THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

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44WeWantMore
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 44WeWantMore »

But, realistically, how many on-field difference-makers were Pre-med / STEM? In my day, none. Sure, some of the bench, but none of the starters.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:26 pm Image
This graph could be true for a number of programs but 2015 marked the first season in which recruiting classes were 11-12 players deep with kids that had committed 3 full years before they arrived on campus and it went earlier after that with even more players committed to a class.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by primitiveskills »

44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:50 pm But, realistically, how many on-field difference-makers were Pre-med / STEM? In my day, none. Sure, some of the bench, but none of the starters.
Not many, I suspect. Going back a ways, off the top of my head, Les Matthews and Del Dressel. Not sure about more recent vintage.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by CU77 »

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 amNo gray or white smoke from the chimney.

They are not going to cause a distraction prior to nor during their hosting of wlax.

After that?
After that, nothing. No admin is going to fire a coach (before the end of his contract!) who led his team to the #8 ranking (end-of-regular-season RPI) in the country with the #1 strength of schedule (NCAA computation method) in the country, a #2 finish in arguably the strongest conference in the country, after an OT loss in the conf final to the #1 team in the country.

Ain't happening. Sorry. You want a new coach, your team needs to do a lot worse first.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 44WeWantMore »

CU77 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:11 pm
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 amNo gray or white smoke from the chimney.

They are not going to cause a distraction prior to nor during their hosting of wlax.

After that?
After that, nothing. No admin is going to fire a coach (before the end of his contract!) who led his team to the #8 ranking (end-of-regular-season RPI) in the country with the #1 strength of schedule (NCAA computation method) in the country, a #2 finish in arguably the strongest conference in the country, after an OT loss in the conf final to the #1 team in the country.

Ain't happening. Sorry. You want a new coach, your team needs to do a lot worse first.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by Matnum PI »

Homer wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:39 pmNormally, you would hope that Hopkins could get top flight talent based on it's academic reputation, but unfortunately that's not the case. If you're a really good lax player and student, why would you go to hopkins over Ivy League or even Duke? They're more academically prestigious and they also have great lax programs (you could almost argue the same thing for ND and UVA, who both have terrific academic reputations). So if hopkins can't get top recruits based on academics, it can only hope to get them via it's storied lax history. But is that history really enough to sway someone (Morrill?) away from an ivy league education? Evidence would say no.
True and... It's only very recently that Yale has become a National C'ship contender. Penn is still yet to become the same. And P'ton and Cornell haven't been National C'ship contenders in a long time. And winning a national C'ship means a lot to a lot of players. i.e. To go to an Ivy school means going to a school with a great academic reputation but you're sacrificing something in terms of lacrosse. You don't get "both". (For the record, Yale is where they are right now and... It's no clear how long they'll hold onto this mantle.) So, for "both"... JHU is a good option. Arguably, the best option for "both".

* - This whole post comes with a caveat that I'm sure Richmond has a better pre-Med program than Dartmouth and Albany has a better etc. I'm painting with broad brushstrokes (as people tend to do even when making a decision like picking a school). For many, for most, a school's brand is more than a school's reality. this is true for a school's academic brand as well as their lacrosse brand.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by steel_hop »

admin wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 11:14 am
steel_hop wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:06 am Tech question: does anyone know how to insert either an excel spreadsheet with a chart into the Reply box? I have an excel spreadsheet with a very demonstrative chart that shows the trends of how bad the program is.
Steel, send it to us via e-mail (matt at fanlax.com) and I'll create a post within the website.
Thanks on its way.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by steel_hop »

44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:26 pm Image
Throat. Thanks. That's what I was trying to do.

One can look at data in lots of ways and I think this is helpful. I'll note that Daniels came in 2010 so there was already a decline and has continued to drop. Whether that signals his arrival changed support for the program, I think you can say the date is mixed. Though I do know several of the D3 coaches have complained about new restrictions on bring in recruits.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by steel_hop »

CU77 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:11 pm
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 amNo gray or white smoke from the chimney.

They are not going to cause a distraction prior to nor during their hosting of wlax.

After that?
After that, nothing. No admin is going to fire a coach (before the end of his contract!) who led his team to the #8 ranking (end-of-regular-season RPI) in the country with the #1 strength of schedule (NCAA computation method) in the country, a #2 finish in arguably the strongest conference in the country, after an OT loss in the conf final to the #1 team in the country.

Ain't happening. Sorry. You want a new coach, your team needs to do a lot worse first.
This isn't a one year issue as the graph above has demonstrated. It is a continual drop in performance from the team on the field including repeated blow outs in the NCAA.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by admin »

Steel_Hop's graphs. A link to the graphs as well as the actual graphs:

Image

Image
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by xxxxxxx »

Hopper1 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 12:36 pm Seems like there is a lot of confusion on recruit decision making, and how hopkins is viewed by prospective students. The issue is that Hopkins sits in an awkward position, no man's land, where it won't get top flight talent from either of the two big groupings of recruits:

If you're a smart, driven student athlete that wants to get a great job after school and have a great career, you're going to look at a pretty large group of schools, including Hopkins. The entire Ivy League, UVA, UNC, Duke, ND... they're all great schools with great lax programs.

If you're not the most academically adept student and you're more interested in having a well rounded college experience, there are a ton of schools that can provide that too. Hopkins isn't one of them.

Normally, you would hope that Hopkins could get top flight talent based on it's academic reputation, but unfortunately that's not the case. If you're a really good lax player and student, why would you go to hopkins over Ivy League or even Duke? They're more academically prestigious and they also have great lax programs (you could almost argue the same thing for ND and UVA, who both have terrific academic reputations). So if hopkins can't get top recruits based on academics, it can only hope to get them via it's storied lax history. But is that history really enough to sway someone (Morrill?) away from an ivy league education? Evidence would say no.

So what happens? The quality of recruits slowly declines as the lacrosse program loses luster. It's a self fueling fire, and we've been watching it unfold for the better part of 15 years.
If this is true then how did they land the number one recruit in the country last year in Epstein who more than lived up to the expectations? Great players still want to come to Hopkins.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 44WeWantMore »

steel_hop wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 3:28 pm
44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:26 pm Image
Throat. Thanks. That's what I was trying to do.

One can look at data in lots of ways and I think this is helpful. I'll note that Daniels came in 2010 so there was already a decline and has continued to drop. Whether that signals his arrival changed support for the program, I think you can say the date is mixed. Though I do know several of the D3 coaches have complained about new restrictions on bring in recruits.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by Drcthru »

44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:19 pm
CU77 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:11 pm
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 amNo gray or white smoke from the chimney.

They are not going to cause a distraction prior to nor during their hosting of wlax.

After that?
After that, nothing. No admin is going to fire a coach (before the end of his contract!) who led his team to the #8 ranking (end-of-regular-season RPI) in the country with the #1 strength of schedule (NCAA computation method) in the country, a #2 finish in arguably the strongest conference in the country, after an OT loss in the conf final to the #1 team in the country.

Ain't happening. Sorry. You want a new coach, your team needs to do a lot worse first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AFf0ysgNiM
+1 :lol:
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by Drcthru »

steel_hop wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 3:28 pm
44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:26 pm Image
Throat. Thanks. That's what I was trying to do.

One can look at data in lots of ways and I think this is helpful. I'll note that Daniels came in 2010 so there was already a decline and has continued to drop. Whether that signals his arrival changed support for the program, I think you can say the date is mixed. Though I do know several of the D3 coaches have complained about new restrictions on bring in recruits.
Your data show that there was improvement from 2010 to 2015, so how do you blame Daniels? I no fan of his but, be fair.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 44WeWantMore »

Daniels developed Ryan Brown into the best shooter in all of college lacrosse.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by ABClaxfan »

There seems to be a large discussion about why Hopkins fails to attract the best recruits. I don’t think anything about the university it’s is why recruits aren’t coming. I think the main issue is that Hopkins tends to over recruit and bring in 14+ kids in a recruiting class. That can scare away kids because there are so many kids at their position. Schools like Duke recruit only 8-12 kids per class and each kid fits a certain role for them. Hopkins needs to start doing that instead of recruiting anyone who looks good.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by 10stone5 »

Drcthru wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 3:47 pm
44WeWantMore wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:19 pm
CU77 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:11 pm
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 amNo gray or white smoke from the chimney.

They are not going to cause a distraction prior to nor during their hosting of wlax.

After that?
After that, nothing. No admin is going to fire a coach (before the end of his contract!) who led his team to the #8 ranking (end-of-regular-season RPI) in the country with the #1 strength of schedule (NCAA computation method) in the country, a #2 finish in arguably the strongest conference in the country, after an OT loss in the conf final to the #1 team in the country.

Ain't happening. Sorry. You want a new coach, your team needs to do a lot worse first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AFf0ysgNiM
+1 :lol:
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Matnum PI wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:23 pm
Homer wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 1:39 pmNormally, you would hope that Hopkins could get top flight talent based on it's academic reputation, but unfortunately that's not the case. If you're a really good lax player and student, why would you go to hopkins over Ivy League or even Duke? They're more academically prestigious and they also have great lax programs (you could almost argue the same thing for ND and UVA, who both have terrific academic reputations). So if hopkins can't get top recruits based on academics, it can only hope to get them via it's storied lax history. But is that history really enough to sway someone (Morrill?) away from an ivy league education? Evidence would say no.
True and... It's only very recently that Yale has become a National C'ship contender. Penn is still yet to become the same. And P'ton and Cornell haven't been National C'ship contenders in a long time. And winning a national C'ship means a lot to a lot of players. i.e. To go to an Ivy school means going to a school with a great academic reputation but you're sacrificing something in terms of lacrosse. You don't get "both". (For the record, Yale is where they are right now and... It's no clear how long they'll hold onto this mantle.) So, for "both"... JHU is a good option. Arguably, the best option for "both".

* - This whole post comes with a caveat that I'm sure Richmond has a better pre-Med program than Dartmouth and Albany has a better etc. I'm painting with broad brushstrokes (as people tend to do even when making a decision like picking a school). For many, for most, a school's brand is more than a school's reality. this is true for a school's academic brand as well as their lacrosse brand.
ok, I'll bite...you didn't really mean that Richmond has a better pre-med program than Dartmouth???
That was just a hypothetical, right? :D

I agree with your fundamental point that playing for an Ivy pretty inevitably has some sacrifices involved, not the least of which is the amount of practice time allowed. Big handicap.

Another handicap is the reality around who can be admitted and who absolutely can't.

Not to be overly provocative, but Hopkins doesn't face either of those issues (for its D1 teams) and indeed carries a pretty darn good academic brand (rightfully so).
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by jhu06 »

WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 7:20 am
cantrelax wrote: Tue May 14, 2019 5:41 am A friendly suggestion....for 2020 why not retire the "fallout shelter" moniker? Too negative! Start the positive mojo now. You're Hopkins! The greatest program in lacrosse history!

When the big and traditional teams are strong: Jays, Orange, Heels, etc..., the entire landscape is more entertaining. I hope the best for Coach Petro and the Jays in 2020!
I created the Fallout Shelter title for 2019, and it’s a reference to the shuttering of LaxPower. The castoffs landed here.

But sure, it’s not needed for 2020.

We can change it to the Titanic or something.
At least with the titanic there was an end and some were saved. This purgatory or inferno however.
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Re: THE Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

Post by Sagittarius A* »

steel_hop wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 3:32 pm
CU77 wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 2:11 pm
WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus wrote: Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 amNo gray or white smoke from the chimney.

They are not going to cause a distraction prior to nor during their hosting of wlax.

After that?
After that, nothing. No admin is going to fire a coach (before the end of his contract!) who led his team to the #8 ranking (end-of-regular-season RPI) in the country with the #1 strength of schedule (NCAA computation method) in the country, a #2 finish in arguably the strongest conference in the country, after an OT loss in the conf final to the #1 team in the country.

Ain't happening. Sorry. You want a new coach, your team needs to do a lot worse first.
This isn't a one year issue as the graph above has demonstrated. It is a continual drop in performance from the team on the field including repeated blow outs in the NCAA.
Tony Seaman got canned with a year left on his contract. He was making final fours and in 1995 he had the top ranked team for most of the season. The issue is Brody and Mueller are gone. No one at the top seems to care anymore. Who wants a coach who just does well enough to keep his job? After 20 years he’s got to be experiencing some burnout. It’s past time to move on.
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