Lacrosse Analytics

D1 Mens Lacrosse
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laxreference
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

Post by laxreference »

Gobigred wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:46 pm
This is hilarious. So Pettersen got 6.32 positive points and Tuttle got at least 7.06 for scoring 5/1 against Hartford. Ahahahaha. Ridiculous.
Here are the stat lines for those two players. Might help shed some light on how the model tries to compare two players:

Petterson against Towson:
Unassisted Goal - 3
Assisted Goal - 5
Ground Ball - 3
Saved Shot - 2
Unforced Turnover - 1
Forced Turnover - 1
Penalty (1 min) - 3
Total EGA: 4.99

Tuttle against Hartford:
Unassisted Goal - 4
Missed Shot - 5
Ground Ball - 5
Assisted Goal - 1
Assist - 1
Blocked Shot - 1
Saved Shot - 1
Forced Turnover - 1
Total EGA - 7.06

I think the bigger gripe I would having in trying to compare these two would be based on the strength of the opponent. Hartford is one of the worst teams in D1. But part of the point of this list is to highlight players who had a great game who may not get a lot of national spotlight. Adding an opponent adjustment would make that impossible.
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laxreference
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

Post by laxreference »

As always, here is the daily digest for Mar 12, 2019.
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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PSA: I have updated the win probability page with upcoming games as well as the current and past games. In addition the individual game links will have a much more detailed preview going forward.

I plan to add more content to the preview pages over time, but this at least gives you a chance to see what to expect.

Happy lacrosse weekend.
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Fairfield vs Utah
- VMI vs High Point
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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That was kind of incredible. For 41 of the games 60 minutes, ND outscored UVA 11-6. They were better in just about every metric, except for faceoffs, where they were even.

But for 19 minutes, it was like the polarity of the game was reversed. UVA dominated every stat category with the lone exception: faceoffs (ND won 5 of 6).

The end result was that UVA scored 7 straight goals to turn a 5-goal deficit into a 2-goal lead. Coach Corrigan's mission from here on out is to do whatever is necessary to make sure that 19 minute stretch doesn't show up any more this year.

Full recap post is here .
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

Post by laxreference »

As always, here is the daily digest for Mar 16, 2019.
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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We are up and running on UMass vs Utah
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Monday morning tradition: here is the weekly list of top individual player performances .

Yale Freshman Matt Brandau topped the list with his performance against Cornell. Scary thought that Yale may have added a top-flight offensive option to pair with their FO advantage.

Woodall, Spencer, Ierlan, Spence, Gray made an appearance as well.

And here is the infographic:
PlayerGame_visualization(20190318).png
PlayerGame_visualization(20190318).png (58.21 KiB) Viewed 2274 times
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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9 games on the schedule this afternoon and evening. Giddy up.

I have add a "Trending Up or Down" section to the stats-based previews for each game as well. Here is ND vs Michigan as an example.
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Updated list of Live Win Probability Links

- Colgate vs Hobart
- Quinnipiac vs Hartford
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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As always, here is the daily digest for Mar 19, 2019.
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whaley
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

Post by whaley »

THE FO ISN'T AS IMPORTANT AS I THOUGHT IT WAS

I had the opportunity to watch ND beat Michigan 12 to 9 on Tuesday and witness Charlie Leonard win 20 of 24 faceoffs. Most of us (myself included) concluded that the ND victory came because of their FO dominance.

I was wrong.

From the game log, ND had 42.5 possessions and Michigan had 32.5. (Any possession cut short by the end of a quarter is counted as ½ in recognition that it was “unresolved”.)

The source of the 10 possession advantage is equal parts FO success (21 to 4 if we count the one possession awarded to ND in lieu of a FO due to a dead ball penalty on Michigan) and goal advantage (12 to 9). This illustrates “the law of possession advantage” in that 10 = 17/2 + 3/2.
If interested, you can read more about the law of possession advantage here. https://www.darden.virginia.edu/uploade ... ssions.pdf

But was it the 10 extra possessions that led to the ND victory?

To answer, lets look at how efficient the teams were with their possessions. ND scored on 12 of 42.5 possessions (0.282) compared to 9 of 32.5 (0.277) for Michigan. ND was more efficient!

So ND was better at the FO, but they were also slightly better in the field. Although it is possible for a team to use FO success to overcome an efficiency disadvantage, that was not the case here. ND had both a FO and field-play advantage.

The 3-page note referenced above proposes a way to compare FO and Field Play success…so that we can better understand the importance of the FO in determining game outcomes.
RedIvy
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

Post by RedIvy »

I think this takes the numbers side to far.... seems efficiency was reasonably close and had FO been even this game might have become a down to the wire game. Not being able to win FO’s likely changes how you play the game knowing possessions may be limited (which may cause a lower efficiency with a more conservative offense) there are many intangibles that loosing at the X drives (similar to having weak goal tending) that this simplistic view does not consider.

This is not to say that poor FO performance can’t be overcome but it requires other striengths, (limited turnovers, goal tending man up/down effeciency, ground ball play.....). Like all parts of the game FO’s matter and a team is the sum of its strengths and weaknesses on any given day.
laxreference
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Re: Lacrosse Analytics

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RedIvy wrote: Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:38 pm I think this takes the numbers side to far....
Never!!!!

But in all seriousness, I think it's possible to like the concept and agree with the crux of your post, which I interpreted to be: there are so many moving parts in a lacrosse team that distilling performance into these 2 numbers is too simplistic. And I certainly wouldn't disagree with that.

On the other hand, I like the concept of FO Advantage vs Field Advantage because it helps to test team stereotypes in an objective way, especially when you aggregate a team's games across a season or a player's games across a career.

I think of something I read Tierney saying at the beginning of the season. It was along the lines of "Yes, Baptiste was very good, but our team was pretty good too." (Sorry Coach, I'm sure I'm misquoting). This concept provides an objective way to distill Denver's success into Baptiste vs the rest of the team (and that is one benefit of the FOGO usually sprinting off the field after his contribution is made).

Also, it could be interesting to dive into one of your main points: how does FOGO performance (or under-performance) affect the way that the rest of the team operates. How does a FO Advantage affect the Field Play splits. Do offenses that get conservative because they fear a FO Disadvantage shoot themselves in the foot. All interesting questions and being able to split a game into FO Adv vs Field Adv might help frame that analysis.
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