So let's see where we are... This is what I posted about the big regular season games left to play a bit ago:
Regular season big games left:
4/13: Le Moyne @ Adelphi, Queens @ Catawba, Mercyhurst @ Mercy, Lindenwood @ Rockhurst
4/16: Adelphi @ Bentley, Assumption @ Merrimack
4/19: Rockhurst @ Indianapolis
4/20: Merrimack @ Adelphi, LIU Post @ Mercy, Limestone @ Mount Olive, Wingate @ Queens
4/27: Seton Hill @ LIU Post
5/4: Indianapolis @ Limestone
Plus conference tourneys, of course...
First two dates have passed - Le Moyne upsets Adelphi by 2, Queens is upset by Catawba by one, Mercyhurst puts a hurt on Mercy and Rockhurst doubles up Lindenwood. All those games affected the first posted regional ranking. Three of them probably affected the results we see - Adelphi drops to the #3 North spot, Mercy drops all the way to the last North position, and Queens falls to #3 South.
One the 16th --- no surprises with Adelphi and Mack strengthening their cases. Tonight Rockhurst gets a chance to make their case - and they do need this one. Indy needs it just as badly as they still have a conference tournament where they have a excellent chance of seeing this same matchup, and Indy has to travel to meet Stone on the second to last day of the regular season. There they will see a different Stone team than last year...
Tomorrow more huge games - and all ones we might well see again in conference tournaments. You can argue that each team on each side of those four matchups have a lot at stake. Adelphi/Mack for NE10 seeding/NCAA seeding (whichever of those two plus Le Moyne lands the #1/2 North seeds in the NCAAs gets to let the others beat up on each other first. Stone could end up #3 Conference Carolinas seed with a loss tomorrow (or to be clear it still could be #1 or #2... Queens/Wingate important for the SAC tourney seeding, and Wingate needs a win plus more for NCAA consideration. And Post is sitting outside at present - would love to swap places with Mercy...
4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Let's look at where Indy fits in all the categories (within the South region): #2 in region W/L, #2 on overall W/L, #20 in DII SOS, #2 in record against teams with a winning record, #25 in region SOS, and #12 in region only RPI. Probably with two losses no chance to be in the list. Tampa is tied for 6th with Wingate in region W/L, #9 in overall W/L, #2 in DII SOS, #7 in above .500, #2 in region SOS, #3 in RPI. You have explained common opponents, and head-to-head does not apply, nor presumably nullification (eligibility issues) or student-athlete availability. Indy is near the top recordwise with a weak schedule...HoundsDad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:59 am I know i am new to the board, but my take is you would hope common sense would prevail. Look at Tampa best wins over #17 LR and #20 Rollins. UIndy best wins #3 Seton Hill #8 MercyHurst #14 Lindenwood . Common opp Belmont Abbey, both losses and Lindenwood which UIndy beat 11-6. What does SOS mean when you lose 5 games?? Seems like the NCAA selection committee is set to send the same teams year in and year out to the tourney. UIndy and Rockhurst should not be penalized because they play in the midwest.
Having said that, SOS is calculated on the basis of what games have already been played - and the game tonight will give a boost to the SOS numbers even if Indy loses to Rockhurst. GLVC tournament will help again if the game tonight is replayed. As will (in a big way) the season ender...against Stone.
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
I don't see Indy playing stone? Shows Stone vs Mt Olive
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Saturday May 4 at 1 pm. In Gaffney.
UMO/Stone game is tomorrow...and I plan on being there...
UMO/Stone game is tomorrow...and I plan on being there...
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
So you are correct. Didn't scroll past the conference tournament on their schedule. Kinda strange to schedule a game after conf tourney?
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Stone schedules here every year to avoid a long layoff before the NCAAs...laxfan4all wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:43 am So you are correct. Didn't scroll past the conference tournament on their schedule. Kinda strange to schedule a game after conf tourney?
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Dodger - good point, and I'm doubly impressed by the roster scrolling and effort you took just to make that point.
It's either a thoughtful comment or smartass sarcasm. Learn to recognize the difference.
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Red, I think that you point something out that is the frustration in the regional rankings. UIndy didn't schedule a weak schedule. Their schedule included tough teams from the North region and the 2-0 mark against Seton Hill and Mercyhurst are what tells everyone that UIndy is deserving of consideration for the NCAA tournament. I believe the committee made an adjustment and added them at #6. Tampa benefits from a 1-2 record against northern teams not being considered in the Southern region rankings by the committee (Tampa got smoked by Adelphi at home, lost at home to Assumption and beat a bad NYIT team in NY). If you look at UIndy's and Tampa's common opponents, UIndy is 1-1 and Tampa is 0-2.
But, if someone tells me UIndy has to beat Rockhurst twice and Limestone to get into the tournament over Tampa who has to beat Lynn, Rollins or St. Leo, you're full of BS.
But, if someone tells me UIndy has to beat Rockhurst twice and Limestone to get into the tournament over Tampa who has to beat Lynn, Rollins or St. Leo, you're full of BS.
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
White, I've been following these teams for a few years. The hockey game between these two teams would make for interesting viewing as well...WhiteCarrera wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:14 pm Dodger - good point, and I'm doubly impressed by the roster scrolling and effort you took just to make that point.
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Not sure they have to beat Stone, unless they split with Rockhurst...they get the SOS boost whether they win or lose...dodger29 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:33 pm Red, I think that you point something out that is the frustration in the regional rankings. UIndy didn't schedule a weak schedule. Their schedule included tough teams from the North region and the 2-0 mark against Seton Hill and Mercyhurst are what tells everyone that UIndy is deserving of consideration for the NCAA tournament. I believe the committee made an adjustment and added them at #6. Tampa benefits from a 1-2 record against northern teams not being considered in the Southern region rankings by the committee (Tampa got smoked by Adelphi at home, lost at home to Assumption and beat a bad NYIT team in NY). If you look at UIndy's and Tampa's common opponents, UIndy is 1-1 and Tampa is 0-2.
But, if someone tells me UIndy has to beat Rockhurst twice and Limestone to get into the tournament over Tampa who has to beat Lynn, Rollins or St. Leo, you're full of BS.
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Red, If UIndy splits with Rockhurst either way UIndy will be 13-2 going into their game with Limestone. Even if Limestone wins, UIndy will be 13-3. What you are telling me is a 13-5 Tampa team is better and more deserving then that 13-3 UIndy team?
Then let's throw in Rockhurst in a split situation with UIndy they would have to finish at 11-3 (unfortunately Mesa got cancelled and Rockhurst is short on games or you may have Rockhurst at 12-3). In my humble opinion, either team with those records and their schedules would be ahead of Tampa for a NCAA tournament spot. Both UIndy and Rockhurst had common opponents and both UIndy and Rockhurst have better records against those common opponents than Tampa.
I get that I may hold a minority opinion on this (this is obviously how the NCAA committee feels). But, throwing around SOS when the Sunshine State Conf undoubtedly has an inflated SOS rating (just look at how many teams that the SSC clubs get to play at home or not leaving the state of Florida to play in "neutral site" contest...) to say the SSC should get a spot over a GLVC even when the GLVC teams have better records against common opponents seems like applying a bias in my book...
Then let's throw in Rockhurst in a split situation with UIndy they would have to finish at 11-3 (unfortunately Mesa got cancelled and Rockhurst is short on games or you may have Rockhurst at 12-3). In my humble opinion, either team with those records and their schedules would be ahead of Tampa for a NCAA tournament spot. Both UIndy and Rockhurst had common opponents and both UIndy and Rockhurst have better records against those common opponents than Tampa.
I get that I may hold a minority opinion on this (this is obviously how the NCAA committee feels). But, throwing around SOS when the Sunshine State Conf undoubtedly has an inflated SOS rating (just look at how many teams that the SSC clubs get to play at home or not leaving the state of Florida to play in "neutral site" contest...) to say the SSC should get a spot over a GLVC even when the GLVC teams have better records against common opponents seems like applying a bias in my book...
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Actually I trust my KRACH numbers as a better representation of who should get in. I think Tampa is too high as well. But given the criteria that the NCAA uses (including SOS approaches that have some issues statistically, see for example: http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/rpi.htm) I am only trying to explain the system so everyone can understand the methodology...dodger29 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:45 pm Red, If UIndy splits with Rockhurst either way UIndy will be 13-2 going into their game with Limestone. Even if Limestone wins, UIndy will be 13-3. What you are telling me is a 13-5 Tampa team is better and more deserving then that 13-3 UIndy team?
Then let's throw in Rockhurst in a split situation with UIndy they would have to finish at 11-3 (unfortunately Mesa got cancelled and Rockhurst is short on games or you may have Rockhurst at 12-3). In my humble opinion, either team with those records and their schedules would be ahead of Tampa for a NCAA tournament spot. Both UIndy and Rockhurst had common opponents and both UIndy and Rockhurst have better records against those common opponents than Tampa.
I get that I may hold a minority opinion on this (this is obviously how the NCAA committee feels). But, throwing around SOS when the Sunshine State Conf undoubtedly has an inflated SOS rating (just look at how many teams that the SSC clubs get to play at home or not leaving the state of Florida to play in "neutral site" contest...) to say the SSC should get a spot over a GLVC even when the GLVC teams have better records against common opponents seems like applying a bias in my book...
So a side-by side comparison of the NCAA results and the KRACH results from last Sunday (through the same games considered):
Code: Select all
North
Rank School (NCAA) School (KRACH)
1. Merrimack Adelphi
2. Le Moyne Le Moyne
3. Adelphi Merrimack
4. Seton Hill Mercyhurst
5. Mercyhurst Mercy
6. Mercy Seton Hill
---------------------
7. LIU Post LIU Post
8. Bentley Bentley
Code: Select all
South
Rank School (NCAA) School (KRACH)
1. Limestone Limestone
2. Belmont Abbey Belmont Abbey
3. Queens (NC) Indianapolis
4. Tampa Queens (NC)
5. Mount Olive Mount Olive
6. Indianapolis Wingate
---------------------
7. Catawba Rockhurst
8. Lynn Catawba
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
The big game in tonight - and an OT win for Indy. No difference in KRACH except the KRACH SOS goes up from #9 ranked to #7 (and Tampa's goes from #17 to #14)...
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Red, I get that you were just trying to explain the NCAA method (however flawed). Your KRACH rating doesn't have any SSC teams in the top 8, which seems sacrilege to many D2 lax observers.
As a fan of lax it is just frustrating to see an expanded NCAA field get high jacked by narrow thinking that only certain conferences have good teams.
If someone watched UIndy make an epic comeback to beat Rockhurst 12-11 in overtime just a few hours ago, they would realize that either of those teams can compete with anyone in the nation... It just seems the committee is stacking the odds against those teams. (Oh and today's result puts the GLVC doomsday scenario in play which is a UIndy split with Rockhurst and neither team getting an invite to the NCAA tournament...)
As a fan of lax it is just frustrating to see an expanded NCAA field get high jacked by narrow thinking that only certain conferences have good teams.
If someone watched UIndy make an epic comeback to beat Rockhurst 12-11 in overtime just a few hours ago, they would realize that either of those teams can compete with anyone in the nation... It just seems the committee is stacking the odds against those teams. (Oh and today's result puts the GLVC doomsday scenario in play which is a UIndy split with Rockhurst and neither team getting an invite to the NCAA tournament...)
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Now you’re saying the SSC is at an advantage because they play in florida and they have an inflated SOS? Their SOS is because they all have winning records and all play a fairly tough schedule. Why dont we just see how the rest of the games play out and see where the cards fall. And btw, there is no bias. The numbers speak for t themselves. The committee doesn’t pick and chose. Again...its a mathematical equation
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
The KRACH means nothing. Just like coaches poll, massey etc. there is only one scenerio. The NCAA
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Of course the NCAA has their system, however flawed. But there are better systems than what they use.laxfan4all wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:41 pm The KRACH means nothing. Just like coaches poll, massey etc. there is only one scenerio. The NCAA
And if it is just an equation that spits out a number, why have any committee? And why has the national committee overridden the regional committee in the past?
Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
Laxfan4all,
It is obvious that you have no issue with what the 4 member committee has put forth in their rankings. But, to be clear it is not a mathematical equation devoid of human opinion. Those 4 members decide the rankings in the end, guided by the statistical analysis that they have chosen. They can choose to use whatever method they like. They can change the statistics they refer to when they choose teams and they can choose to ignore the statistical analysis all by a vote at anytime during their process. In the end you are correct those 4 people will make the choice of who represents each of the regions in the NCAA tournament but to call it unbiased and a pure application of mathematics just isn't true my friend.
It is obvious that you have no issue with what the 4 member committee has put forth in their rankings. But, to be clear it is not a mathematical equation devoid of human opinion. Those 4 members decide the rankings in the end, guided by the statistical analysis that they have chosen. They can choose to use whatever method they like. They can change the statistics they refer to when they choose teams and they can choose to ignore the statistical analysis all by a vote at anytime during their process. In the end you are correct those 4 people will make the choice of who represents each of the regions in the NCAA tournament but to call it unbiased and a pure application of mathematics just isn't true my friend.
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
There may be better systems, but this is what we have. This happens every year, someone will always questions record vs SOS and RPI. Maybe the same teams that make it each year have figured it out. Dont schedule 1-14 teams.
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Re: 4/17/2019 Regional Rankings
To be clear. I agree. Dont think there is any team in the top 20 that couldnt compete with any other team. That was a great game this afternoon. It all comes down to the system in place. Truly believe on any given day any of these top teams could beat anybody