Your Picks 2019

[LibertyL]

Salisbury will make it back and win. Not sure against who

[overandback]

Jumbos
Diplomats

Cardinals
Lord Jeffs

Ephs
Bullets

Red Dragons
Tigers


Gulls
Hornets

Titans
Big Red

Cavaliers
Bears

Generals
Spartans

•••••••••••••••

Diplomats
Lord Jeffs

Bullets
Tigers


Gulls
Big Red

Cavaliers
Spartans


••••••••••••••••••

Diplomats
Tigers

Gulls
Spartans

••••••••••••••••••

Tigers
Spartans

•••••••••••••••••••

Spartans

[richard]

So, after the second round it looks like laxfan11 is one up on the other pickers his choice of Union over Cortland being the difference maker. Good Luck in the next round!

[SixBySix]

I'm not sure who's in the lead, but I am certain that I am in dead last.

[DeepPocket]

Round 2 North
Tufts
F&M

Wes
Amherst

Williams
G’burg

Cortland
RIT

Round 2 South
Salisbury
Lynchburg

Rhodes
Denison

Cabrini
Springfield

W&L
York

Quarterfinals
Tufts
Amherst

RIT
G’burg

Salisbury
Ill Wes

Ursinus
York

Semis
Tufts
RIT

Salisbury
York


NC Game
RIT 10 Salisbury 7....

A lot wrong, but not busted at the final 4 yet.... Yet

[ColonelFastBreak]

Skipping to the semis, as its fairly obvious what I think happened before this....

#3 Williams over #1 Tufts (Williams keeps getting closer to beating Tufts. Save for a disallowed OT crease dive goal, which, you may have heard, are supposed to be legal, they would be the NESCAC champs)

#1 Salisbury over #2 York (Salisbury is peaking, per usual, and getting the production they need from their attack to compliment their excellent midfield. With those guys playing well, I don't see a path for York this year. Not without Sasso solving his FO woes and Warren handing the Spartans a couple goals again....)

#1 Salisbury over #3 Williams (Salisbury has never lost two appearances in a row. Who actually thinks they're going to start now??)

Nothing has occurred in the early goings of this tournament to dissuade me from my previous picks. Williams seems to still be playing at a high level. Whether RIT can handle their length and athleticism on the defensive end will determine that game. Both teams have good goaltenders and good face-off units. RIT struggled at times with Union's defense, though they did enough early on to win. We will see how they adjust to a faster, more aggressive version of that defense.

One match-up that may buy the RIT offense a little more margin for error is Brendon Hoffman vs Trevor Smyth. If Smyth can keep Hoffman (the match-up I am assuming will occur) off the scoreboard or minimize his impact that will deal a blow to the Williams offensive attack. They have depth and lots of skilled players, but Hoffman is on another level.

RIT will also want to keep Williams from getting their freshman attackman and leading scorer, Jake Haase, opportunities to survey the field from 'X' and pick out passes without being pestered. It leads to quite a few easy goals for a group that is adept at scoring their opportunities.

If RIT is able to draw slides against the Williams defenders they may score goals quickly. If they do so, I would guess that Williams will show their lock-off or double-lock off look that forces teams to dodge against their poles. If RIT handles that, Williams may get a little uncomfortable. On the other hand, Williams may disrupt the RIT offense with their speed and athleticism and prove to have too much ability on the offensive end for RIT to keep pace. This game could go so many number of ways, but my eyes tell me that Williams should prevail if they can execute. No easy task for a team travelling to Rochester for the first time (I think). Tufts may have done it in 2011 but at least they were defending national champions and had been to the NCAA tournament multiple times in recent years. Williams hasn't made an appearance since 2008.

Amherst playing at Tufts should be entertaining. Mason Pollack was out for Tufts against Stevenson, though their sophomore goalie, Theuer, played well. It is hard to tell much from such a lopsided game, however. Amherst is chalk full of talent and are capable of an outstandingly high level of lacrosse. The unfortunate things for Mammoth fans is that they haven't always been able to excel at that high level. Coach Thompson is still a relatively young coach (despite how long he has been coaching in the NESCAC) who has brought his team here quite a few times. Let's see if, now that he has some more experience, he is able to make the necessary adjustments to push them on to the next step. This Tufts team is playing well, though, if I had to guess, their staff might have liked a bit more of a challenge in the last round because if one thing seems certain about this game it is that Amherst is not going to play at all like Stevenson did.

I don't expect Denison to prove much of a challenge for Salisbury. They were less than impressive against Rhodes and the step-up in level of play may be too much by itself. Year in and year out, Denison is capable of playing with the best teams in the country when they are at their best, but they rarely are at their best this late in the year. It is challenging given that they haven't played a top 20 team in nearly 2 months (3/16 vs F&M). Even then, when two very good teams are playing their best one has to lose, so it is no wonder Denison typically struggles to win this game. In the years where they are playing very good lacrosse in May, they still may lose to another very good team. That said, it doesn't look like this is one of those years where they are playing their best lacrosse.

York vs Cabrini should be another game that follows similar trends, with a talented Cabrini team unable to access their very best lacrosse late while York is much more battle tested. Cabrini is probably in better shape than Denison in that they have more talent and it was about 7 weeks ago (3/27) that they played Salisbury. Still that is a long time to go without seeing another high level team.

[ergit]

Love it...
RIT sounds like the underdog vs Williams.
So Williams is the athletic, offensive juggernaut, never mind having scored over 2 goals a game less than RIT and given up two goals a game more.
RIT is averaging 10 more ground balls per game than Williams. Ten!
RIT is more experienced, being in this position year after year, after year... after year... after year...
RIT is a deeper team than Williams with more distributed scoring and going a dozen players deeper into the line up each and every game.
Having said all that, it should be a great game that could go either way. At this point, all of the teams are talented and it is generally execution and the games-within-the-game that often decide it. And a bit of luck...
No disrespect to Williams, an excellent, young team that should be really good for years to come.

[DeepPocket]

...Not without Sasso solving his FO woes ...

Nothing has occurred in the early goings of this tournament to dissuade me from my previous picks. .

Well Sasso certainly got his MOJO back, and against a great draw guy in Hodgson no less. But success against Hodgson does not equate to success against Malamphy...

[pcowlax]

Love it...
RIT sounds like the underdog vs Williams.
So Williams is the athletic, offensive juggernaut, never mind having scored over 2 goals a game less than RIT and given up two goals a game more.
RIT is averaging 10 more ground balls per game than Williams. Ten!
RIT is more experienced, being in this position year after year, after year... after year... after year...
RIT is a deeper team than Williams with more distributed scoring and going a dozen players deeper into the line up each and every game.
Having said all that, it should be a great game that could go either way. At this point, all of the teams are talented and it is generally execution and the games-within-the-game that often decide it. And a bit of luck...
No disrespect to Williams, an excellent, young team that should be really good for years to come.

I certainly wouldn’t favor Williams in this one and don’t expect them to win. Comparing ground balls per game or scoring margins however is silly as Williams played in a vastly better and deeper conference. RIT almost lost to the 5th or 6th best NESCAC team this year and did lose to Amherst, who Williams beat twice. And that was a game where Amherst got behind and then swarmed back, apparently overwhelming the dozen extra subs of RIT. RIT is every bit as good as Tufts, Amherst, Williams and Wesleyan this year but those 4 are also every bit as good as them. Playing at home with a much more experienced team I’ll say RIT 15-12 in a game where they jump out early and hold on.

[LibertyL]

All good points and RIT is always good at home. This is a great LL v NESCAC match up with big stakes

[ColonelFastBreak]

...Not without Sasso solving his FO woes ...

Nothing has occurred in the early goings of this tournament to dissuade me from my previous picks. .

Well Sasso certainly got his MOJO back, and against a great draw guy in Hodgson no less. But success against Hodgson does not equate to success against Malamphy...

Oh, I was referring his struggles against Malamphy. He hasn't had much in the way of struggles this year outside of his match-ups with Malamphy and has been dominant in some big games (Cabrini, Lynchburg, W&L NCAA). You are right though, success against Hodgson is a good sign for the Spartans. If Sasso can do it over the next two games (he is a combined 12 for 37 vs Salisbury this year) York looks like a better bet to play in Philadelphia. Last year, Sasso went 22 of 43, but Salisbury was splitting their face-off duties between Logue (8 of 21) and Malamphy (13 of 22).

[Dehuntshigwa’es]

...Not without Sasso solving his FO woes ...

Nothing has occurred in the early goings of this tournament to dissuade me from my previous picks. .

Well Sasso certainly got his MOJO back, and against a great draw guy in Hodgson no less. But success against Hodgson does not equate to success against Malamphy...

Oh, I was referring his struggles against Malamphy. He hasn't had much in the way of struggles this year outside of his match-ups with Malamphy and has been dominant in some big games (Cabrini, Lynchburg, W&L NCAA). You are right though, success against Hodgson is a good sign for the Spartans. If Sasso can do it over the next two games (he is a combined 12 for 37 vs Salisbury this year) York looks like a better bet to play in Philadelphia. Last year, Sasso went 22 of 43, but Salisbury was splitting their face-off duties between Logue (8 of 21) and Malamphy (13 of 22).

Hodgson while outstanding just doesn’t match up well against Sasso 5’10” 220. I even said before the game if he could do 50% I’d be happy. Same here, facing off sometimes is just style and in this case Malamphy owns Sasso. I don’t think York played particularly well against W&L. The Generals gave up at least 6 easy goals, time and room 4, then the Sasso goal and the one on a clear. York through 3 qtrs struggled in the prior game as well. That said York can take down Salisbury in the regular season but it’s not who you play but when you play them.This is not the time of year to play the Gulls. Looking for Salisbury to put up 15, can York match that?

[DeepPocket]

Before the first York W&L game of the year, folks here were calling for Hodgson to be the difference over Sasso at the X, thinking he could hit 60%. (I had to bring to light the 35lb weight difference in that discussion) Hind sight is always crystal clear.

York gained some gb’s at the X throwing a pole out against Malamphy towards the end of the last SU game, perhaps they go that route before the time of possession gets out of hand, *should they meet again.*

York has to beat Cabrini first, (and Salisbury Denison) that’s their next goal. One game at a time. Leave the carcass of W&L behind and don’t look too far ahead...