Big Ten 2021

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Cooter
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

keno in reno wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:04 pm
Tdemling6 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 am Despite losing arguably their best player in program history, Penn State is still the team to beat in the Big Ten.

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/10/22/p ... e-big-ten/
I question an article that calls the top individual award the "Tewarraton" and then says they are "certainly the favorites to win the Big Ten once again". I mean they're certainly good, but they did go 5-2 last spring with Ament. I don't see how they are "certainly" better than Maryland, Ohio State or Hopkins. We'll see.
I haven't read the article but saying Penn State is the team to beat seems questionable. I think that if Bernhardt returns, Maryland is the favorite. If he doesn't, then it is probably a toss up between Maryland and PSU. OSU is close behind them.

The way Hopkins was going last season, I would not put them in contention for the team to beat in the Big Ten.
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jhu06
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by jhu06 »

If hopkins doesn't play, and so far the school has canceled in person january interession and in person homecoming, does conference lose its ncaa tournament aq for the spring? Are players allowed to transfer?
Cooter
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

jhu06 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:10 pm If hopkins doesn't play, and so far the school has canceled in person january interession and in person homecoming, does conference lose its ncaa tournament aq for the spring? Are players allowed to transfer?
I believe the ACC was given an aq for a couple seasons after Maryland left.
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jhu06
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by jhu06 »

Cooter wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:12 pm
jhu06 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:10 pm If hopkins doesn't play, and so far the school has canceled in person january interession and in person homecoming, does conference lose its ncaa tournament aq for the spring? Are players allowed to transfer?
I believe the ACC was given an aq for a couple seasons after Maryland left.
congrats to rutgers/michigan on finally breaking through to the b1g tournament.
Tdemling6
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Tdemling6 »

Cooter wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:47 pm
keno in reno wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:04 pm
Tdemling6 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 am Despite losing arguably their best player in program history, Penn State is still the team to beat in the Big Ten.

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/10/22/p ... e-big-ten/
I question an article that calls the top individual award the "Tewarraton" and then says they are "certainly the favorites to win the Big Ten once again". I mean they're certainly good, but they did go 5-2 last spring with Ament. I don't see how they are "certainly" better than Maryland, Ohio State or Hopkins. We'll see.
I haven't read the article but saying Penn State is the team to beat seems questionable. I think that if Bernhardt returns, Maryland is the favorite. If he doesn't, then it is probably a toss up between Maryland and PSU. OSU is close behind them.

The way Hopkins was going last season, I would not put them in contention for the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Maryland and Penn State are the top two for sure. Honestly could be a 1A, 1B situation early on. Both are pretty complete teams, but I would give Penn State the upper hand with Arceri at the dot right now. Will be a game to circle for sure. I also like OSU as that third best team.
keno in reno
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by keno in reno »

Tdemling6 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:15 am
Cooter wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:47 pm
keno in reno wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:04 pm
Tdemling6 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 am Despite losing arguably their best player in program history, Penn State is still the team to beat in the Big Ten.

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/10/22/p ... e-big-ten/
I question an article that calls the top individual award the "Tewarraton" and then says they are "certainly the favorites to win the Big Ten once again". I mean they're certainly good, but they did go 5-2 last spring with Ament. I don't see how they are "certainly" better than Maryland, Ohio State or Hopkins. We'll see.
I haven't read the article but saying Penn State is the team to beat seems questionable. I think that if Bernhardt returns, Maryland is the favorite. If he doesn't, then it is probably a toss up between Maryland and PSU. OSU is close behind them.

The way Hopkins was going last season, I would not put them in contention for the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Maryland and Penn State are the top two for sure. Honestly could be a 1A, 1B situation early on. Both are pretty complete teams, but I would give Penn State the upper hand with Arceri at the dot right now. Will be a game to circle for sure. I also like OSU as that third best team.
I don't know how anyone can tell at this point. It will be 2 years since anyone played a lacrosse game with any meaning. And then a ton of kids switched teams. There are coaches who could turn Hopkins into a top team immediately. The talent difference between OSU and any top team is not much.

There's probably only one team worthy of a 'certainly' this year and that's Duke, but even then who knows how how their chemistry will be. Whatever, I just hope we can talk about real games in 90 days.
Cooter
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

Tdemling6 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:15 am
Cooter wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:47 pm
keno in reno wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:04 pm
Tdemling6 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 am Despite losing arguably their best player in program history, Penn State is still the team to beat in the Big Ten.

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/10/22/p ... e-big-ten/
I question an article that calls the top individual award the "Tewarraton" and then says they are "certainly the favorites to win the Big Ten once again". I mean they're certainly good, but they did go 5-2 last spring with Ament. I don't see how they are "certainly" better than Maryland, Ohio State or Hopkins. We'll see.
I haven't read the article but saying Penn State is the team to beat seems questionable. I think that if Bernhardt returns, Maryland is the favorite. If he doesn't, then it is probably a toss up between Maryland and PSU. OSU is close behind them.

The way Hopkins was going last season, I would not put them in contention for the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Maryland and Penn State are the top two for sure. Honestly could be a 1A, 1B situation early on. Both are pretty complete teams, but I would give Penn State the upper hand with Arceri at the dot right now. Will be a game to circle for sure. I also like OSU as that third best team.
While I might give PSU a slight edge on face-offs based on Arceri's career, Justin Shockey was playing real well for the Terps this past spring. In the shortened season, Shockey was at .623 FO pct, while Arceri was at .549.

Both teams were playing well up to the break, it's hard to know who was better due to the season's early ending. PSU has lost Ament, and I believe LSM T Wright is gone. Maryland may or may not have Bernhardt, but all the other regulars are back.

Maryland has added some quality transfers in Griffin Brown, Eric Holden, and BJ Burlace. Maryland has brought in some top freshmen recruits.

Maryland was using a number of freshmen last spring: Maltz, Brennan, Sherrer, McNaney, Calderone, who while not getting a full year's experience will be sophomores.

Overall, I think things look better for the Terps, and they should be ranked higher.
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Wheels
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Wheels »

If Bernhardt comes back (I happen to think he will), Maryland's offense will be the most dynamic in the nation...more complete than Duke even with Sowers. Two midfield lines that will be indistinguishable from each other. Two elite athletes in Fairman and Bernhardt that require special slide packages. Holden and Griffin add much needed stretch shooting.

Shockey et al at the FOGO are keys. They combined to best Gallagher from Penn (now Michigan) last season. If they continue that level of play and get the Terps 55%+ every game at the X, how will anyone be able to outscore the Terps?

Get 50%+ in the cage and clear close to 90% (a bit of a bugaboo for the Terps over the past 2 years), and that's a tall order for any opponent to stop.

Losing Ament will hurt PSU more than any other player outside of Sowers's departure from Princeton.
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

Gallagher ended up transferring to Notre Dame.
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HopFan16
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by HopFan16 »

I agree that Maryland should be the favorites in the conference with Penn State losing Ament, but would pump the brakes on talk of "the most dynamic offense in the nation." There is a lot of talent to be sure but it's still unclear how all those pieces will fit, and Fairman wasn't exactly lighting it up last season. UNC's offense brings pretty much everyone back and adds McCarthy from Princeton. Syracuse brings back everyone except Lipka, who was solid, but replaceable. I believe Georgetown brings everyone back too and now adds Petkevich. All three of those schools scored at a higher clip than the Terps last year.

Maryland will probably have one of the top offenses but stating in October that it'll be the most dynamic is just sliiiightly homerish. That's to say nothing of Duke, which was essentially tied with Maryland in goals per game in 2020 and now adds one of the best attackman in the history of the sport. UNC, Cuse, GTown, and Duke all had better offensive efficiency numbers than Maryland last season as well. Maryland was 15th in that stat: https://lacrossereference.com/stats/adj ... cy-d1-men/
Cooter
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

I don't put to much value on such team stats, as they depend on who you played and also how the games went.

Hopefully, Fairman will have recovered from his shooting slump, but this year Maryland will have Griffin Brown or Eric Holden to try to pick up the slack if he is still slumping.
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HopFan16
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by HopFan16 »

Cooter wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:24 pm I don't put to much value on such team stats, as they depend on who you played and also how the games went.

Hopefully, Fairman will have recovered from his shooting slump, but this year Maryland will have Griffin Brown or Eric Holden to try to pick up the slack if he is still slumping.
Adjusted efficiency takes into account the strength of the opposing teams defenses. It's the closest thing we have to knowing which offense is objectively better
Cooter
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

HopFan16 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:45 pm
Cooter wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:24 pm I don't put to much value on such team stats, as they depend on who you played and also how the games went.

Hopefully, Fairman will have recovered from his shooting slump, but this year Maryland will have Griffin Brown or Eric Holden to try to pick up the slack if he is still slumping.
Adjusted efficiency takes into account the strength of the opposing teams defenses. It's the closest thing we have to knowing which offense is objectively better
But not necessarily that good.
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HopFan16
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by HopFan16 »

Cooter wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:40 pm
HopFan16 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:45 pm
Cooter wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:24 pm I don't put to much value on such team stats, as they depend on who you played and also how the games went.

Hopefully, Fairman will have recovered from his shooting slump, but this year Maryland will have Griffin Brown or Eric Holden to try to pick up the slack if he is still slumping.
Adjusted efficiency takes into account the strength of the opposing teams defenses. It's the closest thing we have to knowing which offense is objectively better
But not necessarily that good.
I mean, it's pretty straightforward. It's how often a team scores per possession weighted by the strength of the defenses they are facing. That tells you a lot.
jrn19
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by jrn19 »

HopFan16 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:49 am I agree that Maryland should be the favorites in the conference with Penn State losing Ament, but would pump the brakes on talk of "the most dynamic offense in the nation." There is a lot of talent to be sure but it's still unclear how all those pieces will fit, and Fairman wasn't exactly lighting it up last season. UNC's offense brings pretty much everyone back and adds McCarthy from Princeton. Syracuse brings back everyone except Lipka, who was solid, but replaceable. I believe Georgetown brings everyone back too and now adds Petkevich. All three of those schools scored at a higher clip than the Terps last year.

Maryland will probably have one of the top offenses but stating in October that it'll be the most dynamic is just sliiiightly homerish. That's to say nothing of Duke, which was essentially tied with Maryland in goals per game in 2020 and now adds one of the best attackman in the history of the sport. UNC, Cuse, GTown, and Duke all had better offensive efficiency numbers than Maryland last season as well. Maryland was 15th in that stat: https://lacrossereference.com/stats/adj ... cy-d1-men/
In fairness to the comment you replied too, he did say *with* Bernhardt that they'd be the most dynamic offense in the nation. Now you could still have a debate because of how many supercharged offenses there are; but Bernhardt, Wisnauskas, Holden, Brown, DeMaio, and Fairman gives you 3 of the Top 21 players in the country in PPG last year (yes small sample size to be sure) and 4 of the Top 25 in goals per game. And that's not mentioning DeMaio who's been a top 6-7 middie in the country in his career and Fairman who's pretty darn great as well even if he did struggle offensively last year. Even Duke with Sowers or Carolina adding McCarthy couldn't boast that many guys at the top of the points and goal charts. The efficiency numbers are a completely valid point, as is how they'd fit together (a question for everybody frankly); but maybe only Duke would have as many guys capable of dodging and winning their match-up as Maryland's Top 6 would.

Now without Bernhardt (which seems to be how you were approaching it), I'd agree they'd be in the discussion with the Top 5-6 and maybe on the tad lower end of that. But adding/retaining Bernhardt changes the calculus imo.
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Wheels »

From my view, what Maryland lacked last year was someone who could stretch a defense with his shot. It allowed teams to pack in on defense to limit Bernhardt's dodging from behind the goal and Fairman's dodging from up top. Adding Holden and Brown gives Maryland two stretch shooters that defenses have to account for. Their EMO last year was average, again, because they didn't have stretch shooters up top. Defenses could pack in even tighter and take away the passing lanes around the goal, which is where Maryland's EMO is typically effective.

When also talking about potentially the most dynamic offense (with Bernhardt), that has to include the 2nd line of midfield. It's not just the Top 6 that will make the offense dynamic. It's that second midfield line that will be just as threatening as the first line but in different ways.

I really like Syracuse's entire team (thought they'd have won the title last year), and Sowers is an unreal player. I'm not a fan of UNC's offense (so midfield driven with alley dodges despite Gray).
Cooter
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Cooter »

I thought Fairman was a pretty good stretch shooter in 2019. He just didn't really seem to have it this past spring. Lacrosse is a rough sport and maybe he had some sort of arm or shoulder injury. Wisnauskas has a pretty big shot. I'd say he was a stretch shooter. Not really sure that Brown or Holden are stretch shooters. Both are excellent shooters, but I don't know what their range is. Daniel Kelly is an outstanding shooter, but it is more about velocity and shot placement than distance. It wouldn't be a big surprise to see D.Kelly line-up next to the goal with Wisnauskas moving up top on man-up. Koras shows some pretty good range on a couple of shots in his highlights.
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Tdemling6
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Tdemling6 »

While Rutgers has been elevated to new heights during the Brian Brecht era, the Scarlet Knights' 16-year NCAA Tournament drought remains. After being extremely close in recent history, could 2021 be the year they get over that hump?

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/10/29/h ... 21-season/
Wheels
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by Wheels »

Cooter wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:17 pm I thought Fairman was a pretty good stretch shooter in 2019. He just didn't really seem to have it this past spring. Lacrosse is a rough sport and maybe he had some sort of arm or shoulder injury. Wisnauskas has a pretty big shot. I'd say he was a stretch shooter. Not really sure that Brown or Holden are stretch shooters. Both are excellent shooters, but I don't know what their range is. Daniel Kelly is an outstanding shooter, but it is more about velocity and shot placement than distance. It wouldn't be a big surprise to see D.Kelly line-up next to the goal with Wisnauskas moving up top on man-up. Koras shows some pretty good range on a couple of shots in his highlights.
DeMaio and Wisnauskas are classic wing shooters. DeMaio probably has a little more range. Logan has all of those different shooting angles and crafty bounce shots from inside of 10. Teams really backed off of Bubba when he was at distance last year. Better to have him shoot from 15 than 10. Logan is also such a great passer from that low wing spot that you're not going to see him up top too much.

Brown and Holden can pound it from the restraining line in. Ask the Hobart forum (or Syracuse fans) about Holden's range. Cuse fans could also tell you about Brown's range. Holden is a strong righty shot, while Brown is a strong lefty shot. The man-up offense is really going to cause problems for defenses.

If you see a freshman on the EMO, it probably means that the Terps are up big and Tills/Rep are building depth and experience. Too many good options with Logan, DeMaio, Brown, Holden, Fairman, Brennan...and Maltz in the crease... and what if Jared comes back? Then who knows what kind of personnel groups go on that EMO.

Would be really surprised to see any freshman get meaningful time in games unless the games are early blowouts.
bananas
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Re: Big Ten 2021

Post by bananas »

Tdemling6 wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:28 am While Rutgers has been elevated to new heights during the Brian Brecht era, the Scarlet Knights' 16-year NCAA Tournament drought remains. After being extremely close in recent history, could 2021 be the year they get over that hump?

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/10/29/h ... 21-season/

Solid rundown of RU and I share the optimism. Thought they'd enter season as a sleeper but others are catching on. They will be capable of beaing anyone on a any given day
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