All Things China

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tech37
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Re: All Things China

Post by tech37 »

Trinity wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:21 pmRuhroh.
Geez, Rapaport is a piece of work :?
Farfromgeneva
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Re: All Things China

Post by Farfromgeneva »

The guy is hilarious. Listen to his podcast
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That ain't even the half what they might do
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a fan
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Re: All Things China

Post by a fan »

Deleted. Wrong thread.
Last edited by a fan on Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All Things China

Post by a fan »

tech37 wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:18 pm
a fan wrote: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:03 pm
thatsmell wrote: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:33 pm Is normalizing the oppressive behavior of the Chinese a good thing for the globe?
China is hardly the only bad actor out there.

I don't see how stopping all trade with China will get them to become more liberal. Can you?
Once again a fan, you go to the extreme to make your argument.

Who has advocated stopping all trade with China? Who has advocated a Cold War as an option?
I'm not going to an extreme. What do you or thatsmell propose we do to keep America from "normalizing the oppressive behavior of the Chinese"?

I'm all ears. My argument is that Free Trade has, and will continue to, liberalize the Chinese people.

What do YOU propose we do?
tech37
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Re: All Things China

Post by tech37 »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:58 pm The guy is hilarious. Listen to his podcast
I've heard him on Stern. He can be funny but in small doses thank you. ;)
tech37
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Re: All Things China

Post by tech37 »

a fan wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:06 pm
tech37 wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:18 pm
a fan wrote: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:03 pm
thatsmell wrote: Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:33 pm Is normalizing the oppressive behavior of the Chinese a good thing for the globe?
China is hardly the only bad actor out there.

I don't see how stopping all trade with China will get them to become more liberal. Can you?
Once again a fan, you go to the extreme to make your argument.

Who has advocated stopping all trade with China? Who has advocated a Cold War as an option?
I'm not going to an extreme. What do you or thatsmell propose we do to keep America from "normalizing the oppressive behavior of the Chinese"?

I'm all ears. My argument is that Free Trade has, and will continue to, liberalize the Chinese people.

What do YOU propose we do?
"Stopping all trade" is not extreme? Starting a "Cold War" is not extreme? Sheesh...

"This entire time I've been begging US officials---and Trump in particular----to send US trade reps and business reps all over the globe looking for new supply chains and customers.

They do that? Not only will my complaints disappear......you'll get what you want, which is the cessation of trade with China, while doing the least amount of economic damage to America as possible. THAT is the path."


I like your quote above from the other thread but "cessation" is an extreme measure unless of course the Chicoms refuse to get in line with the rest of the free market world.

I highly doubt it would come to that because they do need us (especially us, their largest market) after all. As their supply chains diminish and companies continue to move elsewhere, they will finally realize they must start playing by the rules.

Also...when you say "we've known about China's bad acting for 20 years" I agree and disagree. China has not been headlined like the past couple years, not since Tiananmen Square. That's because Trump broke the ice on trade, bigly. He breaks stuff and in this case I think it is an excellent start.

Sure, since China joined WTO, the free market world has realized what cheaters/parasites they are, but neither Bush nor BHO did squat. Trump has done much, simply based on prioritizing the problem, bringing it front and center. Everyone else was just afraid because China is such a behemoth, with so much money and effects on our economy at stake. It's risky, but IMO a risk worth taking. Do we have a choice? When Trump is gone (one way or another) someone has to carry on holding China responsible.
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Re: All Things China

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tech37 wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:18 pm "Stopping all trade" is not extreme? Starting a "Cold War" is not extreme? Sheesh...
Sorry, just saw this.

Rick Santelli, CNBC anchor, financial wonk, and card carrying conservative, just laid out my case for me.

He pegged US GDP at 1.8% in the next quarter.

China is at 6% growth.

He asked " which side of the negotiating table would YOU rather be on?"

China is holding all the cards. Not to mention, once again, that China doesn't have elections.


Honest to goodness, I'm not trying to pick a fight, or hit at Trump. I'm calmly and politely telling you that China will not give up IP theft. Period. There is no reason for them to do that. There is no motivation for them to do that. The US trade deficit with China is worse, not better since Trump started this.

The US economy is slowing, dangerously teetering on the edge of a recession....and because Trump and our Fed are idiots, what can we do to get the economy going if we hit a recession? We already borrowed $3Trillion and heavily cut taxes with the idea that GDP would sail past 4%. I told you that we would never get anywhere close to a sustained 4%+ GDP growth, and I was right, of course. Not because I'm brilliant...but because I can add and subtract. And now that we've blown all that money......what happens when a real economic problem arrives, and we're out of arrows in the quiver?

So-----back to what you said you wanted. You want 1) an end to the IP theft practices of China, and 2) you want to stop sending China money that will build their armies via a trade imbalance, correct?

I'm politely telling you that that will not happen at the negotiating table. The only way to accomplish the two goals you want to achieve is to stop trade with China all together, and revoke Chinese Visas. A Cold war. I'm not exaggerating. I'm telling you what it would take.

If you don't believe, me, tune in to CNBC, Bloomberg, the WSJ, or any other business outlet that discusses business with China. They'll tell you the same thing. The only other way out of this is for China, as I have said, to offer some silly deal to Trump in order to get things back to status quo. That is not only what every financial talking head is hoping for....it's what they are expecting.
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Re: All Things China

Post by jhu72 »

More Trumpsucking. Trump has done nothing regarding IP theft. It is still occurring. IP theft is a back burner issue now because of Trump and his authoritarian buddies. Authoritarians don't recognize IP ownership.
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youthathletics
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Re: All Things China

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a fan wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:04 pm Honest to goodness, I'm not trying to pick a fight, or hit at Trump. I'm calmly and politely telling you that China will not give up IP theft. Period. There is no reason for them to do that. There is no motivation for them to do that. The US trade deficit with China is worse, not better since Trump started this.

So-----back to what you said you wanted. You want 1) an end to the IP theft practices of China, and 2) you want to stop sending China money that will build their armies via a trade imbalance, correct?

I'm politely telling you that that will not happen at the negotiating table. The only way to accomplish the two goals you want to achieve is to stop trade with China all together, and revoke Chinese Visas. A Cold war. I'm not exaggerating. I'm telling you what it would take.
Why do you believe it has to be both, at the same time, and the result will be a cold war.

Turn off the attack mode for a moment, this is what Trump is 'trying' pr 'dreaming' to do, IMHO. Maybe it is far too aggressive, completely irrational and undeniably impossible??? He believes or is playing a wasteful game, that we can manufacture and supply our own country with the same crap we purchase from China....certainly is will cost us a bit more. However, he has attempted to pump money into manufacturing, eased business regulations and red tape, in an attempt to create incentive to stay here in the USA.

Are we too far gone here in the US for this work, has China monopolized that market, do we just surrender that Americans are too selfish and just want more things and stuff for cheap.

I honestly feel like history needs to repeat itself, in the area where we have never seen history repeat itself...and that is where being a minimalist was just fine, where extra stuff did not rule our wallet. Where a trip to walmart was for milk and bread and not 2 new 60" flatscreen tv's and a 20-pack of DVD's that never get opened. I suppose I am too old fashioned, even though I still have a dozen + years left before I retire.

Maybe that is why I am pro-Trump at this time....I believe we need to invest more in our country and not heavily rely on others for crap goods that we really and honestly do not need. Maybe I'll change my mind as I get older, but I doubt it...I'm happy with a couple small meals, a good lax game, and campfire with a cigar and some whiskey...then off to bed.
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Re: All Things China

Post by a fan »

Checking in on the Trade War with China.....

U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge 24% on Strain From Trump Trade War



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f-SEKsKSvc
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Re: All Things China

Post by jhu72 »

a fan wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:32 pm Checking in on the Trade War with China.....

U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge 24% on Strain From Trump Trade War



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f-SEKsKSvc
$88 billion in income; $33 billion in federal aid. Ain't socialism great, when you're the one getting it.

Explain to me again who the makers and takers are.
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Re: All Things China

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jhu72 wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:57 pm $88 billion in income; $33 billion in federal aid. Ain't socialism great, when you're the one getting it.
Ask Pete Brown. He thinks the expensive socialism Warren is talking about is crazy....but this kind of socialism is super cool.

I cannot fathom getting this much direct government assistance. At the above ratio or revenue to handout, the .gov would be cutting my brother and I a 7 figure check every 12 months.

Free market for you, socialism for me.
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Re: All Things China

Post by seacoaster »

A friend sent this me, and I found it pretty informative (although I am totally out of my depth on this sort of issue):

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ring-china

"The question, then, is not whether a struggling rising power will expand abroad but what form that expansion will take. The answer depends in part on the structure of the global economy. How open are foreign markets? How safe are international trade routes? If circumstances allow it, a slowing great power might be able to rejuvenate its economy through peaceful trade and investment, as Japan tried to do after its postwar economic miracle came to an end in the 1970s. If that path is closed, however, then the country in question may have to push its way into foreign markets or secure critical resources by force—as Japan did in the 1930s. The global economy is more open today than in previous eras, but a global rise in protectionism and the trade war with the United States increasingly threaten China’s access to foreign markets and resources. China’s leaders fear, with good reason, that the era of hyperglobalization that enabled their country’s rise is over.

The structure of a country’s home economy will further shape its response to a slowdown. The Chinese government owns many of the country’s major firms, and those firms substantially influence the state. For this reason, the government will go to great lengths to shield companies from foreign competition and help them conquer overseas markets when profits dry up at home. A state-led economy like China’s is unlikely to liberalize during a slowdown. Doing so would require eliminating subsidies and protections for state-favored firms, reforms that risk instigating a surge in bankruptcies, unemployment, and popular resentment. Liberalization also could disrupt the crony capitalist networks that the regime depends on for survival. Instead, regimes like China’s usually resort to mercantilist expansion, using money and muscle to carve out exclusive economic zones abroad and divert popular anger toward foreign enemies. The most aggressive expanders of all tend to be authoritarian capitalist states, of which China is clearly a prime example."
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Re: All Things China

Post by youthathletics »

That is why I believe, and have stated on many occasions, that manufacturing in the U.S. is part and parcel to our continued strength and success. Set aside any partisan thinking and try to picture the world in 20 years. At some point China is there own worst enemy, they are like the crack dealer lurking on the corner after the middle school bell rings.....getting you hooked on crap you do not need.
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Re: All Things China

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youthathletics wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:05 am That is why I believe, and have stated on many occasions, that manufacturing in the U.S. is part and parcel to our continued strength and success. Set aside any partisan thinking and try to picture the world in 20 years. At some point China is there own worst enemy, they are like the crack dealer lurking on the corner after the middle school bell rings.....getting you hooked on dump you do not need.
The article (thankfully for me!!) was not data driven, but historical -- what faltering empires do. The interesting bit would now be to confirm through harder and more data that China has, in fact, squandered and stranded investment, that the one child policy together with mortality rates has created a deep trough, etc. I assume there is a desk at CIA that has accumulated the data and laid it across the veneer of history, to create a scarier-still scenario.

I know you want me to "set aside any partisan thinking," but something has to lurk in the background for the reader, right? If the author is correct, and the China inflection point is nearing, do we have an administration that is capable of using the experts and expertise available to game plan the next decade?
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Re: All Things China

Post by youthathletics »

seacoaster wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:16 am
youthathletics wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:05 am That is why I believe, and have stated on many occasions, that manufacturing in the U.S. is part and parcel to our continued strength and success. Set aside any partisan thinking and try to picture the world in 20 years. At some point China is there own worst enemy, they are like the crack dealer lurking on the corner after the middle school bell rings.....getting you hooked on dump you do not need.
I know you want me to "set aside any partisan thinking," but something has to lurk in the background for the reader, right? If the author is correct, and the China inflection point is nearing, do we have an administration that is capable of using the experts and expertise available to game plan the next decade?
That is the key, certainly. And that is why in the link of my last post, I believe this administration is attempting to plan for the next decade, there is vision for what is to come. It makes you wonder why is this administration really fighting with China right now....maybe the data shows that they (China) are cut and bleeding like a boxer (as the article you posted points out)...so let's expose them and keep punching.
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Re: All Things China

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Seems to me that reading that article as somehow a positive view of a future in which protectionism has constricted their continued growth in their citizens’ standard of living is flat foolishness.

Far more likely the response from China would be less liberalization, more aggressively mercantilist, more militaristic.

If anyone thinks that’s actually a positive future...

As to whether the Trump administration is ‘fighting’ with China because they have data that says China is ‘cut and bleeding’ rather than purely demagoguery, well I’ve got some swampland for sale...
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Re: All Things China

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Of course, there are very real issues to address, continuously with China, but the notion that we can force them to submit to our will is very misguided.

That doesn’t mean we should be passive. A fan is correct that we could be working much harder to open other trading relationships that could effectively compete with China, building alliances that encourage liberalization of economic and political systems around the world. And we could be doubling down on our own technology, infrastructure, and human capital investments, with a long term rather than election cycle view. On human capital this is our own primary and secondary education, as well as being welcoming to immigration.
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Re: All Things China

Post by seacoaster »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:47 am Seems to me that reading that article as somehow a positive view of a future in which protectionism has constricted their continued growth in their citizens’ standard of living is flat foolishness.

Far more likely the response from China would be less liberalization, more aggressively mercantilist, more militaristic.

If anyone thinks that’s actually a positive future...

As to whether the Trump administration is ‘fighting’ with China because they have data that says China is ‘cut and bleeding’ rather than purely demagoguery, well I’ve got some swampland for sale...
Concur with the statement in bold. I'm not convinced that the Administration is making much of a calculation based on data here. The President thinks it is popular to look tough on China. That is, all the data and policy is mortgaged to reelection and "equaling" Trump's bete noire.
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Re: All Things China

Post by youthathletics »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:00 am Of course, there are very real issues to address, continuously with China, but the notion that we can force them to submit to our will is very misguided.


Where in the heck did this comment come from?
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