All things CoronaVirus

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.

How many of your friends and family members have died of the Chinese Corona Virus?

0 people
43
63%
1 person.
10
15%
2 people.
3
4%
3 people.
5
7%
More.
7
10%
 
Total votes: 68

njbill
Posts: 6835
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:35 am

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

I can really only speak in some detail about New Jersey. As to the other states, other than California where my daughter lives, all I know is what I read.

So as to New Jersey, I am convinced the problem is supply from the federal government. New Jersey has set up a number of mega sites throughout the state. Plus some (a comparative handful) of drug stores get the vaccine. (This is over and beyond vaccinations in hospitals administered to healthcare workers. From the conversations I’ve had in my doctors’ offices with doctors and staff, the vaccination of healthcare workers in New Jersey is well underway.)

The mega center in my town only gets enough vaccine to be operational for a certain number of hours a day (6-7-ish), nothing approaching 24/7 which they are geared up to do. Now, in fairness, this site has only been open one week. Maybe the site will be getting more vaccine down the road, but that would mean, I suspect, that the state’s supply would increase as well. Don’t know about that.

I have not been inside the site yet which is in a closed department store (I’ve been in the space when the store was open), but I have seen two somewhat lengthy videos of the operation. The one I saw today had vaccine station signs throughout. I saw one sign that said vaccine station number 18. So they have at least 18 stations, maybe more.

When I was lucky enough to get an email saying I could sign up for an appointment, the appointments that were available only covered six or seven hours per day.

The governor happened to be at the site today, and he said on camera that the problem in New Jersey is supply. Everything I have seen suggests that is correct.

I have no doubt that, as elsewhere, the drug stores in New Jersey could administer vaccinations if they had the vaccine. That’s where a lot of people get their flu shots, including me. But there simply isn’t enough vaccine to go to all of the drugstores. So only a comparatively few are currently available to vaccinate people.

Appointments are hard to come by. You have to register on both the state site and then, separately, on the site of the specific venue where you want to get vaccinated. Then you have to wait for that venue to send you an email saying appointment slots are available.

I know quite a number of people who simply haven’t been able to get an appointment. I suspect that the sites are limiting the number of appointments both in terms of the number per day and how far out in the future they are going because of concerns about future availability of vaccine. My doctor told me yesterday that the mega side in my town is now making appointments into March.

My appointment is February 15. I hope it holds, but have seen stories about appointments being canceled in New Jersey and elsewhere. I don’t know what the procedure is for scheduling my second shot. I’ve written a few times about questions on the window for the second shot. Well, now we are hearing that it is at least two or three weeks following the first shot. Not surprising, at least to me.

I heard another thing today of interest. My daughter is a psychologist in California. Luckily for her (and me as her father) psychologists have been added to the list of healthcare providers in California eligible to get the vaccination. She got her first shot today at Dodger Stadium. Had an appointment, which really just turned out to be a crowd control mechanism, for 9:40. Got the vaccination at 10:30. Not bad all things considered. She got the Moderna vaccine and was told to come back in three weeks. I asked her why three weeks since we have been told the waiting period for Moderna is four weeks. She said that that is what she was told. She confirmed that with a friend in the medical field who is administering vaccinations at Mass General. Apparently that’s what they are doing at MGH. (Moderna=3 weeks). Hadn’t heard that before. Haven’t read anything about it. I’ll just pass that along for what it is worth.

My sense is that there is blame both on the federal and state level to go around. It seems the states were not ready to hit the ground running with the logistics of sites where vaccinations would actually be administered. Maybe they were waiting to pull the trigger until the vaccines have been approved.

I know you guys are extensively debating the supply issues. My two cents is that manufacturers knew last summer (June, July, August at the latest?) what the vaccines were going to be because they were putting them into peoples arms in trials. So, they could have been mass manufacturing them since last summer, subject to shelflife issues. A country that could manufacture enough military equipment to defeat the Japanese at the Battle of Midway six months after Pearl Harbor using technology from 80 years ago can’t mass manufacturer vaccines in that amount of time? Doesn’t sound right to me.
a fan
Posts: 17723
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

njbill wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:34 pm A country that could manufacture enough military equipment to defeat the Japanese at the Battle of Midway six months after Pearl Harbor using technology from 80 years ago can’t mass manufacturer vaccines in that amount of time? Doesn’t sound right to me.
All due respect to my fellow posters.......That's because it ISN'T right.
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

a fan wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:33 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:56 pm we are not making widgets.
You don't know that. Full stop.

Know how I know this? Easy. Tell me: what is the bottleneck in producing a finished vaccine dose in America for Pfizer? It's always something in mass production.

The glass? Needles? Labels? On site refrigeration? Filling heads? The liquid dose itself?

You. Don't. Know.

It can EASILY be something stupid like glass vials keeping production down.

Widgets.

And the bottleneck for Pfizer can easily be entirely different from Moderna's.


Edit to add: I have a new Whiskey coming out this year. Do you know what's delayed it by 3 months? The stupid little tamper proof cap on the bottle, called a capsule...manufacturer is unexpectedly backlogged. It happens. And it's rarely the same component that gets in the way of a new release. Sometimes it's the glass. Sometimes it's the label. Sometimes its the box.

Once we had a two month delay because they couldn't get the proper color ink needed for our boxes. Their supplier had unexpectedly stocked out. :lol:
wait... so now you're co-opting my argument?

re-read my replies to you on this.

what a turn of events!!!!
a fan
Posts: 17723
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:58 pm wait... so now you're co-opting my argument?

re-read my replies to you on this.

what a turn of events!!!!
:lol: No, although I like that you're giving me grief. I responding to your assertion that these "aren't widgets".

What I'm telling you is: it can very easily be the equivalent of a "widget" that's slowing things down. So, for example: the little glass vials. You don't need massive expertise to make those. What you need are materials and molds. Actual factories. Which is why I'm angry.


Tell you what: we're going to find out what the bottleneck is in the US for both Moderna and Pfizer sometime this year. I'll wager a bottle of my 5yo whiskey against....a bottle you get at the store....... that it's a "widget" that's in the way of far larger production.

In other words, something outside of the actual liquid vaccine is what's slowing things down. Vials. Syringes. Fillers. Refrigeration. Stuff that anyone can make.

You game?
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:34 pm I can really only speak in some detail about New Jersey. As to the other states, other than California where my daughter lives, all I know is what I read.

So as to New Jersey, I am convinced the problem is supply from the federal government. New Jersey has set up a number of mega sites throughout the state. Plus some (a comparative handful) of drug stores get the vaccine. (This is over and beyond vaccinations in hospitals administered to healthcare workers. From the conversations I’ve had in my doctors’ offices with doctors and staff, the vaccination of healthcare workers in New Jersey is well underway.)

The mega center in my town only gets enough vaccine to be operational for a certain number of hours a day (6-7-ish), nothing approaching 24/7 which they are geared up to do. Now, in fairness, this site has only been open one week. Maybe the site will be getting more vaccine down the road, but that would mean, I suspect, that the state’s supply would increase as well. Don’t know about that.

I have not been inside the site yet which is in a closed department store (I’ve been in the space when the store was open), but I have seen two somewhat lengthy videos of the operation. The one I saw today had vaccine station signs throughout. I saw one sign that said vaccine station number 18. So they have at least 18 stations, maybe more.

When I was lucky enough to get an email saying I could sign up for an appointment, the appointments that were available only covered six or seven hours per day.

The governor happened to be at the site today, and he said on camera that the problem in New Jersey is supply. Everything I have seen suggests that is correct.

I have no doubt that, as elsewhere, the drug stores in New Jersey could administer vaccinations if they had the vaccine. That’s where a lot of people get their flu shots, including me. But there simply isn’t enough vaccine to go to all of the drugstores. So only a comparatively few are currently available to vaccinate people.

Appointments are hard to come by. You have to register on both the state site and then, separately, on the site of the specific venue where you want to get vaccinated. Then you have to wait for that venue to send you an email saying appointment slots are available.

I know quite a number of people who simply haven’t been able to get an appointment. I suspect that the sites are limiting the number of appointments both in terms of the number per day and how far out in the future they are going because of concerns about future availability of vaccine. My doctor told me yesterday that the mega side in my town is now making appointments into March.

My appointment is February 15. I hope it holds, but have seen stories about appointments being canceled in New Jersey and elsewhere. I don’t know what the procedure is for scheduling my second shot. I’ve written a few times about questions on the window for the second shot. Well, now we are hearing that it is at least two or three weeks following the first shot. Not surprising, at least to me.

I heard another thing today of interest. My daughter is a psychologist in California. Luckily for her (and me as her father) psychologists have been added to the list of healthcare providers in California eligible to get the vaccination. She got her first shot today at Dodger Stadium. Had an appointment, which really just turned out to be a crowd control mechanism, for 9:40. Got the vaccination at 10:30. Not bad all things considered. She got the Moderna vaccine and was told to come back in three weeks. I asked her why three weeks since we have been told the waiting period for Moderna is four weeks. She said that that is what she was told. She confirmed that with a friend in the medical field who is administering vaccinations at Mass General. Apparently that’s what they are doing at MGH. (Moderna=3 weeks). Hadn’t heard that before. Haven’t read anything about it. I’ll just pass that along for what it is worth.

My sense is that there is blame both on the federal and state level to go around. It seems the states were not ready to hit the ground running with the logistics of sites where vaccinations would actually be administered. Maybe they were waiting to pull the trigger until the vaccines have been approved.

I know you guys are extensively debating the supply issues. My two cents is that manufacturers knew last summer (June, July, August at the latest?) what the vaccines were going to be because they were putting them into peoples arms in trials. So, they could have been mass manufacturing them since last summer, subject to shelflife issues. A country that could manufacture enough military equipment to defeat the Japanese at the Battle of Midway six months after Pearl Harbor using technology from 80 years ago can’t mass manufacturer vaccines in that amount of time? Doesn’t sound right to me.
new jersey has been given 951,875 doses and administered 490,677. the governor would do well to worry about getting more than half the shots they're given daily to his citizens.

nationwide, we've done 1.6, 1.3 and 1.4 million the last 3 days. maybe we're getting the hang of it and in 2, 3 or 4 weeks the governors can complain about supply.
njbill
Posts: 6835
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:35 am

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

Don’t know where you get those numbers, but I’ll assume for the sake of argument that they are correct.

Obviously New Jersey, and any state, wouldn’t be expected to fully exhaust its vaccine supply every day so that, at the end of the day, the number of doses given to the state and the number administered are the same.

What is a reasonable amount to keep in stock to have available for the next, say, four weeks administration regimen? Don’t know, but I just tried to do a rough calculation. Using the announced vaccination capabilities at the six Mega Center sites in New Jersey, based on your numbers, the difference between “given” and “administered” would be about a two or three week supply. And that doesn’t include hospitals and drug stores, so really the available number would cover a shorter period than that.

I am fully confident in what I said in my above post. New Jersey has much greater current capacity to administer vaccinations then they are able to actually do largely, if not entirely, due to vaccine shortage.

Yes, many of us here like to bash T****, but this is a situation where the bashing seems to be on the money. I’ve seen reports that the shelflife of the vaccine is six months. The vaccine that was used for trials was made more than six months ago. So manufacturing could have proceeded at full capacity since the summer. Might some go bad? Maybe. So what? Would you rather pour a month of spoiled vaccine down the drain or have a month supply now to administer to people?

As a fan has noted, we don’t know what the component shortage or shortages are in the manufacturing process. But surely the manufacturers do. Surely the T**** administration did. Did they invoke the DPA to address the shortages? No. Then they didn’t do all that they could have done to manufacture vaccine.

And that doesn’t even get into the issue of expanding facilities, converting facilities, or building new facilities. Would that be a big deal? You bet. Would it take time? Yes, but we’ve had six months. And the cost benefit analysis is pretty obvious.
6x6
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by 6x6 »

njbill wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:34 pm
I heard another thing today of interest. My daughter is a psychologist in California. Luckily for her (and me as her father) psychologists have been added to the list of healthcare providers in California eligible to get the vaccination. She got her first shot today at Dodger Stadium. Had an appointment, which really just turned out to be a crowd control mechanism, for 9:40. Got the vaccination at 10:30. Not bad all things considered. She got the Moderna vaccine and was told to come back in three weeks.
Your daughter received the vaccination in less than an hour, that’s great. Curious that they just told her to come back. The lucky folks in my area who are receiving the first shot are being given another date and appointment for the second shot.

Could the national news be exaggerating the problem to some degree or are some being given special treatment. Last night on the CBS evening news they did a piece about the lines at Dodger stadium stating people there, with appointments, are having to wait 5 hours in their cars to get the shot. Coincidentally, I saw today Arnold Schwarzenegger also went to the stadium and received his shot. Seriously doubt he would have waited in his Hummer for 5 hours.
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:47 pm Don’t know where you get those numbers, but I’ll assume for the sake of argument that they are correct.

Obviously New Jersey, and any state, wouldn’t be expected to fully exhaust its vaccine supply every day so that, at the end of the day, the number of doses given to the state and the number administered are the same.

What is a reasonable amount to keep in stock to have available for the next, say, four weeks administration regimen? Don’t know, but I just tried to do a rough calculation. Using the announced vaccination capabilities at the six Mega Center sites in New Jersey, based on your numbers, the difference between “given” and “administered” would be about a two or three week supply. And that doesn’t include hospitals and drug stores, so really the available number would cover a shorter period than that.

I am fully confident in what I said in my above post. New Jersey has much greater current capacity to administer vaccinations then they are able to actually do largely, if not entirely, due to vaccine shortage.

Yes, many of us here like to bash T****, but this is a situation where the bashing seems to be on the money. I’ve seen reports that the shelflife of the vaccine is six months. The vaccine that was used for trials was made more than six months ago. So manufacturing could have proceeded at full capacity since the summer. Might some go bad? Maybe. So what? Would you rather pour a month of spoiled vaccine down the drain or have a month supply now to administer to people?

As a fan has noted, we don’t know what the component shortage or shortages are in the manufacturing process. But surely the manufacturers do. Surely the T**** administration did. Did they invoke the DPA to address the shortages? No. Then they didn’t do all that they could have done to manufacture vaccine.

And that doesn’t even get into the issue of expanding facilities, converting facilities, or building new facilities. Would that be a big deal? You bet. Would it take time? Yes, but we’ve had six months. And the cost benefit analysis is pretty obvious.
now everyone is a vaccine manufacturing expert? how am i supposed to respond to this? you're obviously right even though you have no idea what lipid capacity is even with 12 month lead time? what is lipid capacity, by the way?

new jersey is sitting on 450 thousand doses. for over a month, they have administered less than 500 thousand. so they would not have to exhaust their capacity every day. or anywhere. close.

it looks like to me unless we get surprised to the upside, the supply we are getting now is what we'll be getting from now until april. plus or minus. so new jersey really only needs to figure out how to get what's likely their 1/35th share out to the people every day.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 32144
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

“You lucky I ain’t read wretched yet!”
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

a fan wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:13 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:58 pm wait... so now you're co-opting my argument?

re-read my replies to you on this.

what a turn of events!!!!
:lol: No, although I like that you're giving me grief. I responding to your assertion that these "aren't widgets".

What I'm telling you is: it can very easily be the equivalent of a "widget" that's slowing things down. So, for example: the little glass vials. You don't need massive expertise to make those. What you need are materials and molds. Actual factories. Which is why I'm angry.


Tell you what: we're going to find out what the bottleneck is in the US for both Moderna and Pfizer sometime this year. I'll wager a bottle of my 5yo whiskey against....a bottle you get at the store....... that it's a "widget" that's in the way of far larger production.

In other words, something outside of the actual liquid vaccine is what's slowing things down. Vials. Syringes. Fillers. Refrigeration. Stuff that anyone can make.

You game?
let's goooo!!!!
njbill
Posts: 6835
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:35 am

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

6x6 wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:03 pm
njbill wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:34 pm
I heard another thing today of interest. My daughter is a psychologist in California. Luckily for her (and me as her father) psychologists have been added to the list of healthcare providers in California eligible to get the vaccination. She got her first shot today at Dodger Stadium. Had an appointment, which really just turned out to be a crowd control mechanism, for 9:40. Got the vaccination at 10:30. Not bad all things considered. She got the Moderna vaccine and was told to come back in three weeks.
Your daughter received the vaccination in less than an hour, that’s great. Curious that they just told her to come back. The lucky folks in my area who are receiving the first shot are being given another date and appointment for the second shot.

Could the national news be exaggerating the problem to some degree or are some being given special treatment. Last night on the CBS evening news they did a piece about the lines at Dodger stadium stating people there, with appointments, are having to wait 5 hours in their cars to get the shot. Coincidentally, I saw today Arnold Schwarzenegger also went to the stadium and received his shot. Seriously doubt he would have waited in his Hummer for 5 hours.
Glad I hadn’t heard the five hour wait story. She told me that she could either make a reservation or just show up. She decided to make a reservation, although as I said, it sounds like that was just for purposes of moderating the traffic flow. I suspect when she goes back for her second shot, she will go earlier in the day. Doesn’t sound like the appointment times are all that meaningful at this venue. Just a guess.

She had been to this site several times previously to get tested. Her wait times had varied, although I think they were always less than an hour.

I didn’t mention this to her because she isn’t a baseball fan, but I found myself wondering how many home runs Hank hit at Dodger Stadium?
a fan
Posts: 17723
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:11 pm now everyone is a vaccine manufacturing expert? how am i supposed to respond to this?
By listening! Did you come here for other opinions, or not?

Look. I'm not a medical researcher. You got me on that point, obviously. But I am in manufacturing, albeit at a fairly laughable scale in terms of American manufacturing.

I'm trying to tell you how it is: it is RARELY the thing you are trying to sell that's the issue in the manufacturing world.

Want another interesting example? I had to delay a shipment of malt because we didn't have wooden pallets on hand that met the FDA standard that we could put the malt on. The pallets we had on hand were above 14% moisture, so we couldn't use them legally. Malt was ready to go. No pallets. :lol:

I'm telling you that the odds that the issue is the production of the liquid vaccine itself, and nothing else..... are very low.


What is setting off my alarm bells is that non one can tell us what the maximum capacity is for Pfizer and Moderna. And no one can tell us what the bottleneck is. Heck, it could be the sand needed to make the glass. :lol:
njbill
Posts: 6835
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:35 am

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:11 pm now everyone is a vaccine manufacturing expert? how am i supposed to respond to this? you're obviously right even though you have no idea what lipid capacity is even with 12 month lead time? what is lipid capacity, by the way?

new jersey is sitting on 450 thousand doses. for over a month, they have administered less than 500 thousand. so they would not have to exhaust their capacity every day. or anywhere. close.

it looks like to me unless we get surprised to the upside, the supply we are getting now is what we'll be getting from now until april. plus or minus. so new jersey really only needs to figure out how to get what's likely their 1/35th share out to the people every day.
Haha. Yes, we are all experts. At least on this forum. Don’t know what lipid capacity is, so I googled it. Found an article from May of last year that discussed Moderna’s attempt to enter deals to increase its lipid capacity. May of last year. Eight months ago. Don’t know if this component is slowing down production, but seems pretty clear they knew eight months ago they would need to gear up on what they needed to make vaccine.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2340RO

Don’t know your basis for saying New Jersey has sat on 450,000 doses for over a month. From what the governor said today, they are getting fairly regular deliveries so it seems unlikely, if not untrue, that they have had that much excess capacity from a month ago.

The numbers I gave you are reasonably accurate, although in fairness, the six mega sites have just recently all gotten up and running. New Jersey did not have that capacity a month ago or even two weeks ago.

But my point is that New Jersey has the capacity to vaccinate right now that seems to well exceed the supply it is currently getting and, if your prediction is correct, will be getting over the next several months.

FWIW, my cousin told me a friend of his just got an appointment to be vaccinated in Camden on June 25! Geez.
6x6
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:30 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by 6x6 »

Njbill, Well now you piqued my curiosity. I knew Hank hit the historic #715 in Atlanta off Dodger Al Downing but you made me wonder. Probably more than any other league, baseball keeps stats. Just a quick look said he hit 95 homers against the Dodgers, second only to Willie Mays but doesn’t specify how many were hit at Dodger Stadium. Upon further reflection, Dodger Stadium wasn’t built until the early sixties, so some of those 95 came before it was opened....hmmm. :lol:

On another note, I got to meet the great man and be a fly on the wall a couple other times. What a gentleman despite the hell he had to endure.
Last edited by 6x6 on Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

a fan wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:43 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:11 pm now everyone is a vaccine manufacturing expert? how am i supposed to respond to this?
By listening! Did you come here for other opinions, or not?

Look. I'm not a medical researcher. You got me on that point, obviously. But I am in manufacturing, albeit at a fairly laughable scale in terms of American manufacturing.

I'm trying to tell you how it is: it is RARELY the thing you are trying to sell that's the issue in the manufacturing world.

Want another interesting example? I had to delay a shipment of malt because we didn't have wooden pallets on hand that met the FDA standard that we could put the malt on. The pallets we had on hand were above 14% moisture, so we couldn't use them legally. Malt was ready to go. No pallets. :lol:

I'm telling you that the odds that the issue is the production of the liquid vaccine itself, and nothing else..... are very low.


What is setting off my alarm bells is that non one can tell us what the maximum capacity is for Pfizer and Moderna. And no one can tell us what the bottleneck is. Heck, it could be the sand needed to make the glass. :lol:
i listen fine. when folks say this could've been done bc i say so, i'm going to question that at times. sorry, in my nature. if you put a caveat on it, i likely won't even respond.

here's vials:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -meet-goal
they seem fine.

catalent does 7 billion finish and fill per year (moderna). i have actually seen about 100 articles from insiders on this stuff.

here's one article on getting things done. i could pass dozens if you'd like:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nd-labor1/

some of it is money and want to. sone if it is limited to actual resources that may/may not be able to be mined any sooner than we have vaccines avail from other vectors.

there's no longstanding (or really any) success for mrna. we happened to have those 2 come thru and be way more successful than anyone dreamed. they got billions to do it.

back in the day(may or june), could i envision most science experts thought a vaccine would be marginally successful, if we could even find one? yes. that's with hundreds to choose from. so what would their rec be in that case? front 20 billion for 30 vaccines? i highly doubt it.

i think we're all going a little crazy on a daily timeline. it's a pandemic!!!
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

njbill wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:52 pm
wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:11 pm now everyone is a vaccine manufacturing expert? how am i supposed to respond to this? you're obviously right even though you have no idea what lipid capacity is even with 12 month lead time? what is lipid capacity, by the way?

new jersey is sitting on 450 thousand doses. for over a month, they have administered less than 500 thousand. so they would not have to exhaust their capacity every day. or anywhere. close.

it looks like to me unless we get surprised to the upside, the supply we are getting now is what we'll be getting from now until april. plus or minus. so new jersey really only needs to figure out how to get what's likely their 1/35th share out to the people every day.
Haha. Yes, we are all experts. At least on this forum. Don’t know what lipid capacity is, so I googled it. Found an article from May of last year that discussed Moderna’s attempt to enter deals to increase its lipid capacity. May of last year. Eight months ago. Don’t know if this component is slowing down production, but seems pretty clear they knew eight months ago they would need to gear up on what they needed to make vaccine.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2340RO

Don’t know your basis for saying New Jersey has sat on 450,000 doses for over a month. From what the governor said today, they are getting fairly regular deliveries so it seems unlikely, if not untrue, that they have had that much excess capacity from a month ago.

The numbers I gave you are reasonably accurate, although in fairness, the six mega sites have just recently all gotten up and running. New Jersey did not have that capacity a month ago or even two weeks ago.

But my point is that New Jersey has the capacity to vaccinate right now that seems to well exceed the supply it is currently getting and, if your prediction is correct, will be getting over the next several months.

FWIW, my cousin told me a friend of his just got an appointment to be vaccinated in Camden on June 25! Geez.
if you're interested in this stuff, bloomberg has a good tracker for it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covi ... tribution/

nj hasn't been sitting on it for a month, it's been building about every day. every day almost they get more in than they vaccinate.

from a "demand" side... yes, there is more than appointments being made. is there more demand than daily supply (not just distribution)? probably. but when you only innoculate 1/2 the supply you actually get, it's tough to lay it on supply.

are they holding back for 2nd shots? not getting transparency several weeks out? probably yes to both. what would help is not changing ish up every other day from the feds. and having manufacturers give a 2 and 3 week production expectation.

then just give a population pro rata to each state. why are we making it so complicated? but i'm just a yahoo on fanlax.

i would bet your cousin's friend gets moved up.
wgdsr
Posts: 9471
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

brian williams just said less than 1% of the population has been innoculated. have the states and the cdc been lying to us?

maybe no one really can get an appointment!
njbill
Posts: 6835
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:35 am

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by njbill »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:38 pm if you're interested in this stuff, bloomberg has a good tracker for it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covi ... tribution/

nj hasn't been sitting on it for a month, it's been building about every day. every day almost they get more in than they vaccinate.

from a "demand" side... yes, there is more than appointments being made. is there more demand than daily supply (not just distribution)? probably. but when you only innoculate 1/2 the supply you actually get, it's tough to lay it on supply.

are they holding back for 2nd shots? not getting transparency several weeks out? probably yes to both. what would help is not changing ish up every other day from the feds. and having manufacturers give a 2 and 3 week production expectation.

then just give a population pro rata to each state. why are we making it so complicated? but i'm just a yahoo on fanlax.

i would bet your cousin's friend gets moved up.
Maybe I’m not navigating your site correctly, or maybe you have been following NJ ins and outs over the last month, but I don’t see where you get historic daily doses delivered and administered.

In any event, I’m not all that interested in the past. I am more interested in going forward. I remain comfortable with the projections I gave you that the doses on hand would be used up in two or three weeks. Of course, that does not take into account additional doses delivered. My point is that I don’t think it’s unreasonable for New Jersey to have a two or three week cushion.

And, as I have said, New Jersey has in the last week or so dramatically ramped up their capabilities. Will there be a concomitant dramatic ramping up in the doses we get? If I understand what you are saying, that doesn’t seem likely.

Again, right now in New Jersey (and apparently elsewhere) it is very difficult to get an appointment. Demand is high. Capacity to administer doses is much greater than the ability to do so because of lack of supply.

And this is just with the over 65s and those with underlying conditions. What is going to happen when they open things up to everybody? My view is that the mega centers will need to operate 24/7 and all of the drugstores will need to get product. Right now New Jersey isn’t getting enough doses to warrant delivering them to all state drug stores or running the mega centers 24/7.

I have not heard anything about whether New Jersey is holding back second doses. I hope they are holding back at least one. ;)

I have been thinking about driving over to the mega Center where hopefully I will get vaccinated and peppering them with lots of questions. Probably better that I don’t do that though.
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:03 pm here's one article on getting things done. i could pass dozens if you'd like:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nd-labor1/
Ummmm......this article repeats what I've been saying: they didn't build the needed facilities to produce the finished vaccine in the summer and fall.



According to a November report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), much of what is needed to produce these vaccines is in short supply. During interviews with GOA staff, manufacturing plant personnel described challenges in obtaining reagents and certain chemicals, as well as glass vials, syringes and other hardware. They also cited a shortage of “fill and finish” facilities where vaccine doses are loaded into sterile containers and a dearth of workers with the specialized skills needed to run mRNA production processes
wgdsr
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Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

a fan wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:16 am
wgdsr wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:03 pm here's one article on getting things done. i could pass dozens if you'd like:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... nd-labor1/
Ummmm......this article repeats what I've been saying: they didn't build the needed facilities to produce the finished vaccine in the summer and fall.



According to a November report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), much of what is needed to produce these vaccines is in short supply. During interviews with GOA staff, manufacturing plant personnel described challenges in obtaining reagents and certain chemicals, as well as glass vials, syringes and other hardware. They also cited a shortage of “fill and finish” facilities where vaccine doses are loaded into sterile containers and a dearth of workers with the specialized skills needed to run mRNA production processes
i was hoping you'd pull out the piece or 2 that you liked.

get some production out there!!!
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