D3 Men NCAA Tournament

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Matnum PI
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D3 Men NCAA Tournament

Post by Matnum PI »

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ergit
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by ergit »

South half of bracket is softer than north. York has easiest path to semi-finals, Amherst and Wesleyan the hardest. IMHO
richard
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by richard »

Tufts should breeze into the quarters.
Salisbury has a tough one vs Lynchburg. Should be fun.
RIT will have to grind it out in their bracket. Fisher is a good team, watch out G-burg.
Not sure what to think about the York bracket. Stockton could be an interesting game. Then Ursinus and Cabrini. Springfield can be a wild card too.
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Matnum PI
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by Matnum PI »

Looks to me like...
Salisbury walks into the Final Four. Tufts, Wesleyan, Amherst is not simple. Williams, Gettysburg, Union, RIT is even less simple. And York, W&L, Ursinus, Cabrini isn't a walk but it also isn't like the two aforementioned paths. Lots of good lacrosse coming up.
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Matnum PI
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by Matnum PI »

richard wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 pm Tufts should breeze into the quarters.
Salisbury has a tough one vs Lynchburg. Should be fun.
RIT will have to grind it out in their bracket. Fisher is a good team, watch out G-burg.
Not sure what to think about the York bracket. Stockton could be an interesting game. Then Ursinus and Cabrini. Springfield can be a wild card too.
Tufts, disagree. Salisbury and Lynchburg. Good point. RIT, agreed. York, agreed.
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viper
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by viper »

Matnum PI wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 10:21 pm
richard wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 pm Tufts should breeze into the quarters.
Salisbury has a tough one vs Lynchburg. Should be fun.
RIT will have to grind it out in their bracket. Fisher is a good team, watch out G-burg.
Not sure what to think about the York bracket. Stockton could be an interesting game. Then Ursinus and Cabrini. Springfield can be a wild card too.
Tufts, disagree. Salisbury and Lynchburg. Good point. RIT, agreed. York, agreed.
How does Stevens not get in over F&M or Gettysburg or others?
SixBySix
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by SixBySix »

viper wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 10:52 pm How does Stevens not get in over F&M or Gettysburg or others?
vs regionally ranked opponent:
Gettysburg: 5-4
F&M: 3-5
Stevens: 3-3

So really it's between F&M and Stevens. Have to imagine with Endicott and Springfield being down, along with the general weakness of the E8, gave F&M the nod on SOS.
ah23
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by ah23 »

viper wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 10:52 pm
Matnum PI wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 10:21 pm
richard wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 9:55 pm Tufts should breeze into the quarters.
Salisbury has a tough one vs Lynchburg. Should be fun.
RIT will have to grind it out in their bracket. Fisher is a good team, watch out G-burg.
Not sure what to think about the York bracket. Stockton could be an interesting game. Then Ursinus and Cabrini. Springfield can be a wild card too.
Tufts, disagree. Salisbury and Lynchburg. Good point. RIT, agreed. York, agreed.
How does Stevens not get in over F&M or Gettysburg or others?
Their strength of schedule was far and away the worst of any team with real hopes for a Pool C bid. FanLax computer rankings (http://fanlax.com/fanlax/2019/05/05/201 ... ngs-may-5/) has Stevens' SOS at 64; they have F&M at 16 and Gburg at 15. Those teams played - and beat - multiple good, ranked opponents. What was Stevens' best win? Christopher Newport? St. John Fisher? They just didn't play anybody, and the loss to Roanoke is killer.

Anyway. Looking around the rest of the bracket, it seems a bit imbalanced as always. Some great matchups to look forward to in the North.

In the North, Wesleyan-Amherst will meet in the third round, with Tufts waiting in the quarters. I wish it weren't so obvious why the NCAA forces NESCAC schools to face each other early in the tournament every year. On the bottom half, RIT should breeze into the quarters. They get a Union team they've handled twice already in the third round. Waiting for them could be the winner of Williams and Gettysburg, which is a fun matchup in and of itself. Cannot wait for the semifinal game - the two teams that make it there will have earned their spots and then some.

In the South, Salisbury shouldn't have to face anybody truly challenging until the semis. York's toughest test before then looks like Cabrini, who they already beat convincingly (and who seems like a perfectly good but overrated team propped up by playing a miserable schedule - 62nd on FanLax). Lynchburg and Ursinus are interesting teams who could throw everything into chaos if they play out of their minds at the right time. Barring something crazy, looks like Salisbury-York III in the semis. Worse things have happened.

Should be an exciting tournament!
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by admin »

D3 MEN Computer Rankings: Based on their regular season performances, which teams are top-of-the-heap and contending for a National Title and which teams are, to be kind, less likely. (Look at the asterisks... and the other metrics.)
PicLax
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by PicLax »

I understand the desire to keep everyone close to home and the reason for the north and south brackets. But the north bracket is noticeable more difficult than the south. North has 6 of top 10 teams in the country and 4 of the top 6. When looking at the top seeded in each bracket, Salisbury and York an infinitely easier path to the semis than Tufts and RIT.
Would be much better lacrosse-wise to move teams around for better distribution of higher ranked teams.
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DeepPocket
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by DeepPocket »

Today’s USILA has the South with 2 in the top 5, 5 in the top 10, and 10 in the top 20.

Believe it or not, the South are the ones who actually have 5 of the top 9.
Additionally, 3 of those top 9 of the are in the same quarter of the bracket - York, Cabrini & Ursinus.

The North quarter of the bracket people are seeming to take issue with by comparison has 3 in the top 10- Tufts, Amherst & Wesleyan.

Most people have teams that they see more than others, and feel strongly about for one reason or another. But just because you like team X and have never seen or heard of team Y, have some faith in the polls (lord knows we have faith in them when the team we like is ranked well).
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Laxdds
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by Laxdds »

What difference does it make, just play the game in front of you and move on if you can. The Championship ring will not be inscribed "But they had an easy draw"
GO BULLETS!
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DeepPocket
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by DeepPocket »

Laxdds wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 1:50 pm What difference does it make, just play the game in front of you and move on if you can. The Championship ring will not be inscribed "But they had an easy draw"
GO BULLETS!
Correct.
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ergit
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by ergit »

I think the suspicion of many is that the ODAC and Centennial conferences are in a down year due to the lack of quality out-of-conference wins.
Maybe those teams will surprise us...
ah23
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by ah23 »

DeepPocket wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 1:40 pm Today’s USILA has the South with 2 in the top 5, 5 in the top 10, and 10 in the top 20.

Believe it or not, the South are the ones who actually have 5 of the top 9.
Additionally, 3 of those top 9 of the are in the same quarter of the bracket - York, Cabrini & Ursinus.

The North quarter of the bracket people are seeming to take issue with by comparison has 3 in the top 10- Tufts, Amherst & Wesleyan.

Most people have teams that they see more than others, and feel strongly about for one reason or another. But just because you like team X and have never seen or heard of team Y, have some faith in the polls (lord knows we have faith in them when the team we like is ranked well).
The coaches poll is, putting it nicely, not a great indicator of team quality.

Cabrini's ranking is a product of playing three legit games all year and a bunch of cupcakes in the others - they have the 62nd SOS in the country. If I were a coach in the North I would love to face the Cavs instead of any NESCAC team, RIT, or Union,

Ursinis has a better, but still just decent resume. They've beaten Gettysburg once, and F&M twice by a goal each time. They also lost to Gettysburg, as well as a horrible Haverford team and a mediocre, hilariously overrated Dickinson team. The Bears are good, but they're not top ten.

The TL;DR here is neither the coaches poll nor a pretty record built off a miserable schedule are good indicators of actual team quality. Maybe the doubters are wrong and the lack of impressive resumes in the South is just...random, but I doubt it. This happens every year.
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DeepPocket
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by DeepPocket »

ah23 wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 2:22 pm This happens every year.
Truer words have never been spoken, though I fear I’m thinking of them differently in relation to this thread...

Surely there are worthy teams (some maybe even more worthy) that are left watching from here on out. Good luck to all whose dreams remain alive. Lots of great lacrosse coming up, any way you spin it.
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BULLET
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by BULLET »

and what about fair DENISON. How did they end up at 4 in the Regional rankings.?? Their body of work is non too impressive when one considers the comp via SOS. DeSales is 17-1, but that alone doesn't tell you much. I don;t mean to disparage these schools or their programs, but wonder how they manage to arrive at their decisions--- other than an effort, sometimes, to save a buck. :lol: :roll:
Nosey Ned
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by Nosey Ned »

BULLET wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 5:59 pm and what about fair DENISON. How did they end up at 4 in the Regional rankings.?? Their body of work is non too impressive when one considers the comp via SOS. DeSales is 17-1, but that alone doesn't tell you much. I don;t mean to disparage these schools or their programs, but wonder how they manage to arrive at their decisions--- other than an effort, sometimes, to save a buck. :lol: :roll:
Whoa.... stay in your lane bra! Who should have been 4th? A team that didn’t even win its Championship (Gettysburg or F&M). Or perhaps a team that lost to Denison head to head (W&L and F&M again)? Or perhaps a team that did win its championship but had a worse record and lost to Haverford? I don’t think any of those teams deserved #4. Denison is 4th seed because it has 2 top 10 regional wins over the ODAC double champion and the Centennial tourney 1 seed and 4 additional wins over top 17 regionally ranked teams. And the committee also remembers how well Denison plays in the tourney. Now past success isn’t a guarantee of future returns but have a look at Salisbury’s 2016 and 2017 tournament runs to their National Championships .... who played the Gulls the toughest both those years? Have a look and get back to me. So to lump Denison in with DeSales and say you don’t intend to be disparaging ... you aren’t being disparaging, your rather just showing your lack of knowledge about D3 lacrosse history both recent and just a few years ago. Or simply letting bias write your post and look stupid by doing so (oh and I don’t mean to disparage you BTW). Denison gets the 4 seed in the south because it earned it in the south!! Now do I admit they may get seeded higher than deserved some years due to travel considerations, yes that is true, but this isn’t one of them. And regardless, they have proved to the committee time and time again that they come to play! I am sure Gulls fans would give that to Denison at the very least.... I’m willing to bet Coach Berkman sure would.

And I think it interesting how some are picking IWU to beat the Big Red and face Salisbury! I guess they see something in this years IWU team that have them 15+ goals better than the last 2 years when DU beat IWU in the tourney 25-11 in ‘17 and and 25-9 in ‘18. Not saying it can’t happen, simply asking what areas they have improved that much in? Because I haven’t seen them play this year and curious to learn what I’ve missed.
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DeepPocket
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Re: NCAA Tournament

Post by DeepPocket »

Nosey Ned wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 10:17 pm...
And I think it interesting how some are picking IWU to beat the Big Red and face Salisbury! I guess they see something in this years IWU team that have them 15+ goals better than the last 2 years when DU beat IWU in the tourney 25-11 in ‘17 and and 25-9 in ‘18. Not saying it can’t happen, simply asking what areas they have improved that much in? Because I haven’t seen them play this year and curious to learn what I’ve missed.
I picked IWU over DU and admittedly, I too haven’t seen much play of either DU or IWU.

I did however catch their OWU games. I felt OWU not just outscored, but controlled DU until the 4th.

The IWU vs OWU game didn’t feel so lop sided for 3 quarters to me.

Then again, OWU was very streaky this year, and had glimpses of great play, and times where you were left wondering if things have really gotten this bad... so maybe they aren’t the best baseline common opponent for comparison. However I did watch those games, and since you’re asking why someone like me picked IWU, there it is. (Other scores vs common opponents of Rhodes and Depauw seem comparable too. What happened in 17’ and 18’ means nothing to me)
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Nosey Ned
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Re: D3 Men NCAA Tournament

Post by Nosey Ned »

We can nit pick .... 1st game DU outscored OWU 12 - 5 in the second half so I don’t agree it was 1 bad quarter for OWU in game one... that game DU was down 9-4 early 3rd Q and then DU just over powered OWU. And in yesterday’s game DU never trailed after about 5 min into 2nd quarter .... that was again not a 1 Q slip up. DU was clearly the better team in both games this year. Besides I think we can all agree rivalry games that run as deep as this one, they are a world unto themselves. Look no further than this year’s War on the Shore! Hard to use a rivalry game as a gauge in mutual opponents comparison. In my opinion.


As for IWU ....wasn’t OWU up 14-7 with 6 minutes left in the 3Q and OWU just collapsed? Not much of a back and forth. Different perspectives I guess .... we all see what we want to see. Now granted the scores of games from ‘17 and ‘18 don’t in and of themselves matter but the fact that we are talking about a 16 goal differential and that by default 60-70 percent of the rosters are the same ... there needs to be seismic changes somewhere in 1year to close a 16 goal gap and I was curious where that was coming from. Was being very serious with the question... IWU has made great strides in the last few years and was genuinely curious what I may have missed, that’s all. We are all entitled to our opinions.

And the beauty of this tournament is we won’t have to wait long for the teams to sort it out on the field and make us talking heads completely irrelevant.
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