All Things Russia & Ukraine

[Kismet]

Rooskie casualties include another General and Marine Brigade commander colonel as well as a second brigade command colonel in the north who was run over by one of his own vehicles.

Another Russian armored brigade about to be cut off and encircled northeast of Kyiv.

Ukrainians also destroyed a naval landing ship in dock and damaged two others in the same vicinity.

They now say that their "first phase" is over and that they will be "consolidating strength in Donbass and land bridge to Crimea. Looks as if they are going to consolidate the territory that they have managed to control in the east and southeast and back out of areas near Kyiv and the central part of the country.

Germans announced an accelerated plan to reduce Russian gas imports in conjunction with a deal for larger amounts of LNG from USA and Qatar.

[old salt]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

[dislaxxic]

Kremlin TV Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures

If Skabeeva was counting on other pundits to lighten the mood in the studio, she was sorely mistaken. Military experts proceeded to hammer additional nails into the coffin of popular delusions about the anticipated outcome of Putin’s war against Ukraine. On Thursday, military expert Igor Korotchenko called for any protests to be stopped by military force and any vocal opponents of the Russian armed forces to be “interned.” Korotchenko called for all Ukrainian flags and symbols to be destroyed, replaced by Russian and Soviet flags. He also demanded that Ukrainians who fled to NATO countries be denied the possibility of returning to their country.

In January, experts on the same show estimated that Russia could overtake the entire neighboring country in a matter of 11 minutes. Their current predictions have shifted from minutes to decades for the Russian Armed Forces to achieve Putin’s goals in his senseless war against Ukraine.

Korotchenko surmised: “It’s obvious that the process of denazification of Ukraine will take the minimum of 15-20 years.” He predicted that the Russian troops would have to remain on Ukrainian territory, with the Russian military in charge of the entire country for the foreseeable future: “Whether this will take 15, 20 years or more, time will tell.”

General Shamanov was even more pessimistic, as he grimly anticipated that it would take the “re-education” of at least two generations of Ukrainians, before they would welcome or tolerate Russia’s dominance. He also noted that Russia’s one-million men Armed Forces aren’t enough to meet such a challenge, calling for massive increases to the country’s military might. Shamalov concluded: “Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.”

...and Salty thinks that because 600 respondents to a poll in Crimea think it should stay in Russian hands...it really, REALLY tells us the truth about Ukranian "feelings"...

..

[old salt]

Kremlin TV Descends Into Screaming Match Over Putin’s War Failures

If Skabeeva was counting on other pundits to lighten the mood in the studio, she was sorely mistaken. Military experts proceeded to hammer additional nails into the coffin of popular delusions about the anticipated outcome of Putin’s war against Ukraine. On Thursday, military expert Igor Korotchenko called for any protests to be stopped by military force and any vocal opponents of the Russian armed forces to be “interned.” Korotchenko called for all Ukrainian flags and symbols to be destroyed, replaced by Russian and Soviet flags. He also demanded that Ukrainians who fled to NATO countries be denied the possibility of returning to their country.

In January, experts on the same show estimated that Russia could overtake the entire neighboring country in a matter of 11 minutes. Their current predictions have shifted from minutes to decades for the Russian Armed Forces to achieve Putin’s goals in his senseless war against Ukraine.

Korotchenko surmised: “It’s obvious that the process of denazification of Ukraine will take the minimum of 15-20 years.” He predicted that the Russian troops would have to remain on Ukrainian territory, with the Russian military in charge of the entire country for the foreseeable future: “Whether this will take 15, 20 years or more, time will tell.”

General Shamanov was even more pessimistic, as he grimly anticipated that it would take the “re-education” of at least two generations of Ukrainians, before they would welcome or tolerate Russia’s dominance. He also noted that Russia’s one-million men Armed Forces aren’t enough to meet such a challenge, calling for massive increases to the country’s military might. Shamalov concluded: “Today, it can be clearly predicted that we will have to remain in Ukraine for 30-40 years.”

...and Salty thinks that because 600 respondents to a poll in Crimea think it should stay in Russian hands...it really, REALLY tells us the truth about Ukranian "feelings"...

3 reputable polls since 2016 which correlate with the 2014 referendum. After a cease fire, invite the UN to do a referendum.

Why were the Russians able to take Crimea, then DNR/LNR with little to no resistance ?

Krushchev got drunk at a birthday party & transferred Crimea, with it's ethnic Russian majority, to Ukraine.
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/ ... lash-point
In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave Ukraine a gift: Crimea. At the time, it seemed like a routine move, but six decades later, that gift is having consequences for both countries.

The transfer merited only a paragraph in Pravda, the official Soviet newspaper, on Feb. 27, 1954. The story was one long sentence and dense with detail. Here's what it said:

"Decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring Crimea Province from the Russian Republic to the Ukraine Republic, taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic ties between Crimea Province and the Ukraine Republic, and approving the joint presentation of the Presidium of the Russian Republic Supreme Soviet and the Presidium of the Ukraine Republic Supreme Soviet on the transfer of Crimea Province from the Russian Republic to the Ukraine Republic."

And with that, a region that had been part of Russia for centuries was "gifted" to Ukraine.

"Gifted" because Khrushchev's transfer was ostensibly to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with the Russian empire. And he probably didn't think the Soviet Union would be gone less than 40 years later.

But, asks Lewis Siegelbaum, a historian at Michigan State University, "what motivated such generosity?" Writing on the website Seventeen Moments In Soviet History, he says:

"After all, Crimea, the rugged peninsula jutting into the Black Sea, had not become territorially contiguous with Ukraine all of a sudden."

Siegelbaum argues that Crimea's cultural links with Russia were far stronger, and, at the time, there were slightly more than three Russians in Crimea for each Ukrainian. (Stalin had expelled the entire local Tatar population a decade earlier.)

And, Siegelbaum says, the idea that Crimea and Ukraine had economic similarities, as Pravda noted, was a stretch, since the peninsula was mostly a tourist destination for the rest of the Soviet Union.

There were other reasons for the handover, though.

Ukraine's great famine, or Holodomor, was created by Joseph Stalin, Khrushchev's predecessor; millions died. Stalin died in 1953, and when Khrushchev took over, "the idea was that they really needed to democratize the system, to centralize it less," says Nina Khrushcheva, Khruschev's great-granddaughter and an associate professor of international affairs at The New School in New York.

"It was somewhat symbolic, somewhat trying to reshuffle the centralized system and also, full disclosure, Nikita Khrushchev was very fond of Ukraine," she tells NPR's David Greene. "So I think to some degree it was also a personal gesture toward his favorite republic. He was ethnically Russian, but he really felt great affinity with Ukraine."

As a teenager, Khrushchev went to work in Ukraine's mines. He then joined the Communist Party and rose up through the ranks. He married a Ukrainian woman and considered Ukraine "one of his native lands," Khrushcheva says.

Russians have a decidedly different view of the events.

On Feb. 19, 2009, Pravda ran a piece with the headline: "USSR's Nikita Khrushchev gave Russia's Crimea away to Ukraine in only 15 minutes." Here's how the article described the events:

"Khrushchev informed his comrades of the decision to deliver Crimea to Ukraine incidentally, on the way to lunch. 'Yes, comrades, there is an opinion to deliver Crimea to Ukraine,' he said casually. No one dared to express any protests, because a word of the first face of the Communist Party was law.

"The agenda of the session of the Presidium of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, which took place January 25, 1954, contained a question about the delivery of the Crimean region to the structure of the Ukrainian SSR [Soviet Socialist Republic]. The discussion of the question took only 15 minutes. The participants of the meeting approved the decree, and the region was given away to Ukraine for free."

As Siegelbaum, the MSU historian, notes in his essay: "A gift that was at the time essentially meaningless has acquired great historical importance."

[Kismet]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

[old salt]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/ ... mea-a73576

[Kismet]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

Thanks. Then why invade and attempt to destroy all of the other parts of the country?
Unless the real plan was to quickly capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a Russian-backed outfit.

[MDlaxfan76]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

Thanks. Then why invade and attempt to destroy all of the other parts of the country?
Unless the real plan was to quickly capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a Russian-backed outfit.

I think Salty's argument, and I'm sure he'll correct me if I have this wrong, is that the simplest "off ramp" is to give Putin what he de facto already had taken by force, assuming that would actually end the "war". (Assuming he'd take that or be satisfied for long with just that...you are of course correct that Putin wanted it all and expected to have it all...and more...).

However..."is it worth a war?"...the Ukrainians say yes, and have been fighting since 2014. They oppose having their territorial integrity breached and they want it back. Moreover, those areas are not recognized as Russia, they are still part of Ukraine, no matter who is occupying currently.

I did find it interesting that Salty has now slid over to calling DNR/LNR "controlled by Russia" after so many months of claims that it was "separatists" fighting and polling that they wish to be "independent. Total BS that was of course, as Salty's now admitting...it was the Russians in there fighting the Ukrainians. But not actually "controlled", that would only be if the Ukrainians stopped fighting...eg Putin wins, aggression works.

I truly don't see this ending until Putin's military is thoroughly defeated and retreats. Preferably turning on Putin.

It appears that the Ukrainians are both willing to endure immense sacrifice and are making forward progress now, so it's entirely in the realm of possible that such will occur.

But the whole world is gonna be hurting until this is fully over. What a waste.

But let's be very, very clear, that's on Putin and all of his enablers and apologists.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

Thanks. Then why invade and attempt to destroy all of the other parts of the country?
Unless the real plan was to quickly capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a Russian-backed outfit.

I think Salty's argument, and I'm sure he'll correct me if I have this wrong, is that the simplest "off ramp" is to give Putin what he de facto already had taken by force, assuming that would actually end the "war". (Assuming he'd take that or be satisfied for long with just that...you are of course correct that Putin wanted it all and expected to have it all...and more...).

However..."is it worth a war?"...the Ukrainians say yes, and have been fighting since 2014. They oppose having their territorial integrity breached and they want it back. Moreover, those areas are not recognized as Russia, they are still part of Ukraine, no matter who is occupying currently.

I did find it interesting that Salty has now slid over to calling DNR/LNR "controlled by Russia" after so many months of claims that it was "separatists" fighting and polling that they wish to be "independent. Total BS that was of course, as Salty's now admitting...it was the Russians in there fighting the Ukrainians. But not actually "controlled", that would only be if the Ukrainians stopped fighting...eg Putin wins, aggression works.

I truly don't see this ending until Putin's military is thoroughly defeated and retreats. Preferably turning on Putin.

It appears that the Ukrainians are both willing to endure immense sacrifice and are making forward progress now, so it's entirely in the realm of possible that such will occur.

But the whole world is gonna be hurting until this is fully over. What a waste.

But let's be very, very clear, that's on Putin and all of his enablers and apologists.

I believe it was implied that this was Hillary Clinton and the USA’s fault and Putin is just doing what any normal person would do when wronged.

[old salt]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

Thanks. Then why invade and attempt to destroy all of the other parts of the country?
Unless the real plan was to quickly capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a Russian-backed outfit.

I don't know. Putin may have had grander ambitions, but might settle for less, as a face saving way out.

I was discussing the possibility of a cease fire leading to a negotiated settlement where Zelenskyy would have to agree to cede some territory to Russia. I'm pointing out that there is precedent & rationale for Crimea & DNR/LNR remaining under Russian control, as they have been since 2014.

The land bridge to Crimea, now held by Russian forces, from Mariupol to Kherson, encompassing the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, would then be subject to negotiation. That would still allow Ukraine to retain Odesa & Mykolaiv - the 2 main grain exporting ports & the Black Sea coast line W of Crimea. That might satisfy Putin & would not devastate Ukraine. The land bridge territories transferred are majority ethnic Russian.

That would be a significant gain for Putin, assuring unfetterd access from the Black Sea Fleet homeport of Sevastopol & control of the Sea of Azov, which is part of the connection between the Black Sea & the Caspian Sea. It would afford the Caspian Sea Fleet unthreatened connectivity with the Black Sea, restoring the naval access & freedom of movement to where it was when it was all the USSR & Soviet Navy.

[MDlaxfan76]

And I don't think any of that, Donbas, much less land bridge would be negotiated away by Ukraine under Zelensky...it's possible they'll say ok to Crimea, though still a bitter pill, but no way they say ok to no Sea of Azov...I think they'll say that any Russian speakers who want to move to Russia and be Russian are free to do so and good riddance, but Ukraine is Ukraine. And I think that'll mean Crimea too...but maybe...

And I think we should fully support them in this, as giving up any more would be a terrible precedent.

[dislaxxic]

umm, Odessa is on the Black Sea. That's not in the area of the "land bridge" being discussed, is it? So, it's not "no Black Sea" in that particular discussion...the land bridge along the Sea of Azov appears to be about 320 miles, give or take...

..

[MDlaxfan76]

umm, Odessa is on the Black Sea. That's not in the area of the "land bridge" being discussed, is it? So, it's not "no Black Sea" in that particular discussion...the land bridge along the Sea of Azov appears to be about 320 miles, give or take...

..

Sorry, meant Sea of Asov. I don't think they give up that.
Sure, Mariupol is dust...but it's going to thrive again.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/r ... index.html

“The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of ​​the blockaded Ukrainian cities,” Rudskoy said. “These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow us not only to tie down their forces and prevent them from strengthening their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LNR.”

[MDlaxfan76]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/r ... index.html

“The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of ​​the blockaded Ukrainian cities,” Rudskoy said. “These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow us not only to tie down their forces and prevent them from strengthening their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LNR.”

Big shifting of goal posts.

But ok, phase 1 failed, so let's commit genocide in eastern Ukraine, completely destroying productive cities like Mariupol...so that Donbas can be liberated...which Mariupol isn't in...

Sure, civilians can leave, to be processed into gulags if not fully compliant with Russian domination. Resist and we will pulverize you.

It's a liberation everyone!

Orwellian.

How many stingers and javelins does Zelenskyy want?

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/r ... index.html

“The public and individual experts are wondering what we are doing in the area of ​​the blockaded Ukrainian cities,” Rudskoy said. “These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow us not only to tie down their forces and prevent them from strengthening their grouping in the Donbas, but also will not allow them to do this until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LNR.”

Big shifting of goal posts.

But ok, phase 1 failed, so let's commit genocide in eastern Ukraine, completely destroying productive cities like Mariupol...so that Donbas can be liberated...which Mariupol isn't in...

Sure, civilians can leave, to be processed into gulags if not fully compliant with Russian domination. Resist and we will pulverize you.

It's a liberation everyone!

Orwellian.

How many stingers and javelins does Zelenskyy want?

Those people are Russian. Been reading it here for years. These folks are liberators. Just read today that the majority of those folks want to be part of Russia.

[old salt]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

Thanks. Then why invade and attempt to destroy all of the other parts of the country?
Unless the real plan was to quickly capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a Russian-backed outfit.

I think Salty's argument, and I'm sure he'll correct me if I have this wrong, is that the simplest "off ramp" is to give Putin what he de facto already had taken by force, assuming that would actually end the "war". (Assuming he'd take that or be satisfied for long with just that... you are of course correct that Putin wanted it all and expected to have it all...and more...). If it doesn't end the war, a cease fire in place & protracted negotiation buys time to better arm the Ukrainians & more time for EU-NATO to slow march their forces to the E front. Also time to establish humanitarian safe zones.

However..."is it worth a war?"...the Ukrainians say yes, and have been fighting since 2014. They oppose having their territorial integrity breached and they want it back. Moreover, those areas are not recognized as Russia, they are still part of Ukraine, no matter who is occupying currently.
I look forward to you making that argument when China invades Taiwan.

I did find it interesting that Salty has now slid over to calling DNR/LNR "controlled by Russia" after so many months of claims that it was "separatists" fighting and polling that they wish to be "independent. Total BS that was of course, as Salty's now admitting Calm down. Salty's admitting nothing, especially your false characterizations. I picked up DNR/LNR from the articles I linked on polling. It's shorthand for the separatist controlled areas of the Donbas. Read those polls & see the %'s who favored independence, as well as the %'s who favored Russian control. I never denied that the separatists in DNR/LNR were Russian proxies. The separatists do indeed control the DNR/LNR. ...it was the Russians in there fighting the Ukrainians. But not actually "controlled", that would only be if the Ukrainians stopped fighting...eg Putin wins, aggression works.

I truly don't see this ending until Putin's military is thoroughly defeated and retreats. Preferably turning on Putin.
It appears that the Ukrainians are both willing to endure immense sacrifice and are making forward progress now, so it's entirely in the realm of possible that such will occur. ,,,but are NATO, the EU & the US willing to provide the support needed & endure the costs & side effects indefinitely ?

But the whole world is gonna be hurting until this is fully over. What a waste.
But let's be very, very clear, that's on Putin and all of his enablers and apologists.
All the additional deaths & carnage from extending the war are worth it, so long as armchair virtue signalers in the US can blame it on Putin.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Russia should keep Crimea because of....POLLS??

What a wonderful thought! Authoritarians the world over rejoice at the determinative import that polls now (evidently) have...

Because Crimea & the DNR/LNR are now governed by Russia & a majority of the residents want it that way.

It is not without precedent. Consider how the former Yugoslavia has been segmented, & continues to be.
NATO went to war with Serbia to establish independence for Kosovo.

Is it worth a war to return those areas to Ukrainian control if the residents want to be part of Russia again.

You guys are like the Eagle Scout wannabe who needed one more merit badge, so he dragged a little old lady across the street, only to find out she didn't want to cross.

I have not seen a reporting on your statement about large populations in these areas being supportive of becoming part of Russia. Can you share a link/links? Certainly did not appear to be the case in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv or Mariupol.

Those places are not in Crimea & the DNR/LNR -- the areas controlled by Russia since 2014 which were the subjects of my lengthy post above.

Thanks. Then why invade and attempt to destroy all of the other parts of the country?
Unless the real plan was to quickly capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a Russian-backed outfit.

I think Salty's argument, and I'm sure he'll correct me if I have this wrong, is that the simplest "off ramp" is to give Putin what he de facto already had taken by force, assuming that would actually end the "war". (Assuming he'd take that or be satisfied for long with just that... you are of course correct that Putin wanted it all and expected to have it all...and more...). If it doesn't end the war, a cease fire in place & protracted negotiation buys time to better arm the Ukrainians & more time for EU-NATO to slow march their forces to the E front. Also time to establish humanitarian safe zones.

However..."is it worth a war?"...the Ukrainians say yes, and have been fighting since 2014. They oppose having their territorial integrity breached and they want it back. Moreover, those areas are not recognized as Russia, they are still part of Ukraine, no matter who is occupying currently.
I look forward to you making that argument when China invades Taiwan.

I did find it interesting that Salty has now slid over to calling DNR/LNR "controlled by Russia" after so many months of claims that it was "separatists" fighting and polling that they wish to be "independent. Total BS that was of course, as Salty's now admitting Calm down. Salty's admitting nothing, especially your false characterizations. I picked up DNR/LNR from the articles I linked on polling. It's shorthand for the separatist controlled areas of the Donbas. Read those polls & see the %'s who favored independence, as well as the %'s who favored Russian control. I never denied that the separatists in DNR/LNR were Russian proxies. The separatists do indeed control the DNR/LNR. ...it was the Russians in there fighting the Ukrainians. But not actually "controlled", that would only be if the Ukrainians stopped fighting...eg Putin wins, aggression works.

I truly don't see this ending until Putin's military is thoroughly defeated and retreats. Preferably turning on Putin.
It appears that the Ukrainians are both willing to endure immense sacrifice and are making forward progress now, so it's entirely in the realm of possible that such will occur. ,,,but are NATO, the EU & the US willing to provide the support needed & endure the costs & side effects indefinitely ?

But the whole world is gonna be hurting until this is fully over. What a waste.
But let's be very, very clear, that's on Putin and all of his enablers and apologists.
All the additional deaths & carnage from extending the war are worth it, so long as armchair virtue signalers in the US can blame it on Putin.

All the additional death and carnage is the fault of folks on Fanlax. Putin is an innocent man just liberating his people split up by the evil USA.

[old salt]

From behind the NRO paywall. More hints of a cease fire in place & negotiated settlement.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/ ... r-weapons/

Ukrainians Frustrated by U.S. Reluctance to Transfer Anti-Ship Missiles, Other Weapons

A source told NR that the weapons will eventually be delivered — ‘it’ll just be when a lot of people are dead.’

One month after the start of the Russian invasion, Kyiv’s calls to the U.S. and European NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine have grown softer. Ukrainian officials are now laser-focused on a new, more attainable ask: more weapons from the U.S. and other Western allies with which to launch attacks on Russian positions.

Washington’s slow effort to provide these weapons to the Ukrainians has frustrated leaders in Kyiv, notwithstanding U.S. claims that the administration is moving swiftly and effectively to shore up Ukraine’s position.

During a virtual appearance at an Atlantic Council webinar today, Andriy Yermak, the head of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential office, expressed appreciation for weapons transfers from Washington. “But honestly,” he added, “we need more, and need quick.” Yermak also rattled off a list of weapons his country is requesting, including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, small arms, and heavier systems, including multiple rocket launchers and long-range artillery.

Ukraine needs the capability to break through Russian lines to recapture territory seized during the invasion, said a source who speaks regularly with senior Ukrainian officials, as President Biden rallied NATO leaders in Brussels yesterday and prepared to visit Poland. But the White House is reluctant to give Kyiv the weapons to do that.

“There’s no interest to give Ukraine counteroffensive capacity. Until that happens, Putin’s game in Ukraine will not change,” the source, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the Ukrainian leadership’s perspective, told National Review. “The administration actually thinks that by not provoking Putin you’re de-escalating. Well, quite the opposite.”

Counteroffensive capabilities also include tanks, planes, anti-ship missiles, and high-altitude missiles. During an address to a NATO summit on Thursday, Zelensky requested 1 percent of the alliance’s stocks of those systems. “The only thing I ask of you after this one month of war,” he said, preempting a potential objection, is “please do not tell us that our army is not up to NATO’s standards.”

The Ukrainians have shown that they can do all of the fighting themselves, if President Biden and other leaders empower them to do so.
Ukraine has begun some small counteroffensives in recent days, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which is tracking the conflict. Mounting those counterattacks matters immensely for any negotiated settlement reached between Moscow and Kyiv. Moscow’s advances have been stalled in some places, but the Russian forces have still made alarming progress in recent weeks. If Ukraine doesn’t hold Russian-occupied territory when the talks reach a conclusion, it might be forced to cede much of it.

Although the Biden administration has moved to provide Kyiv with some $2 billion in security assistance, including $1 billion in the past week, the focus up to now has been on Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles.

While that’s made a significant difference on the battlefield, there’s been a reluctance to provide more, as shown by the administration’s headline-grabbing refusal to help Poland transfer MiG jets to Ukraine because the planes are “offensive” in nature. The White House has said that it’s wary of transferring weapons that could be perceived by the Kremlin as escalatory, leaving Kyiv in the lurch and Warsaw unable to act.

Washington’s hesitancy can also be seen in the glacial pace of getting weapons to Ukraine. According to a senior administration official who briefed reporters yesterday, the U.S. has — one month into the Russian attack — “started consulting with allies on providing” anti-ship missiles but also noted “there may be some technical challenges with making that happen.”

Ukrainian officials still want Soviet-era jets, such as the MiGs, and it’s unclear where their latest requests for tanks stand. Reached for comment, the National Security Council referred NR to the White House’s previous comments on weapons transfers and the senior administration official’s comments on discussions about anti-ship weapons and other systems.

Meanwhile, any pressure from Congress on the administration is likely to be negligible for now, if recent history is any indication.

Biden’s move to waive sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline last year prompted strong bipartisan opposition. Nevertheless, when legislation was introduced to reverse Biden’s move, the White House’s allies in the Senate voted it down. In the days immediately following the start of the invasion, of course, the president revoked the waivers, effectively killing the pipeline.

The source with knowledge of the Ukrainian government’s thinking said that Ukraine has also noticed that Senate Democrats are reluctant to break with the administration to back the transfer of counteroffensive weapons. But the person said that it will take place eventually: “Unfortunately, it’ll take another 20,000–30,000 lives before that happens. It will happen. It’ll just be when a lot of people are dead.”

The administration has signaled a willingness to speak out against Moscow’s barbarism in Ukraine, but it’s been much too slow to give the Ukrainians the means with which to push forward in a new phase in this war.