BOY'S HIGH SCHOOL CHAMPIONSHIP TOURNAMENT PROBABILITIES

[laf]

BOY'S HIGH SCHOOL CHAMPIONSHIP TOURNAMENT PROBABILITIES
Visit http://laxmath.com to find your teams probability to be champion.

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
California
North Coast
Central Coast
Southern
San Diego
Club
Colorado
CO Class 4A
CO Class 5A
Connecticut
CT Class L
CT Class M
CT Class S
Delaware
Florida
FL Class 1A
FL Class 2A
FL Independents
Georgia
GA Class 5A-A
GA Class 6A-7A
.Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
IN Class 2A
IN Class 1A
Club
Independent Prep Schools
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
.Maine
Maryland
MD MIAA-A/IAC
MD MILL-MAC-WCAC
MD MIAA-B
MD MIAA-C
MD 1A
MD 2A
MD 3A
MD 4A
Massachusetts
MA Div 1
MA Div 2
MA Div 3
MA Div 4
Michigan
MI Independents
MI D 1
MI D 2
.Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New England Prep
NE North/East/ISL
NE West I
NE West II-III
.NE Independents
New Hampshire
NH D
NH D
NH D
New Jersey
NJ Group
NJ Group
NJ Group
NJ Group
Non-public
Private
New Mexico
New York
NY Class A
NY Class B
NY Class C
NY Class D
NY Private
NY City
NY Catholic
North Carolina
NC Public
NC Private
NC Club
Ohio
OH Div
OH Div
Oklahoma
Oregon
Metro
Non-Metro
Pennsylvania
PA East
PA East IAC/Private
PA Central
PA West
.Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
TN Div
TN Div
Texas
TX Class A
TX Class B
TX Class C
TX Class D
Utah
UT Class A
UT Class A
UT Class A
Vermont
VT Div I
VT Div II/III
Virginia
Public
Private D
Private D
Club
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Canada East
Canada West
http/laxmath.com

[Jumbo]

Well. The first one I looked at, has teams in the wrong brackets, so the entire website is useless to me

[jmct]

Looked at CT class L. It was a total waste of time.

[fordmaddoxford]

Mt. Sinai having no shot to win NY C may surprise many.

[laf]

We are dealing with over ten thousand teams for boys, girls, men and women and we try to keep up with the movement of these teams from one division to another and we rely on outside people to support us. Unfortunately we have errors in the data base and will continue to have errors in the data base as that is the nature of our effort. We will try to address them. We are setting up a system to report errors but it is not there yet.

Jumbo, could you share with us the team that is in the wrong bracket.

Also JMCT, was it a total waste of time because we displayed results incorrectly or you just don't agree with the results. In either case, can you provide more information.

[JustOneTime]

This does not list all of the teams. Hereford and Catonsville are missing from MD2 and MD3 rankings.

[fordmaddoxford]

We are dealing with over ten thousand teams for boys, girls, men and women and we try to keep up with the movement of these teams from one division to another and we rely on outside people to support us. Unfortunately we have errors in the data base and will continue to have errors in the data base as that is the nature of our effort. We will try to address them. We are setting up a system to report errors but it is not there yet.

Jumbo, could you share with us the team that is in the wrong bracket.

Also JMCT, was it a total waste of time because we displayed results incorrectly or you just don't agree with the results. In either case, can you provide more information.

Thanks for the effort. I find it interesting.

[Jumbo]

We are dealing with over ten thousand teams for boys, girls, men and women and we try to keep up with the movement of these teams from one division to another and we rely on outside people to support us. Unfortunately we have errors in the data base and will continue to have errors in the data base as that is the nature of our effort. We will try to address them. We are setting up a system to report errors but it is not there yet.

Jumbo, could you share with us the team that is in the wrong bracket.

Also JMCT, was it a total waste of time because we displayed results incorrectly or you just don't agree with the results. In either case, can you provide more information.

Thanks for the effort. I find it interesting.

I looked at Maryland

Top 4A teams are
Broadneck
Churchill
Sherwood
Urbana

Bowie and flowers are listed on the top 10. They aren’t even top 25 in 4A

Top 3A teams
Severna Park. They are listed as 4A
Catonsville
My Hebron

Arundel is listed as 4A

Hereford is the top 2A team, I don’t see them on any of the lists.

Here is a link to the MD bracket with seedings.

http://www.mpssaa.org/mobile/state-cham ... s-central/

[jmct]

We are dealing with over ten thousand teams for boys, girls, men and women and we try to keep up with the movement of these teams from one division to another and we rely on outside people to support us. Unfortunately we have errors in the data base and will continue to have errors in the data base as that is the nature of our effort. We will try to address them. We are setting up a system to report errors but it is not there yet.

Jumbo, could you share with us the team that is in the wrong bracket.

Also JMCT, was it a total waste of time because we displayed results incorrectly or you just don't agree with the results. In either case, can you provide more information.

For CT Class L, the algorithm doesn't work. For example, it gives teams other than Darien, Ridgefield, Staples, New Canaan, Prep, and Greenwich about a 25% chance of winning it all. A more accurate estimate would be 0.00%. More specifically, New Milford with a 4% chance to win it??? Warde with a 1.75% chance??? The same Warde team that has lost be a combined margin of 62-10 to the three good teams that they have played? On their best day, teams like that have no chance at all to come close to beating the top teams. And why would Greenwich - who lost to Ridgefield by six goals and Staples by four goals, and who has no quality wins - have about the same chance as Ridgefield and Staples to win it all? Etc.

I suggest you look at the CT lacrosse poll, plus the results of each team in meaningful games, and figure out why the probabilities in your algorithm are so far from reality.

[laf]

Maryland was broken down in 1A,2A,3A,4A and there were errors in teams in certain sections. To fix the problem, at least for now, all teams were combined into Maryland public


http://laxmath.com/boys1/rating35x.php

I thanks you all for reporting this to me. Its a work in progress!

[laf]

To JMCT:

Thanks for the data. I need 24 to 48 hours to study it. I'll then repost.

Larry

[Jumbo]

Just seems like way too many HS teams for anyone to make accurate predictions nationwide. I think each of us could do this for our state teams.

For Maryland

4A.
Broadneck 45%
Churchill 40%
Sherwood 10%
Urbana 2%
South River 2%
Everyone else 1%

3A
Severna Park 75%
Catonsville 20%
Mt Hebron 4%
Everyone else 1%

2A
Kent Island 50%
Hereford 40%
Huntington 9%
Everyone else 1%

1A.
Does anyone pay attention to this bracket?

[fordmaddoxford]

NY A now Alabama
B Arizona
C Arkansas
D California

[wahoomurf]

Mt. Sinai having no shot to win NY C may surprise many.

Que? No shot? Who made these predictions and on which planet do they reside?

[kramerica.inc]

Just seems like way too many HS teams for anyone to make accurate predictions nationwide. I think each of us could do this for our state teams.

For Maryland

4A.
Broadneck 45%
Churchill 40%
Sherwood 10%
Urbana 2%
South River 2%
Everyone else 1%

3A
Severna Park 75%
Catonsville 20%
Mt Hebron 4%
Everyone else 1%

2A
Kent Island 50%
Hereford 40%
Huntington 9%
Everyone else 1%

1A.
Does anyone pay attention to this bracket?

I’d slide Westminster in there.

1A should be Fallston, Southern, or HdG. But you are correct that not many strong teams are there.

[laf]

JMCT.

The RPI, SOS, etc. translated poorly to goal margins of victory so I switched to power ratings (Goal margins) and results are in line with your comments. Sorry and thanks.

Larry

[JustOneTime]

Just seems like way too many HS teams for anyone to make accurate predictions nationwide. I think each of us could do this for our state teams.

For Maryland

4A.
Broadneck 45%
Churchill 40%
Sherwood 10%
Urbana 2%
South River 2%
Everyone else 1%

3A
Severna Park 75%
Catonsville 20%
Mt Hebron 4%
Everyone else 1%

2A
Kent Island 50%
Hereford 40%
Huntington 9%
Everyone else 1%

1A.
Does anyone pay attention to this bracket?

I’d slide Westminster in there.

1A should be Fallston, Southern, or HdG. But you are correct that not many strong teams are there.

Patterson Mill is a decent team in 1A.

[kramerica.inc]

Patterson Mill is down this year, relative to the past few.

Maybe they turn it around in the playoffs, but PM lost to their first round opponent HDG 18-6, just a couple weeks ago.

[MPSSAAlaxfan]

The MIAA and IAC in MD/DC region are entirely separate leagues. There may be a couple intra-conference games every year, but they do not compete for the same championship. Not sure why IL and other sites insist of lumping them together.

https://miaasports.net/lacrosse/

http://www.iacathletics.com/sport/0/6

[OSVAlacrosse]

The MIAA and IAC in MD/DC region are entirely separate leagues. There may be a couple intra-conference games every year, but they do not compete for the same championship. Not sure why IL and other sites insist of lumping them together.

https://miaasports.net/lacrosse/

http://www.iacathletics.com/sport/0/6

Also as good as St Johns HS is I do not think they will win the Virginia Private school VISSA they have them favored 36%