All things CoronaVirus

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.

How many of your friends and family members have died of the Chinese Corona Virus?

0 people
43
63%
1 person.
10
15%
2 people.
3
4%
3 people.
5
7%
More.
7
10%
 
Total votes: 68

livelovelax
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Re: 2021 Schedule News

Post by livelovelax »

510 of 329593 is actually .0015 and how many are athletes? How many of the 510 had pre conditions or died from something else but their death was coded as covid? The point is, the Ivies are shutting down for what good, common sense, data driven reason?
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

kramerica.inc wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 3:26 pm
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:01 pm Crazy to think how many American lives could have been/be saved if IMPOTUS o d was not involved...

Vaccine reserve was already exhausted when Trump administration vowed to release it, dashing hopes of expanded access
States were anticipating a windfall after federal officials said they would stop holding back second doses. But the approach had already changed, and no stockpile exists.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... e-used-up/
As recent as this summer and this fall, many people here thought there would be no vaccine by the New Year. I remember a lot of people here skewering Peter and others who thought the Holidays were a legit target to even HAVE a vaccine.

Now those same doubters are complaining because we have a vaccine and it's not 100% rolled out at the new year.

And what seems to be the issue? How much faster can they go? Here in MD we have already moved to stage 1b of rollout. And in NJ they have enough that they are now moving smokers to the front of the line.
Kram, can you find the posts by our dear departed Petey that only claimed that a few people would be vaccinated by the "Holidays" and that was "skewered" by others?

My recollection was that he said it would be rolled out in Sept/October, certainly before Nov 3rd. That was skewered as it was so obviously not feasible, or if they did do it, politics would have override the science, making it much harder to have confidence in the science.

The rest of us were all saying it would likely not be approved until later than that, and certainly not available to us (individually) before the end of the year. We were correct.

Which isn't to say that the vaccine development effort wasn't outstanding, a tremendous victory for the scientists.

I don't see anyone complaining it wasn't 100% rolled out to the public by the New Year...if you can find such a post, please point to it specifically.

The consternation is that the federal government had at least 6 months to thoroughly plan the distribution and vaccination process, adaptable to the timing of availability of supply, but a clear consistent, controlled end-to-end process. The Trump folks assured us that the "military" was handling this, so no worries. Some of us worried that the military had very little experience in public health, so other than physical support, why would they be in charge?

I can tell you that my 84 year old mother in Florida every day is trying to schedule an appointment...for ANYTIME, yet can't even get a human being to answer the phone much less schedule an appt. My 90 year old mother inlaw in Massachusetts in assisted living was told that her facility would be vaccinated before the end of the year (CVS partnership), then the week before it was scheduled, it was rescheduled to Jan 22..two confirmations of that date, then a couple of days ago, it was rescheduled to Jan 30...do they have confidence in that date, do you?

Clearly this is FUBAR.

This really shouldn't have been so difficult, though it DID require a large investment by the federal gov't in manpower and logistics that was never done. The Trump admin didn't WANT the responsibility, and to be really tough on it, they wanted to pretend the problem didn't exist...PR for Nov 3rd was the only priority for those with the capacity to drive that that responsibility forward with the necessary resources and will.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

youthathletics wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:57 am My goodness, trump could have solved world peace and you'd complain there's no ketchup for your steak. ;) :lol:
Come on, youth, you're just being "optimistic" again???

You're not really this all-in for Trump and his inept Administration are you?
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things Chinese CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

youthathletics wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:25 pm
jhu72 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:58 pm
kramerica.inc wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:43 pm
jhu72 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:40 pm
kramerica.inc wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:21 pm Sounds like many in the 1a category in MD have passed on the vaccine
The wife is a teacher and therefore phase 1b in MD. One email and she is already set for her appointment at the local health dept next week.
I'm in the phase 2 bracket as an "essential worker" per my job category. We shall see when that timeline hits.
We've been dealing with this for 9 mos. a 3-6 more mos. is doable. Regardless of the numbers or vaccination progress, things will likely open back up late spring and summer just like it did last year. My best bet is the "real" timeline for vaccinations to be more complete is fall 2021.
I think things will get a lot better as we head into late summer.

The 1b (Firefighter) I know went to the Timonium Fairgrounds for his shot.

There have been a lot of healthcare workers who have taken a pass. According to my wife, mostly African American (an understandable problem) and pregnant women of all races. In her organization the % is something like 20% taking a pass on it.
Howard Hospital near DC was having a real issue getting its POC medical workers taking the vaccine.
Yup. It is not just the AA community. Latino's are better, but there is still hesitancy in many according to my wife. The AA community has a bad history of being Guinea Pigs, but I suspect among healthcare workers AA and Latino, some (know one) are afraid their is a government plot due to Trump. There are conspiracy theories everywhere. Will see if that changes with Biden, his assurance. If you can't get the healthcare workers, good luck when it comes to the general population. Nice to be white.
Really....nice to be white, as if white trust the government....did you see what those crackers just did at the Capitol?
Fair enough that the QAnon sorts of white folks (not all are "crackers") don't trust the government, but it's not because they have valid, historical reasons to distrust the government when it comes to medical matters. Horrifyingly, folks of color really do have such reasons. And yeah, in that respect it's "nice to be white".
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youthathletics
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by youthathletics »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:41 am
youthathletics wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:57 am My goodness, trump could have solved world peace and you'd complain there's no ketchup for your steak. ;) :lol:
Come on, youth, you're just being "optimistic" again???

You're not really this all-in for Trump and his inept Administration are you?
Of course not, but there are other options other than just black and white on topics.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

youthathletics wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:00 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:41 am
youthathletics wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:57 am My goodness, trump could have solved world peace and you'd complain there's no ketchup for your steak. ;) :lol:
Come on, youth, you're just being "optimistic" again???

You're not really this all-in for Trump and his inept Administration are you?
Of course not, but there are other options other than just black and white on topics.
I quite agree. But then acknowledge the nuances, including where they've blown this and why, if you think there's a nuanced explanation people are missing. Don't go hard the opposite way if you think folks are missing the nuance.

At least, that's my opinion...and what I try to do, at least most of the time.
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
6x6
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by 6x6 »

CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

6x6 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
How about we can "walk and chew gum at the same time".

Seems to me that recognizing the hole we're in, how we got here, the difficulties associated given the disappointing failures that will be the reality upon takeover, are all important as we think about the going forward parts.

Part of this is just asking people to FINALLY recognize that what our leaders in authority say, and do, matters.

Right now I'm skeptical about the goal of 100 million in 100 days, given this recent news that the reserves had already been shipped...the supply lines appear not as robust as we'd been led to think. So, maybe the hole is even deeper than we thought just a couple of weeks ago...and deeper than what the Biden folks may have been told...
tech37
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by tech37 »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:11 am
6x6 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
How about we can "walk and chew gum at the same time".

Seems to me that recognizing the hole we're in, how we got here, the difficulties associated given the disappointing failures that will be the reality upon takeover, are all important as we think about the going forward parts.
And until both sides recognize and admit that both sides are responsible for the hole we're in, nothing changes...and unfortunately, may get worse.
wgdsr
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

a) i expected a chaotic rollout. especially as we heard that healthcare workers were getting it first. identifying that pop vs. an age group was going to lead to this. i expect similar issues throughout if we attempt to similarly stratify populations. is the vaers system going to be more workable? how about those folks that aren't tech savvy capable or accessible?
b) i did not want trump within a thousand miles of distribution. my non-educated guess is he had/has as much to do with a preferred rollout as with vaccine funding and development. could there have been a much better collaboration with states? the answer is of course (but not surprising) , and a lot of that lies on the wh admin and a decent chunk on congress.
c) i want hhs, fda and cdc to be handling a lot of the big picture stuff. do they have a lot of a+ logistics folks? my guess is no. if there was one thing i would hindsight laser focus on, it would be that. public/private partnership, whatever whoever could take those reins. that would've entailed being prepped well ahead for all eventualities and a very large task. so still there would've been myriad problems.
d) the second dose thing creates a 10x problem. i'm decent at numbers, and having thought about it dozens of ways, i still don't have an answer. something maybe for the cray supercomputer. maybe the only solution is to not worry about it if folks couldn't get on time. the fda to date has been unwilling to do that, and maybe that will change.
e) i didn't take azar's comments tue and fri as off the rails. what it looks like is
-- they had made the decision some time prior to do what they did... and didn't announce publicly. by production levels, it's several days worth.
-- it's more than possible states weren't clued in early enough. however, 2 things about that. in general, states have loads of vaccine not in arms. hhs probably took that into account. there have been numerous scale downs since even after approval for the vaxxes on production, and maybe just recently it's going in the other direction. so possibly for a month or more the states will have what they need if they can roll with the punches and changes as well.

2 things need to happen (actually more, this is a herculean task). logistics experts need to have the largest voice. and be clued in by the health guys on production, storage, manpower, etc.

and the groups of eligibles need to be simplified, as well as delivery sites. large, scale... parking lots, tents, etc.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

tech37 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:24 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:11 am
6x6 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
How about we can "walk and chew gum at the same time".

Seems to me that recognizing the hole we're in, how we got here, the difficulties associated given the disappointing failures that will be the reality upon takeover, are all important as we think about the going forward parts.
And until both sides recognize and admit that both sides are responsible for the hole we're in, nothing changes...and unfortunately, may get worse.
"both sides" of what?
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Brooklyn
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by Brooklyn »

tech37 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:24 am And until both sides recognize and admit that both sides are responsible for the hole we're in, nothing changes...and unfortunately, may get worse.

Kindly identify the other side and what specific role it has in the mess created by tRUMP.
It has been proven a hundred times that the surest way to the heart of any man, black or white, honest or dishonest, is through justice and fairness.

Charles Francis "Socker" Coe, Esq
tech37
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by tech37 »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:57 am
tech37 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:24 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:11 am
6x6 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
How about we can "walk and chew gum at the same time".

Seems to me that recognizing the hole we're in, how we got here, the difficulties associated given the disappointing failures that will be the reality upon takeover, are all important as we think about the going forward parts.
And until both sides recognize and admit that both sides are responsible for the hole we're in, nothing changes...and unfortunately, may get worse.
"both sides" of what?
As in the politicization of a disease.
a fan
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

tech37 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:24 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:11 am
6x6 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
How about we can "walk and chew gum at the same time".

Seems to me that recognizing the hole we're in, how we got here, the difficulties associated given the disappointing failures that will be the reality upon takeover, are all important as we think about the going forward parts.
And until both sides recognize and admit that both sides are responsible for the hole we're in, nothing changes...and unfortunately, may get worse.
If you're talking about vaccines? What do Democrats have to do with that?

The CDC is in the Executive Branch. This is 1000% on Trump. And as you remember, I haven't blamed Trump for the spread of the virus, because Trump can't control American culture. America isn't cut out for pandemics, and are unwilling to work together with government to fix things. So Americans like you and are to blame for this mess.

But the vaccine and the rollout is 100% on the leader of the executive branch. He gets paid to manage that Branch. You don't get to throw stones at Dem on this count.

And we talked about this over the summer-----what did we do to increase our ability to manufacture the vaccine? Have a look at Operation warp speed for yourself. We did next to nothing. One company made a small expansion to a larger plant that makes the vials. That's it.

So we're going to drag this stupid virus on for a freaking year, because we don't have one single leader anywhere in our Federal Government who understands mass production. It's just painful to watch. We blew trillions of dollars on this pandemic...and no one thought to ask "hey, where is our current vaccine manufacturing capacity, and what do we need to do to expand it 100 fold?

The worst part of all of this? We're not making any preparations for the next pandemic. Now THAT you can blame on Dems as well as Republicans.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

wgdsr wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:45 am a) i expected a chaotic rollout. especially as we heard that healthcare workers were getting it first. identifying that pop vs. an age group was going to lead to this. i expect similar issues throughout if we attempt to similarly stratify populations. is the vaers system going to be more workable? how about those folks that aren't tech savvy capable or accessible?
b) i did not want trump within a thousand miles of distribution. my non-educated guess is he had/has as much to do with a preferred rollout as with vaccine funding and development. could there have been a much better collaboration with states? the answer is of course (but not surprising) , and a lot of that lies on the wh admin and a decent chunk on congress.
c) i want hhs, fda and cdc to be handling a lot of the big picture stuff. do they have a lot of a+ logistics folks? my guess is no. if there was one thing i would hindsight laser focus on, it would be that. public/private partnership, whatever whoever could take those reins. that would've entailed being prepped well ahead for all eventualities and a very large task. so still there would've been myriad problems.
d) the second dose thing creates a 10x problem. i'm decent at numbers, and having thought about it dozens of ways, i still don't have an answer. something maybe for the cray supercomputer. maybe the only solution is to not worry about it if folks couldn't get on time. the fda to date has been unwilling to do that, and maybe that will change.
e) i didn't take azar's comments tue and fri as off the rails. what it looks like is
-- they had made the decision some time prior to do what they did... and didn't announce publicly. by production levels, it's several days worth.
-- it's more than possible states weren't clued in early enough. however, 2 things about that. in general, states have loads of vaccine not in arms. hhs probably took that into account. there have been numerous scale downs since even after approval for the vaxxes on production, and maybe just recently it's going in the other direction. so possibly for a month or more the states will have what they need if they can roll with the punches and changes as well.

2 things need to happen (actually more, this is a herculean task). logistics experts need to have the largest voice. and be clued in by the health guys on production, storage, manpower, etc.

and the groups of eligibles need to be simplified, as well as delivery sites. large, scale... parking lots, tents, etc.
I think I agree on 98% of this, and especially the leaning forward aspect, I hope the new Administration brings substantial additional talent to bear, and convinces Congress that funding is essential.

I guess my only nit, and probably isn't a disagreement, is that I do think the reason that this has been as big of a mess-up (I agree that mistakes were inevitable, challenge was really daunting) is that, from the top, from the Oval Office, there was never a commitment to expertise/science, never a commitment to the resources, never even an honest acknowledgment of the scale of the challenge...instead there was mostly denial and obfuscation. Even that a vaccine would be needed...

I'd like to think that the next Admin will do much, much better, but they certainly will likely have some stumbles of their own.

I agree that the two dose challenge is clearly much more complicated math, but these guys had many months of knowing that they needed to model that out, with adaptability being key. Not impossible. Also...don't overpromise... (I'm concerned about Biden's 100 million for instance).

But seems to me that there could have been a national registry for vaccine tracking and prioritization (we don't have a national health system to lean on, but again, we had many months to stand this up). Age, health issues, employment...any other factors? Get assigned classifications, prioritize nationally the supply to meet the density of those needing vaccination (other factor for that would be virus prevalence in a region), and then track each individual vaccination in the registry. Schedule based upon supply and priority #.

Recognize that not all who need to be reached will have a health provider entering their data or have ready access/awareness of digital, so have auxiliary programs to reach those populations and register them, track them, get the shots in arms.

Of course, this would all need to be 'war gamed' out granularly, including any gotchas I may have missed, but again, that's surely doable with a six month lead time.
wgdsr
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:11 am Right now I'm skeptical about the goal of 100 million in 100 days, given this recent news that the reserves had already been shipped...the supply lines appear not as robust as we'd been led to think. So, maybe the hole is even deeper than we thought just a couple of weeks ago...and deeper than what the Biden folks may have been told...
of course, 100 million is just a number. as is 100 days. it is good to have goals, and you need them.

i look at this differently. as good news. that originally, pfizer and moderna consistently coming back with cuts to projections led the hhs admin to be wary of ramping without problems. and maybe then the guidance on reserves.

silver lining category -- the lack of in arms distribution maybe in combo with ramp production paints a different setup. for now. eventually, if it's getting into arms as fast as production, you'll have to hold off on 1st shots when production levels.

as it stands, the last given estimates, if accurate, were:
- 50 mill distributed by end jan
- 100 mill distributed by end feb

the contract was to have 200 mill between the 2 of them by end mar. so that may be out.

however, the silver lining may be that if production works outnto be on the ramp:
- 10-15 mill in dec
- 35-40 mill in jan
- 50 mill in feb
- 60- 75? mill in mar?

then that will aid in being to be able to have 2nd shot avail throughout while consistently being able to add new takers. it actually helps to be ramping, especially if we do a better job as we go along in getting distribution into arms.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

tech37 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:03 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:57 am
tech37 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:24 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:11 am
6x6 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:04 am
CU88 wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:53 pm Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-v ... 1610737935

"We are rounding the corner..."

"It will go away by itself..."

"After Nov. 4th, no one will be talking about COVID..."

MAGA
I think we get it and agree. Trump is an a**#&@* and he along with the feds are to blame for the situation we are in. Yet, isn’t this old news by now, why keep beating a dead horse?

How about we look forward instead of bitching about what has already transpired. Hopefully, Biden will be able to deliver on his promise of 100 million shot in his first 100 days.
How about we can "walk and chew gum at the same time".

Seems to me that recognizing the hole we're in, how we got here, the difficulties associated given the disappointing failures that will be the reality upon takeover, are all important as we think about the going forward parts.
And until both sides recognize and admit that both sides are responsible for the hole we're in, nothing changes...and unfortunately, may get worse.
"both sides" of what?
As in the politicization of a disease.
what are the two "sides"?

I see those who denied it was a problem, the 'just another flu' crowd, those who thought it would go away by April, go away in sunlight, not return in the fall, no need to wear masks crowd...blame it on the Chinese crowd...

and those who thought it was deadly serious and needed to be addressed full-on with science and public health leading the way...sacrifices to normal life being necessary...

Should never have been a Red vs Blue thing, but that IMO was driven by a President who went all-in on the denial side of the ledger, fanned the flames of resistance against the science and public health recommendations.

But perhaps you see this differently?
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by a fan »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:17 pm I'd like to think that the next Admin will do much, much better, but they certainly will likely have some stumbles of their own.
Well, you know what's coming on this point, right? Anything short of performing flawlessly will be hilariously hammered by TrumpApologists.

That's going to be the game the next four years------instead of owning all the egg on their face, TrumpApologists will jump at anything Biden says or does that isn't from the hand of G8d himself.

They will have absolutely no shame in doing this.

The correct reaction to this, of course, is to laugh in their faces.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

a fan wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:23 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:17 pm I'd like to think that the next Admin will do much, much better, but they certainly will likely have some stumbles of their own.
Well, you know what's coming on this point, right? Anything short of performing flawlessly will be hilariously hammered by TrumpApologists.

That's going to be the game the next four years------instead of owning all the egg on their face, TrumpApologists will jump at anything Biden says or does that isn't from the hand of G8d himself.

They will have absolutely no shame in doing this.

The correct reaction to this, of course, is to laugh in their faces.
Over on the lacrosse threads, I've suggested that the rabid Hopkins faithful should be patient with Milliman and crew in their efforts to rejuvenate Hopkins winning ways. I made the same argument when Tiffany took over at UVA, don't expect miracles out of the chute. Be patient.

In both cases, there were, of course, fans of the former coaches who were sure to throw stones at any moves the new coaches made. Understandable, both former coaches were highly respected, to some beloved.

And indeed, Tiffany took some early flack from a number of moves in personnel, "culture", and aggressive style of play. Not all games were won...

Let's just say that as Americans we should hope that Biden and his team do as well as Tiffany and his team did for UVA fans!
wgdsr
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Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: All things CoronaVirus

Post by wgdsr »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 12:17 pm
wgdsr wrote: Sat Jan 16, 2021 11:45 am a) i expected a chaotic rollout. especially as we heard that healthcare workers were getting it first. identifying that pop vs. an age group was going to lead to this. i expect similar issues throughout if we attempt to similarly stratify populations. is the vaers system going to be more workable? how about those folks that aren't tech savvy capable or accessible?
b) i did not want trump within a thousand miles of distribution. my non-educated guess is he had/has as much to do with a preferred rollout as with vaccine funding and development. could there have been a much better collaboration with states? the answer is of course (but not surprising) , and a lot of that lies on the wh admin and a decent chunk on congress.
c) i want hhs, fda and cdc to be handling a lot of the big picture stuff. do they have a lot of a+ logistics folks? my guess is no. if there was one thing i would hindsight laser focus on, it would be that. public/private partnership, whatever whoever could take those reins. that would've entailed being prepped well ahead for all eventualities and a very large task. so still there would've been myriad problems.
d) the second dose thing creates a 10x problem. i'm decent at numbers, and having thought about it dozens of ways, i still don't have an answer. something maybe for the cray supercomputer. maybe the only solution is to not worry about it if folks couldn't get on time. the fda to date has been unwilling to do that, and maybe that will change.
e) i didn't take azar's comments tue and fri as off the rails. what it looks like is
-- they had made the decision some time prior to do what they did... and didn't announce publicly. by production levels, it's several days worth.
-- it's more than possible states weren't clued in early enough. however, 2 things about that. in general, states have loads of vaccine not in arms. hhs probably took that into account. there have been numerous scale downs since even after approval for the vaxxes on production, and maybe just recently it's going in the other direction. so possibly for a month or more the states will have what they need if they can roll with the punches and changes as well.

2 things need to happen (actually more, this is a herculean task). logistics experts need to have the largest voice. and be clued in by the health guys on production, storage, manpower, etc.

and the groups of eligibles need to be simplified, as well as delivery sites. large, scale... parking lots, tents, etc.
I think I agree on 98% of this, and especially the leaning forward aspect, I hope the new Administration brings substantial additional talent to bear, and convinces Congress that funding is essential.

I guess my only nit, and probably isn't a disagreement, is that I do think the reason that this has been as big of a mess-up (I agree that mistakes were inevitable, challenge was really daunting) is that, from the top, from the Oval Office, there was never a commitment to expertise/science, never a commitment to the resources, never even an honest acknowledgment of the scale of the challenge...instead there was mostly denial and obfuscation. Even that a vaccine would be needed...

I'd like to think that the next Admin will do much, much better, but they certainly will likely have some stumbles of their own.

I agree that the two dose challenge is clearly much more complicated math, but these guys had many months of knowing that they needed to model that out, with adaptability being key. Not impossible. Also...don't overpromise... (I'm concerned about Biden's 100 million for instance).

But seems to me that there could have been a national registry for vaccine tracking and prioritization (we don't have a national health system to lean on, but again, we had many months to stand this up). Age, health issues, employment...any other factors? Get assigned classifications, prioritize nationally the supply to meet the density of those needing vaccination (other factor for that would be virus prevalence in a region), and then track each individual vaccination in the registry. Schedule based upon supply and priority #.

Recognize that not all who need to be reached will have a health provider entering their data or have ready access/awareness of digital, so have auxiliary programs to reach those populations and register them, track them, get the shots in arms.

Of course, this would all need to be 'war gamed' out granularly, including any gotchas I may have missed, but again, that's surely doable with a six month lead time.
a national registry sounds like a great idea. in theory. game that out a bit for problems...
330 million people. getting some semblance of organized for that well ahead puts you ahead of the game, right?
well, who benefits from that? keeping it simple... people that have easy access and savvy to tech and people that are willing to cheat the system maybe?

whatever effort you put into the former, you will be shortchanging millions as folks fall thru the cracks. or tens of millions. you are going to have that problem anyway, but when you make it macro it seems to me that is a very possible if not probable amplified unintended consequence. you can't get as granular. is sacrificing equity in the name of efficiency a good trade?

same goes for cheating the system. how are we cross checking on who has diabetes? who is a firefighter? frontline worker? a smoker? will we catch more or fewer peeps doing it nationally and getting as much out the door as fast as possible? could this be a small problem? yes. but i don't think so. and if you want to crosscheck this with any veracity, you've probably added work and manpower that's incalculable.

throw in all the changes that come in on production, distribution, delivery, coordination, peeps not showing for their shot, yada.

and that's just a national registry. something that should help. in theory. just saying... all of it is a very large ask. why i said a very top flight logistics crew would've been needed. not us spitballing.
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