HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

HS Boys Lacrosse
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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QUESTION: Brunswick crushed BL, Hill beat Brunswick in OT, and, theoretically, BL beats Hill in OT. Of these three teams, are they equal? Or is Brunswick on top because they crushed BL? Or, I guess, maybe Hill and Brunswick are on top and BL is trailing them? How would you rank them?
Peter Brown
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by Peter Brown »

admin wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 am QUESTION: Brunswick crushed BL, Hill beat Brunswick in OT, and, theoretically, BL beats Hill in OT. Of these three teams, are they equal? Or is Brunswick on top because they crushed BL? Or, I guess, maybe Hill and Brunswick are on top and BL is trailing them? How would you rank them?

BL is not a good squad this year; they lost their top player in the first game and they are VERY young. In a theoretical matchup of Hill and BL this year, Hill would win by double digits.

To the extent BL win at all in the MIAA this year, it's strictly because the coaches know the other MIAA teams well and they can coach up against familiarity; when they play an unfamiliar team, they will lose this year.

Now, I hate to skip past this season while it's still in play, but I will be very interested to see BL's 2020 squad...they will be very strong as this team gets out of the sophomore heavy skills and showcase another year older, plus have Grimes back.
Oldlilaxer
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by Oldlilaxer »

wahoomurf wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:54 pm
LIlax88 wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:33 am You mentioned how we can have McDonogh as the #10 team if all the teams they have lost to are in the top 10 etc. How can we have Smithtown West ahead of GC when they lost at home to them and GC is undefeated? Another interesting case is Bayport Blue Point in the top 50 when they have 4 losses and their best win is over 5-4 Port Jefferson, who if you've watched them play isn't even a top 250 team in the country (and i've watched them play).
LIlax88: You're spitting into the wind.ADMIN wrote the rule book; ergo ADMIN is the sole arbiter of the rankings.
I was reading through this thread and happened upon the reply above. Everyone honestly sounds like they are trying to do the right thing and get the formula right (impossible task, but applaud the effort nonetheless), and this one really stood out. Maybe a little less 'whine' is needed, and a little more constructive criticism in it's place.
Let's see, Laxpower went out of business, and we had no replacement for it until this site popped-up. These guys are trying their best to provide us with a pool of information on our favorite sport like Laxpower used to do,and in my opinion are doing a fine job. I hate being a "kiss ass", but in this situation, I have no problem with it.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by wahoomurf »

Oldlilaxer wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:38 am
wahoomurf wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:54 pm
LIlax88 wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:33 am You mentioned how we can have McDonogh as the #10 team if all the teams they have lost to are in the top 10 etc. How can we have Smithtown West ahead of GC when they lost at home to them and GC is undefeated? Another interesting case is Bayport Blue Point in the top 50 when they have 4 losses and their best win is over 5-4 Port Jefferson, who if you've watched them play isn't even a top 250 team in the country (and i've watched them play).
LIlax88: You're spitting into the wind.ADMIN wrote the rule book; ergo ADMIN is the sole arbiter of the rankings.
I was reading through this thread and happened upon the reply above. Everyone honestly sounds like they are trying to do the right thing and get the formula right (impossible task, but applaud the effort nonetheless), and this one really stood out. Maybe a little less 'whine' is needed, and a little more constructive criticism in it's place.

Let's see, Laxpower went out of business, and we had no replacement for it until this site popped-up. These guys are trying their best to provide us with a pool of information on our favorite sport like Laxpower used to do,and in my opinion are doing a fine job. I hate being a "kiss ass", but in this situation, I have no problem with it.
Whine is,IMO, a tad harsh.BTW, there were and are, quite a few replacements for Laxpower.Seek and ye shall find.FanLax is but one. It's your prerogative to kiss whomever, whenever,wherever you choose to smooch. Chacun à son goût.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by ctbagataway »

admin wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 am QUESTION: Brunswick crushed BL, Hill beat Brunswick in OT, and, theoretically, BL beats Hill in OT. Of these three teams, are they equal? Or is Brunswick on top because they crushed BL? Or, I guess, maybe Hill and Brunswick are on top and BL is trailing them? How would you rank them?
Thought I had replied earlier, but I see this question by admin more as a theoretical question for modelling purposes, and I think it highlights the need to include goal differential in the equation, as well as potentially OT vs. non-OT. In this theoretical case. BW beat BL by 8 but lost to Hill in OT. BL loses by 8 to BW but beats Hill in OT. Hill would have one OT win and one OT loss. All three teams would be 1-1. I would rank BL the lowest based on their lopsided loss. The harder question is how to rank BW and Hill. In this case, I would give the edge to BW since one of their wins was by a wide margin. But it sure does highlight how hard it is to design a ranking system that is purely model based. I think you have to use goal differential (even if that number is capped at some amount to adjust for the fact that some teams sub earlier than others). I would also include OT vs. non-OT. Even though both are one goal losses, I just feel that the losing team in an OT win pushed the winner that much harder to get the victory, showing that the two teams are more evenly matched than a 1 goal game that ends in regulation.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by kramerica.inc »

Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:58 am
admin wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:15 am QUESTION: Brunswick crushed BL, Hill beat Brunswick in OT, and, theoretically, BL beats Hill in OT. Of these three teams, are they equal? Or is Brunswick on top because they crushed BL? Or, I guess, maybe Hill and Brunswick are on top and BL is trailing them? How would you rank them?
BL is not a good squad this year; they lost their top player in the first game and they are VERY young. In a theoretical matchup of Hill and BL this year, Hill would win by double digits.

To the extent BL win at all in the MIAA this year, it's strictly because the coaches know the other MIAA teams well and they can coach up against familiarity; when they play an unfamiliar team, they will lose this year.

Now, I hate to skip past this season while it's still in play, but I will be very interested to see BL's 2020 squad...they will be very strong as this team gets out of the sophomore heavy skills and showcase another year older, plus have Grimes back.
I love your insight, Peter, but I don't share your thoughts on BL. I think their performance and the coaching going on there has been pretty good, all things considered. They undoubtedly experienced some growing pains after losing Grimes. Any team would. But despite being a flawed team lacking their usual midfield and attack depth, they are still in the thick of the MIAA hunt. And that schedule is a real grind- scouting or no scouting! I watched (in person) Hill beat two of the "A" leagues bottom teams - JC (11-6) and Spalding (22-12). And BL is clearly better than both squads. So I find it highly unlikely Hill would ring up a double digit win over BL like it did Spalding.

Anyway, as far as ratings are concerned, I find myself using laxbytes.com for college and laxnumbers.com for high school.

Both are run by the OG Laxpower guys. And there is some comfort in their website organization and methodology if you're used to Laxpower's organization.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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To each their own. Which is why it's great that we have numerous options. Personally, especially after yesterday's game, LB/LN's Brunswick at #1 and Hill at #11 doesn't hold water but, again, to each their own. Hill beat the current #1 (and #6), their only loss is to the #2, and... They're #11. I dunno. I'm sure someone will reply with a, But Brunswick is leaving everyone in their wake! and... I still don't see it. For me, crushing teams you're ranked well ahead of is meaningless. #1 beats #86 and... We learn nothing. Even if you beat them by 20. Hill beats Brunswick, that is extremely meaningful. That's why we keep track of Big Games, Big Wins, Big Upsets, etc. Because these games are meaningful. #1 beats #86... Meaningless. I do think there's a place for Margin of Victory (MOV) but... To each their own. Whatever. Bottomline, we have a different Computer Ranking system. And, with that said...

CTBag, yes, it was a theoretical question. I'm interested in BL, etc. so I enjoy the other responses, too, but, yes, I'm asking because, as mentioned above, I want to switch our MOV function from 0 to something. In this theoretical model, I would also rank BL the lowest. Losing by that kind of margin should involve a greater loss of Points. As for B'wick and Hill, not as obvious. I think the solution is to let each team earn their Points for their Ws and Ls, earn their Bonus Points for their MOVs, and... See where the chips fall. Either way, I'm curious. Either way, we'll try some different iterations until we get it right and then we'll share it with you.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by kramerica.inc »

The best part is that this is all like ice cream or pizza.
You may prefer one flavor or methodology over another, but it's all good! It's awesome to be able to analyze the game the way we do today. We weren't able to have this type of fun when i was a kid. We just always heard some old fart spout that Gilman or Hopkins was the best, end of story. Nice to put some algebra to the test and show that there is some other great lax out there, away from Charles Street!
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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Agreed. E-Mailed with Massey (I like his Computer Rankings. I also like that he has a completely different methodology from us yet our results are so similar. When I have a gaggle of D1 Women lacrosse fans telling me how ridiculous it is that i have Florida ahead of Loyola and w, X, Y, and Z all have it the other way and I'm looking at the records and games and scores and numbers and I still think Florida should be ahead and... I check with Massey and, at least I'm not alone. I personally believe there's a lot of group think in the world of lacrosse so, as long as it makes rational sense, i like that there are different perspectives...) anyway, e-mailed with Massey and he asked about HS lacrosse. I'm hoping he puts that into his mix.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by Peter Brown »

I appreciate anyone putting the time in to do rankings. So kudos, Admin.

Now on to BL. Kramerica, I dunno, I saw some games, and they looked )charitably) tentative and small. Maybe that is my eyes confirming what one of the parents was telling me, that they are "young", but I didn't see (as Ty Xanders would say) much 'D1 talent on the field'. I do think they will return next year stronger.

But this year, I think the Brunswick and Culver games told you what you need to know about BL, just not ready for the big boys. You can argue that they beat a good McDonogh squad, but McDonogh might be the strangest record team in the country this year, and I would love to know the reasons behind that.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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admin wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:28 pm To each their own. Which is why it's great that we have numerous options. Personally, especially after yesterday's game, LB/LN's Brunswick at #1 and Hill at #11 doesn't hold water but, again, to each their own. Hill beat the current #1 (and #6), their only loss is to the #2, and... They're #11. I dunno. I'm sure someone will reply with a, But Brunswick is leaving everyone in their wake! and... I still don't see it. For me, crushing teams you're ranked well ahead of is meaningless. #1 beats #86 and... We learn nothing. Even if you beat them by 20. Hill beats Brunswick, that is extremely meaningful. That's why we keep track of Big Games, Big Wins, Big Upsets, etc. Because these games are meaningful. #1 beats #86... Meaningless. I do think there's a place for Margin of Victory (MOV) but... To each their own. Whatever. Bottomline, we have a different Computer Ranking system. And, with that said...

CTBag, yes, it was a theoretical question. I'm interested in BL, etc. so I enjoy the other responses, too, but, yes, I'm asking because, as mentioned above, I want to switch our MOV function from 0 to something. In this theoretical model, I would also rank BL the lowest. Losing by that kind of margin should involve a greater loss of Points. As for B'wick and Hill, not as obvious. I think the solution is to let each team earn their Points for their Ws and Ls, earn their Bonus Points for their MOVs, and... See where the chips fall. Either way, I'm curious. Either way, we'll try some different iterations until we get it right and then we'll share it with you.
Crushing the 86th best team in the country by 20 goals seems pretty impressive to me. Not as impressive as a top 10 win, but to say it tells us nothing is exaggerated. I also don't know if you can really say that the LN system doesn't hold water because the #11 team beat the #1 team in OT. That seems rather unforgiving given that when you get to the top 10 teams, anything can happen on any given day. Imagine a team from year's past that was almost unanimously regarded as the best in the country -- like a 2014 BL or 2015 Haverford. Those teams went unbeaten. They likely would have finished #1 in laxnumbers' and fanlaxs' ratings system. If you added an extra hypothetical game against the #11 team, and they had lost in OT (not out of the question -- BL almost lost at home to a good, but not top 25 St. Mary's squad that year), would that have been an indictment of the ratings system as not holding water? I think not. This is not to say that Brunswick is the best team in the nation and that Hill got lucky -- just an observation that in principal the #1 team losing to the #11 team in OT is not completely incompatible with any rankings or ratings system given the unpredictability of sports.

As you pointed out with the fanlax ratings, these ranking will get better and better with more games/data, with teams jostling up and down a few spots. But I'd say that at present the tiers already seem fairly accurate even if the teams in each tier might not be in the right order.

MOV has come into the discussion now, but I think another factor that would be interesting to look at is home-field advantage (laxnumbers doesn't seem to factor it into their formula). It's not talked about as much, but it is a big factor in the game: St. Anthony's has only won one game at Chaminade in more than a decade, and someone mentioned that St. Mary's win at BL was their first since 1991. Darien hasn't lost at home since 2013.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by laxdad30 »

Can I ask where you are pulling the team records from?
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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Peter Brown wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:17 pm... but McDonogh might be the strangest record team in the country this year, and I would love to know the reasons behind that.
If McDonogh's schedule was the only schedule that existed, we'd think McDonogh was better than every other team in the nation and then several MIAA teams are better than McDonogh.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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laxdad30 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:28 pmCan I ask where you are pulling the team records from?
As we had this dropped on our lab relatively last minute, we've been looking everywhere and, thankfully, lots of coaches and fans are also chipping in. Next season will be a very different animal.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

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The point is that beating Kent should give you a small fraction of Points compared to when you beat Hill. The #11 team has beaten #1 and #6 and their only loss is to #2 and they're #11? MOV matters. But Ws and Ls matter more.

The FanLax was up and running immediately. the issue was/is that the Rankings weren't 100% in 2019 until after game 5. but when we were off, it was only because a team was really good in 2018 and not so much in 2019 or vice-versa and... That was gone after game 5. At this point in the season, to have "tiers" doesn't make sense.

Homefield advantage... Several do. But not our thing as our interest is purely historical team performances. If a team wins at home or away, our only interest is whether they won or lost and by how much.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by random observer »

admin wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:13 pm The point is that beating Kent should give you a small fraction of Points compared to when you beat Hill. The #11 team has beaten #1 and #6 and their only loss is to #2 and they're #11? MOV matters. But Ws and Ls matter more.

The FanLax was up and running immediately. the issue was/is that the Rankings weren't 100% in 2019 until after game 5. but when we were off, it was only because a team was really good in 2018 and not so much in 2019 or vice-versa and... That was gone after game 5. At this point in the season, to have "tiers" doesn't make sense.

Homefield advantage... Several do. But not our thing as our interest is purely historical team performances. If a team wins at home or away, our only interest is whether they won or lost and by how much.
I was using tiers as a figure of speech. Most ppl will agree on who generally are the top 10 or so teams in the nation are so far. I think Laxnumbers captures that, even if they aren’t all in the right order yet. Same for further down in the rankings.

Brunswick didn’t get a high ranking for beating up on Kent. It got a high ranking for beating up on Taft, BL, New Canaan, Deerfield, and Penn Charter. Of that group only Deerfield is a top 25 team, but the rest are all quality opponents and Wick blew them away in a manner that only a half dozen teams are capable of. Better yet, they did it to all of them — no slip ups. I would suggest looking at the actual math for laxnumbers, because they show that Wick was punished simply for playing Kent — despite hitting the MOV cap, the Kent win is Wicks lowest game score by far.

Likewise, Hill Academy’s rating took a hit because they got mauled by Culver and they just eked by LaSalle who has taken heavy beatings from the likes of Haverford and Seton Hall Prep. I think the best way to evaluate a team is to evaluate data from every performance, not just the best ones. And those were two very bad performances from a top 5 caliber team. That’s two more bad performances than the two teams Hill beat in OT (Calvert Hall and Wick) have combined.
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by wahoomurf »

FlyerFan2001 wrote: Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:43 pm
wahoomurf wrote: Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:34 pm
LIlax88 wrote: Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:05 pm https://www.mcdonogh.org/athletics/team ... rosse/2178

Murf, I’m pretty sure that McDonogh (MD)’s own school website wouldn’t have their schedule wrong, and they played St Anthony’s on 4/20.
Wow.When Newsday screws up,they do so,royally. Wrong state,crazy record (1-22 :roll: ),incorrect spelling.At least they had the sport right. ;)
So, what that really means is that of the non-state/Non-LI schools that have played against LI teams, the record is 1-22...The reason for this is that is not uncommon that when they lose, the LI school simply does not report the game...But when they win, they always report it to receive credit.
FF2001/LIlax88: Either Newsday hasn't a clue about Lacrosse or they simply don't givva.Why? Probably due the lack of interest in that sport here on Long Island.College lacrosse coaches avoid Long Island like the plague.Compared with number of athletes that have won NCAA Championships in other sports it's not at all surprising.Look at the number of L.I. athletes who've help their teams win Championships in hoops,baseball and 'rasslin. :roll:

How lazy or inept are the sports staff at Newsday? Today Manhasset played a team, Lincoln-Sudbury (Massachusetts) and beat them 18-6. According to Newsday, Lincoln-Sudbury has an overall 1 - 26 record and a conference record of 0 - 7. Look familiar?

Addendum:L-S has a W-L record of 7-2 .I cop to being an inveterate Luddite.I googled L-S.Took me all of 30 seconds to find their website. ;)
Last edited by wahoomurf on Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
grelch
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by grelch »

Was that part of the Geico showcase, or is that still forthcoming?
FlyerFan2001
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by FlyerFan2001 »

grelch wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:15 pm Was that part of the Geico showcase, or is that still forthcoming?
Forthcoming...

Saturday/Sunday at St. Anthony's
wahoomurf
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Re: HS Boys National and Regional Rankings

Post by wahoomurf »

What other teams are playing in this event?Would you please post a schedule if you have one available? Thank you.
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