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

Both factions/parties had better wake up. Gen Z is pissed. Who can chase the brass ring when it has been pawned and the proceeds given as tax breaks for the .01%?

[jhu72]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

I find it quite interesting that his approach resulted in a pretty amazing run of legislative successes both straight party lines and bipartisan, but mostly bipartisan. Whether one likes every legislative success or not, every policy priority or not, that's the reality.

Of course, he takes all sorts on incoming from the left for not ramming through more of their most desired matters and all sorts of incoming from the right for getting anything done at all, and not what they most want...but the record is pretty darn impressive if one's objective about it.

As to 2024, it seems to me that there are a whole lot of moderate Republicans or former Republicans now Independents who appreciate that he's not a flaming narcissistic jerk nor some commie lefty and will be ok supporting him over Trump, albeit without great enthusiasm. The Haley vote is instructive. I 'live' in that cohort and hear that hugely more than I did going into 2020, though there were significant rumblings then as well. Just much more "definite no to Trump" now.

The question seems to be whether the Dems will find a way to get their left and especially young left to show up, putting aside whatever their major peeve is (ie Gaza or cost of housing or...) with enough sense of urgency over the stark contrast in alternatives. They need that cohort to vote for the old guy who isn't going to give them everything they want...nor even tell them he will...because the other guy would be disastrous for EVERY policy issue they care most about.

It feels like at least some of the GOP has realized that they need to contribute somehow to governing and national defense rather than get entirely pigeonholed as dysfunctional and actually pro-Putin. Johnson's conversion from 4 times voting against aid to Ukraine to now invoking Churchill's The Gathering Storm (all of Churchill's works are on our shelves) is a work of great persuasion...nothing like actually seeing heavy intelligence and national security assessments!

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

Both factions/parties had better wake up. Gen Z is pissed. Who can chase the brass ring when it has been pawned and the proceeds given as tax breaks for the .01%?

... it was ever thus. Let's hope Gen Z is more successful in translating their frustration into meaningful change than previous generations.

[cradleandshoot]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

I find it quite interesting that his approach resulted in a pretty amazing run of legislative successes both straight party lines and bipartisan, but mostly bipartisan. Whether one likes every legislative success or not, every policy priority or not, that's the reality.

Of course, he takes all sorts on incoming from the left for not ramming through more of their most desired matters and all sorts of incoming from the right for getting anything done at all, and not what they most want...but the record is pretty darn impressive if one's objective about it.

As to 2024, it seems to me that there are a whole lot of moderate Republicans or former Republicans now Independents who appreciate that he's not a flaming narcissistic jerk nor some commie lefty and will be ok supporting him over Trump, albeit without great enthusiasm. The Haley vote is instructive. I 'live' in that cohort and hear that hugely more than I did going into 2020, though there were significant rumblings then as well. Just much more "definite no to Trump" now.

The question seems to be whether the Dems will find a way to get their left and especially young left to show up, putting aside whatever their major peeve is (ie Gaza or cost of housing or...) with enough sense of urgency over the stark contrast in alternatives. They need that cohort to vote for the old guy who isn't going to give them everything they want...nor even tell them he will...because the other guy would be disastrous for EVERY policy issue they care most about.

It feels like at least some of the GOP has realized that they need to contribute somehow to governing and national defense rather than get entirely pigeonholed as dysfunctional and actually pro-Putin. Johnson's conversion from 4 times voting against aid to Ukraine to now invoking Churchill's The Gathering Storm (all of Churchill's works are on our shelves) is a work of great persuasion...nothing like actually seeing heavy intelligence and national security assessments!

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

Both factions/parties had better wake up. Gen Z is pissed. Who can chase the brass ring when it has been pawned and the proceeds given as tax breaks for the .01%?

... it was ever thus. Let's hope Gen Z is more successful in translating their frustration into meaningful change than previous generations.

They may need to get off their damn phones first.

[PizzaSnake]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

I find it quite interesting that his approach resulted in a pretty amazing run of legislative successes both straight party lines and bipartisan, but mostly bipartisan. Whether one likes every legislative success or not, every policy priority or not, that's the reality.

Of course, he takes all sorts on incoming from the left for not ramming through more of their most desired matters and all sorts of incoming from the right for getting anything done at all, and not what they most want...but the record is pretty darn impressive if one's objective about it.

As to 2024, it seems to me that there are a whole lot of moderate Republicans or former Republicans now Independents who appreciate that he's not a flaming narcissistic jerk nor some commie lefty and will be ok supporting him over Trump, albeit without great enthusiasm. The Haley vote is instructive. I 'live' in that cohort and hear that hugely more than I did going into 2020, though there were significant rumblings then as well. Just much more "definite no to Trump" now.

The question seems to be whether the Dems will find a way to get their left and especially young left to show up, putting aside whatever their major peeve is (ie Gaza or cost of housing or...) with enough sense of urgency over the stark contrast in alternatives. They need that cohort to vote for the old guy who isn't going to give them everything they want...nor even tell them he will...because the other guy would be disastrous for EVERY policy issue they care most about.

It feels like at least some of the GOP has realized that they need to contribute somehow to governing and national defense rather than get entirely pigeonholed as dysfunctional and actually pro-Putin. Johnson's conversion from 4 times voting against aid to Ukraine to now invoking Churchill's The Gathering Storm (all of Churchill's works are on our shelves) is a work of great persuasion...nothing like actually seeing heavy intelligence and national security assessments!

The decision to not have the White House demonize Johnson personally, despite him being an election denier and Ukraine funding opponent, is really interesting.

Both factions/parties had better wake up. Gen Z is pissed. Who can chase the brass ring when it has been pawned and the proceeds given as tax breaks for the .01%?

... it was ever thus. Let's hope Gen Z is more successful in translating their frustration into meaningful change than previous generations.

They may need to get off their damn phones first.

We all had better hope they stay distracted. Don’t slip that ring on…

[old salt]

I read yesterday that Ukraine will soon have F16s at their aerial disposal. I'm wondering how they plan on using them?? I'm guessing they will be used in CAS. I don't think that Ukraine wants to get into dogfights with Russian fighters.

I hope they base the F-16's in hardened hangars on a well defended airbase in western Ukraine & use them primarily to knock down drones & cruise missiles, to conserve them & keep them from getting shot down. For the same reason they're withdrawing their remaining Abrams tanks which have survived. Use their weaponry for defensive purposes. Only use their F-16's near the front lines to knock down Russian attack helos when Russia mounts a major offensive breakthrough of the current line of control. Stalemate buys Ukraine more time to be rearmed by the West (which is playing catch up in defense production) & more time to find more soldiers who are no longer volunteering -- which is their biggest limitation.

[PizzaSnake]

I read yesterday that Ukraine will soon have F16s at their aerial disposal. I'm wondering how they plan on using them?? I'm guessing they will be used in CAS. I don't think that Ukraine wants to get into dogfights with Russian fighters.

I hope they base the F-16's in hardened hangars on a well defended airbase in western Ukraine & use them primarily to knock down drones & cruise missiles, to conserve them & keep them from getting shot down. For the same reason they're withdrawing their remaining Abrams tanks which have survived. Use their weaponry for defensive purposes. Only use their F-16's near the front lines to knock down Russian attack helos when Russia mounts a major offensive breakthrough of the current line of control. Stalemate buys Ukraine more time to be rearmed by the West (which is playing catch up in defense production) & more time to find more soldiers who are no longer volunteering -- which is their biggest limitation.

Or hire some mercs. Maybe Erik Prince’ll volunteer his contracting services. Though I wouldn’t trust him an inch.

[cradleandshoot]

Interesting re background on Biden's instructions to staff on how to work with Johnson.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics ... index.html

It is a mistake to "sleep" on Joe's old school style of playing the political long game.

.... it is called leadership! Joe makes fools of all the republiCON know nothings and right-wing commentators. Reminds me of the tale of Claudius (for those familiar with the history of the early Roman emperors).

Leadership and DFJ don't belong in the same sentence. His leadership skills at the southern border are non existent. Unless you define leadership in this instance by taking irresponsible measures just to F""K trump? Then you can say he nailed it.