Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

D1 Womens Lacrosse
Turtles Lax
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Not correct.

Post by Turtles Lax »

B1G automatic qualifier is the TOURNAMENT winner.

Though fairly certain the Turtles will be in the NCAA’s, they are not (at least yet) the AQ.

Peace, out.

TL
admin wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:35 am Nothing mind-blowing in this piece but keeps things a little organized and allows to make some guesses. D1 Women: Who Goes to the NCAA Championships.
laxorangebookworm
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

TL,

Those are most likely projections of who's going to get the AQs. Obviously, we won't know the other 11 until next week, unless some people here are descended from Nostradamus...
wlaxnut
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by wlaxnut »

laxorangebookworm wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:11 pm TL,

Those are most likely projections of who's going to get the AQs. Obviously, we won't know the other 11 until next week, unless some people here are descended from Nostradamus...
He was only right half the time. Anyone can do that. 😉
laxorangebookworm
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

Badlands wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:52 pm
mdlaxfan wrote: Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:44 pm Penn State is currently at 8-8, and scheduled to play Maryland on Thursday. They have to beat Maryland to remain above .500, or they will be ineligible for the NCAA tourney.
That’s a painful last game when there’s a .500 requirement! I guess that’s why some teams are scheduling OOC cupcake opponents.
That can backfire though, because those cupcakes can drop your RPI like a rock.
Badlands
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by Badlands »

Yup, but I guess the coaches hope that some of those cupcakes will improve over the course of the season, and they'd rather be above .500 with even a slim sliver of a chance at 9 pm on Sunday night than be mathematically eliminated like VT.
Lax247
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by Lax247 »

I like US Lax Mag latest Bracketology. I think its a competitive group for the most part.
I think most host sites have decent games except Syracuse and NU have the toughest
games.
wlaxnut
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by wlaxnut »

Lax247 wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 1:03 pm I like US Lax Mag latest Bracketology. I think its a competitive group for the most part.
I think most host sites have decent games except Syracuse and NU have the toughest
games.
Speaking of which...

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/w ... rge-berths
laxorangebookworm
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

If Duke had not beaten Notre Dame in the ACCT, I think there would be a bit more drama involved in the bracketology, as it would have put Duke, UMass, G'town and Hofstra in the hunt. UMass is definitely out due to not having any key wins. G'town and Hofstra have to win their conference AQs to get in. Winning their first round games won't help either of them (opponents are Marquette and Towson respectively).

Penn St. is the only one that muddy the waters if they beat Maryland, but that's a tall order. If the favorites don't win several conference AQs, that could also skew things. These are the tournaments to pay attention to:

AAC: Florida
AE: Stony Brook
BE: Denver
CAA: James Madison
B1GT: Penn St./Maryland game
Patriot: if both Loyola and Navy fail to get the AQ

As far as seedings, I think USLaxMag has Virginia seeded too high. Northwestern should get the 5 spot I think. Also, I'd put Notre Dame in at 6. Although they have a weaker RPI, they have two big wins against Virginia and North Carolina that can't really be ignored. Seven seed should go to Virginia. Princeton gets the 8 spot, but if Michigan does well in the B1GT, they're also vying for that.
wlaxnut
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by wlaxnut »

laxorangebookworm wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 1:26 pm
Penn St. is the only one that muddy the waters if they beat Maryland, but that's a tall order.
That’s a Mount Everest tall order. The last (and only) time Penn State beat Maryland was by one goal back in 2005. Since then—15 straight losses. Make that 16 after Friday night.

Penn State won’t muddy the waters.
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Matnum PI
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by Matnum PI »

laxorange, and where would you put Syracuse? Not in the Top 7? Not Top 8?!
Image
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wlaxnut
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by wlaxnut »

Matnum PI wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 2:02 pm laxorange, and where would you put Syracuse? Not in the Top 7? Not Top 8?!
Image
Probably 4. I think he took it for granted that we all know who the top 4 are.
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

wlaxnut wrote: Probably 4. I think he took it for granted that we all know who the top 4 are.
Yeah, sorry about that. Yes, I assumed the top four were just a given. I'd go with Maryland, BC, UNC and SU as 1-4 seeds. However, if Maryland doesn't win the AQ, I think Maryland and BC would switch.
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Matnum PI
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by Matnum PI »

Got it. Right. That makes sense. Thank you.
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laxorangebookworm
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

wlaxnut wrote: That’s a Mount Everest tall order. The last (and only) time Penn State beat Maryland was by one goal back in 2005. Since then—15 straight losses. Make that 16 after Friday night.

Penn State won’t muddy the waters.
True, I would say it's certainly an uphill battle, but that's why the games are played. If it was up to us speculators, we'd have a coin flip between BC and Maryland in February to decide who gets to be national champs. ;) (and who would want that?)
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by admin »

If any of the four won it all, I wouldn't even blink. 5 and beyond, I'd be substantially more surprised.
wlaxnut
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by wlaxnut »

laxorangebookworm wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 3:23 pm
wlaxnut wrote: That’s a Mount Everest tall order. The last (and only) time Penn State beat Maryland was by one goal back in 2005. Since then—15 straight losses. Make that 16 after Friday night.

Penn State won’t muddy the waters.
True, I would say it's certainly an uphill battle, but that's why the games are played. If it was up to us speculators, we'd have a coin flip between BC and Maryland in February to decide who gets to be national champs. ;) (and who would want that?)
BC beat Maryland last year. Penn State’s last win was 14 years ago. Not a good analogy.

Take it to the bank—no way Penn State wins this game. They just don’t have the players or coaching to compete.
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

wlaxnut wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 3:45 pm
laxorangebookworm wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 3:23 pm
wlaxnut wrote: That’s a Mount Everest tall order. The last (and only) time Penn State beat Maryland was by one goal back in 2005. Since then—15 straight losses. Make that 16 after Friday night.

Penn State won’t muddy the waters.
True, I would say it's certainly an uphill battle, but that's why the games are played. If it was up to us speculators, we'd have a coin flip between BC and Maryland in February to decide who gets to be national champs. ;) (and who would want that?)
BC beat Maryland last year. Penn State’s last win was 14 years ago. Not a good analogy.

Take it to the bank—no way Penn State wins this game. They just don’t have the players or coaching to compete.
Oh, I wasn't comparing BC and Maryland to Penn St. and Maryland. I was simply pointing out that those were the two teams everyone expected to compete for the title this year, and that still might very well (most likely, even) be true. However, tournaments have a funny way of screwing with everyone's expectations. I mean, I'll admit that I expected a UND/UNC matchup in the ACCT semifinal, but it didn't happen. I also assumed that BC would beat UNC in the final. Again, didn't happen. I guess what I'm saying is, always expect the unexpected.
wlaxnut
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by wlaxnut »

laxorangebookworm wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 3:53 pm
wlaxnut wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 3:45 pm
laxorangebookworm wrote: Wed May 01, 2019 3:23 pm
wlaxnut wrote: That’s a Mount Everest tall order. The last (and only) time Penn State beat Maryland was by one goal back in 2005. Since then—15 straight losses. Make that 16 after Friday night.

Penn State won’t muddy the waters.
True, I would say it's certainly an uphill battle, but that's why the games are played. If it was up to us speculators, we'd have a coin flip between BC and Maryland in February to decide who gets to be national champs. ;) (and who would want that?)
BC beat Maryland last year. Penn State’s last win was 14 years ago. Not a good analogy.

Take it to the bank—no way Penn State wins this game. They just don’t have the players or coaching to compete.
Oh, I wasn't comparing BC and Maryland to Penn St. and Maryland. I was simply pointing out that those were the two teams everyone expected to compete for the title this year, and that still might very well (most likely, even) be true. However, tournaments have a funny way of screwing with everyone's expectations. I mean, I'll admit that I expected a UND/UNC matchup in the ACCT semifinal, but it didn't happen. I also assumed that BC would beat UNC in the final. Again, didn't happen. I guess what I'm saying is, always expect the unexpected.
All the teams you mentioned are solid upper echelon teams. Penn State doesn't belong in that group this year. In the last 4 years, Maryland has lost 3 games, 2 to UNC and 1 to BC. No one else can touch them. I'm just saying I'm certain Penn State can't beat the Terps this coming Friday. But I still want to watch it because I enjoy seeing how the game unfolds with those and other story lines.
rc13
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by rc13 »

rc13 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:31 am According to the RPI right now, the last four at large teams in the tournament would be:

#17 Penn
#19 Johns Hopkins
#20 Stanford
#23 Colorado


First four excluded:

#24 Georgetown
#26 Hofstra
#27 Richmond
#28 Duke
The 4/28 updated RPI:

Last four at large:
#18 Johns Hopkins
#19 Penn State
#21 Colorado
#22 UMass

First four excluded:
#23 Stanford
#26 Duke
#27 Hofstra
#28 Army

Penn is off the bubble and Penn State slips to the bubble. If UMass does get in, then the Richmond win will likely prevent one bubble team from getting in.

Again, this is based ONLY on RPI and a lot can change in the conference tournaments.
laxorangebookworm
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Re: Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

Post by laxorangebookworm »

rc13,

Just bear in mind that it's not just RPI. Quality wins are pretty big as well.

I think Johns Hopkins, Colorado, Duke and Stanford are in due to key wins.

As wlaxnut pointed out (and I more or less agree with), Penn St. doesn't have much of a chance since they have to get through Maryland. UMass is done since they have no more games left and have no key wins. Hofstra and Army (and you could even add Georgetown to that list) would need to win their conference tournaments for the AQ to get in. Army (actually has a 29 RPI, G'town has the 28, but it's a small matter) would probably have to beat at least Navy in the PLT semis and even then that might not be enough. Hofstra definitely needs to win the CAAT since a win over Towson won't do them much good at this point.
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