All Things Russia & Ukraine

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6ftstick
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by 6ftstick »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:41 am
6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:44 am
a fan wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:34 pm That makes even less sense. Your tone seems to attempt to rebut my point that China is a far greater foe than Russia if they decide to turn our trade spat into a Cold War.

And you reply with a new aircraft carrier?

I don't get it.
Your point was that Trumps trade war is fake and pointless. The chinese used the nearly 600 Billion trade surplus to build the carrier.

They've also used the surplus for decades to try and overtake us as the Worlds number 1 economy.

We never contributed billions (Trillions really) to the former Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Did the write a check using the surplus account?
Moneys fungible. They had 600 Billion to play with.

Do you think they put in Chinese food stamps? Or Government healthcare? Maybe a Chinese WIC program?
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:49 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:41 am
6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:44 am
a fan wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:34 pm That makes even less sense. Your tone seems to attempt to rebut my point that China is a far greater foe than Russia if they decide to turn our trade spat into a Cold War.

And you reply with a new aircraft carrier?

I don't get it.
Your point was that Trumps trade war is fake and pointless. The chinese used the nearly 600 Billion trade surplus to build the carrier.

They've also used the surplus for decades to try and overtake us as the Worlds number 1 economy.

We never contributed billions (Trillions really) to the former Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Did the write a check using the surplus account?
Moneys fungible. They had 600 Billion to play with.

Do you think they put in Chinese food stamps? Or Government healthcare? Maybe a Chinese WIC program?
Huh?
They have guaranteed full employment (very low pay rate, but sufficient). Government healthcare, free. They provide free housing (for those coming off of farms being converted to industrialized farming). Cheap, fast, modern public transportation.

People work their tails off. Paid dirt (by our standards) but sufficient to maintain a basic lifestyle. Fast growing middle class humping to expand their lifestyle. Exploding super rich class with conspicuous consumption.

Interesting dynamic. Total government control, enforced in all sorts of ways.
Advantage of being able to throw nearly unlimited, inexpensive, people at decisions, tremendous brain power (same % of smart people, just way, way, more total people). Another advantage is the speed of making major decisions due to central control, no worries about 'zoning' etc.

Their Achilles heel is the lack of an innovation culture.
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:49 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:41 am
6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:44 am
a fan wrote: Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:34 pm That makes even less sense. Your tone seems to attempt to rebut my point that China is a far greater foe than Russia if they decide to turn our trade spat into a Cold War.

And you reply with a new aircraft carrier?

I don't get it.
Your point was that Trumps trade war is fake and pointless. The chinese used the nearly 600 Billion trade surplus to build the carrier.

They've also used the surplus for decades to try and overtake us as the Worlds number 1 economy.

We never contributed billions (Trillions really) to the former Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Did the write a check using the surplus account?
Moneys fungible. They had 600 Billion to play with.

Do you think they put in Chinese food stamps? Or Government healthcare? Maybe a Chinese WIC program?
What account was that cash sitting in?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldi ... nance/amp/

Didn’t you learn about this in class?
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
a fan
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by a fan »

6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:44 am Your point was that Trumps trade war is fake and pointless. The chinese used the nearly 600 Billion trade surplus to build the carrier.
Yes. Would you have preferred the alternative? Cold War with China, and being on the brink of WWIII for the last 50 years....and counting? How big do you think our military budget would be if we were in a Cold War with them for 50 years? 3x? 4x what it is now?

You'd have guys like old salt telling us that we need every penny to contain China.

I prefer Nixon's path. Less stress, and far less costly.
6ftstick wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:44 am They've also used the surplus for decades to try and overtake us as the Worlds number 1 economy.
Ah, so you're buying Trump's BS about "bad" trade deficits. I'm shocked.

So----it's far worse now than it was under Obama. You mad at Trump for this? Or do you have yet another BS excuse as to why it's cool that by your own metric (trade deficits are bad), Trump is failing miserably?
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by a fan »

OCanada wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:07 am Trump’s trade war is real. I don’t believe he was saying otherwise. It is a real trade war that is harming this country.

China is the biggest foe in the future and Trump has been an enormous help to them
Yes, he has been.

When I say it's a fake trade war----what I mean is: Trump started a problem, and just like he did with NAFTA, he's going to claim to his idiotic fawning base that he "fixed trade with China".

And nothing material will have changed. Or at least, nothing that will fix the two things Trump said he'd fix: the trade imbalance (which isn't a problem, but whatever) and keep China from mucking with intellectual property laws. Neither will happen, because Trump can't get them to do either. He'll find some pointless victories to hang his hat on (China will agree to allow more US imports that will never arrive), and his fans will cheer. Rinse. Repeat.

Hey is anyone enjoying the unreal economic boom we've gotten since Trump fixed NAFTA? Wowee!!! What a difference!! I can't believe how much the economy is roaring since he negotiated that landmark, totally epic, game-changing deal! I think I have goosebumps. Should we all agree to cal this the "Canada Boom"??

Meanwhile, our trade imbalance with China is worse than ever---but Trump's fans are THRILLED with how this is all going. That's all this is about.

And Trump is playing them---even farmers who are enamored with little R's-----like a fiddle. Oh well. Enjoy your little R's. I'm sure these farmers families can pay their mortgage and put food on the table with little R's.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by old salt »

China's volume of trade with the US & their dependence on our technology, innovation, universities, & Silicon Valley are all factors which make war less likely & diplomacy more viable with them. The Chinese don't need the US as a propaganda boogeyman.

None of that applies to Russia, which is why they are our most dangerous adversary & why our narcissistic lack of diplomacy with them, & our disregard for their history & nationalistic sense of grievance are so dangerous. Rivalry & conflict with the US serves Putin's purposes. Not so with Xi.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:54 pm China's volume of trade with the US & their dependence on our technology, innovation, universities, & Silicon Valley are all factors which make war less likely & diplomacy more viable with them. The Chinese don't need the US as a propaganda boogeyman.

None of that applies to Russia, which is why they are our most dangerous adversary & why our narcissistic lack of diplomacy with them, & our disregard for their history & nationalistic sense of grievance are so dangerous. Rivalry & conflict with the US serves Putin's purposes. Not so with Xi.
Interesting take on it, though I'd not be so sure we don't have the possibility of a militarily aggressive China. We're already seeing elements of a more muscular approach by them. And a very active cyber arm.

In addition to their weakness in innovation, they have a really problematic situation of an aging population. That's eventually going to create enormous stress.

But we may be able to navigate though this if we continue to stress trade as a positive, rather than this 'trade war' stuff.

On Russia, I guess our difference in view is that while I certainly agree with diplomacy where possible, I don't think appeasement of Putin will ever be successful. He's going to need to fail in order for that authoritarian kleptocracy regime to ever reform.
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:54 pm China's volume of trade with the US & their dependence on our technology, innovation, universities, & Silicon Valley are all factors which make war less likely & diplomacy more viable with them.
You're all over the place with this stuff.

You just told me that the Nord Stream Pipeline is inherently bad. I pointed out that the pipeline has two ends, making it less likely for Putin to cause problems, rather than more likely. Because: what you just wrote above.

Rivalry and conflict doesn't serve Putin's purpose. If it did, why are they trying to get US Sanctions dropped? Further, why would the build a pipeline to the EU, if it's better to have conflict with them? Further still, why would Putin so much as speak to the US if conflict and rivalry is better?

Money. I have NO idea why you keep ignoring this but, it's all about money. And Putin and Russia are not doing well on this front.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by old salt »

a fan wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:12 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:54 pm China's volume of trade with the US & their dependence on our technology, innovation, universities, & Silicon Valley are all factors which make war less likely & diplomacy more viable with them.
You're all over the place with this stuff. ...& nuance is a concept beyond your grasp.

You just told me that the Nord Stream Pipeline is inherently bad. I pointed out that the pipeline has two ends, making it less likely for Putin to cause problems, rather than more likely. Because: what you just wrote above.Nordstream makes Germany overdependent on Russia for energy & puts NATO & other EU nations at risk. Putin already showed his willingness to use this as a weapon when he turned off the gas transiting to & thru the Ukraine to the EU in winter.

Rivalry and conflict doesn't serve Putin's purpose. If it did, why are they trying to get US Sanctions dropped? Further, why would the build a pipeline to the EU, if it's better to have conflict with them? Further still, why would Putin so much as speak to the US if conflict and rivalry is better?
Russia's building Nordstream 2 to divide the EU/NATO. They can use it to supply Germany & W EU, while blackmailing Ukraine & E EU (again).
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russ ... SKBN1HH2HL

Money. I have NO idea why you keep ignoring this but, it's all about money. And Putin and Russia are not doing well on this front.
Putin has plenty of money to rebuild his military & use it for his adventurism abroad, which you continue to fail to acknowledge.
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm ...& nuance is a concept beyond your grasp.
No. That's not it. It's your constant game of: The libs are doing it wrong. Putin is always winning....unless you mention Trump. Then you change gears, and tell us that Trump is being hard on Putin. Yet at the exact same time....Putin is still winning. And then you bring up the Deep State, insisting that they are in the way of Trump flawlessly dealing with Putin. And no matter what happens in the world, Putin is winning, America is doing it wrong and losing......right up until you mention Trump. It's just ridiculous.

You don't want to admit that your worldview starts with a conclusion, and works its way back to a premise.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Nordstream makes Germany overdependent on Russia for energy & puts NATO & other EU nations at risk. Putin already showed his willingness to use this as a weapon when he turned off the gas transiting to & thru the Ukraine to the EU in winter.
And if Germany shuts it down, your ridiculous logic says
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Russia's building Nordstream 2 to divide the EU/NATO.
:lol: There it is again. You just got done telling me that Trump made NATO stronger than ever. What happened?
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Putin has plenty of money to rebuild his military & use it for his adventurism abroad, which you continue to fail to acknowledge.
To what end? Again: NATO is stronger than ever, remember? He doesn't have anywhere near enough money to compete with the US, let alone NATO.

As for his adventurism----he's in Syria. What did he get for that? A rookie Cal Ripken card?

It's checkers masquerading as chess.

Here's a better example, because we can look back on it, decades later: what did invading Afghanistan do for the Soviets?

A bunch of pointless dead Russians. All this "project of power" nonsense is neat-o to discuss in think tanks and Grad school seminars. But in the end, does it move the football?

Nope.
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by old salt »

a fan wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:25 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm ...& nuance is a concept beyond your grasp.
No. That's not it. It's your constant game of: The libs are doing it wrong. Putin is always winning....unless you mention Trump. Then you change gears, and tell us that Trump is being hard on Putin. Yet at the exact same time....Putin is still winning. And then you bring up the Deep State, insisting that they are in the way of Trump flawlessly dealing with Putin. And no matter what happens in the world, Putin is winning, America is doing it wrong and losing......right up until you mention Trump. It's just ridiculous.

You don't want to admit that your worldview starts with a conclusion, and works its way back to a premise.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Nordstream makes Germany overdependent on Russia for energy & puts NATO & other EU nations at risk. Putin already showed his willingness to use this as a weapon when he turned off the gas transiting to & thru the Ukraine to the EU in winter.
And if Germany shuts it down, your ridiculous logic says
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Russia's building Nordstream 2 to divide the EU/NATO.
:lol: There it is again. You just got done telling me that Trump made NATO stronger than ever. What happened?
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Putin has plenty of money to rebuild his military & use it for his adventurism abroad, which you continue to fail to acknowledge.
To what end? Again: NATO is stronger than ever, remember? He doesn't have anywhere near enough money to compete with the US, let alone NATO.

As for his adventurism----he's in Syria. What did he get for that? A rookie Cal Ripken card?

It's checkers masquerading as chess.

Here's a better example, because we can look back on it, decades later: what did invading Afghanistan do for the Soviets?

A bunch of pointless dead Russians. All this "project of power" nonsense is neat-o to discuss in think tanks and Grad school seminars. But in the end, does it move the football?

Nope.
You make no distinction between Putin & the USSR in the Cold War.
What does the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan have to do with what Putin's doing now ?

Putin is spending very little, relative to what he's causing NATO to expend to counter him.
He got a warm water port in the E Med, at a bargain price, without having to rebuild Syria, while the US destroyed IS for him.
He just had his 2 old transport planes stop in Syria, pick up his S-300 missile techs there, & fly them into Venezuela to set up the S-300's he sold Maduro months ago, greatly limiting our military options there, for very little investment. He might have just saved Maduro, just like he saved Assad.
He's getting a lot of bang for his buck.

You clearly don't understand Nordstream. It gives Putin the ability to cut off gas transiting Ukraine & supplyin E EU, without disrupting supply to Germany & W EU. A method he has already used to starve Ukraine & divide E vs W EU.

...& you can't acknowledge that Putin has played a weak hand skillfully, while we've played a strong hand badly.
I keep waiting for signs of Russia's economic collapse which you predict.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Seems to me we can hold a couple of thoughts at the same time.

Putin's a KGB mastermind (connection Soviet) and indeed is playing his limited hand with skill (though the long term remains to be seen). He's using all sorts of asymmetric means to damage the West, the most important of which has been his work at undermining trust in democratic norms and institutions, international organizations. But that's just one aspect.

We can also say that Bush was wrong that he could read Putin's heart; Putin knew what he was doing from the start. Obama was outplayed, red line, Crimea. Hillary eventually recognized this. And Trump is the gift that keeps on giving and giving and giving.

But at the same time we can recognize that Putin's chief objective in all of this is maintaining domestic power, with full kleptocracy. Nationalism, with the West as enemy, is primarily just a means to that end. Frustrating the oligarchs is the best hope of constraining and ultimately defeating Putin's ambitions. Obama began that process, Congress, that's the GOP Congress, forced Trump to continue, though he's dragged his heels and pulled sanctions where he could.
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by OCanada »

China by accounts significant contributions from China. One of Trumps early actions was to pull out of the Asian trade agreement.

That was economically and geo politically a big mistake.

There is an enormous amount of soft power that devolves from bring the biggest economy in the world and having its currency as the de facto world currency. It’s huge. By some measures China is already the biggest economy in the world. The consensus is they will be no later than 2050. A consensus can be wrong of course but should never be ignored.

We have turned over Asian Markets we could have kept for out selves. Jobs in sectors that will provide jobs in the next two decades have been defaulted because of underinvestment here which continues to carry significant opportunity cost and undermine our global competitiveness.

Other countries have begun to question our economic judgments. If they lose confidence we will lose tremendous soft power. Appointing an economic cretinlike Herman Cain or that other bebish sends a terrible message. Trumps tax cuts were an enormous infusion of fiscal stimulus that produced a sugar high that is wearing off. The last thing he wants is for that to continue deep into an election year. His policies are economically awful do his only hope for a quick fix is an interest rate cut which will provide another large stimulus which will compromise our ability to deal with economic issue, and the Fed mandate to provide price stability

The USA has an aging population problem. So do many Euro countries.

China educated more than 40,000 engineers a year. They are well ahead of us in education people for next generation jobs
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:43 pm You make no distinction between Putin & the USSR in the Cold War.
What does the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan have to do with what Putin's doing now ?
I'm explaining that these moves are gold for guy like you who----military and foreign policy wonks---- who are so deep into their fields that the can't see the forest from the trees.

So that's why I asked: what did the Soviets get by invading and messing with Afghanistan. The answer, obviously, is nothing. Dead Russians. Wasted money. That's it. They gained NOTHING.

While guys like you would have waxed poetic about the Soviets projecting power while that nonsense in Afghanistan was occurring in real time. It was pointless. You never want to hear that the best move for America is to do nothing. Ignore what the Soviets are doing in Afghanistan (and in our current context, Syria), and let them blow money and valuable military hardware trying to project power and look cool for the Russian media.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union is going broke. Rome is burning.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Putin is spending very little, relative to what he's causing NATO to expend to counter him.
You mean the US. Because we're dumb enough to think he's going to magically skip over Belarus using magic beans, and invade Poland directly.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm He got a warm water port in the E Med, at a bargain price, without having to rebuild Syria, while the US destroyed IS for him.
On no! Not a port! What's he going to do there? Open a Trump Hotel? Invade Greece? BTW, "at a bargain price"....money matters again? How many times are you going to move the goalposts on this point?
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm He just had his 2 old transport planes stop in Syria, pick up his S-300 missile techs there, & fly them into Venezuela to set up the S-300's he sold Maduro months ago, greatly limiting our military options there
:lol: So we were going to invade Venezuela...and now we can't?

Where do I send "thank you flowers" to Putin? Have his address handy? ;)
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm You clearly don't understand Nordstream. It gives Putin the ability to cut off gas transiting Ukraine & supplyin E EU, without disrupting supply to Germany & W EU. A method he has already used to starve Ukraine & divide E vs W EU.
And once he does that just one time, it's now a 10 Billion useless hunk of metal. All you want to discuss is how Putin wins. No downsides to anything he does. It's ridiculous.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm ...& you can't acknowledge that Putin has played a weak hand skillfully, while we've played a strong hand badly.
Here's a simple way of figuring out who is winning: where would you rather live? Russia, or the US of A?

You know the answer. All of Putin's overtures are pointless. Mucking with US elections is pointless. Invading Syria is pointless. He does these pointless things, meanwhile, Russia becomes a crappier and crappier place to live. Yet you think they are "winning".

Agree to disagree, I guess. Russia's GDP was growing at 5+% per year before all this stupidity.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm I keep waiting for signs of Russia's economic collapse which you predict.
Never once said the economy would collapse. I said that money matters. But you have found a economic singularity where money matters for every other country and leader in the world-----just not Putin. Bravo.
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

OCanada wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:07 pm China by accounts significant contributions from China. One of Trumps early actions was to pull out of the Asian trade agreement.

That was economically and geo politically a big mistake.

There is an enormous amount of soft power that devolves from bring the biggest economy in the world and having its currency as the de facto world currency. It’s huge. By some measures China is already the biggest economy in the world. The consensus is they will be no later than 2050. A consensus can be wrong of course but should never be ignored.

We have turned over Asian Markets we could have kept for out selves. Jobs in sectors that will provide jobs in the next two decades have been defaulted because of underinvestment here which continues to carry significant opportunity cost and undermine our global competitiveness.

Other countries have begun to question our economic judgments. If they lose confidence we will lose tremendous soft power. Appointing an economic cretinlike Herman Cain or that other bebish sends a terrible message. Trumps tax cuts were an enormous infusion of fiscal stimulus that produced a sugar high that is wearing off. The last thing he wants is for that to continue deep into an election year. His policies are economically awful do his only hope for a quick fix is an interest rate cut which will provide another large stimulus which will compromise our ability to deal with economic issue, and the Fed mandate to provide price stability

The USA has an aging population problem. So do many Euro countries.

China educated more than 40,000 engineers a year. They are well ahead of us in education people for next generation jobs
Yes, China's sheer #'s are a huge advantage. Tons and tons of engineers.
But they don't have a culture of challenging the status quo, everything driven by gov't directive/permission.
That permeates challenging scientific status quo. Everything is about cheaper, so great process engineering, but not true innovation. But they steal very, very effectively.

The US has a far better demographic trend, most importantly because of immigrants. We assimilate immigrants much better than most of the rest of the world, certainly China, and this drives a younger working population... having kids.

It's a major strength.
Yet, some of us act like we're being "invaded".
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

a fan wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:32 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:43 pm You make no distinction between Putin & the USSR in the Cold War.
What does the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan have to do with what Putin's doing now ?
I'm explaining that these moves are gold for guy like you who----military and foreign policy wonks---- who are so deep into their fields that the can't see the forest from the trees.

So that's why I asked: what did the Soviets get by invading and messing with Afghanistan. The answer, obviously, is nothing. Dead Russians. Wasted money. That's it. They gained NOTHING.

While guys like you would have waxed poetic about the Soviets projecting power while that nonsense in Afghanistan was occurring in real time. It was pointless. You never want to hear that the best move for America is to do nothing. Ignore what the Soviets are doing in Afghanistan (and in our current context, Syria), and let them blow money and valuable military hardware trying to project power and look cool for the Russian media.

Meanwhile, the Soviet Union is going broke. Rome is burning.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Putin is spending very little, relative to what he's causing NATO to expend to counter him.
You mean the US. Because we're dumb enough to think he's going to magically skip over Belarus using magic beans, and invade Poland directly.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm He got a warm water port in the E Med, at a bargain price, without having to rebuild Syria, while the US destroyed IS for him.
On no! Not a port! What's he going to do there? Open a Trump Hotel? Invade Greece? BTW, "at a bargain price"....money matters again? How many times are you going to move the goalposts on this point?
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm He just had his 2 old transport planes stop in Syria, pick up his S-300 missile techs there, & fly them into Venezuela to set up the S-300's he sold Maduro months ago, greatly limiting our military options there
:lol: So we were going to invade Venezuela...and now we can't?

Where do I send "thank you flowers" to Putin? Have his address handy? ;)
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm You clearly don't understand Nordstream. It gives Putin the ability to cut off gas transiting Ukraine & supplyin E EU, without disrupting supply to Germany & W EU. A method he has already used to starve Ukraine & divide E vs W EU.
And once he does that just one time, it's now a 10 Billion useless hunk of metal. All you want to discuss is how Putin wins. No downsides to anything he does. It's ridiculous.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm ...& you can't acknowledge that Putin has played a weak hand skillfully, while we've played a strong hand badly.
Here's a simple way of figuring out who is winning: where would you rather live? Russia, or the US of A?

You know the answer. All of Putin's overtures are pointless. Mucking with US elections is pointless. Invading Syria is pointless. He does these pointless things, meanwhile, Russia becomes a crappier and crappier place to live. Yet you think they are "winning".

Agree to disagree, I guess. Russia's GDP was growing at 5+% per year before all this stupidity.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm I keep waiting for signs of Russia's economic collapse which you predict.
Never once said the economy would collapse. I said that money matters. But you have found a economic singularity where money matters for every other country and leader in the world-----just not Putin. Bravo.
Maybe Salty already has a dacha over there, a fan. ;)
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:35 pm
OCanada wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:07 pm China by accounts significant contributions from China. One of Trumps early actions was to pull out of the Asian trade agreement.

That was economically and geo politically a big mistake.

There is an enormous amount of soft power that devolves from bring the biggest economy in the world and having its currency as the de facto world currency. It’s huge. By some measures China is already the biggest economy in the world. The consensus is they will be no later than 2050. A consensus can be wrong of course but should never be ignored.

We have turned over Asian Markets we could have kept for out selves. Jobs in sectors that will provide jobs in the next two decades have been defaulted because of underinvestment here which continues to carry significant opportunity cost and undermine our global competitiveness.

Other countries have begun to question our economic judgments. If they lose confidence we will lose tremendous soft power. Appointing an economic cretinlike Herman Cain or that other bebish sends a terrible message. Trumps tax cuts were an enormous infusion of fiscal stimulus that produced a sugar high that is wearing off. The last thing he wants is for that to continue deep into an election year. His policies are economically awful do his only hope for a quick fix is an interest rate cut which will provide another large stimulus which will compromise our ability to deal with economic issue, and the Fed mandate to provide price stability

The USA has an aging population problem. So do many Euro countries.

China educated more than 40,000 engineers a year. They are well ahead of us in education people for next generation jobs
Yes, China's sheer #'s are a huge advantage. Tons and tons of engineers.
But they don't have a culture of challenging the status quo, everything driven by gov't directive/permission.
That permeates challenging scientific status quo. Everything is about cheaper, so great process engineering, but not true innovation. But they steal very, very effectively.

The US has a far better demographic trend, most importantly because of immigrants. We assimilate immigrants much better than most of the rest of the world, certainly China, and this drives a younger working population... having kids.

It's a major strength.
Yet, some of us act like we're being "invaded".
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/quantum ... g-china-us

Wait until China backs one of our Presidential candidates and works to get him/her elected....
Witch Hunt....we should change our passwords...
“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia

Post by old salt »

a fan wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:32 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:43 pm You make no distinction between Putin & the USSR in the Cold War.
What does the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan have to do with what Putin's doing now ?
I'm explaining that these moves are gold for guy like you who----military and foreign policy wonks---- who are so deep into their fields that the can't see the forest from the trees.

So that's why I asked: what did the Soviets get by invading and messing with Afghanistan. The answer, obviously, is nothing. Dead Russians. Wasted money. That's it. They gained NOTHING.
Putin learned from that. He is not invading & occupying countries. He's propping up endangered strong men, preventing regime changes & gaining strategic allies, influences & bases, with minimal investment.

While guys like you would have waxed poetic about the Soviets projecting power while that nonsense in Afghanistan was occurring in real time. It was pointless. You never want to hear that the best move for America is to do nothing. Ignore what the Soviets are doing in Afghanistan (and in our current context, Syria), and let them blow money and valuable military hardware trying to project power and look cool for the Russian media.
Silly comparison. There's never been any disagreement that Afghanistan was overreach -- the USSR's Vietnam. Putin learned from it.
Meanwhile, the Soviet Union is going broke. Rome is burning.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Putin is spending very little, relative to what he's causing NATO to expend to counter him.
You mean the US. Because we're dumb enough to think he's going to magically skip over Belarus using magic beans, and invade Poland directly.
Every time Putin does a Zapad exercise, he masses thousands of troops inside Belarus on the border. NATO can't ignore that. If our NATO allies thought Belarus was a viable buffer, they would not be positioning their troops inside our Baltic NATO allies.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm He got a warm water port in the E Med, at a bargain price, without having to rebuild Syria, while the US destroyed IS for him.
On no! Not a port! What's he going to do there? Open a Trump Hotel? Invade Greece? BTW, "at a bargain price"....money matters again? How many times are you going to move the goalposts on this point?
Refuel, resupply, rearm. Sortie ships into the Med or Persian Gulf, without having to transit the straits out of the Black Sea, or break out through the Baltic & North Seas. The same reason the US Navy has home ports in Spain & Japan. We'd still have one in the PI & in Crete, if host countries would allow it.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm He just had his 2 old transport planes stop in Syria, pick up his S-300 missile techs there, & fly them into Venezuela to set up the S-300's he sold Maduro months ago, greatly limiting our military options there
:lol: So we were going to invade Venezuela...and now we can't?
Having S-300's manned by Russian techs greatly reduces the threat of US military action to support Maduro's opposition. This matters greatly to the Generals propping up Maduro & is a significant sign of Russia's support.
Where do I send "thank you flowers" to Putin? Have his address handy? ;)
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm You clearly don't understand Nordstream. It gives Putin the ability to cut off gas transiting Ukraine & supplyin E EU, without disrupting supply to Germany & W EU. A method he has already used to starve Ukraine & divide E vs W EU.
And once he does that just one time, it's now a 10 Billion useless hunk of metal. All you want to discuss is how Putin wins. No downsides to anything he does. It's ridiculous. You still don't get it. He's not going to shitdown Nordsream, neither will his German partners. It gives him the ability to reduce or shut off the flow to/thru Ukraine & the E EU, & crank up prices for the Nordstream flow.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm ...& you can't acknowledge that Putin has played a weak hand skillfully, while we've played a strong hand badly.
Here's a simple way of figuring out who is winning: where would you rather live? Russia, or the US of A?
...if your middle class or better. If you looted the economy via Wall St or Silicon Valley.
Unemployed miners & assy line workers don't see much difference.

We've squandered much of the strategic advantage we won during the Cold War.


You know the answer. All of Putin's overtures are pointless. Mucking with US elections is pointless. Invading Syria is pointless. He does these pointless things, meanwhile, Russia becomes a crappier and crappier place to live. Yet you think they are "winning".
Look at Putin's domestic support %'s. He's giving the Russian people what they think they want. He's got them believing the fall of the USSR was a western plot to loot & criminalize the country during the '90's.

Agree to disagree, I guess. Russia's GDP was growing at 5+% per year before all this stupidity.
It was 7% under Putin, before energy prices collapsed & US fracking kicked in. He still has enough for his military. Arms exports are a money maker. He remains the main alternative for the export of military technology.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/europe/r ... index.html
Domestic ag production has grown as a result of sanctions. Ag exports now exceed oil exports.
https://www.economist.com/business/2018 ... powerhouse
The Russian people will suffer a lot for a strong nationalist leader who plays to their paranoia, sense of national grievance, & threat from the west -- it is their heritage. Just like any peacock US Senator can play President by bashing Russia, without having to deal with the consequences.

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm I keep waiting for signs of Russia's economic collapse which you predict.
Never once said the economy would collapse. I said that money matters. But you have found a economic singularity where money matters for every other country and leader in the world-----just not Putin. Bravo.
It's not slowing him down yet. He's doing business with China & the rest of the world which resents US meddling.
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Re: All Things Russia

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old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:45 pm [Putin learned from that. He is not invading & occupying countries. He's propping up endangered strong men, preventing regime changes & gaining strategic allies, influences & bases, with minimal investment.
Uh huh. Is he occupying Syria, or not? Yep. He is.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:45 pm Silly comparison. There's never been any disagreement that Afghanistan was overreach -- the USSR's Vietnam. Putin learned from it.
Learned from it, and yet is now in three foreign countries. You'd flunk out of any Grad seminar with this nonsense.

Professor "Old salt, can you think of any downside for Putin's actions in Crimea, Ukraine, and Syria?"

Old Salt: "Not-a-one. Everything is coming up Putin!"

Professor "Come back when you've thought about this a little more, Mr. Salt."
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Every time Putin does a Zapag exercise, he masses thousands of troops inside Belarus on the border. NATO can't ignore that. If our NATO allies thought Belarus was a viable buffer, they would not be positioning their troops inside our Baltic NATO allies.
Bluffing and posturing. Been doing it for 50 years. Rinse. Repeat. All of it wastes money.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm The same reason the US Navy has home ports in Spain & Japan. We'd still have one in the PI & in Crete, if host countries would allow it.
And only needed if you plan on invading nations with Spec Ops, as the US has for 50+ years. If you don't do that, they're all utterly pointless. If Putin plans on doing this, he's going to need a lot more than Italy's GDP.

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm You clearly don't understand Nordstream. It gives Putin the ability to cut off gas transiting Ukraine & supplyin E EU, without disrupting supply to Germany & W EU. A method he has already used to starve Ukraine & divide E vs W EU.
Congratulation, you've found another magic bean. It's the only pipeline that gives leverage to one side of the pipeline.

Professor "Old salt, can you think of any downside for Russia if Germany shuts off Nord2?"

Old Salt: "Not-a-one. Everything is coming up Putin! And it turns out that Russia is magic, and not only do they not need money...they don't need to sell their energy products"

Professor "Come back when you've thought about this a little more, Mr. Salt."


old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Look at Putin's domestic support %'s. He's giving the Russian people what they think they want. He's got them believing the fall of the USSR was a western plot to loot & criminalize the country during the '90's.
You don't get it. When you run the media, you don't to do anything. All you need to do is TELL your supporters you did something.

Exhibit A: Trump. He just needs to tell FoxNation that all our trade deals are fixed, and GDP is far above Obama's. Do they believe it? You bet they do. Funniest part is, Trump doesn't need State Run media. They just need Fox. Fox is literally cramming the Federal government BS to its viewers, and they believe every single word....while at the same time, believe they are free thinkers, and don't trust government. It's insane. You could't explain this to an alien if you had a hundred years to do it.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm It's not slowing him down yet. He's doing business with China & the rest of the world which resents US meddling.
Well, I have great news. We have a Republican as POTUS, and the Mueller report is in----and according to you, that means Trump is cleared. Handcuffs are now off, and you're out of excuses as to why Trump hasn't stopped Putin from winning.

So I get to sit back and watch Trump flawlessly handle Putin over the next two years. Should be a treat to watch Trump show haranguing Obama how it's done. Got any popcorn? ;)

You and I both know you're just toying with me, and you know doggone well that things are far from flawless in Putin-land. You just refuse to admit it. Stubborn, to the last. It's one of the reasons I like you, frankly. Have a great week.
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Re: All Things Russia

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a fan wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:52 pm
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:45 pm [Putin learned from that. He is not invading & occupying countries. He's propping up endangered strong men, preventing regime changes & gaining strategic allies, influences & bases, with minimal investment.
Uh huh. Is he occupying Syria, or not? Yep. He is.
You don't understand the difference between intervention & occupation.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:45 pm Silly comparison. There's never been any disagreement that Afghanistan was overreach -- the USSR's Vietnam. Putin learned from it.
Learned from it, and yet is now in three foreign countries. You'd flunk out of any Grad seminar with this nonsense.

Professor "Old salt, can you think of any downside for Putin's actions in Crimea, Ukraine, and Syria?"

Old Salt: "Not-a-one. Everything is coming up Putin!"

Professor "Come back when you've thought about this a little more, Mr. Salt."
You'd have flunked the entrance exam, based on the intervention vs occupation question.
What has been the downside for Putin ? Sanctions which harm out allies more than him ?

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Every time Putin does a Zapag exercise, he masses thousands of troops inside Belarus on the border. NATO can't ignore that. If our NATO allies thought Belarus was a viable buffer, they would not be positioning their troops inside our Baltic NATO allies.
Bluffing and posturing. Been doing it for 50 years. Rinse. Repeat. All of it wastes money.
Doing this every few years costs Putin much less than it costs us. His troops don't come that far & go home afterwards.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm The same reason the US Navy has home ports in Spain & Japan. We'd still have one in the PI & in Crete, if host countries would allow it.
And only needed if you plan on invading nations with Spec Ops, as the US has for 50+ years. If you don't do that, they're all utterly pointless. If Putin plans on doing this, he's going to need a lot more than Italy's GDP.
Or launching cruise missiles, as both Russia & the US did into Syria. ...or shadowing transiting US battle groups.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm You clearly don't understand Nordstream. It gives Putin the ability to cut off gas transiting Ukraine & supplyin E EU, without disrupting supply to Germany & W EU. A method he has already used to starve Ukraine & divide E vs W EU.
Congratulation, you've found another magic bean. It's the only pipeline that gives leverage to one side of the pipeline.

Professor "Old salt, can you think of any downside for Russia if Germany shuts off Nord2?"
Putin won't shutdowm Nordstream 2. It gives him yje ability to shut down the pipelines through Ukraine & E EU, holding them hostage, while still supplying Germany & W EU at inflated prices.

Old Salt: "Not-a-one. Everything is coming up Putin! And it turns out that Russia is magic, and not only do they not need money...they don't need to sell their energy products"

Professor "Come back when you've thought about this a little more, Mr. Salt."
You wandered into the wrong room Professor. This is the War College seminar. Your philosophy seminar is down the hall.

old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm Look at Putin's domestic support %'s. He's giving the Russian people what they think they want. He's got them believing the fall of the USSR was a western plot to loot & criminalize the country during the '90's.
You don't get it. When you run the media, you don't to do anything. All you
need to do is TELL your supporters you did something.

Exhibit A: Trump. He just needs to tell FoxNation that all our trade deals are fixed, and GDP is far above Obama's. Do they believe it? You bet they do. Funniest part is, Trump doesn't need State Run media. They just need Fox. Fox is literally cramming the Federal government BS to its viewers, and they believe every single word....while at the same time, believe they are free thinkers, and don't trust government. It's insane. You could't explain this to an alien if you had a hundred years to do it.
old salt wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:06 pm It's not slowing him down yet. He's doing business with China & the rest of the world which resents US meddling.
Well, I have great news. We have a Republican as POTUS, and the Mueller report is in----and according to you, that means Trump is cleared. Handcuffs are now off, and you're out of excuses as to why Trump hasn't stopped Putin from winning.

So I get to sit back and watch Trump flawlessly handle Putin over the next two years. Should be a treat to watch Trump show haranguing Obama how it's done. Got any popcorn? ;)
We both know that Trump will never be able to deal with Putin. ...& there's been so much irrational Russophobic agitprop, I don't see future Presidents being able to do a reset with Putin. This could be another long Cold War, with no detente or START treaties. We've thoroughly politicized our national security interests.

You and I both know you're just toying with me, and you know doggone well that things are far from flawless in Putin-land. You just refuse to admit it. Stubborn, to the last. It's one of the reasons I like you, frankly. Have a great week.
Last edited by old salt on Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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