Connecticut 2023

[pcowlax]

Not high school related but was down at CONNY tourney for awhile this morning in Madison. 75 teams, perfect weather, salt air off the ocean, grills going. Good times. The game is in a good place in the state despite the at times malign club influence.

At Hammonassett S.P. I assume? This was the ultimate site for the Daniel Hand HS Jamboree for many years.

Yup. Really miss the Jamboree, so much fun having great teams from 4 or 5 states come to me!

[fritz44]

Good set of games. NC has really come on strong near the end of the season when fully healthy. Not really sure what to make of their loss to Upper Arlington, difficult to gauge how good they are.

It was incredible watching Wilton almost turd the bed in the exact same fashion they did against Darien in the regular season matchup. But they were able to recover.

Should be a good final.

[FC_YAK]

Agreed. Good set of games yesterday.

NC is the favorite IMO, they handled Wilton fairly easily in their game a few weeks ago. The two-headed face-off monster got the best of Liston that day and they vastly outplayed Wilton at the goalie position. IMO, the Wilton goalie has been up and down all year, he had a down game against NC as they were able to score on outside shots from all over. Wilton made it close late but the game was never in doubt.

What NC was able to do against Staples was impressive, they thoroughly outplayed them in the second half. As stated above, the faceoff duo NC trots out there is very impressive. They seem to wear teams down and both are capable of pushing and creating breaks.

Wilton v Darien was a carbon copy of the first game only Wilton able to turn the tables and get the W this time. I was impressed with the Wilton defense especially on Pokorny. He was never able to get anything going and you could see he was frustrated. They slid early to him and while he made some great passes, for him not to notch a goal is a victory for any team playing Darien. Wilton had 2x the number of shots on goal that Darien had and they showed great patience. Darien had their run in the 4th (seems like they always do) but Wilton was able to weather the storm. They have turned into an interesting team as they seem to have multiple dodgers that can beat you.

I still the NC wins but I hope it's a better game than the first time these two met.

[random observer]

I thought Darien looked dreadful in that game; they threw the ball away a ton, and frankly just never seemed to value possession (a cardinal sin in a game where they weren't winning face-offs). Wilton really should have put them away much more easily, and would have if not for the play of Hagen in net. I know the Wave are young this year, but I think the Darien aura is fully off the bloom at this point; they are still probably deeper and more talented than Wilton but looked second best in almost every regard.

Staples looked good out of the gates but have come crashing down in the back half of the season. New Canaan has quietly put together a solid year despite playing without their top two poles for much of the season. Crowell is incredibly underrated.

Elsewhere, Cheshire knocked off Fairfield Prep, who has been up and down as of late. Lots of uneven performances from the top teams, and it's anyone's guess as to who will peak in the state playoffs.

[Kismet]

State tournament brackets will be released this morning. Seeding, for the first time, by Lax Numbers rating and not W-L percentage.
You can actually get a preview of the brackets by looking at LN this morning

[Fullstop]

Huge win for Wilton tonight being crowned FCIAC Champs for the first time since ‘99. Goalie and defense played outstanding. NC is a good team, but had trouble with some sloppy passing and didn’t win many ground balls (although their ride caused a number of turnovers). The Wilton goalie stuffed them on the doorstep multiple times too. Face offs seemed pretty evenly split (but I don’t know the stat line).

It’s certainly been the year of parity with Cheshire beating Prep in the SCC and Wilton beating bot Darien and NC to win the FCIAC. Cheshire/Wilton avenging regular season losses. State tournament should be fun to watch

[FC_YAK]

Incredible game from Wilton. They beat NC in every meaningful way. Faceoffs were probably even but Wilton had more shots, more ground balls, more caused turnovers and definitely owned time of possession. Dominant performance.

So, my only question is why would seeding for state tourney come out before the league tournaments are over????

Wilton is a 5 seed? After winning the FCIAC and is the 4th ranked FCIAC team????? They may have to play at NC in the second round…

Zero sense.

[Fullstop]

Incredible game from Wilton. They beat NC in every meaningful way. Faceoffs were probably even but Wilton had more shots, more ground balls, more caused turnovers and definitely owned time of possession. Dominant performance.

So, my only question is why would seeding for state tourney come out before the league tournaments are over????

Wilton is a 5 seed? After winning the FCIAC and is the 4th ranked FCIAC team????? They may have to play at NC in the second round…

Zero sense.

I agree, but there were always going to be bumps in the road when going to a new system. They beat both Darien and NC in the FCIACs (and Staples in the regular season), but are ranked below them in states. In order to be state champion you have to end your season with a “W” and beat a few of the best teams in the tourney. Just have to go out and prove it that you’re the best

[fritz44]

Good win for Wilton and surprisingly very good goaltending play. For NC you have to be a little frustrated with their shooting. I give Blankenship a lot of credit but there were a few wide open chances for NC right on the crease where they just flung the ball on net without so much as a fake. The rematch between NC & Wilton on June 3rd, baring any monumental upsets could be a trap game for Wilton. I would expect NC to spend a lot more time focusing on shot placement and I assume they didn't spend as much time scouting the Wilton goalie this previous game as they should have. NCs d-men actually did very good against Wilton's attack. Until the second half Wilton was getting most of their shots from transition opportunities and not much from settled offense. Once they began to use a lot more picks and off-ball movement around the crease things began to open up for their midfielders, but all 3 of their attack men struggled to get separation from NCs D-men. I would expect Wilton to come out with this offense from the start in their rematch and wouldn't be surprised to see NC put a pole on both Rath brothers the way Darien did. I'd still favor Wilton in the rematch but if Wilton has a goaltending performance similar to what they had against Darien or some other teams this season yesterdays game could have been a lot more competitive. NC had a lot of chances to break Wilton's momentum in the 2nd half but it was always stopped by a point-blank save, maybe the rematch will be similar but if this one variable is changed its a very different game. Also one player to shout out for Wilton is sophomore Jack Schwartz. He guarded Kyle Colsey, Brady Pokorny, and Doster Cromwell and I believe held them as a group to a total of 1 point throughout the entire FCIAC tournament. Wilton's really done a lot better since Coach Pearsall took over. From 2000-2018 Wilton played in and lost only one FCIAC final. Since Pearsall took over in 2019 they have been to 3 FCIAC finals already. They will graduate a lot at the end of this season but Wilton's youth program is in the best shape its been in since the early 2000's.

Still a bit frustrating to not have conference tournaments be included in seeding records. If everything is done by an algorithm whats the problem? Why not just included that data in the algorithm and run with it?

Also disappointing that Greenwich isn't in the state tourney. I like the move towards more a competitive schedule for FCIAC teams but for teams that are on the bubble of tier 1 it may result in them deliberately putting together a marshmallow soft OOC schedule to ensure they get enough wins. It also runs into the problem that on an up year teams like Ludlowe, Warde, Trumbull, or Saint Joes could pick off a few tier 1 teams. a 3rd team from tier 2 should be able to qualify if they earn their spot. I like the change overall, but I expect a few more situations like this to occur in the years to come. Seeding systems are always tough to get right when you have such an enormous variation in strength of schedule across the state.

[Kismet]

Still a bit frustrating to not have conference tournaments be included in seeding records. If everything is done by an algorithm whats the problem? Why not just included that data in the algorithm and run with it?

Also disappointing that Greenwich isn't in the state tourney. I like the move towards more a competitive schedule for FCIAC teams but for teams that are on the bubble of tier 1 it may result in them deliberately putting together a marshmallow soft OOC schedule to ensure they get enough wins. It also runs into the problem that on an up year teams like Ludlowe, Warde, Trumbull, or Saint Joes could pick off a few tier 1 teams. a 3rd team from tier 2 should be able to qualify if they earn their spot. I like the change overall, but I expect a few more situations like this to occur in the years to come. Seeding systems are always tough to get right when you have such an enormous variation in strength of schedule across the state.

The algorithm isn't the issue. it the by-laws of CIAC on what counts for tournament qualification. If you were paying attention the LN numbers changed markedly today after adding 50+ tournament scores after the tournament was seeded

[ISL Laxin']

The Lax Numbers ratings are confusing. Here's the current Top 6 (post Conf. Tourneys):

1. Prep - 94.74 Rating
2. Cheshire - 92.96 Rating
3. Staples - 91.69 Rating
4. Darien - 91.44 Rating
5. New Canaan - 90.92 Rating
6. Wilton - 90.91 Rating

It's incredibly surprising to not see Wilton as the top FCIAC team going into CIAC play. The algorithm must really be killing them for bad losses to Prep and Stepinac to start the season.

Though you'd think with wins over Staples, Darien, NC, Ridgefield (x2), Chaminade, Yorktown and John Jay - that be enough to offset the early season losses.

Class L should be very exciting. A bummer Cheshire won't be at the party. Has Cheshire gotten smaller as a town? Back in their glory days of the late 2000's they were always in L - duking it out with Prep, Greenwich and Ridgefield, while M was always Darien, NC and Wilton.

[Kismet]

The Lax Numbers ratings are confusing. Here's the current Top 6 (post Conf. Tourneys):

1. Prep - 94.74 Rating
2. Cheshire - 92.96 Rating
3. Staples - 91.69 Rating
4. Darien - 91.44 Rating
5. New Canaan - 90.92 Rating
6. Wilton - 90.91 Rating

It's incredibly surprising to not see Wilton as the top FCIAC team going into CIAC play. The algorithm must really be killing them for bad losses to Prep and Stepinac to start the season.

Though you'd think with wins over Staples, Darien, NC, Ridgefield (x2), Chaminade, Yorktown and John Jay - that be enough to offset the early season losses.

Class L should be very exciting. A bummer Cheshire won't be at the party. Has Cheshire gotten smaller as a town? Back in their glory days of the late 2000's they were always in L - duking it out with Prep, Greenwich and Ridgefield, while M was always Darien, NC and Wilton.

Mathematically, 3-4-5-6 are even. The calculation is based on ALL scores so your reference to Wilton's early season losses is correct.

[Farfromgeneva]

Good win for Wilton and surprisingly very good goaltending play. For NC you have to be a little frustrated with their shooting. I give Blankenship a lot of credit but there were a few wide open chances for NC right on the crease where they just flung the ball on net without so much as a fake. The rematch between NC & Wilton on June 3rd, baring any monumental upsets could be a trap game for Wilton. I would expect NC to spend a lot more time focusing on shot placement and I assume they didn't spend as much time scouting the Wilton goalie this previous game as they should have. NCs d-men actually did very good against Wilton's attack. Until the second half Wilton was getting most of their shots from transition opportunities and not much from settled offense. Once they began to use a lot more picks and off-ball movement around the crease things began to open up for their midfielders, but all 3 of their attack men struggled to get separation from NCs D-men. I would expect Wilton to come out with this offense from the start in their rematch and wouldn't be surprised to see NC put a pole on both Rath brothers the way Darien did. I'd still favor Wilton in the rematch but if Wilton has a goaltending performance similar to what they had against Darien or some other teams this season yesterdays game could have been a lot more competitive. NC had a lot of chances to break Wilton's momentum in the 2nd half but it was always stopped by a point-blank save, maybe the rematch will be similar but if this one variable is changed its a very different game. Also one player to shout out for Wilton is sophomore Jack Schwartz. He guarded Kyle Colsey, Brady Pokorny, and Doster Cromwell and I believe held them as a group to a total of 1 point throughout the entire FCIAC tournament. Wilton's really done a lot better since Coach Pearsall took over. From 2000-2018 Wilton played in and lost only one FCIAC final. Since Pearsall took over in 2019 they have been to 3 FCIAC finals already. They will graduate a lot at the end of this season but Wilton's youth program is in the best shape its been in since the early 2000's.

Still a bit frustrating to not have conference tournaments be included in seeding records. If everything is done by an algorithm whats the problem? Why not just included that data in the algorithm and run with it?

Also disappointing that Greenwich isn't in the state tourney. I like the move towards more a competitive schedule for FCIAC teams but for teams that are on the bubble of tier 1 it may result in them deliberately putting together a marshmallow soft OOC schedule to ensure they get enough wins. It also runs into the problem that on an up year teams like Ludlowe, Warde, Trumbull, or Saint Joes could pick off a few tier 1 teams. a 3rd team from tier 2 should be able to qualify if they earn their spot. I like the change overall, but I expect a few more situations like this to occur in the years to come. Seeding systems are always tough to get right when you have such an enormous variation in strength of schedule across the state.

Does Andre Wiest start on Wiltons close D?

[justanotherperson]

I feel like the laxnumbers seeding is a huge improvement over the way playoff seeding used to be determined which was basically your W-L record. It seems the seeding is more appropriate with the results and score surprisingly much more accurate this year

Class L - no upsets in the 1st round (Qualifying round #17 Newton beat #16 Fairfield Warde 9-8, #19 Stamford beat #14 Conard 9-8)

Class M - no upsets in the 1st round (Qualifying round - no "upsets")

Class S - #11 Somers beat #6 Ellington 9-7 (Qualifying round - no "upsets")

Out of 40 games, the lower seed beat the higher seed only 3 teams and the total margin of victory was 4 goals for those 3 games. Curious to see if this holds for the future rounds. If so then victors will be:

Class L: Fairfield Prep beats Staples (though Staples, Darien, New Canaan and Wilton are all rated within 0.75 points from each other - very tightly bunched)

Class M: Cheshire beats ND-WH (though ND and Daniel Hand are within 0.50 of each other). I am actually unclear why Daniel Hand is seeded higher than ND-WH

Class S: St Joes beats Weston

Any thoughts on the new seeding format? I kind of like it.

[Kismet]

I feel like the laxnumbers seeding is a huge improvement over the way playoff seeding used to be determined which was basically your W-L record. It seems the seeding is more appropriate with the results and score surprisingly much more accurate this year

Class L - no upsets in the 1st round (Qualifying round #17 Newton beat #16 Fairfield Warde 9-8, #19 Stamford beat #14 Conard 9-8)

Class M - no upsets in the 1st round (Qualifying round - no "upsets")

Class S - #11 Somers beat #6 Ellington 9-7 (Qualifying round - no "upsets")

Out of 40 games, the lower seed beat the higher seed only 3 teams and the total margin of victory was 4 goals for those 3 games. Curious to see if this holds for the future rounds. If so then victors will be:

Class L: Fairfield Prep beats Staples (though Staples, Darien, New Canaan and Wilton are all rated within 0.75 points from each other - very tightly bunched)

Class M: Cheshire beats ND-WH (though ND and Daniel Hand are within 0.50 of each other). I am actually unclear why Daniel Hand is seeded higher than ND-WH

Class S: St Joes beats Weston

Any thoughts on the new seeding format? I kind of like it.

Of course, you like the new system which explains why CIAC went with it with input from coaches and administrators. Unlike the old way, the have-nots duked it out in the preliminaries and if form holds you get the best teams matching up as the tournament proceeds. So now the 12 games in the next round are all potentially close and/or compelling.

Something to keep in mind when looking at LN numbers - the goal differential spread between teams decreases as the tournament proceeds so in the quarterfinals you are much more likely to see a lower ranked team win because they are much closer to the higher ranked team that they are playing.

The way it works is take the LN power rating number of any two teams playing - that difference is the calculated spread if those teams played at a neutral site. Add 1.5 to the home team's number to get what the computer thinks the outcome will be based upon past performance.

As an example Wilton is currently 90.88 and New Canaan is 90.64. Because the game is at Dunning add 1.5 to New Canaan total for an adjusted PR of 92.14. This means expect a 1-2 goal win for New Canaan if past form holds....but as we all know past form might not be worth much in a close playoff game. Previous to this Rams won by 2 at home regular season, then lost by 4 in FCIAC final at a neutral site.

In the end, the computer only gets you so far - the players and coaches make the final difference and that result then gets added in to re-calculate all the numbers the next day.

[justanotherperson]

Thanks for the deets Kismet. I figured (and hoped) the spread would be much closer as the playoffs progress which is why for Class L, the margin of error for the teams following Fairfield Prep are razor thin.

Im just happy the new seeding is a success. I remember a few years ago where Ridgefield was a double digit seed and essentially had to play their way into the tournament.

1st round of games were, for the most part, not close across all classes.

[Kismet]

Thanks for the deets Kismet. I figured (and hoped) the spread would be much closer as the playoffs progress which is why for Class L, the margin of error for the teams following Fairfield Prep are razor thin.

Im just happy the new seeding is a success. I remember a few years ago where Ridgefield was a double digit seed and essentially had to play their way into the tournament.

1st round of games were, for the most part, not close across all classes.

My pleasure. In case you didn't notice - L has been tightening up lately. Prep used to be 3.5-4 goals up on the others but the gap has now closed to less than 2 goals to Staples and another 0.5 goal to Darien. Wilton and New Canaan are just over 0.5 behind and then another 2 goal differential to Ridgefield.

[justanotherperson]

I havent noticed but totally makes sense. With everyone else winning at the end of the regular season, especially wilton and with Prep loss to cheshire that makes sense

[Blue White]

Does the computer also add 5+ goals to the New Canaan ledger to account for Wilton having prom tonight

[justanotherperson]

Interesting results from the weekend.

Class S: all chalk - it will come down to St Joes, Weston and New Fairfield

Class L: all chalk but the margins of victory are wow (Darien beats Ridgefield 11-2, Staples over GBury 19-4, New Canaan beats Wilton 8-2, Prep beat Simsbury 23-7). Always impressed with New Canaan defense but to hold Wilton to 2 goals is impressive

Class M: all chalk - Cheshires tourney to lose

So out of 52 games, 49 have been chalk so far.