PLL 2024

[Lax Mouse]

I like Shellenberger a lot as #1 for the Outlaws. He's a player you can build your offense around - a facilitator and a scorer that makes the whole offense better. I think O'Neill is a great player. I think he's going to score a lot of points. But do I think his presence is going to elevate everyone around him? I have questions about that based on this season at Duke.

The Outlaws have holes on their roster everywhere. I'd go as far as to say that they don't really have an offense at all right now, their faceoff situation needs help, and they desperately need some quality pole play at LSM and youth at defense with the looming retirement of Manley and Bernhardt in the next year or so.

In this mock, I have them ending up with O'Neill, Brandau, Dobson, and Zawada. Paired with Wisnauskas and Handley, that's quite an imposing group physically.

The problem is, you don't know what's going to happen after pick number #1. If I knew I could get all those players, and build a whole offense, I'd feel comfortable going with O'Neill at #1. But Soudan can't know, and if I were him, I'd take Shellenberger.

However, my general rule of thumb with coach Soudan (at least the last few seasons) is that if he can do something that's less than optimal, he will. So for that reason, I'm keeping O'Neill as the first pick. I think, based on the evidence of his previous decisions, that he's likely to go in that direction. But I do agree that Shellenberger would make more sense.

Regarding Entenmann, I'd be relatively surprised if he's still available at #13. The Atlas moved up to #5 knowing that they were going to get one of the top two offensive players at #2. They've got someone in mind on the defensive end or in goal, and they do need help in net. Either Troutner or Porter could end up being quality starters, but Entenmann is as close to a sure thing you can get. Most teams seem pretty set at the goalie position, but Atlas have 3 picks before the Woods. Even if they don't take him at #5, they'll grab him before the Redwoods have a pick (unless they trade of course). But, like Soudan, Pressler has made an abundance of questionable personnel decisions.

[lorin]

I like Shellenberger a lot as #1 for the Outlaws. He's a player you can build your offense around - a facilitator and a scorer that makes the whole offense better. I think O'Neill is a great player. I think he's going to score a lot of points. But do I think his presence is going to elevate everyone around him? I have questions about that based on this season at Duke.

The Outlaws have holes on their roster everywhere. I'd go as far as to say that they don't really have an offense at all right now, their faceoff situation needs help, and they desperately need some quality pole play at LSM and youth at defense with the looming retirement of Manley and Bernhardt in the next year or so.

In this mock, I have them ending up with O'Neill, Brandau, Dobson, and Zawada. Paired with Wisnauskas and Handley, that's quite an imposing group physically.

The problem is, you don't know what's going to happen after pick number #1. If I knew I could get all those players, and build a whole offense, I'd feel comfortable going with O'Neill at #1. But Soudan can't know, and if I were him, I'd take Shellenberger.

However, my general rule of thumb with coach Soudan (at least the last few seasons) is that if he can do something that's less than optimal, he will. So for that reason, I'm keeping O'Neill as the first pick. I think, based on the evidence of his previous decisions, that he's likely to go in that direction. But I do agree that Shellenberger would make more sense.

Regarding Entenmann, I'd be relatively surprised if he's still available at #13. The Atlas moved up to #5 knowing that they were going to get one of the top two offensive players at #2. They've got someone in mind on the defensive end or in goal, and they do need help in net. Either Troutner or Porter could end up being quality starters, but Entenmann is as close to a sure thing you can get. Most teams seem pretty set at the goalie position, but Atlas have 3 picks before the Woods. Even if they don't take him at #5, they'll grab him before the Redwoods have a pick (unless they trade of course). But, like Soudan, Pressler has made an abundance of questionable personnel decisions.

No way Soudan passes on O'Neil, he will put him on mid field with Sam. Or maybe trade Wiz on draft day.

[DeepPocket]

I like Shellenberger a lot as #1 for the Outlaws.

No way Soudan passes on O'Neil, he will put him on mid field with Sam. Or maybe trade Wiz on draft day.

+1. O’Neill goes first.

[stupefied]

Talking Outlaws. Sudan really can't go wrong with either Oneill or Shellenberger , two top players but with different strengths , Oneill makes more sense for Outlaws if Winauskaus moved otherwise Shellenberger or even Kavanaugh would seem to be better fits. Shellenberger be my guess absent a Win trade with Kav the darkhorse, his gritty label has tendency imo to discount actual abilities , watching him repeatedly take it to Brower from up top showed another dimension and Sudan could really value the obvious intangibles. Entenman at 5 might be considered high for a goalie but every sport has drafts where teams dont risk losing target however slotted .Sudan is likely assessing need for goalies of other teams as he has pick #11

[DeepPocket]

Talking Outlaws. Sudan really can't go wrong with either Oneill or Shellenberger , two top players but with different strengths , Oneill makes more sense for Outlaws if Winauskaus moved otherwise Shellenberger or even Kavanaugh would seem to be better fits. Shellenberger be my guess absent a Win trade with Kav the darkhorse, his gritty label has tendency imo to discount actual abilities , watching him repeatedly take it to Brower from up top showed another dimension and Sudan could really value the obvious intangibles. Entenman at 5 might be considered high for a goalie but every sport has drafts where teams dont risk losing target however slotted .Sudan is likely assessing need for goalies of other teams as he has pick #11

Yea, there might be better “fits,” but when a draft has a generational talent, that’s what you take. Needs be damned. I see O’Niell as a lock at #1 overall.

Entenman certainly makes things interesting after O’Neill, because of how impactful the goalie position is. That is where you’ll likely see teams start looking into “fits” and “needs.” I still think Shellenberger goes #2. It will come down to a team that knows or believes that their current starting goalie won’t be long for the league, and then they’ll splash for Entenman.

[Lax Mouse]

Speaking of the Outlaws . . . here's my team preview heading into the season and how it relates to my mock draft. We'll see if I can keep up this for the other teams

The Outlaws are coming off a truly atrocious season in which they managed a single win (by a goal in the season opener). Reeling off nine straight losses to close the year, the problems lay primarily with the offense. While 119 scores against positioned them in the middle of the pack, an overall goal difference of -38 was driven by a paltry 81 goals on the year. Averaging fewer than 10 goals a game, they scored 30 fewer goals than the next closest team (a 7-3 Redwoods squad). A deeper dive into the offensive stats don’t get much better - the team managed league lows in shots at 354 (nearly 50 shots lower than the next lowest team), shots on goal with 220, assists with 42 (nearly half of the league leading Cannons), 2-pt shots, and managed just two 2-pt goals on the season. They were the only team with a shooting percentage below 25%, and they had a 2-pt shooting percentage below 5%. While turnover numbers were middle of the pack, numbers of caused turnovers and save percentage were in the bottom half of the league. FO stats are a bit misleading after the journey that several teams went on last year, but another concerning trend for the Outlaws was a league low number of ground balls won - over 100 fewer across the season than the league leading Atlas.

The failures on the offensive end can be attributed to regressive years from both Logan Wisnauskas and Brendan Nichtern (in limited appearances due to military commitments). However, the issues went far beyond those two. A lack of competitive personnel and schematic adjustments doomed the offense to a season that was not imaginative, assertive, complementary, and ultimately that was greatly ineffective. Coach Soudan failed to make timely personnel adjustments, and while players like Cross Ferrera, Cole Williams, Dylan Molloy (while on the team) and Jack Myers very well may not have held all the answers, the refusal to inject any different players into the lineup early and consistently proved costly. The players on the field, as a unit, certainly were not the answer, and were given too much rope that could have been used to develop other options.

With a league leading 5 picks in the upcoming draft, 3 picks in the first 11 selections, and the first overall pick along with a slate of off-season departures, Coach Soudan certainly has the opportunity to remake this team. The current roster does not inspire confidence now or for the future. The offensive personnel lack depth and proven consistent production. Of the current roster, only Sam Handley and Logan Wisnauskas feel like they’d be able to compete for starting offensive spots on other teams. Justin Anderson has the skillset and production for a consistent 2nd line midfielder in the league, but it seems unlikely that he’d be able to start for any other team. Cross Ferrara showed flashes of both brilliance and concerns throughout his first year. He could have benefitted from more runs, and the lack thereof makes predicting his future difficult. The same can be said for Jack Myers - just with even fewer runs and moments to get a clear sense of his availability at this level. Dylan Gergar is an unknown at the pro-level and Connor Desimone has proven to be a reliable practice squad/back-up option. Defensively, they seem set with Giles-Harris, Manley, and Bernhardt. However, both Manley and Bernhardt are on one-year contracts. The team does not have much depth behind them. Bringing in another goalie to spur some competition would be a good idea, and the SSDM group is tough and proven with Terefenko, Haus, Smith, and Messenger. An injury to Messenger might necessitate bringing in another option. The LSM group overall is underwhelming. While Salama has been relatively impressive, Hettinger still is mostly unproven at the pro-level and Grill, despite his motor, lacks the size to be fully effective against many top midfielders.

Going into this draft, the Outlaws primary goal should be adding multiple starting quality offensive players. Depth in the defensive midfield and with poles would be a plus, but the immediate concern is offense. With so many holes, some needs will have to be pushed a year down the road. O’Neill is the consensus number one pick, and while some debate exists regarding Shellenberger being a better “fit” for a rebuilding offense, O’Neill’s ceiling and production at the international level can’t be ignored. The Outlaws have enough picks to complement O’Neill’s skillset with other talented players, and this class of offensive draft available players is deep. In my first mock draft, I have the Outlaws grabbing O’Neill, Brandau, Dobson, and Zawada in addition to adding youth and depth at pole with Boston U.’s Roy Meyer. There are a lot of unknowns in this draft after pick number two. A run on the quality defensive players could push first round offensive talent down the order. Goalies and FO specialists may or may not have a run depending on if and when a team makes a move. Ultimately, I feel like this mock would be a dream for the Outlaws. Brandau would be a steal at #9 as would Dobson at #11. I have Knobloch as the first midfielder off the board to the Cannons - a pairing that schematically and culturally makes a lot of sense to me. This allows Dobson to slide as teams claw for the top-end defenders. Adding Zawada late, a quarterback and dodger who already has familiarity with O’Neill, would also be quite the grab. Teams will have their pick of offensive players late in this draft, and Zawada falls perfectly into the Outlaws’ lap in my first mock. That influx of talent could lead to a top six of O’Niell, Brandau, Zawada, Wisnauskas, Dobson, and Handley - a young group with a lot of firepower. Wisnauskas would likely come out of the box, at least by the end of the season, and the idea of any two of this group on a short stick feels exciting for Coach Soudan. The passing ability of Zawada and Brandau should bring this offense together. I’d expect Soudan to look for some SSDM/Defensive depth through free agency. Peter Dearth should be on the top of every coach’s list who needs a defensive midfielder. In this mock, there’s no crazy run on goalie or at FO. Soudan should be able to bring in someone undrafted (Knote, Ierlan, McNaney) to compete in net and similarly at FO (Burke, Weirman, Kohn, or Stathakis). Connor Farrel is not currently listed on the roster.

I was highly critical of Soudan a season ago, but he has a fresh slate and the resources to make it work. This season should be telling about his future in the league.

[lorin]

Speaking of the Outlaws . . . here's my team preview heading into the season and how it relates to my mock draft. We'll see if I can keep up this for the other teams

The Outlaws are coming off a truly atrocious season in which they managed a single win (by a goal in the season opener). Reeling off nine straight losses to close the year, the problems lay primarily with the offense. While 119 scores against positioned them in the middle of the pack, an overall goal difference of -38 was driven by a paltry 81 goals on the year. Averaging fewer than 10 goals a game, they scored 30 fewer goals than the next closest team (a 7-3 Redwoods squad). A deeper dive into the offensive stats don’t get much better - the team managed league lows in shots at 354 (nearly 50 shots lower than the next lowest team), shots on goal with 220, assists with 42 (nearly half of the league leading Cannons), 2-pt shots, and managed just two 2-pt goals on the season. They were the only team with a shooting percentage below 25%, and they had a 2-pt shooting percentage below 5%. While turnover numbers were middle of the pack, numbers of caused turnovers and save percentage were in the bottom half of the league. FO stats are a bit misleading after the journey that several teams went on last year, but another concerning trend for the Outlaws was a league low number of ground balls won - over 100 fewer across the season than the league leading Atlas.

The failures on the offensive end can be attributed to regressive years from both Logan Wisnauskas and Brendan Nichtern (in limited appearances due to military commitments). However, the issues went far beyond those two. A lack of competitive personnel and schematic adjustments doomed the offense to a season that was not imaginative, assertive, complementary, and ultimately that was greatly ineffective. Coach Soudan failed to make timely personnel adjustments, and while players like Cross Ferrera, Cole Williams, Dylan Molloy (while on the team) and Jack Myers very well may not have held all the answers, the refusal to inject any different players into the lineup early and consistently proved costly. The players on the field, as a unit, certainly were not the answer, and were given too much rope that could have been used to develop other options.

With a league leading 5 picks in the upcoming draft, 3 picks in the first 11 selections, and the first overall pick along with a slate of off-season departures, Coach Soudan certainly has the opportunity to remake this team. The current roster does not inspire confidence now or for the future. The offensive personnel lack depth and proven consistent production. Of the current roster, only Sam Handley and Logan Wisnauskas feel like they’d be able to compete for starting offensive spots on other teams. Justin Anderson has the skillset and production for a consistent 2nd line midfielder in the league, but it seems unlikely that he’d be able to start for any other team. Cross Ferrara showed flashes of both brilliance and concerns throughout his first year. He could have benefitted from more runs, and the lack thereof makes predicting his future difficult. The same can be said for Jack Myers - just with even fewer runs and moments to get a clear sense of his availability at this level. Dylan Gergar is an unknown at the pro-level and Connor Desimone has proven to be a reliable practice squad/back-up option. Defensively, they seem set with Giles-Harris, Manley, and Bernhardt. However, both Manley and Bernhardt are on one-year contracts. The team does not have much depth behind them. Bringing in another goalie to spur some competition would be a good idea, and the SSDM group is tough and proven with Terefenko, Haus, Smith, and Messenger. An injury to Messenger might necessitate bringing in another option. The LSM group overall is underwhelming. While Salama has been relatively impressive, Hettinger still is mostly unproven at the pro-level and Grill, despite his motor, lacks the size to be fully effective against many top midfielders.

Going into this draft, the Outlaws primary goal should be adding multiple starting quality offensive players. Depth in the defensive midfield and with poles would be a plus, but the immediate concern is offense. With so many holes, some needs will have to be pushed a year down the road. O’Neill is the consensus number one pick, and while some debate exists regarding Shellenberger being a better “fit” for a rebuilding offense, O’Neill’s ceiling and production at the international level can’t be ignored. The Outlaws have enough picks to complement O’Neill’s skillset with other talented players, and this class of offensive draft available players is deep. In my first mock draft, I have the Outlaws grabbing O’Neill, Brandau, Dobson, and Zawada in addition to adding youth and depth at pole with Boston U.’s Roy Meyer. There are a lot of unknowns in this draft after pick number two. A run on the quality defensive players could push first round offensive talent down the order. Goalies and FO specialists may or may not have a run depending on if and when a team makes a move. Ultimately, I feel like this mock would be a dream for the Outlaws. Brandau would be a steal at #9 as would Dobson at #11. I have Knobloch as the first midfielder off the board to the Cannons - a pairing that schematically and culturally makes a lot of sense to me. This allows Dobson to slide as teams claw for the top-end defenders. Adding Zawada late, a quarterback and dodger who already has familiarity with O’Neill, would also be quite the grab. Teams will have their pick of offensive players late in this draft, and Zawada falls perfectly into the Outlaws’ lap in my first mock. That influx of talent could lead to a top six of O’Niell, Brandau, Zawada, Wisnauskas, Dobson, and Handley - a young group with a lot of firepower. Wisnauskas would likely come out of the box, at least by the end of the season, and the idea of any two of this group on a short stick feels exciting for Coach Soudan. The passing ability of Zawada and Brandau should bring this offense together. I’d expect Soudan to look for some SSDM/Defensive depth through free agency. Peter Dearth should be on the top of every coach’s list who needs a defensive midfielder. In this mock, there’s no crazy run on goalie or at FO. Soudan should be able to bring in someone undrafted (Knote, Ierlan, McNaney) to compete in net and similarly at FO (Burke, Weirman, Kohn, or Stathakis). Connor Farrel is not currently listed on the roster.

I was highly critical of Soudan a season ago, but he has a fresh slate and the resources to make it work. This season should be telling about his future in the league.

lol u are clueless

[stupefied]

Thank you Lax Mouse . Thoroughly enjoy your posts and write-ups

Glad the pro league exists , discussion can only help grow interest, hope you, Deep Pocket, Iorin and others continue to post

Drafts have twists and turns , still trying to figure out what my Giants will do on 4/25 . My initial lax draft thoughts differ slightly but good fuel for thought

As far as Oneill , fully understand DP take , BO' has been a dominant force at every level but I'm anticipating his physical edge to diminish some at next stage, just not sure to what affect . Admit my thinking could be faulty as same applied to Nolting and his game grew in pros is Soudan? many were surprised by Winauskaus going first over Gray. He must have a lean but likely still open to change as it is with most gm's.

[DeepPocket]

Indeed. Enjoyed reading your opinions LaxMouse. Let’s keep it going.

Personally , I’m very pleased to see the NLL playoffs end before the PLL season. This no longer forces playoff NLL players to choose, and is a rather large step as this was a big issue for teams like the chaos that saw a lot of crossover players in the NLL playoffs last year.

[Lax Mouse]

Thanks stupefied and DeepPocket - it's nice to have somewhere to discuss!

Dan Arestia's got his first mock draft out over on SticksIn: https://www.sticksinlacrosse.com/post/p ... draft-2024

Some notes:

- He's going with Shellenberger at #1 to the Outlaws. This has been and will continue to be one of the big debates heading into the draft. The logic makes a lot of sense to me. Both he and O'Neill are great players. I have a tough time believing Soudan will make a logical move like this. Dan brings up some good points about how taking Shellenberger at #1 will negatively impact other teams' draft strategies as well.
- He's also got Knobloch off the board to the Cannons at #6 instead of Dobson. Stylistically and culturally, this fit just makes so much sense to me.
- He's got a FO player (Naso) going in round two to the Cannons, whereas I didn't have a team looking for the FO until Round 4. He's got Entenmann slipping to Round 2 (still with the Atlas). If the order stays put, I really don't see Entenmann falling to the Redwoods at #13 as suggested elsewhere.

Ultimately, the biggest decision that will influence how this draft plays out to me isn't whether it's O'Neill or Shellenberger at #1 or #2, it's how quickly teams move to scoop up the fewer number of quality non-offensive players. In Dan's mock, there isn't too much of a rush, although I think he tweeted the other day that (while he didn't mock it) Zapitello to the Whips at #3 would be a good move. I tend to agree.

[DeepPocket]

I enjoyed Arestia’s write up as well. A lot of thought was put into it, and it’s nice that people are doing that for this league. And while I don’t agree with all his picks, that’s just it, they’re his predictions.

Me, I see O’Neill going 1st. I don’t see the Waterdogs going SSDM in round 1, not in this draft, not with their stable of SSDMs that they currently have. The FO position is a really tough read. How will the rules pan out? Is it worth potentially “wasting” a pick?

Great discussions, and I’m just happy they’re being had around the PLL.