SimSeason 2020

[CU88]

https://lacrossebucket.com/2020/03/25/t ... -all-time/

[laxreference]

One game on the docket this evening, but it's a really exciting (fake) game. Duke vs UNC. 8 miles and a shade of blue. A chance for UNC to really establish themselves as one of the sim-favorites in the sim-ACC along-side sim-Cuse and maybe sim-UVA. sim-Duke needs this one or their sim-NCAA probability will drop down to around 40%. That's the danger zone on the wrong-side of the bubble.

Opening faceoff is at 7 PM (you knew this game would be moved to primetime; no TV contracts to worry about!)

Duke vs Carolina

[laxreference]

I added a new "feature" to the SimSeason. The Standings tab has been updated to show the standings in each conference as well as the probability that each team will finish in each position. (If you are on mobile, it's just the most likely seed for each team.)

This should give a sense of where each team is likely to end up as far as seeding for the simulated league tournaments.

[laxreference]

2 games on the slate today:

VMI vs UMBC - 2:00 PM
Manhattan vs Monmouth - 3:45 PM

Thinking about shifting some games around to different days so that we don't have as many empty days.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

lr, question: going in to a particular game, I can get a rough idea of who is favored by comparing ELOs.

And after a game, I can see what the winning percentage is before or at the first whistle.

Is there a way to see the projected winning percentage before the game, before you start populating the live real time winning percentage graph?

Keep up the great work!

[laxreference]

lr, question: going in to a particular game, I can get a rough idea of who is favored by comparing ELOs.

And after a game, I can see what the winning percentage is before or at the first whistle.

Is there a way to see the projected winning percentage before the game, before you start populating the live real time winning percentage graph?

Keep up the great work!

I'll try and carve out some time to add that to the preview page. Thanks for the suggestion.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

lr, question: going in to a particular game, I can get a rough idea of who is favored by comparing ELOs.

And after a game, I can see what the winning percentage is before or at the first whistle.

Is there a way to see the projected winning percentage before the game, before you start populating the live real time winning percentage graph?

Keep up the great work!

I'll try and carve out some time to add that to the preview page. Thanks for the suggestion.

If this site had a like/thumbs up, I would give you ELEVEN.

[laxreference]

Ok, the game pages have been updated with an extra section for Win Probability. I have also made it so that that "Upcoming Games" on the SimSeason page have active links that take you to the preview pages for that game. Of course, those links switch over to the live win probabilities as soon as the simulation of the game starts.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Super! Thanks!

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Ok, the game pages have been updated with an extra section for Win Probability. I have also made it so that that "Upcoming Games" on the SimSeason page have active links that take you to the preview pages for that game. Of course, those links switch over to the live win probabilities as soon as the simulation of the game starts.

I couldn’t see it on mobile, but when I sent the Hopkins-Michigan page to my phone as a pdf file, I saw it’s 52%-48% Hopkins.

[laxreference]

Fixed. The WP is visible on mobile too now.

[laxreference]

33 games on the SimSeason plate today...

Hofstra vs Towson - 9:00 AM
Richmond vs Virginia - 10:45 AM
Albany vs Hartford - 11:00 AM
Boston U vs Navy - 11:30 AM
Air Force vs Mercer - 12:00 PM
Bryant vs Merrimack - 12:00 PM
Saint Joseph's vs Mount St Marys - 12:00 PM
NJIT vs Wagner - 12:00 PM
Harvard vs Colgate - 12:00 PM
Vermont vs UMass-Lowell - 12:00 PM
High Point vs Bellarmine - 12:00 PM
Delaware vs Fairfield - 12:30 PM
Lafayette vs Lehigh - 12:30 PM
Robert Morris vs LIU - 12:45 PM
Stony Brook vs Binghamton - 1:00 PM
Canisius vs Marist - 1:00 PM
Detroit vs Siena - 1:00 PM
Furman vs Jacksonville - 1:00 PM
Quinnipiac vs St. Bonaventure - 1:00 PM
Loyola vs Holy Cross - 1:15 PM
Drexel vs UMass - 2:00 PM
Marquette vs Villanova - 2:30 PM
Princeton vs Brown - 2:30 PM
Dartmouth vs Cornell - 3:00 PM
St. John's vs Providence - 3:15 PM
Army vs Bucknell - 3:30 PM
Rutgers vs Ohio State - 3:45 PM
Sacred Heart vs Hobart - 3:45 PM
Cleveland State vs Utah - 4:00 PM
Denver vs Georgetown - 6:45 PM
Johns Hopkins vs Michigan - 7:00 PM
Penn vs Yale - 7:45 PM
Notre Dame vs Syracuse - 8:00 PM

[laxreference]

Just a reminder. We've got 4 primetime simulations running this evening...

Denver vs Georgetown - 6:45 PM
Johns Hopkins vs Michigan - 7:00 PM
Penn vs Yale - 7:45 PM
Notre Dame vs Syracuse - 8:00 PM

[SMK_GB33]

Another sim of Michigan vs. Hopkins!

https://grabyo.com/g/v/ekptOzQJHtG

[DMac]

Cuse coming out of the gate a little slow, down 3-2 in the 1st.
Field is wet, drizzling on and off all day here. Nice crowd despite that.
No worries, Cuse boys'll come back.

[laxreference]

Cuse coming out of the gate a little slow, down 3-2 in the 1st.
Field is wet, drizzling on and off all day here. Nice crowd despite that.
No worries, Cuse boys'll come back.

So far, the ND possession margin and shot advantage is the difference. 2 failed clears by Cuse too...

I'll be surprised if ND is able to maintain the FO split too. 50% for both teams so far.

[stupefied]

Cuse coming out of the gate a little slow, down 3-2 in the 1st.
Field is wet, drizzling on and off all day here. Nice crowd despite that.
No worries, Cuse boys'll come back.

So far, the ND possession margin and shot advantage is the difference. 2 failed clears by Cuse too...

I'll be surprised if ND is able to maintain the FO split too. 50% for both teams so far.

Cuse clears at a high 92% but seems the 2 sims so far have them around 70%.

[laxreference]

Cuse coming out of the gate a little slow, down 3-2 in the 1st.
Field is wet, drizzling on and off all day here. Nice crowd despite that.
No worries, Cuse boys'll come back.

So far, the ND possession margin and shot advantage is the difference. 2 failed clears by Cuse too...

I'll be surprised if ND is able to maintain the FO split too. 50% for both teams so far.

Cuse clears at a high 92% but seems the 2 sims so far have them around 70%.

Lazy answer is "small sample-size, anything can happen." But I also wanted to share a little bit of under-the-hood stuff too. Whenever there is a clear attempt, the simulator averages the clearing team's success rate with the average clearing success rate of the defense's opponents. Then the random-number generator picks a number. If it's below the average of those two success rates, the clear is "good". If it's higher, the clear fails.

[DMac]

Cuse comes back to go up 1 heading into the 4th.
Failed clears? Dearth's leg must've been giving him a little trouble early on. Looks good now though, no more failed clears. Buttermore good for a couple in the 4th. Couple of bounce shots on the wet turf from out front...good as gold.
GO CUSE!!!!!

[HopFan16]

Just a reminder. We've got 4 primetime simulations running this evening...

Denver vs Georgetown - 6:45 PM
Johns Hopkins vs Michigan - 7:00 PM
Penn vs Yale - 7:45 PM
Notre Dame vs Syracuse - 8:00 PM

Look we all know Hopkins stunk this year but why do they keep getting killed on faceoffs in your simulation?

The Jays were 59% in faceoffs before the season ended.

Their three sim oppontents were all significantly worse on faceoffs: Navy 51%, Delaware 40%, Michigan 54%.

And yet all three won the simulated faceoff battle against the Jays by pretty big margins. Navy won 65%, Delaware won 54%, Michigan won 61%. None of that seems terribly realistic.

Kyle Prouty was a combined 35/46 (76%) facing off against Delaware and Michigan last year.

I think this is cool and all but something isn't adding up in the way the FOs are playing out.