D1 Men Rankings

D1 Mens Lacrosse
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by DU-fan »

oldbartman wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:42 pm
DU-fan wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:08 pm
calourie wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:49 am Putting this back on page one to get the bickering going. Top teams drifting up or down starting to establish what I consider tiers, which for my list I will separate. This doesn't mean that any team can't beat any other team on this list (which this year seems more the case than perhaps ever). Here's my shot:

!. Duke
2. Penn State
3. Yale
4. Maryland
5. Ohio State

6. Cornell (only because they took down Towson who took down Loyola)
7. Towson
8. Loyola
9. High Point
10. Virginia
11. Notre Dame
12. Denver
13. Syracuse
14. Georgetown

15. Lehigh
16. Johns Hopkins
17. Penn
18. Army
19. North Carolina
20. UMass

Also considered: Richmond. Hobart. BU, Delaware, Rutgers

Have at it FanLaxers
I agree with your rankings with minor differences.

New Old Team Week's Result
1 1  Penn State (6 - 1) DNP
2 2  Duke (8 - 1) Beat Towson
3 4  Yale (4 - 1) Beat Cornell
4 6  Maryland (7 - 1) Beat Nova
5 9  Ohio State (6 - 0) DNP
6 3  Cornell (4 - 2) Lost to Yale
7 5  Towson (5 - 2) Lost to Duke
8 8  Loyola (5 - 2) Beat Navy
9 10  High Point (7 - 1) Beat VMI
10 12  Virginia (5 - 2) Beat ND
11 7  Notre Dame (3 - 2) Lost to UVA
12 11  Denver (4 - 2) DNP
13 13  Syracuse (4 - 2) Beat Rutgers
14 14  Georgetown (7 - 1) Beat Drexel
15 16  Lehigh (4 - 3) Beat Lafayette
16 17  Johns Hopkins (4 - 3) Beat Delaware
17 18  Army (6 - 2) Beat Holy Cross
18 20  Penn (3 - 3) Beat Princeton
19 21 Richmond (5-3) Beat Furman
20 24 North Carolina (6-2) Beat CSU
21 25 Hobart (5-1) Beat Wagner
22 28 UMass (5-3) Beat Utah
23 29 Boston University (6-2) Beat Bucknell
24 15  Rutgers (4 - 4) Lost to SU
25 19  Colgate (3 - 3) Lost to Hobart
26 22 Villanova (3-4) Lost to MD
27 23 Navy (4-3) Lost to Loyola
28 26 Princeton (2-4) Lost to Penn
29 27 Delaware (6-2) Lost to Hopkins
Correction. Colgate lost to Canisius. Gate plays Hobart on Tuesday.
I hope I did not jinx Colgate. I see Hobart is beating them 10-3 through 3 quarters.
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Hawkeye
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Hawkeye »

HooDat wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:50 am
Homer wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:10 pm I don't know of any other sport that gets remotely close to that.
all true - but then the NC$$ get's to have their cake and eat it too on the football front. Technically there are only 4 "tournament teams" but effectively half or more of the programs play bowl games.....

what was that you said....?....
wgdsr wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:56 pm but the nc$$ likes to bend rules for semantics.

unfortunately, they typically only like to do that when they're making money
The D1 FBS football playoff is neither sanctioned nor recognized by the NCAA. It would have to have at least 20 teams in it to be NCAA approved.

Contrary to what has been mentioned in this thread, I am not aware of a maximum percentage of teams in a division that can make the playoffs. What is true however, is that all conferences that meet the minimum membership criteria must be granted an AQ and there must be at least as many at-large berths as AQs.

The lacrosse tournament has skirted the at-large >= AQ rule through "play-in" games lately. You also saw this in the D1 basketball tournament for years (following the creation of the MWC) when they went to 65. At that point, there were 33 AQs and 32 at-larges, with two AQs being relegated to "playing in."
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

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Hawkeye wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:52 pmWhat is true however, is that all conferences that meet the minimum membership criteria must be granted an AQ and there must be at least as many at-large berths as AQs.
So I guess if the ACC gained a team, they would quality for an AQ, and the NCAA would add an at-large berth so the tournament would grow to 18 or 19 from 17.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Hawkeye »

DU-fan wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:37 pm
Hawkeye wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:52 pmWhat is true however, is that all conferences that meet the minimum membership criteria must be granted an AQ and there must be at least as many at-large berths as AQs.
So I guess if the ACC gained a team, they would quality for an AQ, and the NCAA would add an at-large berth so the tournament would grow to 18 or 19 from 17.
Yes, this is correct. It's why the tournament went to 18 for 3 seasons (2014-2016) when the ACC had 6 teams (14) and then the waiver years (15/16).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NCAA ... ampionship

I am in favor of expansion to 24, but I think we need a little more growth in terms of teams playing to get there.

I should @GTAA to go ahead and go full varsity with our lacrosse team :D (I wish) . The ACC would have an AQ again then!
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Hawkeye
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Hawkeye »

Homer wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:10 pm
I'm not sure if it's a "rule" or more of a rough guideline, but I think the NCAA tries to keep tournament participation to around 15-20% of the total # of teams for D1 sports. Maybe somebody knows the exact number. Going up to 24 would be 1/3 of D1 getting in and almost certainly would never happen. I don't know of any other sport that gets remotely close to that.
If I counted right (no guarantee that I did), 16 out of 54 made the dance in 2004.

Next season we will be at 75 D1 teams.

16/54 = 29.6%
24/75 = 32%
Are these really all that different?

(17/75 = 22.66% by the way)
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Cooter »

While I'd like the ACC pick up a 6th team and get an AQ, and thus push D1 back to 18. 24 seems a little much at this time.

17 makes it a nice accomplishment to make the NCAA tmt.
Once you get out there around #20, you are getting a bunch of teams that were pretty inconsistent. With the parity in lacrosse, they might upset a top team on a given day, but they lose a large number of other games. With 24, you will probably also be getting almost all of the Big Ten and ACC.
While there is always a nice fight over who should be the last at-large team or two, there have actually been a few years where I haven't felt the last at-large team or two was really that deserving.
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CU77
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by CU77 »

Basketball: 68/347 = 19.6%
Baseball: 64/299 = 21.4%
Soccer: 48/206 = 23.3%
Lacrosse: 17/75 = 22.3%
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Homer »

Thanks CU for posting the actual numbers. Farfromgeneva's memory was better than mine -- looks like the average is in the 20-24% range and not slightly lower as I'd recalled. Again I'm not suggesting there's a formal rule, but it's my impression this is the ballpark range they try to maintain for rough parity across sports.

Hawkeye wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:56 pm If I counted right (no guarantee that I did), 16 out of 54 made the dance in 2004.

Next season we will be at 75 D1 teams.

16/54 = 29.6%
24/75 = 32%
Are these really all that different?

(17/75 = 22.66% by the way)
What that says to me, coupled with the numbers CU posted, is that mlax has been on the high side for tournament spots ever since the expansion to 16 in 2003. It's only just now getting back into more normal proportions with the recent growth. Add another 6-7 teams to D1 and maybe pushing the tournament out to 20 becomes a reasonable ask.

Cooter wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:56 pm While I'd like the ACC pick up a 6th team and get an AQ, and thus push D1 back to 18. 24 seems a little much at this time.

17 makes it a nice accomplishment to make the NCAA tmt.
Once you get out there around #20, you are getting a bunch of teams that were pretty inconsistent. With the parity in lacrosse, they might upset a top team on a given day, but they lose a large number of other games. With 24, you will probably also be getting almost all of the Big Ten and ACC.
While there is always a nice fight over who should be the last at-large team or two, there have actually been a few years where I haven't felt the last at-large team or two was really that deserving.
Totally agree.
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admin
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by admin »

Take some deep breaths, look at this Computer Ranking, look closer at each team's Ws and Ls, and... I wouldn't bet on these rankings but they make sense and, for some, may be mind expanding.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by DaneFan »

Can't really argue with it.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by FannOLax »

admin wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:43 am Take some deep breaths, look at this Computer Ranking, look closer at each team's Ws and Ls, and... I wouldn't bet on these rankings but they make sense and, for some, may be mind expanding.
Top 5 and 20 look pretty good; seeing Fairfield (#27) ranked two notches better than UMass (#29) is well, likely to change once the two have met head-to-head, I dare say. Michigan at #46 and Princeton at #55 are very different from pre-season expectations, but not out of line with results on the field.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by admin »

Can't argue but post the rankings outside of FanLax and heads explode. High Point?! Maryland?! etc.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by HooDat »

Nothing shocked me. But I bet there are some folks who will see where "their" team ended up, and blame the math....
STILL somewhere back in the day....

...and waiting/hoping for a tinfoil hat emoji......
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Homer wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:11 pm Thanks CU for posting the actual numbers. Farfromgeneva's memory was better than mine -- looks like the average is in the 20-24% range and not slightly lower as I'd recalled. Again I'm not suggesting there's a formal rule, but it's my impression this is the ballpark range they try to maintain for rough

Totally agree.
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CU77
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by CU77 »

admin wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:43 am Take some deep breaths, look at this Computer Ranking, look closer at each team's Ws and Ls, and... I wouldn't bet on these rankings but they make sense and, for some, may be mind expanding.
High Point at #6 is the outlier here. laf/laxbytes/laxpower has them at #16, Massey at #18:
http://www.laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/moving01.php
https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings

On the other hand, KRACH agrees that High Point is #6:
https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/Z-MLX.HTM
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by stupefied »

Top 20 looks fine though Id have Maryland a lot higher #3 perhaps and Denver somewhere in 11-15 grouping. Know more about where undefeated OSU should be soon. Cornell may be a bit high, probably have them is 6-10 grouping
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by Hawkeye »

Homer wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:11 pm Add another 6-7 teams to D1 and maybe pushing the tournament out to 20 becomes a reasonable ask.
The structure of 24 is much cleaner than 20. Why I would not advocate for expansion beyond what is necessary to meet the AQ/At-large balance requirements until 24 is reasonable.

8 hosts. 8 pods of three.

Round 1:
Thursday/Friday at host sites (top 8 seeds). Winner plays host on Saturday/Sunday
(Just like now, geography and "integrity of the bracket" both play a factor in deciding who goes where)

Round 2 - round of 16
Saturday/Sunday at host sites (top 8 seeds)

Quarterfinals and championship weekend same as now.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by admin »

CU77, Krach and Bytes are RPI based. I think Massey is too but I'm not 100% sure. They're always going to match to some level. FanLax isn't RPI based so any similarities are, i think, more meaningful. also, with rpi based models, it takes a lot of games before "they work". Ours should work after a handful or less games.

stupe, don't forget, the ranking is 100% W and L based. I'd also put Maryland higher but the computer says, Only based on Ws and Ls and... UMd's Ws aren't overly impressive.
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CU77
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by CU77 »

admin wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:43 pm CU77, Krach and Bytes are RPI based.

No, they're not. I'm thoroughly familiar with how both are computed, and they have nothing to do with RPI. (They're also quite different from each other; Bytes is based solely on goal differential, while KRACH uses only wins and losses.) Massey doesn't reveal his detailed formula, but from his description of it it's clear that it's not related to RPI either.
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Re: Inside Lacrosse rankings

Post by 44WeWantMore »

My understanding is that while Lax Bytes starts with the goal differential, it normalizes it in two sensible ways:
- It adjusts for Home Field Advantage.
- It collapses run-away scores so a blow-out and a comfortable margin of victory have similar impact.
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