Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

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RedFromMI
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Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

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Starting in the North:

#3 seed Mercyhurst Lakers (13-3) hosting #6 seed Merrimack (13-3)

Equal records, but both of these teams got here by quite different paths. Hurst opened the season against three South Region schools (although because of the ways that the NCAA calculates regions, these were not all out of region contests) - and after a 14-8 win over Wingate (South #5 seed in the tourney this year), lose two heartbreakers to Limestone (South #1 seed) 13-10 and Indy (#3 South seed) 11-9. Then after reeling off six straight wins fall to GMAC rival Seton Hill (# 5 North seed) 13-11, which allowed SHU to garner the regular season GMAC crown with a perfect 5-0 record. The Lakers bounced back to finish the regular season with six straight wins, including both a 10-2 shellacking of Mercy (#4 North seed and their only loss) and revenge over SHU in the GMAC conference tournament championship with a 14-10 victory that propelled them up to the #3 seed, making them the host of this game.

The defending National Champions Merrimack Warriors started the season ranked #1 in the USILA Coach's Poll, and after a dominating performance in last years 'ship looked good for a repeat. Opening wins over NYIT and Lake Erie kept them atop the rankings for four weeks, but then at LIU Post, who's FOGO (and star LB on the football team, second team all NE10 this year) Connor Farrell had a record setting 31/34 faceoff game, and a record 30 ground balls in this game, dropped a 17-16 overtime decision. Mack outscored Post 6-2 up until getting the go-ahead goal with 27 seconds left. But Post gets the ensuing faceoff and puts in the tying goal with 13 seconds left to send it into OT. Winning the opening faceoff and calling the timeout, Post scores the game winner 1:19 into the OT period.

That game dropped the Warriors all the way to seventh in the polls, but nine straight wins (including a huge comeback against Le Moyne, outscoring the 'Phins 7-2 in the fourth quarter to take a 12-11 squeaker) set them up for another big game with the Adelphi Panthers, who became the first team in 27 games to limit them to a single digit score, and the Warriors dropped this one 17-8 for their second loss of the season. That led to a three-way tie atop the NE10 regular season, but Mack got the #3 seed, and in the semifinals Le Moyne got their revenge with a pair of scores late in the fourth quarter (26 seconds left and 3 seconds left) to overcome the Warriors 12-11, thus leading to Merrimack dropping all the way to the North #6 seed.

The computer ratings: Fanlax says Merrimack #9 with #29th best SOS, Mercyhurst #6, #40th SOS. Masseyratings.com has Hurst at #6 with the #13 SOS, and Mack at #4 with the #3 SOS. KRACH says Hurst is #7 and Mack is #10, and if the teams play each other like the rest of their seasons Hurst has a 66% chance of winning.

Mack has seven players with an excess of 10 goals on the season led by Charlie Bertrand who leads the NCAA at 5 goals per game. Sean Black at (28, 55) and Christian Thomas at (40, 37) are huge contributors. Goalie Nick Ponte has the most starts at 10, with a 9.14 GAA and 0.569 save %, and five time starter Peter Brown is at 11.50 GAA and .383. FO averages 51.9% with Davis Cronin taking the bulk (192/296=64.9%). Team D gives up 9.81 GPG (#18 NCAA), and the #3 NCAA offense puts up 16.13 GPG.

Hurst as a team is just behind at 15.88 GPG (#4) offense, and D is #8 at 8.69 GPG. FOs are .467 (Ryan Jobson 106/176=60.2%). Seven also with over 10 GPG, led by Caleb Keuber (48, 21), Devin Pipher (35, 39) and Ben Smith-Wilcox (29, 22). Hunter Emerson 15 starts in goal (8.74, .514).

One stat edge that may be of interest: Mack is #3 nationally with a 47.2% man up scoring rate. (Hurst is #16 at 35.5%)

This one is a tough call - Lakers ended the season on a winning note, and just the opposite for the Warriors. But this is the last season for Merrimack playing a DII schedule, and they won't be immediately eligible for post-season play in DI. So maybe a little urgency here for Mack...

Winner faces #2 North seed Adelphi on Saturday.
Laxwarrior
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Re: Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

Post by Laxwarrior »

Sportsmerics.com has this as a Merrimack win 14-13
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admin
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Re: Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

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Red, so you're picking Mack?
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RedFromMI
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Re: Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

Post by RedFromMI »

admin wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 12:21 pm Red, so you're picking Mack?
I am edging that way, but this one could go either way. But if Mack is going to go down, it might well happen here. It's their last time in D2 (actually they remain in the division until the transition is complete, but they no longer have a D2 schedule after this year...)
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Re: Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

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RedFromMI
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Re: Preview of Wednesday's first round game: Hurst/Mack

Post by RedFromMI »

Domination by the Warriors - 16-5...Bertrand (6, 0), Black (0, 8) and Thomas (4, 1) to lead the scoring. Ponte in goal 10 saves of 14 SOG.

Stories:

Merrimack: https://merrimackathletics.com/news/201 ... hurst.aspx

Mercyhurst: https://hurstathletics.com/news/2019/5/ ... ?path=mlax

Sixth seed does not seem to matter for Mack...
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