All Things Russia & Ukraine

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CU88a
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by CU88a »

r's support of Putin and anti-environmental thinking is on full display with House of Rep actions next week:

https://www.businessinsider.com/house-m ... aid-2024-4

The bills to be reviewed are the following:

Hands Off Our Home Appliances Act
Liberty in Laundry Act
Clothes Dryers Reliability Act
Refrigerator Freedom Act
Affordable Air Conditioning Act
Stop Unaffordable Dishwasher Standards Act

This is not from the Onion...


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1lx9X9
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cradleandshoot
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by cradleandshoot »

CU88a wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 1:11 pm r's support of Putin and anti-environmental thinking is on full display with House of Rep actions next week:

https://www.businessinsider.com/house-m ... aid-2024-4

The bills to be reviewed are the following:

Hands Off Our Home Appliances Act
Liberty in Laundry Act
Clothes Dryers Reliability Act
Refrigerator Freedom Act
Affordable Air Conditioning Act
Stop Unaffordable Dishwasher Standards Act

This is not from the Onion...


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-BB1lx9X9
LMFAO...Ukraine is being bombed back to the stone and your whining about the environment.... HERES YOUR SIGN... :roll: :roll: Why wasn't there an environmental impact study done before this war was allowed to happen??
I guess Cornell isn't graduating the smart people that they use to?? Have you requested a partial reimbursement on your tuition?? :D
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Seacoaster(1)
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

Did someone miss the point?
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cradleandshoot
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by cradleandshoot »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 2:58 pm Did someone miss the point?
I know exactly what the point was counselor. It's is a concept called expanding on the point made. Since you missed it counselor CU rambled on about republican anti environmental whatever in relation to Putin that was a tangent at best and that is being generous to say the least. CU brought the issue, maybe he can use his Ivy league education to explain whatever it was he meant to say. Since your legal eagle brain is very one dimensanal counselor let me simplify it for you. :roll: :roll: If anybody wants to gripe about Putin, Republicans and the environment going all to hell in a hand basket and ignoring the damage being done to the environment waging a war that your party is hot to trot for. I'm nowhere near as smart as you counselor. I do know that a war being waged on this scale and enthusiastically supported by YOUR team might be willing to make an exception for damage being done to the environment. :roll:

Any guess about the damage being done to the environment in Ukraine with the untold millions of landmines that have been sown? Probably not relevant to the topic but unarguably not good for the environment. I bet even Republicans and Democrats can agree on that.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 6:25 am You cannot "broker for peace" from a position of absolute weakness, where your biggest ally publicly withdraws support and one of its major political parties caves to the invaders. Vance is advocating that Ukraine cede massive territory and agree to an existence as a defenestrated vassal. Just stupid.
Do you think Ukraine's bargaining position can improve ? How & when ?
Short of US or NATO direct military intervention, how will that happen ?
The US, under Biden, has never been "all-in" other than rhetorically.
In our jingoist arrogance, we underestimated Russia's commitment & ignored their natural advantages.
It will be years before US & NATO defense industries gear up sufficiently to support Ukraine, while deterring other threats. Look at how understandably hesitant EUro NATO members are to donate their air defense systems which defend their cities from Russia's deep strike missile threat,
Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to hold on that long. Russia will press their near term advantage.
All the happy talk about Ukraine in NATO just bolsters Russia's commitment to win now.
It will be even harder to negotiate if Kharkiv falls.
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cradleandshoot
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by cradleandshoot »

old salt wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 5:22 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 6:25 am You cannot "broker for peace" from a position of absolute weakness, where your biggest ally publicly withdraws support and one of its major political parties caves to the invaders. Vance is advocating that Ukraine cede massive territory and agree to an existence as a defenestrated vassal. Just stupid.
Do you think Ukraine's bargaining position can improve ? How & when ?
Short of US or NATO direct military intervention, how will that happen ?
The US, under Biden, has never been "all-in" other than rhetorically.
In our jingoist arrogance, we underestimated Russia's commitment & ignored their natural advantages.
It will be years before US & NATO defense industries gear up sufficiently to support Ukraine, while deterring other threats. Look at how understandably hesitant EUro NATO members are to donate their air defense systems which defend their cities from Russia's deep strike missile threat,
Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to hold on that long. Russia will press their near term advantage.
All the happy talk about Ukraine in NATO just bolsters Russia's commitment to win now.
It will be even harder to negotiate if Kharkiv falls.
To all folks concerned take a peak at your world history books and look up the 100 years war. :roll:
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
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PizzaSnake
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

Russia's now a Chinese proxy? Interesting times.

"
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https://www.ft.com/content/ecd934b6-8a9 ... 11f771f9b1

The US has accused China of providing Russia with cruise missile and drone engines and machine tools for ballistic missiles, as it urges Europe to step up diplomatic and economic pressure on Beijing to stop the sales.

In disclosing previously classified intelligence, senior US officials said Chinese and Russian groups were working to jointly produce drones inside Russia. They said China had also supplied 90 per cent of chips imported by Russia last year which were being used to make tanks, missiles and aircraft.

The officials added China was also helping Russia to improve its satellite and other space-based capabilities to help prosecute its war in Ukraine, and Beijing was also providing satellite imagery.

Dennis Wilder, a former top China military analyst at the CIA, said the disclosure “far exceeds previous estimates and shows a concerted programme by China’s leaders” to help Moscow prosecute the war in Ukraine.

“Russia lost access to critical machine tools from Europe at the beginning of the conflict and China has moved to fill the gap,” said Wilder, now at Georgetown University."

https://www.ft.com/content/ecd934b6-8a9 ... 11f771f9b1
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youthathletics
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by youthathletics »

Crazy tech and video of missile shot down: https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1779315 ... a82I2GssRg
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youthathletics
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by youthathletics »

Pizza….thanks for that. I am quite certain this was known long ago, referring to your last post. The GPC is all about this very issue, between the US, Russia, and China. I suppose it will now be more prevalent as time goes by.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
PizzaSnake
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

youthathletics wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 10:26 pm Pizza….thanks for that. I am quite certain this was known long ago, referring to your last post. The GPC is all about this very issue, between the US, Russia, and China. I suppose it will now be more prevalent as time goes by.
The US had better win over Indonesia, and, at a minimum, keep India neutral.

The EU is looking increasingly irrelevant.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

old salt wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 5:22 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 6:25 am You cannot "broker for peace" from a position of absolute weakness, where your biggest ally publicly withdraws support and one of its major political parties caves to the invaders. Vance is advocating that Ukraine cede massive territory and agree to an existence as a defenestrated vassal. Just stupid.
Do you think Ukraine's bargaining position can improve ? How & when ?
Short of US or NATO direct military intervention, how will that happen ?
The US, under Biden, has never been "all-in" other than rhetorically.
In our jingoist arrogance, we underestimated Russia's commitment & ignored their natural advantages.
It will be years before US & NATO defense industries gear up sufficiently to support Ukraine, while deterring other threats. Look at how understandably hesitant EUro NATO members are to donate their air defense systems which defend their cities from Russia's deep strike missile threat,
Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to hold on that long. Russia will press their near term advantage.
All the happy talk about Ukraine in NATO just bolsters Russia's commitment to win now.
It will be even harder to negotiate if Kharkiv falls.
My point was that Vance's notion -- that a peace can be brokered which presumably retains Ukrainian sovereignty and territory -- seems foolhardy at best, a nice case of wishful thinking, or palaver that simply delivers Ukraine to the abyss of vassalage. To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
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cradleandshoot
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by cradleandshoot »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:11 am
old salt wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 5:22 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sat Apr 13, 2024 6:25 am You cannot "broker for peace" from a position of absolute weakness, where your biggest ally publicly withdraws support and one of its major political parties caves to the invaders. Vance is advocating that Ukraine cede massive territory and agree to an existence as a defenestrated vassal. Just stupid.
Do you think Ukraine's bargaining position can improve ? How & when ?
Short of US or NATO direct military intervention, how will that happen ?
The US, under Biden, has never been "all-in" other than rhetorically.
In our jingoist arrogance, we underestimated Russia's commitment & ignored their natural advantages.
It will be years before US & NATO defense industries gear up sufficiently to support Ukraine, while deterring other threats. Look at how understandably hesitant EUro NATO members are to donate their air defense systems which defend their cities from Russia's deep strike missile threat,
Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to hold on that long. Russia will press their near term advantage.
All the happy talk about Ukraine in NATO just bolsters Russia's commitment to win now.
It will be even harder to negotiate if Kharkiv falls.
My point was that Vance's notion -- that a peace can be brokered which presumably retains Ukrainian sovereignty and territory -- seems foolhardy at best, a nice case of wishful thinking, or palaver that simply delivers Ukraine to the abyss of vassalage. To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
You make good points. If nothing else the Ukrainian army is relentless and I believe will fight to the death of every soldier. I don't see them having fought and suffered through so much horror to accept a brokered peace. I'm reluctant to agree with US aide being held up by Republicans. The US has no choice but to help Ukraine fight this war. I'm not sure the US can provide enough assistance to help Ukraine win. I do know that Ukraine will fight as long as they have something to fight with. They are using WW1 era machine guns that are still as devastating today as they were a 100 years ago. The fact that this is a conflagration that appears to have no end in sight makes me worry about other countries getting dragged in to the fight.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:11 am To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
Air defense assistance is limited by our production capacity & how best to allocate that production, given our rapidly dwindling inventory & standing orders from other allies.
GOP rhetoric is irrelevant.

Ukraine says they need 26 more Patriot batteries. The entire US Army only has 50 Patriot batteries, which are our most heavily deployed units, spread all over the globe. Do you seriously expect the US Army to donate half of our air defense capability to UkraIne ?
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Defeatism is rampant among MAGA adherents.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:05 pm Defeatism is rampant among MAGA adherents.
Pull your head out & get a grip.
Look where your 2+ years of happy talk & name calling have brought us.
You can't be defeated if you're not in the game....yet.
A stupid war. We led the Ukrainians to the slaughter.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:18 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:11 am To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
Air defense assistance is limited by our production capacity & how best to allocate that production, given our rapidly dwindling inventory & standing orders from other allies.
GOP rhetoric is irrelevant.

Ukraine says they need 26 more Patriot batteries. The entire US Army only has 50 Patriot batteries, which are our most heavily deployed units, spread all over the globe. Do you seriously expect the US Army to donate half of our air defense capability to UkraIne ?
So the US industrial base has withered that much? Regardless of Ukraine, time to get the lead out and figure out how to make more, faster.

Evidently there were some, well, unfortunate choices made regarding core industrial capacity planning. But rather than affix the blame, how about we fix the problem. First up should be the EU, because they live right next to that sociopath Putin. And heaven help them if the bloated orange tick somehow slimes his way back into office. On a positive note for El Cheeto, maybe there will be a sharp uptick in immigrants (refugees) from nations he seems to favor. Who knows, maybe his next wife? I wonder where he'll bury Melania? Or will she be recalled by Putin and given a hero's welcome?
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by a fan »

PizzaSnake wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:31 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:18 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:11 am To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
Air defense assistance is limited by our production capacity & how best to allocate that production, given our rapidly dwindling inventory & standing orders from other allies.
GOP rhetoric is irrelevant.

Ukraine says they need 26 more Patriot batteries. The entire US Army only has 50 Patriot batteries, which are our most heavily deployed units, spread all over the globe. Do you seriously expect the US Army to donate half of our air defense capability to UkraIne ?
So the US industrial base has withered that much? Regardless of Ukraine, time to get the lead out and figure out how to make more, faster.

Evidently there were some, well, unfortunate choices made regarding core industrial capacity planning. But rather than affix the blame, how about we fix the problem
Our military isn't designed for "half ass(ng" it as we are now.

If we were operating as designed? Oh, about 12 months ago, every factory, bridge, road, communications hub etc. would have been turned into rubble via US air and missile support. Russia would have run out of "stuff" loooooooong ago.

Or, more likely, Putin would naver have the stones to invade a NATO Ukraine.

....another one of them "unintended consequences" of our military policy where we think it's a good idea to "arm some guy" that we're not allies with.

If we had handled this properly? Ukraine would have been made a part of NATO in 90's where Russia had an even crap*ier military than they have now, and couldn't do a thing to stop us.

Or? Would have left them the F alone, and let Putin do what he wants. These half measures ALWAYS have problems like this one. Every time.

And yet we keep doing it, and feigning surprise that "arming some guy" has massive and continual downsides.

Oh well, Maybe next time we'll figure this out. Naaaaah. Prolly not.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by old salt »

PizzaSnake wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:31 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:18 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:11 am To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
Air defense assistance is limited by our production capacity & how best to allocate that production, given our rapidly dwindling inventory & standing orders from other allies.
GOP rhetoric is irrelevant.

Ukraine says they need 26 more Patriot batteries. The entire US Army only has 50 Patriot batteries, which are our most heavily deployed units, spread all over the globe. Do you seriously expect the US Army to donate half of our air defense capability to UkraIne ?
So the US industrial base has withered that much? Regardless of Ukraine, time to get the lead out and figure out how to make more, faster.

Evidently there were some, well, unfortunate choices made regarding core industrial capacity planning. But rather than affix the blame, how about we fix the problem. First up should be the EU, because they live right next to that sociopath Putin. And heaven help them if the bloated orange tick somehow slimes his way back into office. On a positive note for El Cheeto, maybe there will be a sharp uptick in immigrants (refugees) from nations he seems to favor. Who knows, maybe his next wife? I wonder where he'll bury Melania? Or will she be recalled by Putin and given a hero's welcome?
The US defense industrial base is driven by contracted demand.
Raytheon produces 12 Patriot batteries/yr. There's a waiting list of foreign military sales customers.
The Army is planning on gradually phasing out the Patriot by integrating it into a new system.
The EU is way behind the US & has not integrated their air defense assets into a combined network.
The current demand for air defense systems in multiple theaters was obviously not anticipated (& funded).
J.D. Vance was right. The supply vs demand math does not add up.
The cost to replenish the missiles expended in defending Israel for just one night will be staggering

I've seen articles about efforts underway to increase production of replacement missiles,
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/0 ... nse%20News.
but haven't found anything indicating an increase in the rate of production of Patriot batteries. That means that any more Patriot batteries for Ukraine are going to have to be taken out of hide by the US & the rest of NATO. With the demand for Patriots to protect US bases & forces in the ME & WPac, that's a big ask of the US.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/0 ... sh-future/
“Patriot has prove[d] to be a very reliable system,” said Ben Hodges, a retired three-star general who commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “The Ukrainians learned very quickly how to operate it, and even more impressively they learned very quickly how to employ it to great effect.”
“Nations are much more alive to the [air and missile defense] threat,” he added.
Hodges, however, said there remains just one U.S. Patriot battalion committed to Europe.
“I have seen and heard a lot more conversation about” air and missile defense integration among allies and partners in Europe, he noted, “but I have not seen marked increases in capabilities, nor have I seen a large-scale, theaterwide, joint, multinational air [and] missile defense exercise that presents the same sort of challenge a Russian attack would bring.”
“None of us has enough capacity to defend much of what must be protected. So integration and regional approaches are necessary,” Hodges added.

In 2018, Lockheed’s annual rate of building those missiles was 350. The company planned to increase that to 500 annually. But Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has put new pressure on this effort, and the U.S. Army has provided funding to get Lockheed to 550 missiles per year. In December, the firm said it reached a rate of 500 per year.

Many of the expansion efforts by Lockheed and its suppliers preceded government funding. The companies are banking on both an increase in U.S. government spending in the coming years as well as a rise in orders from international customers.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:16 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:05 pm Defeatism is rampant among MAGA adherents.
Pull your head out & get a grip.
Look where your 2+ years of happy talk & name calling have brought us.
You can't be defeated if you're not in the game....yet.
A stupid war. We led the Ukrainians to the slaughter.
Yes, defeatism has been consistently strong. On numerous topics.

With regard to Ukraine specifically, very defeatist, always the negative never the positive. Always woe is me, Ukraine with the aid of the West can’t possibly withstand and pushback Russia (and why would we even want to stop Russian expansion?). We need to spend massive amounts of money on our military of course, but why would we care about a white Christian authoritarian kleptocracy expanding toward our treaty allies? Those Euroburghers are a bunch of socialists not really our allies.

And those Ukrainians are really a bunch of corrupt Nazis secretly allied with Democrats against our Leader.

So, let’s go back on our promises to support Ukraine’s defense of its sovereignty and early stage democracy against a murderous much larger and heavily armed neighbor.

MAGA
PizzaSnake
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by PizzaSnake »

old salt wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2024 4:46 am
PizzaSnake wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 11:31 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 10:18 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 9:11 am To "broker" a peace that doesn't reward the Russian attack on another sovereign, and functionally incentivize further revanchist Russian adventures in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and access to the Baltic) will only happen if the United States and other NATO members are committed, without equivocation, to supporting Ukraine. The GOP has already done its level best to ensure that leverage in any such discussion has been weakened or worse.

I think Ukraine's leverage for a brokered peace can be improved "short of US or NATO direct military intervention" -- at least in the sense of personnel on the ground. Chances for a peace that ameliorates the consequences I have described can happen with air defense assistance from the West. But our dithering -- which is to say, the GOP's commitment to toadying to Trump -- has made all of this so much more difficult. Vance and others helped to create the very dire situation from which they now shout "well, we should give up and pave some roads and rebuild some bridges here."
Air defense assistance is limited by our production capacity & how best to allocate that production, given our rapidly dwindling inventory & standing orders from other allies.
GOP rhetoric is irrelevant.

Ukraine says they need 26 more Patriot batteries. The entire US Army only has 50 Patriot batteries, which are our most heavily deployed units, spread all over the globe. Do you seriously expect the US Army to donate half of our air defense capability to UkraIne ?
So the US industrial base has withered that much? Regardless of Ukraine, time to get the lead out and figure out how to make more, faster.

Evidently there were some, well, unfortunate choices made regarding core industrial capacity planning. But rather than affix the blame, how about we fix the problem. First up should be the EU, because they live right next to that sociopath Putin. And heaven help them if the bloated orange tick somehow slimes his way back into office. On a positive note for El Cheeto, maybe there will be a sharp uptick in immigrants (refugees) from nations he seems to favor. Who knows, maybe his next wife? I wonder where he'll bury Melania? Or will she be recalled by Putin and given a hero's welcome?
The US defense industrial base is driven by contracted demand.
Raytheon produces 12 Patriot batteries/yr. There's a waiting list of foreign military sales customers.
The Army is planning on gradually phasing out the Patriot by integrating it into a new system.
The EU is way behind the US & has not integrated their air defense assets into a combined network.
The current demand for air defense systems in multiple theaters was obviously not anticipated (& funded).
J.D. Vance was right. The supply vs demand math does not add up.
The cost to replenish the missiles expended in defending Israel for just one night will be staggering

I've seen articles about efforts underway to increase production of replacement missiles,
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/0 ... nse%20News.
but haven't found anything indicating an increase in the rate of production of Patriot batteries. That means that any more Patriot batteries for Ukraine are going to have to be taken out of hide by the US & the rest of NATO. With the demand for Patriots to protect US bases & forces in the ME & WPac, that's a big ask of the US.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/0 ... sh-future/
“Patriot has prove[d] to be a very reliable system,” said Ben Hodges, a retired three-star general who commanded U.S. Army forces in Europe following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. “The Ukrainians learned very quickly how to operate it, and even more impressively they learned very quickly how to employ it to great effect.”
“Nations are much more alive to the [air and missile defense] threat,” he added.
Hodges, however, said there remains just one U.S. Patriot battalion committed to Europe.
“I have seen and heard a lot more conversation about” air and missile defense integration among allies and partners in Europe, he noted, “but I have not seen marked increases in capabilities, nor have I seen a large-scale, theaterwide, joint, multinational air [and] missile defense exercise that presents the same sort of challenge a Russian attack would bring.”
“None of us has enough capacity to defend much of what must be protected. So integration and regional approaches are necessary,” Hodges added.

In 2018, Lockheed’s annual rate of building those missiles was 350. The company planned to increase that to 500 annually. But Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has put new pressure on this effort, and the U.S. Army has provided funding to get Lockheed to 550 missiles per year. In December, the firm said it reached a rate of 500 per year.

Many of the expansion efforts by Lockheed and its suppliers preceded government funding. The companies are banking on both an increase in U.S. government spending in the coming years as well as a rise in orders from international customers.
The MIC has gotten a little out of line. They exist to fulfill our materiel needs. Period. This crazy idea that their capitalist profit incentive trumps national interest is insane and needs to be corrected. Any influence peddling by former military officers is a crime and needs to punished severely. Tired of this nonsense.

https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/s ... A/part-700

"Rated orders are identified by a priority rating and a program identification symbol. Rated orders take precedence over all unrated orders as necessary to meet required delivery dates. Among rated orders, DX rated orders take precedence over DO rated orders. Program identification symbols indicate which approved program is attributed to the rated order.

(b) Persons receiving rated orders must give them preferential treatment as required by this part.

(c) All rated orders must be scheduled to the extent possible to ensure delivery by the required delivery date.

(d) Persons who receive rated orders must in turn place rated orders with their suppliers for the items they need to fill the orders. This provision ensures that suppliers will give priority treatment to rated orders from contractor to subcontractor to suppliers throughout the procurement chain.

(e) Persons may place a priority rating on orders only when they are in receipt of a rated order, have been explicitly authorized to do so by the Department of Commerce or a Delegate Agency, or are otherwise permitted to do so by this part."

Shut the fcuk up and get to work. Now.

Iran and company aren't stupid. They are going to "bleed" out our current stockpile of armaments.

Oh, and however designed the Mk 41 vertical launch system (VLS) was an idiot.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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