Is a 2021 season going to happen?

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Parputt
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Parputt »

pcowlax wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:17 am quote=bearlaxfan post_id=187783 time=1600958449 user_id=400]
Test test test! with masks, distancing. U of Illinois apparently was laughed at for its over-the-top testing plan, but it's doing better than almost all other big schools. Not a laxschool of course.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/inside-univer ... d=72686799
Here is the above referenced data. There are links on the twitter feed where this was published sourcing the data for each school. I glanced through a few (and it looks accurate) but cannot vouch for all of it (though the guy who put it together is reputable). I think there might be some discrepancy as to whether all of the positives are actually students or part of the "school system" between schools. In addition this obviously is only a small fraction of schools and perhaps there might be reporting bias where schools that are doing worse are reluctant to publish their data. The overall take home though is clear and consistent with all of the data to date on COVID outcomes in this age group.

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I would venture that these number are not even close to being an accurate pic of what is happening on most campuses. I know for a fact one school is artificially keeping its numbers down by using this strategy: if 1 person in a multi person house tests positive, they do not test everyone else in the house for obvious fear of climbing numbers and the effect if might have on football's progress. Instead of the possibility of multiple positives, its only counts against the numbers as 1 positive. So, practically speaking those numbers are heavily skewed. A guide perhaps but not even close to being accurate.

edit: Not questioning the person who compiled the data. You can only compile whats available not necessarily whats accurate.
pcowlax
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by pcowlax »

That could certainly be, though I doubt anything like that is widespread. If it was however it would actually only amplify my point. I am not trying to defend or advise schools on how to make sure football season continues. What is demonstrably clear though and which has been clear for many months, is that COVID in people this age is just not a big deal at all. 2 hospitalizations out of 40,000 cases. Let's say you are right and there is some vast conspiracy to avoid testing those most likely to be positive in order to keep the numbers down. That means that COVID is actually more widespread on campuses than these data suggest. Which would mean it is even less of a reason for concern than these already extremely reassuring numbers suggest. Rest assured no one is being hospitalized with COVID symptoms and not being tested because Nick Saban doesn't want them to be. If there are more undetected cases, that means the number of hospitalizations/cases is actually even lower. At some point there will be some bad outcomes and likely a few deaths among college students. But there are deaths every year among college students due to drinking, accidents, influenza, meningitis and a myriad of others. The question is whether COVID presents any sort of risk that is significantly higher than that inherent in these others, for which schools take minimal to no precautions and which are not broadcast out with a daily tracking number. That question really has already been answered.
wgdsr
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

pcowlax wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:14 pm That could certainly be, though I doubt anything like that is widespread. If it was however it would actually only amplify my point. I am not trying to defend or advise schools on how to make sure football season continues. What is demonstrably clear though and which has been clear for many months, is that COVID in people this age is just not a big deal at all. 2 hospitalizations out of 40,000 cases. Let's say you are right and there is some vast conspiracy to avoid testing those most likely to be positive in order to keep the numbers down. That means that COVID is actually more widespread on campuses than these data suggest. Which would mean it is even less of a reason for concern than these already extremely reassuring numbers suggest. Rest assured no one is being hospitalized with COVID symptoms and not being tested because Nick Saban doesn't want them to be. If there are more undetected cases, that means the number of hospitalizations/cases is actually even lower. At some point there will be some bad outcomes and likely a few deaths among college students. But there are deaths every year among college students due to drinking, accidents, influenza, meningitis and a myriad of others. The question is whether COVID presents any sort of risk that is significantly higher than that inherent in these others, for which schools take minimal to no precautions and which are not broadcast out with a daily tracking number. That question really has already been answered.
it's still early. getting faculty, staff, and community numbers won't happen with any clarity in several weeks.
they could be substantial. they might be minimal. they WILL attract media attention if it's the former. or maybe even the latter.
Parputt
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Parputt »

pcowlax wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:14 pm That could certainly be, though I doubt anything like that is widespread. If it was however it would actually only amplify my point. I am not trying to defend or advise schools on how to make sure football season continues. What is demonstrably clear though and which has been clear for many months, is that COVID in people this age is just not a big deal at all. 2 hospitalizations out of 40,000 cases. Let's say you are right and there is some vast conspiracy to avoid testing those most likely to be positive in order to keep the numbers down. That means that COVID is actually more widespread on campuses than these data suggest. Which would mean it is even less of a reason for concern than these already extremely reassuring numbers suggest. Rest assured no one is being hospitalized with COVID symptoms and not being tested because Nick Saban doesn't want them to be. If there are more undetected cases, that means the number of hospitalizations/cases is actually even lower. At some point there will be some bad outcomes and likely a few deaths among college students. But there are deaths every year among college students due to drinking, accidents, influenza, meningitis and a myriad of others. The question is whether COVID presents any sort of risk that is significantly higher than that inherent in these others, for which schools take minimal to no precautions and which are not broadcast out with a daily tracking number. That question really has already been answered.
I agree with you about the severity of the cases and considering the fact that the numbers being published by some schools are artificially managed to be low, it does prove the point about hospitalizations and serious complications at this age from this disease. My point was that these numbers are not even close to being accurate because schools are cooking the numbers. That is not a guess, its a fact. A sad one but its happening. Thanks for your thoughtful response, always interesting.
pcowlax
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by pcowlax »

Parputt wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:26 pm
pcowlax wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:14 pm That could certainly be, though I doubt anything like that is widespread. If it was however it would actually only amplify my point. I am not trying to defend or advise schools on how to make sure football season continues. What is demonstrably clear though and which has been clear for many months, is that COVID in people this age is just not a big deal at all. 2 hospitalizations out of 40,000 cases. Let's say you are right and there is some vast conspiracy to avoid testing those most likely to be positive in order to keep the numbers down. That means that COVID is actually more widespread on campuses than these data suggest. Which would mean it is even less of a reason for concern than these already extremely reassuring numbers suggest. Rest assured no one is being hospitalized with COVID symptoms and not being tested because Nick Saban doesn't want them to be. If there are more undetected cases, that means the number of hospitalizations/cases is actually even lower. At some point there will be some bad outcomes and likely a few deaths among college students. But there are deaths every year among college students due to drinking, accidents, influenza, meningitis and a myriad of others. The question is whether COVID presents any sort of risk that is significantly higher than that inherent in these others, for which schools take minimal to no precautions and which are not broadcast out with a daily tracking number. That question really has already been answered.
I agree with you about the severity of the cases and considering the fact that the numbers being published by some schools are artificially managed to be low, it does prove the point about hospitalizations and serious complications at this age from this disease. My point was that these numbers are not even close to being accurate because schools are cooking the numbers. That is not a guess, its a fact. A sad one but its happening. Thanks for your thoughtful response, always interesting.
Thank you Parputt, I certainly agree they want the numbers to look as low as possible. To keep sports going yes but also to keep students enrolled and paying tuition in general. It is one thing to do it for a semester but to have maybe a year and a half of your college time be remote is really unappealing to kids looking to live the college lifestyle (which is an awful lot of them) and if schools that started in person go online I would bet a large number of students look to take the year off (to the extent that they can get refunds).
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Matnum PI
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by Matnum PI »

pcowlax wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:02 pm ...to the extent that they can get refunds.
I believe that this was the game plan from the beginning, to get parents optimistic about the coming year in order to get paid for the coming year and then... Do what they need to do to maintain operations, remotely or otherwise. Obviously there'll be disgruntled parents if they move online but better disgruntled with a check in the school's pocket than just disgruntled.
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FMUBart
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by FMUBart »

SCLaxAttack
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by SCLaxAttack »

FMUBart wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:42 am https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ason/56889

Fingers crossed...

The MAAC was the first conference to announce their basketball scheduling, and its methodology might be a great solution for lacrosse. They’re starting the non-conference schedule two weeks before they start their conference only schedule, then playing two conference games/week (always on Tues and Fri), and allowing one week without games for rescheduling of potentially postponed games before their conference tournament.

Doing something like this would allow the lacrosse season to start much later (hooray no winter lacrosse), still keep a non-conference schedule component, and get the college sport back into the habit of two games/week.
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old salt
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by old salt »

SCLaxAttack wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:17 am
FMUBart wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:42 am https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ason/56889

Fingers crossed...

The MAAC was the first conference to announce their basketball scheduling, and its methodology might be a great solution for lacrosse. They’re starting the non-conference schedule two weeks before they start their conference only schedule, then playing two conference games/week (always on Tues and Fri), and allowing one week without games for rescheduling of potentially postponed games before their conference tournament.

Doing something like this would allow the lacrosse season to start much later (hooray no winter lacrosse), still keep a non-conference schedule component, and get the college sport back into the habit of two games/week.
That would be great. The Coaches will complain, but if everyone in conf did it, there'd be no competitive advantage.
Roster depth would become more important. More players would get playing time.
bauer4429
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by bauer4429 »

How do you figure more players getting playing time? D1 programs roll with their starters and sprinkle in backups, The large rosters would make for more benchwarmers and lots more unhappy players.
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old salt
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by old salt »

bauer4429 wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm How do you figure more players getting playing time? D1 programs roll with their starters and sprinkle in backups, The large rosters would make for more benchwarmers and lots more unhappy players.
I didn't say larger rosters. If they play midweek games every week, reserves will get more playing time. 2md mf, 4th attackman & pole, 3 or 4 lsm's & dm's
bauer4429
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by bauer4429 »

They will play the starters unless they are hurt. Unless they are playing a bad team.
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old salt
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by old salt »

bauer4429 wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:42 pm They will play the starters unless they are hurt. Unless they are playing a bad team.
So teams don't already use a 4th attackman, 4th close defender, 2nd MF line, 2nd or 3rd LSM, or 3rd DM ?
bauer4429
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by bauer4429 »

They will play the starters and the regular backups to them . If you’ve got a team of 50 or 60 players there will be more benchwarmers ... sorry it’s just a fact from too many 5th years, transfers, and incoming freshman. I would guess most teams will make smaller travel teams also.
bananas
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by bananas »

bauer4429 wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:08 pm They will play the starters and the regular backups to them . If you’ve got a team of 50 or 60 players there will be more benchwarmers ... sorry it’s just a fact from too many 5th years, transfers, and incoming freshman. I would guess most teams will make smaller travel teams also.
In a competitive game that is not long decided, a major d1 with a roster around 60 will problably play between 22-25 kids.
DocBarrister
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by DocBarrister »

More than one-third of Notre Dame’s roster is out of action due to Covid-19.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/c ... story.html

They have a scheduled weekend off coming up, but it’s hard to see how they will be ready for Florida State on October 10.

College football is struggling with far more resources than lacrosse will ever have.

DocBarrister :?
@DocBarrister
FMUBart
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by FMUBart »

Yes, the sky is falling...any hospitalizations? Keep spreading the fear!
steel_hop
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by steel_hop »

DocBarrister wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:46 am More than one-third of Notre Dame’s roster is out of action due to Covid-19.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/c ... story.html

They have a scheduled weekend off coming up, but it’s hard to see how they will be ready for Florida State on October 10.

College football is struggling with far more resources than lacrosse will ever have.

DocBarrister :?
Really? I saw a bunch of football games this weekend.
wgdsr
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by wgdsr »

DocBarrister wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:46 am More than one-third of Notre Dame’s roster is out of action due to Covid-19.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/c ... story.html

They have a scheduled weekend off coming up, but it’s hard to see how they will be ready for Florida State on October 10.

College football is struggling with far more resources than lacrosse will ever have.

DocBarrister :?
if all 39 players remain out, that leaves them with just 75 players. let's hope they figure something out.

given the timeline, i would expect 20 days would be more than enough time to not only get many back, but back on the practice field.

this also looks like quite the science experiment where they could locate and document possibly who, what, and maybe when and how in some cases.
ProudPapa
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Re: Is a 2021 season going to happen?

Post by ProudPapa »

DocBarrister wrote: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:46 am More than one-third of Notre Dame’s roster is out of action due to Covid-19.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/c ... story.html

They have a scheduled weekend off coming up, but it’s hard to see how they will be ready for Florida State on October 10.

College football is struggling with far more resources than lacrosse will ever have.

DocBarrister :?
Unfortunately for Doc, they won't be hospitalized and the games will be played as planned.
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