All Things Russia & Ukraine

[MDlaxfan76]

Thank goodness he ain't Peter the Great.

[PizzaSnake]

Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.

Ok....here's a few:

-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.

-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.

-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine

-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.

-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see


I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.

As the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.

There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.

Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.

For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html

Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.

President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.

We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.

Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.

The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.

DocBarrister

More speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.

No, we don’t. But we can see what he is doing.

And since he’s riding the tiger he can’t dismount.

[CU88]

This opinion piece from back in February nailed it.


"What led to Russia's renewed aggression against Ukraine
Putin’s obsession with reviving a version of the Soviet empire is a case study of how strongmen leverage nostalgia.

Feb. 10, 2022
By Ruth Ben-Ghiat

"We want a stable, predictable relationship," President Joe Biden said last May when asked about his goals for his summit the next month in Geneva with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The official summit photograph communicated a sense of harmony and balance, with the leaders seated in matching chairs, a globe between them.

Many years of Kremlin propaganda about Russia being victimized by the West have prepared Russians and their allies for this moment.

Uh-oh, I thought at the time: A stable relationship with America is the last thing Putin aspires to. Russia works hard to weaken American democracy through cyberattacks, election interference, and supporting secessionist movements and other forms of extremism.

As an analyst of autocrats, I also knew that being presented as Biden's equal at the summit could spark a desire in Putin to show dominance. A few weeks later, I forecast that post-summit, we would likely see an uptick in Russian international aggression, with "chaos and risk-taking" on the horizon. That is now manifesting in Putin's apparent planned invasion of Ukraine, which would mark a return to the active warfare of 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean region.

Yet, Ukraine is also a means to a greater end. Former Estonian President Toomas Ilves has warned that "Putin wants to establish a legacy for himself in the tradition of Peter the Great and Catherine. He lived the collapse of the Soviet Union as a personal tragedy and he is convinced that Russia has an imperial vocation." The Russian president's obsessive desire to revive a version of the Soviet empire is a case study in how strongmen leverage nostalgia to bolster their own power.

Ukraine, in this scheme, would be one of several neighboring countries that act as client states — a new stage of the old Soviet doctrine of spheres of influence. Belarus, led by the dictator Alexander Lukashenko, already plays this role. Up to 30,000 Russian troops are conducting drills at the Belarus-Ukraine border, and Lukashenko has vowed to bring Ukraine "back into the fold of Slavism."

Only 4 percent of Russian respondents to a December poll hold Russia responsible for the escalation of tensions with Ukraine.

Many years of Kremlin propaganda about Russia being victimized by the West have prepared Russians and their allies for this moment. Putin has consistently depicted himself as a defender of traditional Russian values and a bulwark against the infiltration of liberal values (such as secularization, tolerance for same-sex marriage, political pluralism) that could lead the country to ruin.

Moreover, the logic of autocracies dictates that the more imperialist the country becomes, the more it must seem to be a victim of others, whether "globalists," NATO, the EU or Biden's America. "The dominant mindset is that of a fortress under siege," Masha Lipman observed in the 2016 anthology “Putin’s Russia: Past Imperfect, Future Uncertain," edited by Stephen K. Wegren, for which Lipman contributed a chapter.

That translates today into popular approval in Russia of the Kremlin's "defensive" actions: only 4 percent of Russian respondents to a December poll hold Russia responsible for the escalation of tensions with Ukraine.

Putin's longstanding personal crusade to "undo" the consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union has now led to Russia's renewed aggression against Ukraine. His assertion at the summit press conference that the United States had “declared Russia as its enemy and adversary” continued the victimization narrative and told the world that any lawless behavior Russia engaged in would be in its own defense.

Whatever happens to Ukraine, we should have no illusions that it will be enough for Putin.

Biden's notion that "thoughtful dialogue" with the Russian president in Geneva would create a safer world was far too optimistic; Putin came away from that summit likely feeling empowered to pursue his imperial dreams.

Autocrats typically don't negotiate. They instead create crises and use those situations of turmoil to extract concessions or create a "new normal" that furthers their larger geopolitical goals. This is what Putin is now doing with Ukraine.

Time will tell if his gamble will succeed."



The only way to deal with Putin if the long game of force and sanctions. Sitting down at the table to negotiate is a long term losing proposition. He will break any agreement when he sees fit.

[MDlaxfan76]

Quite agreed.

Very unfortunate reality.
Goes against all of our western, democratic instincts to pursue peace through negotiation.

[old salt]

...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.

Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.

[a fan]

Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.

Ok....here's a few:

-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.

-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.

-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine

-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.

-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see


I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.

As the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.

There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.

Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.

For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html

Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.

President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.

We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.

Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.

The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.

DocBarrister

More speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.

You are simply wrong about that.

U.S. intelligence correctly predicted that Putin would invade. The Ukrainians didn’t think he would. More than a few European governments were skeptical.

The U.S. intelligence services haven’t gotten everything right (they certainly overestimated Russia’s military capability).

And yet you think they they know precisely what Putin wants.

Good luck with that.

Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?

[MDlaxfan76]

...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.

Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.

A lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.

I do agree that "total defeat" is not realistic, that would require a direct attack and invasion...not remotely on the table. But driving them from Ukraine is indeed achievable, though obviously hard and costly. Whether his military would turn on Putin at that point is speculative, but they certainly aren't going to do so as long as they feel like they are making progress or at least not losing fast...

But yeah, "deterrence and containment" may be where we need to land. I just think that's including driving them back out of Ukraine, whether fast or slow...then "contain".

And that'll mean the continuing weaning from dependence on Russia energy, continued elimination of technology access, and continued sanctions on oligarchs...and, yup, that's likely to lead to China-Russia alliance, with Russia a de facto vassal of China...that's going to be hard for them both to manage...

A far better scenario would be that change of leadership I mentioned above.

[old salt]

Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?

...& what will that prompt Putin to do ?

[a fan]

Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?

...& what will that prompt Putin to do ?

Old Salt gets why I'm asking the question....

[old salt]

...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.

Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.

A lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.

The "best & the brightest" may possess the means to leave Russia, but they are a small minority.
The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following WW-I & the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles. Putin is appealing to that sense of grievance, just as you-know-who did in Germany.

[PizzaSnake]

...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.

Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.

A lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.

The "best & the brightest" may possess the means to leave Russia, but they are a small minority.
The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following WW-I & the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles. Putin is appealing to that sense of grievance, just as you-know-who did in Germany.

“The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.”

How about this version?

The American people still feel betrayed by the violation of the social contract following Reagan Revolution & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.

The US polity is being manipulated by various constituencies to continue in self-destructive behavior for the benefit of the few. Dissension in the ranks makes this possible. Information is the coin of the realm and no one can tell good from bad.

This discussion board is a good example of the failure of civility and rational discourse. Opinions masquerade as certainty, and faith as fact.

[a fan]

The American people still feel betrayed by the violation of the social contract following Reagan Revolution & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.

You think the average American knows that Reagan's policies marked the dissolution of the middle class? Union busting, and the removal of multinational corporations as taxpayers at both the State and Federal level?

I sure don't. If you ask the average American, I'd wager they'd tell you that Reagan cut spending by 20% or more over his reign, and "got government out of the way".

[old salt]

This discussion board is a good example of the failure of civility and rational discourse. Opinions masquerade as certainty, and faith as fact.

[MDlaxfan76]

Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.

Ok....here's a few:

-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.

-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.

-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine

-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.

-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see


I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.

As the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.

There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.

Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.

For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html

Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.

President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.

We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.

Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.

The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.

DocBarrister

More speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.

You are simply wrong about that.

U.S. intelligence correctly predicted that Putin would invade. The Ukrainians didn’t think he would. More than a few European governments were skeptical.

The U.S. intelligence services haven’t gotten everything right (they certainly overestimated Russia’s military capability).

And yet you think they they know precisely what Putin wants.

Good luck with that.

Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?

He may be deposed, but he's also shrewd enough to eliminate those threats proactively. So, he may hang on, but diminished. And over time, if our sanctions are sustained, that diminishment will grow, hampering the very real ongoing threat.

I don't understand what you think is difficult to understand re Putin...he's been incredibly clear, repeatedly, about what he "wants", speech after speech over years and years of such, as well as contemporaneously. We just didn't want to believe he'd act on those grandiose aspirations. He and his diplomats claimed he wouldn't, then did...

The big, hairy question, IMO, is whether he orders his military to go to nukes...is he that insane?
And what would his military do if he did?
Would they balk and end him then?
Or push the button?

[MDlaxfan76]

The American people still feel betrayed by the violation of the social contract following Reagan Revolution & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following the Treaty of Versailles.

You think the average American knows that Reagan's policies marked the dissolution of the middle class? Union busting, and the removal of multinational corporations as taxpayers at both the State and Federal level?

I sure don't. If you ask the average American, I'd wager they'd tell you that Reagan cut spending by 20% or more over his reign, and "got government out of the way".

I don't think that was his point...the underlying zeitgeist is resentment and grievance, how that gets channeled is the question...'who to blame?'

[MDlaxfan76]

...neither is total defeat or driving Putin from power a realistic aspiration or expectation.
It might happen but we can't count on it. Also, the aftermath could pose other dangers.
Deterrence & containment are the way forward, as we are doing in Ukraine.

Even when Putin passes from the scene, the paranoia, resentment & sense of grievance of the Russian people will persist.
The collapse of the USSR did not produce the national sense of guilt felt by the German & Japanese peoples after their military defeat.
The West must reach a rapprochement with the Russian people or risk driving them into the embrace of China.

A lot of Russian people, especially younger, were fully on board with "rapprochement" with the west...but they're fleeing this Russia. It'll require a very different leadership and political situation in Russia for them to return.

The "best & the brightest" may possess the means to leave Russia, but they are a small minority.
The Russian people still feel betrayed by the breakup of the Soviet Union & carry a sense of grievance similar to the Germans following WW-I & the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles. Putin is appealing to that sense of grievance, just as you-know-who did in Germany.

I quite agree that's what the authoritarian is doing with his propaganda...I'm just saying that all that can change, with time, under different leadership. It'll take real progress and generational turnover, but it's entirely possible.

Just as real change happened in Germany after you know who.

[a fan]

He may be deposed, but he's also shrewd enough to eliminate those threats proactively. So, he may hang on, but diminished.

Not a chance. If Putin can't let Ukraine push Russian forces out. He's a dead man if he does.

And over time, if our sanctions are sustained, that diminishment will grow, hampering the very real ongoing threat.

Sanctions? What sanctions? We're still buying Russian cr*p here in the US. And everyone in the EU and UK are still trading with him. There are no meaningful sanctions.....and THAT is why Zelensky and Biden are left twisting in the wind. Want to be angry? Be angry at every Western country that's trading with Putin.

I don't understand what you think is difficult to understand re Putin...he's been incredibly clear, repeatedly, about what he "wants", speech after speech over years and years of such, as well as contemporaneously.

Since when do you believe what a politician says in speeches, MDLax?

The big, hairy question, IMO, is whether he orders his military to go to nukes...is he that insane?

If he's backed into a corner, Ukraine takes back land, and starts attacking Russian targets? I sure as sh*t wouldn't be against it.

The main problem here, MDLax....is that the world isn't aligned against Putin. THAT is the problem here. And that is why Putin can do as he chooses.

His economy is a mess, but nowhere near where it would be if the West stopped trading with him.

[MDlaxfan76]

Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?

...& what will that prompt Putin to do ?

Old Salt gets why I'm asking the question....

So, tell us what you think he will do...given that you don't think we can know what Putin thinks...

I do think my question set at the end, above, is big and hairy...

EDIT...looks like you just answered...

[a fan]

Question: what do you think will happen to Putin if he Ukrainian forces push him out of Russia, Doc? What do you think will happen to Putin if he "loses"?

...& what will that prompt Putin to do ?

Old Salt gets why I'm asking the question....

So, tell us what you think he will do...given that you don't think we can know what Putin thinks...

I do think my question set at the end, above, is big and hairy...

EDIT...looks like you just answered...

I. don't. know. No clue.

The ONLY thing I said is: I wouldn't bet against Putin using nukes if Ukraine manages to fulfill Doc's wishes and "win", and starts lobbing missiles into Russia. That's not even close to the same thing as "he'll use nukes for sure". I don't know what he'll do. And I don't know what he'll settle for in Ukraine.

[MDlaxfan76]

He may be deposed, but he's also shrewd enough to eliminate those threats proactively. So, he may hang on, but diminished.

Not a chance. If Putin can't let Ukraine push Russian forces out. He's a dead man if he does.

And over time, if our sanctions are sustained, that diminishment will grow, hampering the very real ongoing threat.

Sanctions? What sanctions? We're still buying Russian cr*p here in the US. And everyone in the EU and UK are still trading with him. There are no meaningful sanctions.....and THAT is why Zelensky and Biden are left twisting in the wind. Want to be angry? Be angry at every Western country that's trading with Putin.

which "cr*p"? Energy? Yes, but dropping and will continue to drop. Some other raw materials? Certainly no western country cares about their finished goods.

Sanctions on chips and technology generally are what will most degrade Russian effectiveness,

I don't understand what you think is difficult to understand re Putin...he's been incredibly clear, repeatedly, about what he "wants", speech after speech over years and years of such, as well as contemporaneously.

Since when do you believe what a politician says in speeches, MDLax?

I don't see Putin as a "politician" in that sense...He's an autocrat, a despot, a propagandist...what he says on the international stage absolutely can't be trusted. But what he says in his off the cuff, rambling speeches to smaller groups, definitely reveal his worldview. And that worldview has been quite consistent...we just didn't want to believe he was that delusional.

The big, hairy question, IMO, is whether he orders his military to go to nukes...is he that insane?

If he's backed into a corner, Ukraine takes back land, and starts attacking Russian targets? I sure as sh*t wouldn't be against it.

well, I certainly hope that you would be against it. Again, I'm not advocating that Ukraine bomb Moscow...I'm saying push them out of Ukraine and until they leave, their staging bases, supply depots on the border are fair targets. But as soon as they leave, cease fire.

The main problem here, MDLax....is that the world isn't aligned against Putin. THAT is the problem here. And that is why Putin can do as he chooses.

I certainly agree that's a huge problem. But that's also why I think it's far better to get Ukraine onto the offensive, retaking their land, destroying any exposed Russian military assets along the way.

His economy is a mess, but nowhere near where it would be if the West stopped trading with him.

Certainly the more that the West weans itself off of Russian energy and raw materials, the better...but that's going to take awhile.