2006 Pre-Draft

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2006 Pre-Draft

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Draft Order

If you just want the “bottomline” about the draft order, go to the bottom of this post. Otherwise…

Big Picture
This season, and each season going into the future, the draft order will be decided by three factors: each team’s lacrosse rank, education rank, and social rank. The former ranking, each team’s lacrosse rank, is decided as such:

Lacrosse Rank
There are two components that encapsulate the lacrosse rank: lacrosse history and lacrosse future.

Lacrosse History: To get the lacrosse history rankings, each team is ranked from one to eighteen (there are eighteen teams in our league) with relation to “how well your team has done” historically. Each season, there will be an end-of-season final ranking. This ranking is based first on how far you went in the play-offs and secondarily on how well you did in the regular season. If you finish the season ranked 18th, you get a score of 18. If you finish the season ranked 17th, you get a score of 17. etc. If you finish the season ranked 8th (e.g you went to the play-offs, lost in the first round, and you had the worst regular season record of all the teams that lost in the first round of the play-offs), you get a score of 7. Ranked 7th gets a score of 6. 6th gets a score of 5. 5th gets a score of 4. The team that is ranked 4th (e.g. played in the Final Four and lost and had a worse regular season record than the other Final Four loser) gets a score of 2.5. 3rd gets a score of 1.5. 2nd gets a score of 0. And, the champion gets a score of -2. In other words, at the end of each season, each team will have a league ranking and, more importantly for a favorable draft pick, a certain number of “points” for the season.

The designated number of points or your score for a season will be multiplied by a multiplier. We multiply your score for the previous season by one. We multiply your score for two seasons ago by 0.9. We multiply your score for three seasons ago by 0.8. etc. (By definition, your score from 11 seasons ago is irrelevant, your season score from ten years ago which is multiplied by 0.1 is barely relevant, and… the most recent season is the most relevant.) We add-up your team’s “points” with the multiplier factored in and… That’s your Total Lacrosse History Points. We rank the teams in the league with the team with the lowest points ranked first and the team with the most points ranked last and… That’s the Lacrosse History Rankings.

Lacrosse Future: To get the lacrosse future rankings, each team is ranked from one to eighteen with relation to how many points their non-graduated (i.e. current) players scored in the previous season. This is all players, not just the top 3 attackmen and top 3 middies.

The total lacrosse score is each team’s lacrosse history rank plus the each team’s lacrosse future rank (with the lacrosse future rank multiplied by 1.01). The team with the lowest score has the #1 lacrosse rank, second lowest score is the #2 lacrosse rank, etc.

Education and Social Rank
These two rankings are 100% random. i.e. your ranking is based on a number that we pick out of a hat.

Weighting of each Rank
For this season, each team’s lacrosse rank will have a weight of 2%, education rank will have a weight of 49%, and social rank will have a weight of 49%. This, and the coming seasons, the weights will be:

2006: Lacrosse – 2%, Education – 49%, Social – 49%
2007: Lacrosse – 4%, Education – 48%, Social – 48%
2008: Lacrosse – 8%, Education – 46%, Social – 46%
2009: Lacrosse – 16%, Education – 42%, Social – 42%
2010: Lacrosse – 33%, Education – 33%, Social – 33%
2011: Lacrosse – 33%, Education – 33%, Social – 33%

As is obvious by this chart, this season, your lacrosse rank is basically a tie breaker. But, in the future, it will become increasingly more important. This gradual increase of the lacrosse rank weight gives everyone an opportunity to build up their squad and boost their lacrosse rank.

Bottom-line
The bottom-line is that this season’s draft pick order will be 98% random. In order to set yourself up for a top draft pick in future seasons, your squad needs to do three things:

1. Consistently go to the play-offs and win games within the play-offs
2. Begin each season with a roster of players who had put up big points in the previous season
3. Have lots of good fortune when we’re randomly picking the education and social rankings.

I’ll post this season’s lacrosse, education, and social rankings in the coming days. The Lacrosse Rankings have already been tabulated and… I’ll share them soon.

Thanks,
Matnum PI
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Lacrosse Rank
Postby Matnum PI on Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:21 pm

A student/athlete is looking at numerous schools for their 4-year career and they rank each school by the school's education, social aspects, and... lacrosse program. This is the ranking of each of our team's lacrosse program for the 2006 season. Keep in mind, the Lacrosse Rank is very lightly weighted in the Draft Pick Order for this season. i.e. the Lacrosse Rank is basically meaningless this season. None the less, here are the Lacrosse Ranks for this season.

Lacrosse Rank

In the simplest terms, the Lacrosse Rank = the Lacrosse History + the Lacrosse Future.

Lacrosse Tradition/History Rank
Lacrosse History Rank (Total)
CLiverman 1
Stegmakk 2
Spenny 3
AllSports 4
Matnum 5
Wholly Metro (FKA Wholly Laxman) 6
Commonman 7
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf) 8
Jackson 9
EaZyE (FKA HomeBlue) 10
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 11
Biffman 12
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 13
WNY 14
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 15
Longest (FKA Doned) 16
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 17
LaxSoup 18

In the simplest terms, the Lacrosse Tradition/History (above) is each team's 2004 Rank plus their 2005 Rank.

2004 Rank
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf) 1
AllSports 2
CLiverman 3
Biffman 4
Stegmakk 5
Matnum 6
Jackson 7
Spenny 8
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 9
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 10
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 11
LaxSoup 12
Commonman 13
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 14
Longest (FKA Doned) 15
WNY 16
EaZyE (FKA HomeBlue) 17
Wholly Metro (FKA Wholly Laxman) 18

2005 Rank
Wholly Metro (FKA Wholly Laxman) 1
CLiverman 2
EaZyE (FKA HomeBlue) 3
Spenny 4
Commonman 5
Stegmakk 6
Matnum 7
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 8
WNY 9
AllSports 10
Jackson 11
Longest (FKA Doned) 12
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 13
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 14
Biffman 15
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 16
LaxSoup 17
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf) 18

Lacrosse Future Rank
Stegmakk 1
Spenny 2
Biffman 3
Commonman 4
WNY 5
Longest (FKA Doned) 6
Wholly Metro (FKA Wholly Laxman) 7
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 8
EaZyE (FKA HomeBlue) 9
Matnum 10
Jackson 11
CLiverman 12
LaxSoup 13
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 14
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 15
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 16
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf) 17
AllSports 18

So, if a student/athlete was only factoring in a school's lacrosse program when they were selecting a school in 2006, they would rank our teams in this order. The ranking of each of our team's lacrosse program for the 2006 season, or the
LACROSSE RANK (FINAL) is:
Stegmakk 1
Spenny 2
Commonman 3
Wholly Metro 4
CLiverman 5
Biffman 6
Matnum 7
WNY 8
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 9
EaZyE 10
Jackson 11
Longest (FKA Doned) 12
AllSports 13
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf/RGB29) 14
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 15
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 16
LaxSoup 17
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 18

Unfortunately for Stegs and fortunately for Johnny Reb, the incoming student athletes are also factoring in each school's education and social aspects. Smile I'll post these two (random) rankings and the resulting Final Draft Order as we get closer to the draft.
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Seems
Postby WNY Lax on Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:49 pm

to me the ranking has a hind sight bias built in....but that's another issue...


finals standings last year were skewed, it seems to me, by your draft position relative to the added teams....also injuries play a role...how do you handicap injuries?? In the real world they can and have made a difference in where players go....so can potential playing time.....those are two factors that can make a somewhat weaker program more attractive...you can see that effect vividly played out on the decisions goalies are making this year to pick an easy example Very Happy Very Happy
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Postby Longest on Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:55 pm

I call shenanigans! Shenanigans!

Ok really I just wanted to say that.

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Re: Seems
Postby Matnum PI on Sat Jan 21, 2006 6:58 pm

WNY Lax wrote:
to me the ranking has a hind sight bias built in....but that's another issue...

Says the guy with the #14 Lacrosse Tradition (History) and the #5 Lacrosse Outlook (Future). Rolling Eyes

Injuries and Play-time... I think you're making a case for making the Lacrosse Tradition more heavily weighted. i.e. if a team has a great Lacrosse Outlook, the incoming recruit won't get PT and... They'll go somewhere else.

As for other factors in the real NCAA world that aren't factored into this formula... There are lots of them and... it's tough. Using your example, will a recruit prefer to play for a top 10-20 team and get 4 years of play-time or would they rather play for a top 3-5 team and more likely win a National C'ship? The answer is... it depends. As a result, I just avoid the issue. On the other hand would a recruit like to play for a team where they'll win a C'ship ring? The answer is yes. And, the formula we have speaks to this.

Again, an imperfect formula in terms of mirroring the NCAAs exactly, but better than just a straight random draw.
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Re: Seems
Postby PATALK on Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:38 pm

Matnum PI wrote:
WNY Lax wrote:
to me the ranking has a hind sight bias built in....but that's another issue...


As for other factors in the real NCAA world that aren't factored into this formula... There are lots of them and... it's tough. Using your example, will a recruit prefer to play for a top 10-20 team and get 4 years of play-time or would they rather play for a top 3-5 team and more likely win a National C'ship? The answer is... it depends.

As a result, I just avoid the issue???

On the other hand (SAME HAND IT SEEMS)would a recruit like to play for a team where they'll win a C'ship ring? The answer is yes. And, the formula we have speaks to this.

Again, an imperfect formula in terms of mirroring the NCAAs exactly, but better than just a straight random draw.


Better?? Must be better, because it certainly favors those fantasy teams that got an early advantge by being prepared and awake for the first draft of the league? You know those teams that only had to make 2-5 selections in the second draft.

They were probably thinking, wouldn't it be sweet if we could come up with a way.....maybe something called tradition or something like that ....make it seem like it parallels the NCAA however imperfectly......that let's us have an advantage in the draft for several years....well that is if we're not completely screwed by chance.

Love that this league is so cut throat..... anybody else notice where this approach leaves all those FKA teams ranked.... elitest I'd say ....now there's a close parallel.

I love it .....don't change a thing.
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Re: Seems
Postby Matnum PI on Sun Jan 22, 2006 11:15 pm

PATALK wrote:
They were probably thinking, wouldn't it be sweet if we could come up with a way.....maybe something called tradition or something like that...


As an FYI, there is no "they". There's "me". I came up with this and have gotten zero feedback or outside influence. If there's a conspiracy, it's just me who is making it happen.

PATALK wrote:
Better?? Must be better, because it certainly favors those fantasy teams that got an early advantage by being prepared and awake for the first draft of the league? You know those teams that only had to make 2-5 selections in the second draft.


Two Points:

1- Let's not forget that your "Lacrosse Rating" counts 2% in the 2006 draft. (See "Weighting of Rank" below) That is to say that it basically counts zero. And, quite frankly, it counts relatively little in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, you finally can say that your Lacrosse Rating is starting to mean something. And, even with this said, if you have a Education rating of 4, a social rating of 5, and a lacrosse rating of 18 (i.e. dead last), your theoretical draft pick number wouldn't be 4.5th as dictated by the two random factors but would end up 6.5th. i.e., even in 2009, your rating is not so powerful. You take a hit, but it doesn't kill you. (And that's four seasons away for heaven's sake!!!) Smile In 2010 and beyond, NOW it for sure means something. If you have this same 4, 5, and 18 in 2010, you'd have the theoretical 9th pick when you were hoping to have the theoretical 4.5th pick. That's a pretty good drop.

2-The Lacrosse History for each season counts 10% less each season that passes. We multiply your Lacrosse History score for the previous season by one. We multiply your Lacrosse History score for two seasons ago by 0.9. We multiply your score for three seasons ago by 0.8. etc. (By definition, your score from 11 seasons ago is irrelevant, your season score from ten years ago which is multiplied by 0.1 is barely relevant, and… the most recent season is the most relevant.) What this means is that in 2010, when our Lacrosse Score actually means something, our inaugural season, 2004, will be devalued by 50% and last season will be devalued by 40%.

My point being that, despite the conspiracy theories, everyone has an opportunity to leverage their Lacrosse Rank by the time that it really counts. That's why I'm announcing this system now and doing this gradual insertion of the Lacrosse Rating over several years. I'm doing this so I can avoid the "this isn't fair, it's a self-serving system" kvetching which... I've somehow still been unable to avoid. Rolling Eyes

Weighting of each Rank
For this season, each team’s lacrosse rank will have a weight of 2%, education rank will have a weight of 49%, and social rank will have a weight of 49%. This, and the coming seasons, the weights will be:

2006: Lacrosse – 2%, Education – 49%, Social – 49%
2007: Lacrosse – 4%, Education – 48%, Social – 48%
2008: Lacrosse – 8%, Education – 46%, Social – 46%
2009: Lacrosse – 16%, Education – 42%, Social – 42%
2010: Lacrosse – 33%, Education – 33%, Social – 33%
2011: Lacrosse – 33%, Education – 33%, Social – 33%
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Postby Longest on Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:23 am

Speaking as one of the FKA teams, I don't feel screwed at all. I did just fine last year and, hopefully, will do so again, God and draft wililng. But by 2010, the team is going to be solely of my construction. And again I say, the draft order is not the end-all and be-all of a good team. There are values in every round, just find them.

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Re: Seems
Postby PATALK on Mon Jan 23, 2006 1:17 pm

Matnum PI wrote:
For this season, each team’s lacrosse rank will have a weight of 2%, education rank will have a weight of 49%, and social rank will have a weight of 49%. This, and the coming seasons, the weights will be:

2006: Lacrosse – 2%, Education – 49%, Social – 49%
2007: Lacrosse – 4%, Education – 48%, Social – 48%
2008: Lacrosse – 8%, Education – 46%, Social – 46%
2009: Lacrosse – 16%, Education – 42%, Social – 42%
2010: Lacrosse – 33%, Education – 33%, Social – 33%
2011: Lacrosse – 33%, Education – 33%, Social – 33%

As is obvious by this chart, this season, your lacrosse rank is basically a tie breaker. But, in the future, it will become increasingly more important. This gradual increase of the lacrosse rank weight gives everyone an opportunity to build up their squad and boost their lacrosse rank.


So completely random and independent selections of Education and Social ranking, where each team gets a value of (one thru eighteen), Cool the statistics would say the the average total would be about 19. While it is unlikely, it is also possible that all teams could total 19 and tie. If all teams did tie, then the draft would be:

Stegmakk 1
Spenny 2
Commonman 3
Wholly Metro 4
CLiverman 5
Biffman 6
Matnum 7
WNY 8
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 9
EaZyE 10
Jackson 11
Longest (FKA Doned) 12
AllSports 13
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf/RGB29) 14
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 15
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 16
LaxSoup 17
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 18

Now two completely random equally weighted events canceling each other out.....no it could never happen.....ok it could happen.....but more than likely there will be a few ties.....

We've got a hardly noticeable (2%) tie-breaker. Thank god.

Well enough with the "kvetching" thing....I'm with Dan. By 2010 we should be completely responsible for our teams construction and perhaps a few years after that completely free of a lacrosse history built on a bias.

P.S. I Love My Team.
There is no reward without effort.
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Re: Lacrosse Rank
Postby stegmakk on Mon Jan 23, 2006 4:17 pm

Matnum PI wrote:
So, if a student/athlete was only factoring in a school's lacrosse program when they were selecting a school in 2006, they would rank our teams in this order. The ranking of each of our team's lacrosse program for the 2006 season, or the
LACROSSE RANK (FINAL) is:
Stegmakk 1
Spenny 2
Commonman 3
Wholly Metro 4
CLiverman 5
Biffman 6
Matnum 7
WNY 8
PA Talk (FKA Dolby) 9
EaZyE 10
Jackson 11
Longest (FKA Doned) 12
AllSports 13
Attack Dog (FKA Lone Wolf/RGB29) 14
GCLax (FKA TripleB) 15
NC Lax (FKA Homer Jay) 16
LaxSoup 17
Johnny Reb (FKA BlueLax) 18
[/size]


Woohoo!
Not that it means squat since 98% of the draft order will be randomly decided.
At least I am first in something somewhere for once Smile
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